Business
‘Unprecedented’ demand for jewellery helps retail sales surge in January
Retail sales surged last month in the biggest rise for more than a year and a half as online retailers experienced “unprecedented” demand for jewellery and strong orders of sports supplements amid the New Year health-kick.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said the total volume of retail sales, which measures the quantity bought, rose by 1.8% in January, up from growth of 0.4% in December and the largest increase since May 2024.
The rise was far better than expected, with most experts having forecast only a slight 0.2% increase for last month.
The ONS said online jewellers reported that demand “hit unprecedented levels” last month, with demand booming in recent months as gold prices jumped to record levels above 5,000 US dollars an ounce (£3,718).
Gold and silver have been boosted as investors target “safe haven” assets amid geopolitical uncertainty.
January sales were also helped by New Year resolutions sparking robust demand for sports supplements online, while the ONS added it was a good month for auctions of artwork and antiques.
In the three months to January, sales rose 0.1%, with the ONS revising down its estimate for November to a fall of 0.4% from the 0.1% drop previously recorded.
Experts said the latest data showed consumer confidence had rebounded following autumn budget uncertainty that weighed on retail sales in November.
Online sales rose by 3.4% last month and by 19.6% year-on-year, while non-food shops also fared well with sales up 2.2% against a 1.2% increase for food shops.
Thomas Pugh, chief economist at RSM UK, said the sales rebound last month “suggests that consumers are opening their wallets again as budget uncertainty recedes”.
He added there were “good reasons to be hopeful for retail sales over the rest of the year” as interest rates are expected to come down further, possibly as soon as next month.
Mr Pugh said: “Confidence should continue to improve this year as inflation and interest rates come down and the housing market picks up.
“The big risk is a disruptive (Government) leadership contest which resurrects the spectre of tax rises and dampens confidence again.”
The retail sales performance will give hope of better conditions for retailers after a tough start to the year, with a raft of firms collapsing into administration, such as accessories retailer Claire’s, The Original Factory Shop, Quiz and footwear brand Russell and Bromley.
Soaring costs and subdued consumer spending have taken their toll on the high street.
Julie Palmer, managing partner at BTG, formerly called Begbies Traynor, said: “Whilst the increase at the start of the year is very promising, and perhaps suggests that consumers held off until they fully understood how the budget was going to affect their finances, retailers will want to see consistency and certainty to the landscape going forward.
“Undoubtedly, retailers have had a tough past 12 months and after this bounceback all eyes will be on February’s sales figures to see whether this growth is sustained or temporary.”
Business
Indians cut overseas travel spending to $1.9 billion in March: RBI
Indians sharply cut back on overseas travel spending in March, with remittances for foreign trips dropping by more than $212 million from the previous month, according to Reserve Bank of India data. The fall in outbound travel expenditure came amid rising oil prices linked to the Middle East conflict and persistent pressure on rupee, even as travel remained the single largest component of outward remittances under the Liberalised Remittance Scheme (LRS).In March, travel-related remittances fell to $1.09 billion from $1.3 billion in February and $1.65 billion in January. The decline came at a time when the West Asia conflict pushed oil prices higher and weakened rupee to record lows. Amid the situation, Prime Minister Narendra Modi urged citizens to cut down on foreign travel and adopt measures such as carpooling. Lower overseas travel spending could reduce foreign exchange outflows and help ease pressure on rupee.According to the RBI’s data on outward remittances by resident individuals, travel continued to account for the largest share of money sent abroad under the LRS in March. Total remittances during the month stood at $2.59 billion.The RBI tracks overseas spending across categories including travel, studies abroad, maintenance of close relatives, overseas investments, and property purchases. Under the LRS framework, resident individuals, including minors, can remit up to $250,000 in a financial year for permitted current or capital account transactions.Within the travel segment, the biggest component remained the ‘other travel’ category, which covers holiday spending and international credit card settlements. Indians spent $623.05 million under this category in March, accounting for nearly 57 per cent of total travel-related remittances during the month.Expenditure linked to education travel, including hostel and fee payments, stood at $450.16 million. Business travel, pilgrimage, and overseas medical treatment together accounted for $21.39 million.The data also showed a rise in remittances meant for the maintenance of close relatives abroad. Such transfers increased to $389.78 million in March from $266.18 million in February.At the same time, spending under the ‘studies abroad’ category declined. This category includes payments made for educational services accessed remotely without travelling overseas, such as correspondence courses. Remittances under this head stood at $151.71 million in March, compared to $175.68 million in February and $267.42 million in January.For the financial year 2024-25, Indians remitted a total of $29.56 billion under the LRS. Travel made up the largest portion of this amount at $16.96 billion.The RBI figures further showed that investments by Indians in overseas equity and debt instruments rose significantly to $440.22 million in March from $265.99 million in February.Meanwhile, outward remittances for the purchase of immovable property overseas declined to $38.68 million in March, down from $51.36 million a month earlier.
