Business
‘Unprecedented’ demand for jewellery helps retail sales surge in January
Retail sales surged last month in the biggest rise for more than a year and a half as online retailers experienced “unprecedented” demand for jewellery and strong orders of sports supplements amid the New Year health-kick.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said the total volume of retail sales, which measures the quantity bought, rose by 1.8% in January, up from growth of 0.4% in December and the largest increase since May 2024.
The rise was far better than expected, with most experts having forecast only a slight 0.2% increase for last month.
The ONS said online jewellers reported that demand “hit unprecedented levels” last month, with demand booming in recent months as gold prices jumped to record levels above 5,000 US dollars an ounce (£3,718).
Gold and silver have been boosted as investors target “safe haven” assets amid geopolitical uncertainty.
January sales were also helped by New Year resolutions sparking robust demand for sports supplements online, while the ONS added it was a good month for auctions of artwork and antiques.
In the three months to January, sales rose 0.1%, with the ONS revising down its estimate for November to a fall of 0.4% from the 0.1% drop previously recorded.
Experts said the latest data showed consumer confidence had rebounded following autumn budget uncertainty that weighed on retail sales in November.
Online sales rose by 3.4% last month and by 19.6% year-on-year, while non-food shops also fared well with sales up 2.2% against a 1.2% increase for food shops.
Thomas Pugh, chief economist at RSM UK, said the sales rebound last month “suggests that consumers are opening their wallets again as budget uncertainty recedes”.
He added there were “good reasons to be hopeful for retail sales over the rest of the year” as interest rates are expected to come down further, possibly as soon as next month.
Mr Pugh said: “Confidence should continue to improve this year as inflation and interest rates come down and the housing market picks up.
“The big risk is a disruptive (Government) leadership contest which resurrects the spectre of tax rises and dampens confidence again.”
The retail sales performance will give hope of better conditions for retailers after a tough start to the year, with a raft of firms collapsing into administration, such as accessories retailer Claire’s, The Original Factory Shop, Quiz and footwear brand Russell and Bromley.
Soaring costs and subdued consumer spending have taken their toll on the high street.
Julie Palmer, managing partner at BTG, formerly called Begbies Traynor, said: “Whilst the increase at the start of the year is very promising, and perhaps suggests that consumers held off until they fully understood how the budget was going to affect their finances, retailers will want to see consistency and certainty to the landscape going forward.
“Undoubtedly, retailers have had a tough past 12 months and after this bounceback all eyes will be on February’s sales figures to see whether this growth is sustained or temporary.”
Customers near a Ford Maverick pickup truck at a Ford dealership in Richmond, California, US, on Wednesday, April 16, 2025.
David Paul Morris | Bloomberg | Getty Images
DETROIT – The strength of the U.S. automotive industry will face an early test this spring that has nothing to do with cars or trucks.
With tax season starting, industry experts are projecting that some Americans, many of whom have been priced out of the new vehicle market, will use anticipated higher tax returns to purchase a new or used vehicle.
Extra cash on hand could lend a needed boost to an industry that’s suffering from slowing vehicle sales — or it could reveal continued problems for the automotive industry with inflated prices and consumers still reluctant to spend on big-ticket items.
“Their new tax bill is actually going to be less, and they’re going to be getting more in their tax return. It’s going to be a little bit of a surprise, we think, for a lot of potential buyers out there,” said Cox Automotive senior economist Charlie Chesbrough at a recent auto analyst conference.
The average IRS tax refund is up 10.9% so far this season, compared to the same point in 2025, according to early filing data. As of Feb. 6, the average refund amount was $2,290, compared with $2,065 reported about one year prior.
The increases were expected under tax changes by the Trump administration, including the One, Big Beautiful Bill Act signed in July. That legislation removed taxes on overtime and tips and allowed eligible taxpayers to deduct up to $10,000 in annual interest paid on loans for new, U.S.-assembled vehicles purchased, among other adjustments.
Auto dealer stocks
Many of the tax changes were made retroactive to January 2025, which means taxpayers may have withheld more than they will ultimately owe.
“Although it’s a bit of an unknown, it feels like it could be really beneficial to vehicle sales, particularly in that sort of Q1-Q2 timeframe,” said David Oakley, GlobalData manager of Americas vehicle sales forecasts.
March is historically one of the top months for U.S. vehicle sales, especially for used vehicles. The month has represented 9.1% of annual new vehicle sales on average over the past 12 years, according to Cox, trailing only the month of December at 9.3% of sales.
Many of the recent tax changes also assist middle- and higher-income consumers who may decide to pull ahead a vehicle purchase. The industry saw a similar dynamic during the Covid pandemic when the Trump administration issued many Americans $1,400 stimulus checks.
Back then, though, federal interest rates were near zero compared to the current Federal Reserve funds rate of 3.5%–3.75% and inventory of new vehicles was low. Now, with higher borrowing costs, but improved inventory, the equation could be different.
