Sports
Push the panic button: 12 Week 3 games, each with its own level of crisis
Week 1 had headliners for the casuals. Week 2 had rivalry games and loads of thrillers for the hardcores. In Week 3, we attempt to split the difference. This week gives us high-stakes helmet games (Texas A&M-Notre Dame, Georgia-Tennessee, Florida-LSU) and rivalry games both bitter (Pitt-West Virginia) and, sometimes, silly (Ole Miss-Arkansas). But most of all, it gives us PANIC.
Notre Dame is 0-1 and won’t have a ton of quality win opportunities to overcome a potential 0-2 start. Clemson and Georgia haven’t looked the part yet and could be severely punished if they don’t shift into gear. Supposed Big 12 favorites Arizona State and Kansas State are a combined 2-3 and can’t wait much longer to turn into the teams they were supposed to be. And both Florida and Virginia Tech played their coaches onto incredibly hot seats with jarring second-half collapses last week. So many fan bases are either fuming or about to be.
The first two weeks were fun in different ways. Now it’s time to get anxious. Here’s everything you need to follow in Week 3.
All times are Eastern, and all games are Saturday unless otherwise noted.
Jump to a panic tier:
Hot seat | Time to look good
CFP hopefuls | Rivalries | Facing an upstart
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Week 3 playlist | Small school showcase
Hot seat panic
Between Nov. 16 and last Saturday, Florida went 5-0, beating LSU, Ole Miss and Florida State in successive weeks, allowing just 10.4 points per game and, presumably, playing head coach Billy Napier off of the hot seat.
Then the Gators lost to USF. They settled for field goals early and gave up just enough big plays (and horrid penalties) late to lose 18-16. It happened the way a lot of upsets happen, and USF might turn out to be an awesome team. But Florida now faces an absurd run featuring trips to No. 3 LSU, No. 5 Miami and No. 16 Texas A&M, plus a visit from No. 7 Texas, in the next month. Napier went from reasonably safe to all but done in a heartbeat.
He’s not alone, at least. Starting the season against South Carolina and Vanderbilt, Brent Pry’s Virginia Tech got outscored by a combined 48-3 in two horrendous second halves. The Hokies have plummeted to 74th in SP+. Unlike Florida, they have a rebound opportunity with home games against Old Dominion and Wofford, but ODU has been awfully interesting to start the season.
First things first: If LSU had played USF instead of Louisiana Tech last week, the Tigers could have been in trouble too. The LSU offense no-showed, averaging just 4.9 yards per play, and with the run game struggling (as it did for much of 2024), quarterback Garrett Nussmeier made some shaky decisions, taking three sacks with a pick and averaging a dire 4.8 yards per dropback. If Florida responds well to an angry week in Gainesville, don’t be surprised if we get an upset.
Until we see Florida’s response, however, nothing else matters. Quarterback DJ Lagway is still kicking off rust after an injury-plagued offseason and is averaging just 9.7 yards per completion; the Florida run defense could very well dominate, but it’s the pass defense that matters against LSU, and the Gators rank just 91st in yards allowed per dropback. After games against Long Island and USF, that’s pretty foreboding, no matter how iffy Nussmeier looked last week.
Current line: LSU -7.5 | SP+ projection: LSU by 2.8 | FPI projection: LSU by 3.0
I don’t pretend to be a body language expert, but when Vanderbilt scored to start the second half against Virginia Tech last week, the Hokies’ offense had just about the worst body language I’ve ever seen heading out onto the field. It was bad enough that I actually noticed it and made a mental note, and it happened about right here on the game’s win probability chart.
The Hokies offense didn’t score another point, and the Hokies defense didn’t make another stop. Tech will probably get back on track this week, but Old Dominion landed some solid punches early against Indiana in Week 1 and has overachieved against SP+ projections by a combined 46.4 points in its first two games. ODU quarterback Colton Joseph is making big plays with his arm and legs, and if the Monarchs can go up early, things could get very, very awkward at Lane Stadium.
Current line: Hokies -6.5 | SP+ projection: Hokies by 7.0 | FPI projection: Hokies by 3.8
‘It’s time to look like you were supposed to look’ panic
Georgia and South Carolina are unbeaten, and Clemson has only lost to the No. 3 team in the country. Arizona State suffered a heartbreaking loss to Mississippi State last week but could obviously still win the Big 12. All four of these teams were in the preseason top 15, and three still are. If they start looking like the teams they were supposed to be, they’ll all have good seasons with solid playoff chances.
If they don’t turn it on this week, however, things will get very complicated. They’ve combined to underachieve against SP+ projections by an average of 10.4 points per game. Georgia has barely made any big plays, Clemson’s offense has been shockingly inefficient, and South Carolina is 112th in points per drive and has been bailed out by punt returns and defensive touchdowns. Arizona State hasn’t been able to throw or defend the pass. On Saturday, all four teams play opponents that could absolutely beat them if they don’t find their respective A-games.
Georgia sleepwalked through a 28-6 win over Austin Peay last week on a disjointed, stormy afternoon in Athens. The Bulldogs had more turnovers (two) than 20-yard gains (one), and while APSU looks like an awfully strong FCS team, this was still one of Georgia’s most flawed performances in quite a while.
Does that matter? Georgia basically treats the season like an NFL regular season, knowing it’s talented enough to avoid any real missteps and aiming to peak in December. If the Dawgs flip the switch and roll over Tennessee, it won’t surprise a single soul in Neyland Stadium. They’ve won eight straight in the series, after all, and have won in their past four trips to Knoxville by an average of 41-10. But it’s hard to have much confidence in a Georgia offense that showed next to no explosiveness against Marshall and APSU.
