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Oil Breakout: Crude Surges 13% Above $80 on Middle East War Fears

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Oil Breakout: Crude Surges 13% Above  on Middle East War Fears



Global oil markets jolted sharply higher on Monday as escalating conflict in the Middle East triggered fears of supply disruption, pushing Brent crude up 13% to above $82 per barrel.

Futures for US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) also jumped nearly 10%, crossing $70 per barrel in early Asian trading.

The surge follows US and Israeli military strikes on Iran, raising concerns that shipping through the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz could be severely disrupted.

Strait of Hormuz in Focus

Roughly 20% of global oil supply transits through the Strait of Hormuz, making it one of the world’s most critical maritime chokepoints.

While the route is not completely shut, analysts warn that insurance premiums and security risks may effectively halt most commercial traffic.

Major shipping companies have already begun suspending fleet movements through the area.

According to analysts, a prolonged disruption could remove between 8 to 10 million barrels per day (bpd) from global supply — a shock that strategic reserves may struggle to offset.

Amena Bakr of Kpler said oil prices could climb toward $90 per barrel if tensions persist, while some experts caution that prices above $100 cannot be ruled out.

Inflation and Growth Risks

The spike in crude prices has reignited fears of global inflation, particularly in energy-importing nations.

Higher fuel, shipping, and transportation costs could ripple across supply chains, slowing economic growth.

The last time oil crossed $100 per barrel was during the early stages of the Russia-Ukraine war, triggering prolonged inflationary pressure worldwide.

Economists warn that if tensions continue for an extended period, the global economy could face renewed recessionary risks.

 US Political Implications

Analysts note that elevated energy prices could pose political challenges in the United States ahead of mid-term elections, especially as President Donald Trump had pledged lower fuel costs.

Some observers suggest Iran may seek to keep crude prices elevated to exert economic pressure amid ongoing geopolitical confrontation.

What’s Next?

Markets remain highly sensitive to developments in the Gulf.

Any formal closure of the Strait of Hormuz or direct targeting of energy infrastructure could push prices significantly higher.

For now, volatility is expected to remain elevated as traders assess the risk of prolonged supply disruption.

 



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Iran says has ‘no choice’ but to fight back, holds no enmity toward American people

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Iran says has ‘no choice’ but to fight back, holds no enmity toward American people



Iran’s foreign ministry spokesman says confronting US-Israeli threats leaves the country no option but military retaliation, while stressing it has no issue with the American people.

In an interview with the US public radio (NPR) published on Sunday, Esmaeil Baghaei discussed the country’s positions on the current developments following the recent US-Israeli aggression.

“This is an unjust war imposed on our nation, and we have no other choice other than fighting against this injustice,” he said.

He emphasized that these military actions are unwarranted and unprovoked, and pointed out they arrived while the US and Iran were making progress in diplomatic negotiations over nuclear issues.

Baghaei stated that the conflict is the United States administration’s preferred war.

He noted that according to the Omani mediator’s remarks on Friday, a deal was close, and Iran was slated to meet the American delegation in Vienna the previous day to discuss technical details—emphasizing that Iran did not initiate the war.

He referred to the assassination of the Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei, saying, “he was not only a political leader. He was also a high-ranking religious jurist with tens of millions of followers, even outside Iran, across the region.”

In response to a question on who is leading the country now, the Iranian diplomat explained that an interim council now governs Iran, composed of the head of the judiciary, the president, and a member of the council of experts, which will be responsible for electing a new leader.

Responding to a question about whether Iran’s leadership can withstand aggressive US sanctions, President Trump’s calls for regime change, Israeli pressure and domestic opposition, Baghaei said a foreign power cannot dictate changes to a nation’s system of governance.

He added that Iranians have historically united against foreign aggression and domination, fighting to protect their freedom, independence, dignity and sovereignty.

Reacting to the death of at least three Americans, Baghaei said “I have said many times that we have no problem with the American people. And we believe that this is not their war.”

 



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First US fighter downed in past 27 years: Iran Armed Forces hit F-15 near Kuwait border

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First US fighter downed in past 27 years: Iran Armed Forces hit F-15 near Kuwait border



Iranian Armed Forces have shot down an advanced US F-15 fighter jet near the border with Kuwait – the first downing of an American fighter jet in the past 27 years.

“An F-15 fighter jet [belonging] to the intruding US army which intended to attack the country has been targeted by the Islamic Republic of Iran’s Air Defense and brought down,” Iran’s Khatam Al-Anbiya Air Defense Base said in a statement on Monday.

It added that the jet’s debris has been crashed in Kuwaiti soil.

Kuwait’s Defense Ministry on Monday confirmed the jet’s crash with its video footage widely being circulated in global media.

An American F-117 fighter jet was downed by former Yugoslavia during the Kosovo war some 27 years ago.

No American fighter jet has been officially destroyed since then despite significant progress made in airplane technology.

Iranian retaliatory attacks comes amid three days of aggression against the country, which has killed at least 555 people, including more than 145 children in a strike on an elementary school in Hormozgan Province in addition to Iranian officials, according to the Red Crescent Society.

The IRGC and the Army have targeted strategic sites in the Israeli-occupied territories as well as US-operated bases across West Asia, including the Fifth Fleet in Bahrain, along with key installations in Qatar and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) for their role in supporting aggression against Iran.



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Iran will hold no negotiations with US: Top security official

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Iran will hold no negotiations with US: Top security official



Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) Ali Larijani says the Islamic Republic will hold no negotiations with the United States after Washington and Tel Aviv waged war against the country.

Larijani made the remark in a post on his X account on Monday in response to a report by The Wall Street Journal claiming that he had started new efforts to resume talks with the US.

The US and Israel started a fresh round of aerial aggression on Iran on Saturday, some eight months after they carried out unprovoked attacks on the country.

The Saturday attacks led to the martyrdom of Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei.

The Iranian administration on Sunday declared 40 days of public mourning and seven days of holidays following the Leader’s martyrdom.

The aggression was launched as Tehran and Washington had held three rounds of indirect negotiations in the Omani capital of Muscat and the Swiss city of Geneva and planned to open technical talks in Vienna, Austria, last Monday.

Iran began to swiftly retaliate against the strikes by launching barrages of missile and drone attacks on the Israeli-occupied territories as well as on US bases in regional countries.

On the second day of the joint aggression, US President Donald Trump claimed that Iranian authorities wanted to hold talks with Washington.

In another post on X, Larijani said the US president had caused turmoil in the region as a result of his “pipe dreams” and is now concerned about more losses on the American servicemen.

The top Iranian security official added that Trump changed the self-made slogan of “America First” to “Israel First” through his illusion-driven performance and sacrificed the American soldiers for the sake of Israel’s ambitions.

Larijani emphasized that the American soldiers and their families are bearing the brunt of Trump’s lie mongering and his ill nature.

“Today, the Iranian nation is defending itself. Iran’s Armed Forces have not launched any aggression,” the SNSC secretary pointed out, emphasizing it was not Iran that initiated the war.

Iran has reaffirmed its policy to promote peace in the region but pledged that it will not hesitate to defend its territorial integrity against any act of aggression.

Iranian officials have also already called on the country’s neighbors not to allow their soil to be used by the US and Israel for any attack against the Islamic Republic, warning to retaliate.



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