Politics
Oil Breakout: Crude Surges 13% Above $80 on Middle East War Fears
Global oil markets jolted sharply higher on Monday as escalating conflict in the Middle East triggered fears of supply disruption, pushing Brent crude up 13% to above $82 per barrel.
Futures for US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) also jumped nearly 10%, crossing $70 per barrel in early Asian trading.
The surge follows US and Israeli military strikes on Iran, raising concerns that shipping through the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz could be severely disrupted.
Strait of Hormuz in Focus
Roughly 20% of global oil supply transits through the Strait of Hormuz, making it one of the world’s most critical maritime chokepoints.
While the route is not completely shut, analysts warn that insurance premiums and security risks may effectively halt most commercial traffic.
Major shipping companies have already begun suspending fleet movements through the area.
According to analysts, a prolonged disruption could remove between 8 to 10 million barrels per day (bpd) from global supply — a shock that strategic reserves may struggle to offset.
Amena Bakr of Kpler said oil prices could climb toward $90 per barrel if tensions persist, while some experts caution that prices above $100 cannot be ruled out.
Inflation and Growth Risks
The spike in crude prices has reignited fears of global inflation, particularly in energy-importing nations.
Higher fuel, shipping, and transportation costs could ripple across supply chains, slowing economic growth.
The last time oil crossed $100 per barrel was during the early stages of the Russia-Ukraine war, triggering prolonged inflationary pressure worldwide.
Economists warn that if tensions continue for an extended period, the global economy could face renewed recessionary risks.
US Political Implications
Analysts note that elevated energy prices could pose political challenges in the United States ahead of mid-term elections, especially as President Donald Trump had pledged lower fuel costs.
Some observers suggest Iran may seek to keep crude prices elevated to exert economic pressure amid ongoing geopolitical confrontation.
What’s Next?
Markets remain highly sensitive to developments in the Gulf.
Any formal closure of the Strait of Hormuz or direct targeting of energy infrastructure could push prices significantly higher.
For now, volatility is expected to remain elevated as traders assess the risk of prolonged supply disruption.
DUBAI: The President of the United Arab Emirates, Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, observed iftar at Dubai Mall alongside senior members of the leadership, including the Crown Prince of Dubai, Sheikh Hamdan bin Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum.
The iftar took place within the mall premises with members of the UAE leadership present, underscoring a message of unity, stability and resilience.
The gathering came amid regional tensions, with officials repeatedly stating that the country remains safe and secure.
Video circulating on social media showed the leaders moving through the venue, where shoppers gathered and waved as they passed.
Many visitors appeared surprised to see the UAE leadership at the location.
In one widely shared moment, a visitor from Ghana expressed excitement after meeting the President, describing the encounter as memorable. The President exchanged brief words with him and wished him an enjoyable stay.
The public presence drew attention inside the busy shopping destination, often described as one of the world’s largest malls.
The Iranian armed forces have started a new wave of extensive drone and missile attacks on targets in the Israeli-occupied territories and US assets in regional countries.
A late Monday statement from the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) said that the 11th wave of offensive attacks under Operation True Promise 4 had been launched by the naval and aerospace units of the elite force.
The statement said the “extensive and high-density operation” had targeted American intelligence centers and military support warehouses in the Persian Gulf region, the Israeli communications industries complex in the occupied city of Beersheba, as well as 20 locations in the occupied regions of Tel Aviv, West al-Quds, and Galilee.
It said the “brave sons of Iran’s armed forces” had used more than 700 drones and hundreds of missiles to hit 60 strategic targets and 500 military locations linked to the United States and the Israeli regime since the start of the US-Israeli aggression on Iran on Saturday.
The statement said the number of missiles and drones and the success rate of the attacks had far outpaced records seen during the 12-day war with Israel and the US in June 2025.
The IRGC said recent “brutal and terrorist” attacks on Iran that targeted citizens in hospitals, schools, and offices of the national media service (IRIB) had further strengthened their resolve and determination to pursue an all-out war against the enemies.
The IRGC has been carrying out retaliatory attacks on US military assets across the region and on targets in the Israeli-occupied territories since Saturday, when the US and Israel started the unprovoked war of aggression against Iran and assassinated Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei.
The Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) says the fate of Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu is uncertain following “purposeful and surprise” attacks on his office and the residence of the regime’s air force commander.
In a statement on Monday, the IRGC said Iranian Armed Forces heavily attacked the office of Israel’s criminal prime minister and the residence of commander of the Israeli air force.
They were hit during “purposeful and surprise” attacks by Kheybar missiles, the elite force stated.
According to the statement, the 10th phase of Iran’s successful missile attacks on occupied territories focuses on the Israeli regime’s premises.
The IRGC said it would later announce the achievements of the attacks and provide further information.
The United States and Israel launched a joint war of aggression against Iran early on Saturday, assassinating Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei and several senior military commanders before attacking military and civilian sites across the country.
Iranian armed forces have responded with massive missile and drone strikes, hitting strategic targets deep inside the Israeli-occupied territories as well as American military bases scattered across the region.
Iranian authorities say the retaliatory attacks will continue as long as necessary and that it will be the Islamic Republic that will decide when and how the war will end.
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