And it’s not as if the offense hasn’t tried. Gunner Stockton has thrown seven passes at least 20 yards downfield, but he has completed just one. Granted, he has completed 76% of all his other passes, and Georgia has been pretty efficient. But the big-play spigot needs to open pretty quickly.
New Tennessee quarterback Joey Aguilar has overseen plenty of big plays to date, going 39-for-59 for 535 yards, five TDs, no interceptions and no sacks. He has benefited from a strong run game, however, and he might not be able to lean on that Saturday: Georgia has allowed just 2.2 yards per carry (not including sacks), with linebackers Gabe Harris Jr. and Raylen Wilson flying to the ball. Tennessee could find itself behind schedule pretty frequently, and like Stockton, Aguilar will face his biggest test of the season by far.
Current line: Dawgs -3.5 | SP+ projection: Vols by 1.3 | FPI projection: Vols by 0.3
We’re working with tiny samples, but the difference between preseason expectations and early-season quarterback production has been dramatic: The top five QBs on the preseason Heisman odds lists are currently 35th (Garrett Nussmeier), 56th (Arch Manning), 77th (Drew Allar), 82nd (LaNorris Sellers) and 104th (Cade Klubnik) in Total QBR.
For younger players like Manning and Sellers, a slow start might make sense. But Klubnik was supposed to be the high-floor veteran who allowed Clemson to benefit from everyone else’s inexperience. With unproven running backs and an already banged up O-line, however, he has been a shadow of his 2024 self.
After games against one of the best (LSU) and worst (Troy) defenses on the schedule, Klubnik’s stats are down across the board. He’s getting blitzed constantly, he’s providing no threat with his legs, and Clemson’s passing success rate has plummeted from 37th to 105th. Either that changes now, or Clemson’s 2025 goals start to fall apart. A loss Saturday would almost clinch that the Tigers have to win out to reach the College Football Playoff.
Georgia Tech is 2-0, with a defense that has overachieved twice against SP+ projections and an offense that was nearly perfect last week against Gardner-Webb despite forever-injured quarterback Haynes King sitting out. King should be good (enough) to go Saturday, and though the Clemson defense could disrupt the Tech line of scrimmage, the Yellow Jackets still might score enough to win if Clemson’s offense doesn’t start looking like it was supposed to look.
Current line: Clemson -2.5 | SP+ projection: Tech by 0.6 | FPI projection: Tech by 1.3
First things first: If Vicari Swain wants to make a Heisman push by doing stuff like this all season, I’m game.
1:05
House call! Vicari Swain scores on 65-yard punt return
House call! Vicari Swain scores on 65-yard punt return
Swain has scored on three of five punt returns in 2025, and it has created a strange balance: Including a fumble return score, South Carolina’s defense and special teams have scored as many touchdowns (four) as its offense. The Gamecocks rank 108th in offensive success rate, and LaNorris Sellers is taking even more sacks (12.0% of dropbacks) with less deep-ball payoff.
Vanderbilt has, without question, been the better of these two teams thus far. The Commodores beat Virginia Tech by 24 in Blacksburg (compared to South Carolina’s 13-point, punt return-aided win on a neutral field), and they rank ninth in yards per dropback (10.2) and sixth in yards allowed per dropback (3.1). The Commodores scored more TDs in the second half against Virginia Tech (five) than the Gamecock offense has managed in four halves.
We don’t draw permanent conclusions after two games, but either South Carolina’s offense establishes a rhythm Saturday or the Gamecocks begin a very humbling stretch. They’re already projected underdogs in four of their next six games. Lose this one as a favorite, and you can probably kiss playoff hopes goodbye.
Current line: SC -3.5 | SP+ projection: SC by 9.5 | FPI projection: SC by 4.0
Last year, Arizona State survived a number of early close calls, then looked spectacular late. But the god of close games is fickle, and the Sun Devils dropped a thriller in Starkville last week.
They could obviously still reach the CFP by winning the Big 12, but with games against Baylor, TCU, Utah and Texas Tech on the horizon, they must start looking the part, and on Saturday night, they face an explosive Texas State team that nearly took them down last year. Bobcats backs Lincoln Pare and Jaylen Jenkins are averaging 8.1 yards per carry, and receivers Beau Sparks and Chris Dawn Jr. are averaging 20.8 yards per catch.
ASU should run the ball well against a shaky Texas State defensive front, but Sam Leavitt — currently 92nd in Total QBR with a 57% completion rate, three INTs and four sacks — has somehow become even more reliant on one-man receiving corps Jordyn Tyson, and the ASU secondary ranks 85th in yards allowed per dropback. ASU nearly overcame a terrible start in Starkville, but if TXST’s offense gets rolling early like Mississippi State’s did, it might never slow down.
Current line: ASU -18.5 | SP+ projection: ASU by 11.1 | FPI projection: ASU by 8.3
‘Probably don’t want to lose if you have CFP hopes’ panic
We can’t call many Week 3 games true must-wins in the CFP era, but Notre Dame is 0-1, Alabama has already laid one egg, and preseason Big 12 contender Kansas State is 1-2. If these three games aren’t must-win, they’re made of a pretty must-win-like substance.
Notre Dame gave us a pretty conflicting impression in Week 1’s narrow loss at Miami. Quarterback CJ Carr was decent but unspectacular in his debut start, while the defense limited Miami’s big-play potential but allowed a 49% success rate, which means it currently ranks 126th in that category. The offensive and defensive lines performed worse than expected, and the run game was first underwhelming and then forgotten.
