War in the Middle East is having an uneven impact on global economies but “all roads” lead to higher prices and slower economic growth, an influential economic body has warned.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF), which advises on policy and gives financial aid to member countries, said it was stepping up support, especially to the most vulnerable economies.

The war’s impact is “both global and highly uneven”, with some countries likely to face a renewed cost-of-living squeeze, IMF economists wrote in a blog post on Monday.

Large energy importers in Asia and Europe are bearing the brunt of higher fuel prices and input costs due to the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which has caused shipments of oil and gas to grind to a halt.

Countries like the UK and Italy have been particularly exposed by their reliance on gas-fired power, while France and Spain were relatively protected by their greater use of nuclear and renewable energy sources, according to the IMF.

The organisation also warned of mounting concerns about food prices shooting up because of disruption to shipments of fertiliser from the Middle East.

“The interruption of crop-nutrient supplies from the Gulf comes just as planting season begins in the Northern Hemisphere, threatening yields and harvests through the year and pushing food prices higher,” it said.

The most vulnerable countries will “bear the heaviest burden”, with people in low-income countries spending a bigger proportion of their incomes on food.

“Although the war could shape the global economy in different ways, all roads lead to higher prices and slower growth,” the IMF warned.

The ultimate impact depends on how long the war lasts and how much damage it does to infrastructure and supply chains, but the world may “settle somewhere in between – tensions linger, energy stays costly, and inflation proves hard to tame”, it wrote.

The IMF said it was supporting member countries, of which it has around 190, with policy advice and, where needed and co-ordinated with the international community, financial assistance.

Olly Harrison, who farms in Tarbock, on Merseyside, said he bought his fertiliser for a good price last year and now believes – due to a wet and cold spring and limited growing days left, added with the costs of diesel for machinery – he may be better off not planting.

India’s industrial production grew 5.2 per cent in February, driven largely by an improvement in manufacturing output, according to official data released on Monday.Factory output, measured by the Index of Industrial Production (IIP), had expanded 2.7 per cent in February 2025, as per the official statement.Data released by the National Statistics Office (NSO) also showed that industrial growth for January 2026 has been revised upward to 5.1 per cent from the earlier provisional estimate of 4.8 per cent.The manufacturing sector, which forms the bulk of the index, recorded a growth of 6 per cent in February 2026, compared with 2.8 per cent in the year-ago period, supporting the overall expansion.Mining output growth improved marginally to 3.1 per cent from 1.6 per cent a year earlier, while power generation rose 2.3 per cent against a 3.6 per cent increase in February 2025.According to the official data, the IIP index stood at 159.0 in February 2026 compared to 151.1 in the corresponding month last year.Within manufacturing, 14 out of 23 industry groups recorded positive growth. Key contributors included “manufacture of basic metals” (13.2 per cent), “manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers” (14.9 per cent), and “manufacture of machinery and equipment n.e.c.” (10.2 per cent).In use-based classification, infrastructure and construction goods, intermediate goods and capital goods emerged as the top contributors to growth. Capital goods output rose 12.5 per cent, while infrastructure/construction goods grew 11.2 per cent and intermediate goods by 7.7 per cent.Consumer durables output expanded 7.3 per cent, whereas consumer non-durables contracted 0.6 per cent during the month.During the April-February period of FY26, industrial production growth remained flat at 4.1 per cent compared to the same period last year.