Business
Stock market this week: Middle East tensions, oil prices, FII flows & more — what will guide Dalal Street
Dalal Street is heading into the new trading week with global uncertainty firmly in focus, as investors keep a close watch on the evolving situation in the Middle East, fluctuations in crude oil prices and the behaviour of foreign investors. Analysts said that sentiment is likely to remain fragile and heavily influenced by developments in negotiations between the United States and Iran, while movements in the rupee, global equities and the US dollar are also expected to shape market direction in the days ahead.Trading activity during the week is also expected to be shaped by the rupee’s movement against the US dollar, while investors continue to assess the impact of global uncertainty on risk appetite. Markets will remain closed on Thursday for Bakri Id.A key trigger for sentiment emerged over the weekend after US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said negotiations between Washington and Tehran had shown some progress, raising expectations that the ongoing conflict in West Asia could move closer to resolution.Ajit Mishra, SVP, Research at Religare Broking Ltd, said investors would closely track developments tied to crude oil, global currencies and bond markets. “This week is expected to remain highly sensitive to global macroeconomic developments and currency movements. Investors will also monitor crude oil prices, developments in US-Iran negotiations, and the trajectory of the US dollar and bond yields, all of which are expected to influence foreign flows and overall risk appetite,” he said.Apart from geopolitical developments, the Reserve Bank’s decision to transfer a record Rs 2.87 lakh crore dividend to the government for the year ended March 2026 is also expected to remain in focus. The announcement comes at a time when rising import costs and supply chain pressures linked to the West Asia conflict continue to weigh on the economy.According to Mishra, market participants are expected to evaluate how the RBI payout could affect liquidity conditions, fiscal flexibility and government spending in the months ahead.Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, said market behaviour in the coming sessions is expected to remain sensitive to fresh headlines surrounding diplomatic negotiations and oil prices. “Markets are expected to remain volatile and heavily headline-driven in the coming week, with investor attention firmly focused on developments surrounding the US–Iran situation, broader diplomatic negotiations and movements in crude oil prices,” he said.“While hopes of a diplomatic breakthrough and easing geopolitical tensions have improved sentiment modestly, investors continue to remain cautious as uncertainty surrounding the final outcome of the negotiations remains elevated,” Ponmudi added.He further said investors are expected to watch institutional flows, global equity trends, macroeconomic indicators and the rupee for further market cues. “With global uncertainty still elevated, market participants are likely to remain selective and cautious despite the recent improvement in sentiment,” he said.Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Investments Limited, said markets would require stronger support factors to build a more constructive setup. According to him, a meaningful decline in crude oil prices, steady foreign institutional investor flows and stable Q1FY27 earnings expectations without major downgrades would be important for sustained momentum.In the previous week, the BSE benchmark index rose 177.36 points, or 0.23%, while the NSE Nifty advanced 75.8 points, or 0.32%.
Business
‘Shameful’ more spent on benefits than jobs for young people, says adviser Alan Milburn
Reforms are needed of the welfare system to tackle the high numbers of young people not in work or education, says Alan Milburn.
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