The Irish had a week off to prepare for a strong Texas A&M team that has underachieved a hair because of defensive breakdowns. Quarterback Marcel Reed has furthered his brand of nearly mistake-free ball (zero INTs and one sack in 74 dropbacks), and running backs Le’Veon Moss and Rueben Owens II are averaging 6.6 yards per carry. The defense has knocked opponents off-schedule well, but it has indeed been hit by eight gains of 20-plus yards.
The Aggies scored 40-something and allowed 20-something against both UTSA and Utah State. Notre Dame isn’t much of a “track meets” kind of team, and Carr threw almost all of his passes close to the line of scrimmage against Miami. But he connected on both of his long passes. Might the Irish get aggressive and test A&M’s glitchiness?
It’s easy to see this game becoming one of trench warfare, though random chunk plays could tell the tale. One way or another, the Irish really do need a win here. Even if they were to lose and then win out to finish 10-2 — not a given considering how good future opponents like USC and Arkansas have looked thus far — their résumé might feature only one or two wins over ranked teams, and they could find themselves at the bottom of a pile of 10-2 teams. That’s really not where you want to be.
Current line: Irish -6.5 | SP+ projection: Irish by 2.8 | FPI projection: Irish by 5.6
In 2003, Kansas State suffered an early three-game losing streak, then won its first Big 12 title two months later. You can overcome a slow start, but K-State has already almost run out of runway. The Wildcats have dropped three-point heartbreakers to Iowa State (excusable) and Army (less so) and barely beat North Dakota in between.
The run game has been dreadful without injured star Dylan Edwards — he is cleared to play Friday — and while quarterback Avery Johnson has been decent, only opponents are making big plays: 24% of opponents’ completions have gained 20-plus yards (124th nationally).
Arizona, on the other hand, has been spectacular, overachieving against SP+ projections by a combined 34.0 points and playing like 2024’s ridiculously disappointing campaign never happened. Noah Fifita is averaging nearly 18 yards per completion, and the defense has picked off five passes while allowing just two completions over 12 yards.
Once again: We don’t draw conclusions after two weeks, but Arizona has performed infinitely better than K-State so far. If that continues Friday night, K-State shifts to just trying to go 6-6 and Arizona announces itself as a Big 12 contender.
Current line: K-State -1.5 | SP+ projection: Arizona by 2.9 | FPI projection: Arizona by 2.6
Is it a stretch to put Alabama in this section when the Crimson Tide are three-touchdown favorites? Probably. But I wanted to highlight that the Crimson Tide have been maybe the single-most volatile team in the country through two weeks, first underachieving against SP+ projections by 28.3 points in a dismally unprepared loss to Florida State, then winning nearly every play and overachieving by 41.4 points in a 73-0 win over Louisiana-Monroe.
Wisconsin might not be amazing this year, but the Badgers are closer to FSU than ULM, at least on defense. The Badgers have allowed one drive over 50 yards in two games — yes, against Miami (Ohio) and Middle Tennessee, but still — and they’ve created serious havoc, ranking fourth in sack rate and 15th in stuff rate. Quarterback Danny O’Neil has been efficient filling in for the injured Billy Edwards Jr., but the Wisconsin offense probably won’t threaten Bama much. The defense will force the Tide to put in a shift, however, and prove that last week’s performance was far closer to what we should expect from Bama moving forward.
Current line: Bama -21.5 | SP+ projection: Bama by 17.1 | FPI projection: Bama by 15.7
‘This rivalry is full of devastating losses’ panic
The Backyard Brawl is pretty in-your-face about how awesome and wild it is. I mean, “Brawl” is right there in the title. It’s loud and brash enough that you have almost no choice but to think, “Tell me again why we aren’t playing this game every year?” about once per quarter. Rich Rodriguez’s return to WVU has brought a wave of sentimentality … and memories of 2007, when Pitt scored one of the most devastating rivalry upsets of all time.
(No, but seriously, tell me again why we’re not playing this game every year?)
Arkansas-Ole Miss, meanwhile, doesn’t really even have a name and wasn’t played annually until the 1980s. You can probably find plenty of Razorbacks and Rebels fans who don’t even consider this a true rivalry. Fine. But in the past 14 years alone, this game has produced scores of 53-52, 52-51, 38-37, 37-33, 34-30 and 30-27. There aren’t many games I look forward to more, and I can call it whatever I want.
WVU’s Week 2 loss to Ohio — and the subsequent loss of running back Jahiem White to season-ending injury — might have lowered the stakes here, but Milan Puskar Stadium will be humming all the same. Pitt has come out of the gate firing, beating Duquesne and Central Michigan by a combined 106-26 with an explosive offense and dominant run defense. The WVU defense has been better than I expected, though, and it will take only a couple of turnovers to flip this one in the home team’s favor.
Current line: Pitt -7.5 | SP+ projection: Pitt by 4.5 | FPI projection: Pitt by 2.2
Ole Miss survived one pain-in-the-butt matchup, exacting a bit of 2024 revenge with a 30-23 win over Kentucky last week. Quarterback Austin Simmons is establishing his footing, the secondary looks great, and the Rebels are projected favorites in all but one remaining game. We could be watching a playoff plan come together, but a trio of home games against Arkansas, Tulane and LSU in the next three weeks could provide any number of plot twists.
Arkansas is up to 21st in SP+ following two cupcake wins (Hogs 108, Alabama A&M and Arkansas State 21). Taylen Green is averaging nearly 10 yards per dropback and 13 yards per (non-sack) carry. But the Razorbacks were in the top 30 last September, too, before things went off the rails. If they have staying power this time, they could deliver us another very silly Rebs-Hogs game.