More buyers are agreeing to longer-term loans amid higher financing costs and prices. Putting down extra cash ahead of time can help lower monthly payments, which Carmax’s Edmunds reports reached a record of $772 per month for new vehicles during the fourth quarter.
The average transaction price for new vehicles in the U.S. was hovering around $50,000 toward the end of last year, up 30% from the start of 2020, according to Cox.
“What we don’t know is with consumer finance so stressed already, is that extra money already spent? Whether that’s going to be in the pockets. It’s a really mixed bag out there,” Chesbrough said.
Consumers could choose to use higher tax returns to pay off credit card debt — which nationally stands at a record level of $1.28 trillion, according to a report last week by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York — or replenish their savings after a period of persistent inflation.
U.S. consumer confidence fell to 84.5 in January, the lowest level since May 2014, driven by intense anxiety over high prices and a weakening labor market.
“It’s only confident people, people who feel comfortable about their economic fortunes of the economy of the United States, that are going to be interested in taking out a $40,000 or $50,000 auto loan,” Chesbrough said. “It’s a very difficult situation right now.”
– CNBC’s Kate Dore contributed to this report.
The advisory firm co-founded by Peter Mandelson has collapsed into administration, in the fallout from the scandal surrounding his historical links to paedophile financier Jeffrey Epstein.
Global Counsel said it had stopped trading and that the majority of its roughly 80 UK staff have been made redundant.
Administrators at Interpath have been appointed for the London-based lobbying business, which said it suffered a significant financial impact from a swathe of customers cutting ties with the firm.
This left directors with no choice but to bring in administrators, it said, despite the firm recently saying that Lord Mandelson no longer had any role or influence over it.
It is reported that Barclays, Tesco and Klarna were among those to recently end contracts, while Vodafone put its one under review, after the so-called Epstein files were released by US authorities.
Will Wright, UK chief executive of Interpath and joint administrator, said: “While Global Counsel had grown over the past 15 years to become one of the UK’s leading public affairs consultancies, the rapid and sudden loss of clients over recent weeks has had a monumental impact on the business.”
Steve Absolom, managing director at Interpath and joint administrator, said: “Our immediate focus is on supporting the talented and loyal UK team of Global Counsel employees who, having collectively built a market-leading business, now sadly find themselves having to be made redundant.”
Administrators said they were considering their options for the business and reviewing its assets.
Earlier this month, Global Counsel said it had cut ties with Lord Mandelson and announced the departure of its boss Benjamin Wegg-Prosser.
It stressed that Lord Mandelson no longer had any shareholding, role or association with the company – and no influence over the firm.
Nevertheless, the business continued to come under pressure from its association to the former politician and US ambassador and the ongoing scrutiny.
Lord Mandelson co-founded the firm with Mr Wegg-Prosser in 2010 after Labour lost the general election.
He stepped down from its board about two years ago.
Mr Wegg-Prosser was previously a political adviser and director of strategic communications under former prime minister Tony Blair, before going on to work as a director at a Russian media firm.
Global Counsel has worked with a roster of clients including Palantir, GSK, Vodafone, OpenAI, TikTok and the English Premier League.
The latest tranche of documents in the Epstein files appear to show Lord Mandelson passing potentially market-sensitive information to the financier in 2009, while he was business secretary in Gordon Brown’s government.
His London and Wiltshire homes have been searched by officers as part of the Metropolitan Police’s probe into alleged misconduct in public office.
Last Updated:
PM Modi leads the AI Impact Summit CEO Roundtable, meeting leaders from five countries and top OpenAI, Qualcomm executives to boost AI collaboration.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi has held a roundtable with 16 CEOs of artificial intelligence (AI) and deeptech startups.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi has held a roundtable with 16 CEOs of artificial intelligence (AI) and deeptech startups. PM Modi said discussions at the CEO Roundtable at the AI Impact Summit were insightful and forward-looking and focused on unlocking opportunities for growth. In a post on X, he said it was heartening to see a shared commitment to harnessing AI for progress and sustainable development.
“The CEO Roundtable at the AI Impact Summit brought together various stakeholders from the world of AI, technology and innovation. The discussions were insightful and forward-looking, focused on scaling AI responsibly, strengthening global collaboration and unlocking opportunities for growth,” he said.
Following the industry interaction, the prime minister conducted seven back-to-back bilateral meetings with global leaders and top technology executives, underscoring India’s parallel push on strategic diplomacy and tech leadership.
Among the bilateral talks were meetings with the leaders of Liechtenstein, the Slovak Republic, Sri Lanka, and Mauritius. PM Modi also met the Secretary-General of the United Nations, with conversations expected to have touched on multilateral cooperation, global governance of artificial intelligence, sustainable development priorities, and the role of technology in addressing cross-border challenges.
In addition to government-level engagements, the prime minister also held separate meetings with the chief executives of leading technology companies OpenAI and Qualcomm. These interactions focused on strengthening partnerships in AI innovation, semiconductor development, and research collaborations.
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February 20, 2026, 17:30 IST
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