Current line: Rebels -6.5 | SP+ projection: Rebels by 10.4 | FPI projection: Rebels by 6.6
‘Don’t want the in-state upstart to ruin our great start’ panic
If you don’t knock USF out early, you will pay for it. Boise State drove into Bulls territory on four of its first six possessions but turned the ball over twice, scored once and eventually got done in by a big-play deluge in a 34-7 loss. Florida carved up a bend-don’t-break defense early but settled for three field goals, then threw an interception in its next trip across the 50. Given enough opportunities, USF hit on a couple of chunk plays and stole an 18-16 win.
USF is allowing opponents to win the efficiency battle this year but is preventing big plays and eventually making lots of its own. This formula has prompted a pair of ranked wins.
Miami’s offense is wonderfully efficient. Through two games, including one against Notre Dame, the Hurricanes are 15th in rushing success rate and ninth in passing success rate. Carson Beck‘s arm and the legs of Mark Fletcher Jr. and CharMar Brown are keeping them on schedule beautifully, and they have a No. 5 ranking to show for it. They haven’t made a ton of big plays, though, and the defense has given up gains of 20-plus yards on 5.5% of snaps (70th nationally). Surely the USF formula isn’t going to work again, right?
Current line: Miami -17.5 | SP+ projection: Miami by 14.0 | FPI projection: Miami by 6.0
Week 3 chaos superfecta
We are unstoppable! We’re once again using this space to attempt to will chaos into existence, looking at four carefully curated games with pretty big point spreads and mashing them together into a much more upset-friendly number, and thanks to USF’s upset of Florida, we’re two-for-two on the season after going 10-for-14 in 2024.
What’s better than two-for-two? Three-for-three! Let’s take down another ranked team. SP+ says there’s only a 48% chance that No. 5 Miami (81% vs. USF), No. 17 Ole Miss (74% vs. Arkansas), No. 19 Alabama (86% vs. Wisconsin) and No. 24 Auburn (90% vs. South Alabama) all win. Adjust your chaos meters accordingly.
Week 3 playlist
Here are some more, less panicky games you should pay attention to if you want to get the most out of the weekend, from both information and entertainment perspectives.
Friday evening
Colorado at Houston (7:30 p.m., ESPN). Houston has allowed nine total points and 3.0 yards per play in two games, and Colorado is evidently trying to figure out which of three different quarterbacks is the way forward. The Buffaloes are projected favorites in only two more games this season, so now would be a good time to kick into gear.
Current line: Houston -4.5 | SP+ projection: Houston by 3.3 | FPI projection: Houston by 1.9
Early Saturday
No. 4 Oregon at Northwestern (noon, Fox). Northwestern has defended the pass well this year, but (A) Oregon’s passing game is an upgrade over those of Tulane and Western Illinois, and (B) NU hasn’t really done anything else well. Oregon has done everything well thus far. This one will need some serious upset magic to be interesting in the second half. (But hey, at least Northwestern’s glorious and temporary Lake Michigan stadium will get plenty of screen time.)
Current line: Ducks -28.5 | SP+ projection: Ducks by 27.1 | FPI projection: Ducks by 23.1
No. 13 Oklahoma at Temple (noon, ESPN2). Only Oregon, USF and (in one game) TCU have overachieved against SP+ projections more than Temple thus far; coach K.C. Keeler is making an immediate impact in Philadelphia, and quarterback Evan Simon is actually second nationally in Total QBR. It’s probably a bridge too far to ask the Owls to scare the visiting Sooners, however.
Current line: OU -23.5 | SP+ projection: OU by 24.1 | FPI projection: OU by 12.3
Memphis at Troy (noon, ESPNU). Memphis is the highest-ranked Group of 5 team in SP+, but if Tae Meadows and the Troy run game get rolling, the Trojans and what should be a pretty spicy home crowd could make this one tough. (See: Tulane’s narrow escape against South Alabama last week.)
Current line: Memphis -3.5 | SP+ projection: Memphis by 11.8 | FPI projection: Memphis by 6.9
Louisiana at No. 25 Missouri (1 p.m., ESPN+). Missouri scored a wild rivalry win over Kansas last week, but seven of the Tigers’ last 10 games are projected within one score. This isn’t one of them, but Louisiana should be able to test Mizzou on the line of scrimmage, at least, and make the Tigers sweat a bit the week before South Carolina comes to town.
Current line: Mizzou -27.5 | SP+ projection: Mizzou by 25.3 | FPI projection: Mizzou by 23.5
Saturday afternoon
USC at Purdue (3:30 p.m., CBS). Purdue is 2-0 and has established a nice offensive rhythm, albeit against cakey competition. But now begins a brutal stretch: Eight of its final 10 games are against teams ranked 33rd or better in SP+, including five ranked 18th or better (including USC). Can Barry Odom’s Boilermakers spring a surprise?
Current line: USC -20.5 | SP+ projection: USC by 19.7 | FPI projection: USC by 19.9
Oregon State at No. 21 Texas Tech (3:30 p.m., Fox). Oof. Oregon State suffered a devastating collapse in last week’s 36-27 loss to Fresno State. Now the Beavers head to West Texas to face a Texas Tech team that has outscored its first two opponents 129-21. We don’t know what the Red Raiders do wrong yet because they’ve done almost nothing wrong. What can OSU do to slow them down?
Current line: Tech -23.5 | SP+ projection: Tech by 27.0 | FPI projection: Tech by 21.3
No. 14 Iowa State at Arkansas State (4 p.m., ESPN2). Iowa State has secured a pair of quality wins over rivals Kansas State and Iowa, but the Cyclones haven’t really gotten their run game going yet. Now’s the chance. ASU’s passing game has some pop, but the defense … doesn’t. Now’s a chance to establish a rhythm and take some pressure off Rocco Becht.
Current line: ISU -21.5 | SP+ projection: ISU by 22.1 | FPI projection: ISU by 16.2
FAU at FIU (6 p.m., ESPN+). SHULA BOWL! FAU certainly manhandled Florida A&M last week and is running Zach Kittley’s offense at the nation’s fastest tempo, but Willie Simmons’ first FIU team has overachieved against projections in each of its first two games. Can the Golden Panthers end a seven-game rivalry losing streak?
Current line: FIU -2.5 | SP+ projection: FAU by 2.7 | FPI projection: FAU by 0.7
Saturday evening
Ohio at No. 1 Ohio State (7 p.m., Peacock). Ohio is another big early-season overachiever, and quarterback Parker Navarro is fearless and physical. The blitz-happy Bobcats defense will try to throw some haymakers too. They probably won’t land many, but they could test Julian Sayin and some of Ohio State’s less experienced players.
Current line: Buckeyes -30.5 | SP+ projection: Buckeyes by -31.3 | FPI projection: Buckeyes by 24.6
No. 20 Utah at Wyoming (8 p.m., CBSSN). I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again: When I’m in charge of all college football scheduling, I’m sending a ranked power conference team to Laramie’s War Memorial Stadium every year. It can be a cauldron. Utah should prevail in its first trip up there in 15 years, but the Cowboys will hit hard and make their remodeled offense work harder than they’ve had to so far.
Current line: Utah -23.5 | SP+ projection: Utah by 20.4 | FPI projection: Utah by 20.1
Duke at Tulane (8 p.m., ESPN2). Darian Mensah Bowl! Mensah’s new team hits the road to face his old team, and after the Blue Devils fumbled away an opportunity to beat Illinois last week, they’ll have to rebound quickly to avoid falling to 1-2. Tulane has already beaten one power conference team (OK, it was Northwestern, but still). It looks the part of a big-time squad.
Current line: Tulane -1.5 | SP+ projection: Tulane by 7.4 | FPI projection: Tulane by 6.1
Late Saturday
Minnesota at Cal (10:30 p.m., ESPN). Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele has aced his early tests as Cal’s true freshman QB, completing 69% of his passes and taking almost no sacks. But Minnesota ranks third nationally in yards allowed per dropback (granted, after games against Buffalo and Northwestern State) and generates solid pressure without having to blitz much. The degree of difficulty ramps up considerably now.
Current line: Gophers -2.5 | SP+ projection: Gophers by 3.6 | FPI projection: Gophers by 0.6
Smaller-school showcase
Let’s once again save a shoutout for the glorious lower levels of the sport. Here are three games you should track.
Division III: No. 2 Mount Union at No. 15 Grove City (1 p.m., YouTube). After starting the season with a 37-29 win over a top-20 Wheaton team, Mount Union heads to Grove City, Pennsylvania, to face a ranked squad that SP+ loves. Can quarterback Mikey Maloney and the Purple Raiders score enough against a Grove City defense that forced seven turnovers against 2023 national champ Cortland last week?
SP+ projection: Mount Union by 1.8
Division III: No. 16 Wisconsin-Oshkosh at No. 1 North Central (2 p.m., YouTube). Well, you can’t question UW-Oshkosh’s bravery. A week after opening the season in Oregon and beating a top-15 Linfield team, the Titans return to the Midwest to take on Division III’s standard-bearer. North Central would immediately be a competitive FCS program, but this is a tricky season debut for the champs.
SP+ projection: NCC by 23.2
FCS: No. 17 North Dakota at No. 7 Montana (3 p.m., ESPN+). Montana is one of the FCS’ most reliable programs and should be strong again this fall, but North Dakota has begun 2025 by nearly beating Kansas State and walloping (an admittedly hopeless) Portland State. The Grizzlies better be ready for a slugfest.
SP+ projection: Montana by 11.6
More than 200 days will have passed between the Florida Gators winning the 2024-25 national championship and the start of the 2025-26 men’s college basketball season, but the action finally returns on Nov. 3.
ESPN’s Jeff Borzello, Joe Lunardi and Myron Medcalf weigh in on storylines that could shape the new season — and they join Neil Paine in making their predictions for everything from the Final Four and conference winners to All-America teams and beyond.
Which teams could make the biggest jumps? Which Top 25 programs are primed for early NCAA tournament exits? They answer seven burning questions then make their picks below.
Jump to:
Championship picks, conference winner |
Awards, All-America predictions
Could Florida really repeat?
Borzello: Florida absolutely can run it back this season.
Todd Golden brings back his entire frontcourt, a dominant group led by potential first-round NBA draft picks Alex Condon and Thomas Haugh and starting center Rueben Chinyelu. Golden also added two bona fide playmakers from the transfer portal in Boogie Fland and Xaivian Lee. Sure, there are some questions about depth — and whether Haugh can play full time at the 3 — but the talent of this starting five has few peers nationally, and Golden has proved he has the chops to win big games.
Medcalf: Florida can join the Gators team that achieved the same feat in 2006 and 2007.
Still, it’s important to note that this is a completely different squad with more questions than last season’s championship roster. Walter Clayton Jr., Alijah Martin and Will Richard had a rare chemistry that was the foundation of the Gators’ 2025 title run. Martin was the new face in that trio, but he also had previously helped a team reach the Final Four (Florida Atlantic). Haugh, Fland and Lee will have to build that bond on the fly as Golden guides a starting five that will feature two point guards.
Lunardi: Don’t bet on a repeat in Gainesville.
Not because the Gators aren’t good enough but because winning 12 straight NCAA tournament games over two years is really, really hard. The fact that UConn did it in 2023 and 2024 makes the probability of back-to-back repeats less likely — not more. I still like Florida. A lot. But this is a case where you shouldn’t blame the messenger.
Will the SEC be as dominant as it was in 2024-25?
Borzello: The depth will be just as good, but it won’t be as powerful at the top.
Last season, the league produced two 1-seeds, two 2-seeds, a 3-seed and a 4-seed among its 14 NCAA tournament teams. With the expected improvement of LSU, we could see up to 15 teams fighting for tournament bids this season — and I would have at least 13 projected as of today. But it’s difficult to foresee four teams in the top eight again. Florida is a title contender and Kentucky isn’t far behind, but none of the other teams is a surefire Final Four threat.
Lunardi: It’s important to consider the laws of probability.
Is a conference likely to get better or worse after breaking the NCAA single-season bid record by three spots? Both on the court and team sheets, the SEC was every bit as dominant as the selection committee concluded its teams would be in the NCAA tournament. But there has to be at least some regression this season, if only because the uncommon sense of handing NCAA bids to teams that win only one-third of their conference games has undergone an offseason of heavy scrutiny. (As it should. No league is that good.)
Medcalf: It depends on your definition of dominant.
The SEC could again have a double-digit pool of representatives in the field on Selection Sunday, but it doesn’t have as many teams that could actually cut down the nets as last season. Florida and Kentucky are real contenders. It seems as if Tennessee, Alabama, Auburn and Arkansas could all be second-weekend teams too. Last season’s SEC, however, had three players who made the Associated Press’ All-America first team and one who made the third team. Those were dominant squads with star power.
Which team will make the biggest leap from 2024-25?
Borzello: NC State Wolfpack
Last season, we saw Dusty May and Pat Kelsey take over new programs and produce incredible turnarounds in Year 1, as their respective Michigan and Louisville squads jumped from eight wins to 27. This season, the best bet might be Will Wade and NC State. The Wolfpack went 12-19 overall last season, including 5-15 in the ACC, but Wade stockpiled a talented roster after taking over for Kevin Keatts in the spring. Led by potential All-American Darrion Williams, NC State finds itself inside my preseason top 25.
Lunardi: Iowa Hawkeyes
A season ago, Iowa missed its second straight NCAA tournament. As a result, Fran McCaffery now finds himself coaching at his alma mater, Penn. The deeper issue involved the Hawkeyes going three straight campaigns with a sub-150 defensive rating, costing them games despite considerable offensive talent. It was an anomaly in terms of approach in the Big Ten, one that new coach Ben McCollum figures to immediately solve. McCollum’s ultra-patient style and ultra-experienced imports will surprise in their new league and sneak into the tournament.
Medcalf: Washington Huskies
Last season, Washington finished 13-18 in Danny Sprinkle’s first year in Seattle, but a strong transfer class led by former USC teammates Desmond Claude and Wesley Yates III could put the Huskies in the bubble conversation in Sprinkle’s second campaign. Early matchups against Baylor, USC and UCLA will be great barometers for Washington and its new roster.
First Top 25 team to exit the NCAA tournament
Borzello: Creighton Bluejays
The only preseason AP Top 25 team that wasn’t in my preseason top 25 is Michigan State, but I’m not naive enough to bet against Tom Izzo, regardless of the seed he gets on Selection Sunday. So, I’ll go with Creighton. The Bluejays should be elite offensively, especially if Jackson McAndrew makes the leap I’m expecting. But they could really struggle on the defensive end of the floor, and the primary creators in the half court could be a work in progress. If things get tight in a tournament environment, it could spell an early exit.
Lunardi: Gonzaga Bulldogs
Gonzaga avoided a major hit when a judge in Washington’s Spokane County granted a preliminary injunction to Grand Canyon transfer Tyon Grant-Foster, allowing him to play this season. The hard-luck veteran is no longer in limbo to start the campaign, but the Bulldogs — who last season missed the Sweet 16 for the first time in a decade — still have legitimate backcourt concerns, ones that could lead to an even earlier tournament exit.
Medcalf: North Carolina Tar Heels
The Tar Heels have more depth and more overall talent, but they couldn’t avoid the bubble with AP All-American RJ Davis leading the way last season. Caleb Wilson is a five-star prospect who will have key transfers — including Henri Veesaar — around him, but North Carolina will have to prove things have changed before fans are ready to believe.
Most intriguing mid-major
Borzello: UNC Wilmington Seahawks
UNCW won 27 games last season and went to the NCAA tournament, but the Seahawks will be more talented this time around despite returning just one starter. I’m mostly fascinated by the way Takayo Siddle went about that reload: poaching good players from other teams around the Coastal Athletic Association. CJ Luster II transferred from Stony Brook, Christian May arrived from Towson, Jahnathan Lamothe from North Carolina A&T and Madison Durr from Monmouth. Siddle also upgraded the interior with Virginia Tech transfer Patrick Wessler, who scored 10 points in 18 minutes against Duke last season, as well as Binghamton transfer Gavin Walsh, one of the nation’s top rebounders. This team has a chance to go to a second straight NCAA tournament — and potentially win a game.
Lunardi: The Western Athletic Conference
I’m going with an entire mid-major conference in lieu of a single team — and it’s not necessarily for good reason. Only seven schools remain in the shrinking WAC, a conference with both a serious past and a negligible future. The early departure of Grand Canyon to the Mountain West leaves a gaping hole at the top — and only three teams that have ever made the NCAA tournament. Somebody has to qualify, at least in 2026, which should make for great short-term theater in the WAC.
Medcalf: St. Thomas-Minnesota Tommies
I’ll go with St. Thomas-Minnesota, a team that is eligible for the NCAA tournament for the first time after its transition from Division III to Division I athletics. The Tommies are the preseason pick to win the Summit League crown and potentially the conference tournament, which would make the team the first squad to go from Division III to Division I and secure an NCAA tournament berth. But it gets better. The supporters of this program are ready to spend (see: the new $175 million arena that opens next week) to make this private school in St. Paul the Gonzaga of the Upper Midwest. A run this season could put the Tommies on that path.
Athlete with outside shot to win Player of the Year
Borzello: Zuby Ejiofor, St. John’s
If we take out two returning All-Americans (Braden Smith and JT Toppin) and the top three freshmen (AJ Dybantsa, Darryn Peterson and Cameron Boozer), the next guy on my list would be Ejiofor. You could have made the case last season that the St. John’s big man was the most impactful player in the Big East, given his offensive rebounding, ability to draw fouls and influence defensively. The Red Storm should be right around the top five nationally this season and a legitimate Final Four contender — and if that comes to fruition, Ejiofor taking another step forward after last season’s breakout will be a major reason.
Lunardi: Yaxel Lendeborg, Michigan
Lendeborg is the right man in the right place at exactly the right time to possibly collect some major hardware. Last season, only two Division I players led their respective teams in the five major statistical categories (points, rebounds, assists, blocked shots and steals). One was Cooper Flagg; the other was Lendeborg at UAB. Now in a great spot at Michigan, Lendeborg’s number will be impossible to miss. That he could be the missing player for a legitimate Final Four contender is just a bonus.
Medcalf: Darius Acuff Jr., Arkansas
John Calipari has a strong history with high-level point guards at this level. John Wall, Derrick Rose and Tyler Ulis were All-Americans under his leadership. If Acuff can be a high-level playmaker for an Arkansas team that competes for a spot in the SEC’s top tier, Acuff could enter the Player of the Year conversation.
Coach with the most at stake
Borzello: Hubert Davis, North Carolina
Davis is the highest-profile coach entering the season in a tenuous situation, and he happens to coach one of the blue bloods of the sport with one of the best jobs in the country. Through four seasons at the helm, he has been to a national championship game, won an ACC championship, earned a 1-seed and been to multiple Sweet 16s. But the expectations in Chapel Hill don’t drop, and a missed NCAA tournament in 2023 combined with last season’s inconsistent 11-seed have increased the pressure on Davis. There’s enough talent on the roster to cool his seat, but that was the case last season too.
» Read Borzello’s coaching hot seat guide
Lunardi: Rick Pitino, St. John’s
Pitino is 73 years old. He has won everything there is to win at virtually every level of basketball. One could argue his numbers since being selected to the Naismith Basketball Hall of Fame in 2013 — a 221-72 record, a .754 winning percentage and six NCAA tournament bids in nine tries — make up their own HOF trajectory. What he hasn’t done is finish the job in his hometown. Two years with the New York Knicks half a lifetime ago and the past two with St. John’s have scratched an inch, certainly. But the chance to go out by winning really big with the Red Storm is very much on the table for Pitino in 2025-26. It could be his last, best chance.
Medcalf: Kelvin Sampson, Houston
It’s not like Sampson needs this; he has won 30 or more games in four consecutive seasons. He was within seconds of capturing the first national title of his career against Florida last season. And with the additions of three top-25 recruits, he’ll have the talent to get back to the final game of the campaign. At 70 years old, Sampson says he will always adapt, despite the changes in this game. He has proved he can do that. Yet few teams have had the five-year window he has enjoyed as a national title contender. This could be the season. And if it’s not, it could be difficult to get back to this stage with all of the real-time turbulence impacting college basketball.
CHAMPIONSHIP PREDICTIONS
National champion
Borzello: Purdue
Lunardi: Michigan
Medcalf: Houston
Paine: Houston
Final Four
Borzello: Purdue, Florida, Louisville, BYU
Lunardi: Duke, Purdue, Michigan, UConn
Medcalf: Kentucky, Houston, Purdue, BYU
Paine: Houston, Purdue, Michigan, Florida
Conference winners
AWARDS PREDICTIONS
Player of the Year
Borzello: Braden Smith, Purdue
Lunardi: Yaxel Lendeborg, Michigan
Medcalf: Braden Smith, Purdue
Paine: JT Toppin, Texas Tech
Freshman of the Year
Borzello: Darryn Peterson, Kansas
Lunardi: AJ Dybantsa, BYU
Medcalf: AJ Dybantsa, BYU
Paine: Darryn Peterson, Kansas
Newcomer of the Year
Borzello: Yaxel Lendeborg, Michigan
Lunardi: Yaxel Lendeborg, Michigan
Medcalf: Darrion Williams, NC State
Paine: Bennett Stirtz, Iowa
» Read ESPN’s top 50 newcomer rankings
All-America teams
Borzello:
Braden Smith, Purdue
Darryn Peterson, Kansas
AJ Dybantsa, BYU
Cameron Boozer, Duke
JT Toppin, Texas Tech
Lunardi:
Yaxel Lendeborg, Michigan
JT Toppin, Texas Tech
Trey Kaufman-Renn, Purdue
AJ Dybantsa, BYU
Cameron Boozer, Duke
Medcalf:
Braden Smith, Purdue
JT Toppin, Texas Tech
AJ Dybantsa, BYU
Darryn Peterson, Kansas
Cameron Boozer, Duke
Paine:
Braden Smith, Purdue
Darryn Peterson, Kansas
Yaxel Lendeborg, Michigan
JT Toppin, Texas Tech
Graham Ike, Gonzaga
» Read Jay Bilas’ All-America predictions
Coach of the Year
Borzello: Pat Kelsey, Louisville
Lunardi: Dusty May, Michigan
Medcalf: Mark Pope, Kentucky
Paine: Matt Painter, Purdue
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After Chauncey Billups, Terry Rozier and Damon Jones were arrested last week due to their own alleged involvement in illegal gambling, speculation went around that Gilbert Arenas cooperated with authorities to implicate the NBA figures.
The former NBA star, who found himself in trouble during his playing days, was accused earlier this year of operating an illegal gambling ring from a home he owned in Southern California.
Shortly after his July arrest, Arenas, who pleaded not guilty, admitted that he would be “snitching.” But in a livestream on Friday, he reiterated he would only do so in his own case.
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NBA player Gilbert Arenas arrives at District of Columbia Court, Jan. 15, 2010 in Washington, D.C. (Brendan Smialowski/Getty Images)
Thus, Arenas denied any involvement in the most recent case.
“I don’t know what this gotta do with my case,” Arenas said. “I don’t think you just walk around telling them cases you don’t know. My case is different. I don’t know what my case has to do with n—-s that’s gambling and giving information on NBA games. How does that have to do with me?”
“Common sense is common sense. This is a whole different breed of – this s— has its own name. Mine didn’t have no operation name,” Arenas added, referencing that Rozier and Jones were arrested in “Operation Nothing But Bet,” and Billups and Jones were arrested in “Operation Royal Flush.”
A federal indictment obtained by Fox News Digital showed Arenas was charged with one count of conspiracy to operate an illegal gambling business, one count of operating an illegal gambling business, and another count of making false statements to federal investigators.
Arenas, nicknamed “Agent Zero,” is suspected of renting a property in Encino, California, for the purpose of hosting high-stakes poker games, according to the Justice Department.
Closeup of Washington Wizards Gilbert Arenas (0) on the court during a game vs the Phoenix Suns in Washington, D.C. (Simon Bruty/Sports Illustrated via Getty Images)
The federal indictment was filed in Los Angeles. According to the document, Arenas is accused of instructing Arthur Kats to stage illegal games. Kats allegedly handled rental payments for other individuals who were also believed to have had a role in the operation. Officials said they obtained text messages believed to show conversations between Arenas and Kats about details of the games in question.
One of the defendants, Ievgen Krachun, was identified as the person who oversaw the gambling as it was allegedly being committed inside the home, according to the indictment. Another defendant, Yevgeni Gershman, was described by the DOJ as a “suspected organized crime figure from Israel.”
During his career, Arenas was charged after bringing guns into the team’s locker room during a dispute with former teammate Javaris Crittenton. Crittenton served 10 years in prison for his role in a 2011 shooting.
Billups, Rozier and Jones, the latter of whom is a defendant in both cases, were charged with conspiracy to commit wire fraud and conspiracy to commit money laundering. The NBA announced that Billups and Rozier were placed on immediate leave from their teams, “and we will continue to cooperate with the relevant authorities.”
Chauncey Billups, Terry Rozier and Damon Jones were arrested on Thursday. (Jaime Valdez/Imagn Images, Melissa Tamez/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images, Greg Nelson/Sports Illustrated via Getty Images)
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“The integrity of our game remains our top priority,” the NBA said.
Fox News’ Chantz Martin contributed to this report.
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The Arthur M. Blank Foundation announced Wednesday morning that the Atlanta Falcons owner will donate “an initial grant” of $1.5 million to Hurricane Melissa relief efforts.
The foundation said the money will be donated to support the work of World Central Kitchen, Team Rubicon, and CARE USA.
“World Central Kitchen provides nourishing meals and fresh water in times of crisis, and Team Rubicon specializes in on the ground disaster response and recovery,” the foundation said in a release. “The Foundation’s pre-investment for CARE USA’s Humanitarian Surge Fund aids in providing rapid deployment of resources for disaster relief and will be activated immediately.”
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Atlanta Falcons owner Arthur Blank reacts during the game against the Las Vegas Raiders at Allegiant Stadium. (Kirby Lee/Imagn Images)
“Jamaica and the Caribbean hold a special place in my heart, filled with meaningful family memories,” Blank himself said in a statement.
“The impact of Hurricane Melissa is profound, but so is the resilience of people in this region. We’re humbled to support Team Rubicon and World Central Kitchen with an initial grant to help address immediate needs in the community with disaster relief and nourishing meals. While the road ahead will be long, our hearts are with those affected, and we hope our support brings comfort and strength along the way.”
Atlanta Falcons owner Arthur Blank looks on prior to the game between the Indianapolis Colts and Atlanta Falcons at Mercedes-Benz Stadium on Dec. 24, 2023, in Atlanta, Georgia. (Todd Kirkland/Getty Images)
DOCTOR OF PHYSICAL THERAPY EXPLAINS CAM SKATTEBO’S GRUESOME ANKLE INJURY AND RECOVERY OUTLOOK
The storm slammed Jamaica earlier this week as a Category 5 hurricane, making it the strongest storm ever to make a direct hit on the island.
With 185 mph winds and 220 mph gusts, it’s the strongest storm this year and the third Category 5 hurricane. This is also the second time in a calendar year there have been at least three Category 5 hurricanes recorded.
The last time Jamaica faced a hurricane of a similar magnitude was Hurricane Gilbert in 1988, a Category 4 storm remembered as the deadliest and most destructive in the nation’s history.
Storm surge is pictured before the arrival of Hurricane Melissa in the Caribbean Terrace area of Kingston, Jamaica, on Oct. 25, 2025. (RICARDO MAKYN/AFP)
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The storm left hundreds homeless and forced thousands into overcrowded emergency shelters, according to a report from the National Library of Jamaica. Despite its ferocity, the official death toll remained relatively low, with 45 fatalities and few reported injuries, but the storm caused an estimated $800 million in damage across the island, the publication said.
Fox News’ Bonny Chu contributed to this report.
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