Business
Can India Trust Chairman XI? How China Is Still A Long Term Systematic Threat Despite Recent Thaw In Relationship
New Delhi: Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s presence at the recent Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit signaled a subtle recalibration in New Delhi’s approach towards Beijing. His participation — and the brief exchange with Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines — underscored attempts by both sides to stabilise relations after years of border tensions and trade friction. While no major breakthroughs were announced, the optics of Modi’s visit have been read as an opening for a cautious thaw, setting the stage for renewed diplomatic and economic engagement between the two Asian giants.
Yet, for Indian policymakers, history casts a long shadow over such gestures. Since the 1950s, India has experienced several episodes where agreements or friendly overtures with China were followed by sharp reversals or conflict. The most striking example remains the 1962 Sino-Indian war, which erupted just a few years after the “Hindi-Chini Bhai Bhai” phase and the signing of the Panchsheel Agreement. Subsequent decades have witnessed repeated flare-ups despite ongoing talks and confidence-building measures — from the Sumdorong Chu standoff in 1987, to the Doklam crisis in 2017, and the deadly Galwan clashes in 2020. Each time, India’s expectations of a stable border were shaken by Chinese military maneuvers, reinforcing a pattern of mistrust.
This legacy of caution influences not just border diplomacy but also how India views its massive trade relationship with China. As geopolitical tensions ease tentatively, economic realities remain stark. China’s manufacturing overcapacity poses a serious threat to the Indian economy by undermining local industries, widening trade deficits, and destabilizing market conditions in several sectors. Despite India’s rapid industrial growth and emerging status as a manufacturing hub, the flood of cheap, subsidized Chinese goods disrupts domestic markets and jeopardies the viability of homegrown businesses.
China produces about 30 percent of the world’s manufactured goods but consumes only around 18 percent domestically. This mismatch fuels an export push, often at low prices backed by state subsidies. India has borne the brunt: a trade deficit of about USD 99.2 billion in the 2024-25 fiscal year, and intense pressure on sectors such as steel, solar panels and electric vehicles. Cheaper Chinese imports erode market share, squeeze profit margins, and slow domestic industrial growth — directly threatening the government’s “Make in India” ambitions.
At the same time, global supply chains are diversifying. Many multinational firms are adopting a “China-plus-one” strategy that includes India, recognizing its large workforce, improving digital infrastructure and strategic location. To convert this window into a long-term advantage, India must couple its diplomatic outreach with robust trade policy actions, targeted industrial reforms and stronger WTO-aligned measures to counter dumping and subsidies.
The current establishment has consistently approached trade with China with caution, fully aware of the risks posed by overreliance on a complex and often unpredictable partner. This cautious stance has allowed India to benefit from engagement while minimizing vulnerabilities. Moving forward, this approach must remain steadfast: any thaw in geopolitical tensions should be matched by strategic vigilance in economic dealings. Strengthening domestic industries, diversifying supply chains, and learning from past breaches of trust will ensure that India’s engagement with China continues to serve national interests, rather than exposing the country to avoidable risks. Only by balancing opportunity with prudence can India maintain leverage and safeguard its long-term economic and strategic goals.
Business
Why does Amazon have no Western rivals?
First, to be sure, Amazon isn’t without competitors in any of the segments it is in, including e-commerce. Major US retailers like Walmart and Target both have broad-based, rapidly-expanding online retail arms, and offer their own versions of Amazon’s Prime subscription service.
Business
Weather & then war lead to tears in India’s onion basket
Rain clouds rolled over Maharashtra’s onion belt. Then came war winds from West Asia. Prices collapsed. Crops rotted. Farmers counted losses in rupees — and sold tears by the quintal. Across Nashik, Solapur and Chhatrapati Sambhajinagar, onion growers are reaping a bitter harvest this season as wholesale prices at agriculture produce market committees (APMCs) have crashed far below production costs.Prakash Galadhar, a farmer hailing from Paithan taluka in Chhatrapati Sambhajinagar, hauled 1,262kg of onions he had harvested to market last week. After deductions for labour, loading and transport, his final balance showed he owed the trader Re 1.In Satana APMC of Nashik district, farmer Jitendra Solanke brought 30 quintals hoping to recover at least part of his investment. Traders first offered Rs 50 a quintal. After he protested, rate climbed to Rs 175 a quintal — Rs 1.75 a kg.Still, numbers refused to add up. “I spent Rs 1,200 per quintal to grow crop. After sale, labour and transport charges, only Rs 500 remained. The loss mounted to Rs 36,000,” Solanke said.Inputs have become expensive — seeds, fertilisers, diesel, mechanised farming and labour costs have all risen sharply — while market prices have sunk into mud.“We sell onions at Rs 4 to Rs 5 per kg while production cost is over Rs 12,” said Bhausaheb Jagtap, a farmer from Pune district. “After paying everybody, nothing is left,” Jagtap said.Prices have been sliding since Feb this year. At Lasalgaon APMC in Nashik — country’s largest onion wholesale market and benchmark for national rates — the kitchen staple is currently selling between Rs 400 and Rs 1,600 a quintal. Nearly 80% of arrivals fetch less than Rs 800 a quintal.In Solapur APMC, arrivals on May 13 touched 14,756 quintals. Prices ranged from Rs 100 to Rs 1,700 a quintal, or Rs 1 to Rs 17 a kg. A year ago, onions sold there for Rs 2,500 to Rs 3,000 a quintal.Growers said break-even price stands near Rs 18 a kg. “Losses are massive because nearly 80% of onions are selling between Rs 400 and Rs 800 per quintal,” said Bharat Dighole, president of Maharashtra Onion Growers’ Association.Market experts blamed a perfect storm: bumper arrivals, weak domestic demand, export disruptions and rain-damaged produce flooding mandis.“Geopolitical tensions involving Iran, US and Israel disrupted export markets and reduced overseas demand,” said Vikas Singh, vice president of Horticulture Produce Exporters’ Association of India.Unseasonal rain between March 19 and 21 added another blow to the farmers. Showers lashed Nashik district just as summer onion harvest began, damaging ready crop and triggering rot during storage. “Only 30% of produce was grade-1 quality,” said Prakash Jadhav, head of onion department at Solapur APMC. “Rain damage and long storage hurt quality.”Farmers are demanding onions be brought under minimum support price, pegging at Rs 3,500 a quintal. Growers’ groups want Maharashtra govt to compensate farmers by Rs 1,500 a quintal for distress sales.(Inputs from Prasad Joshi)
Business
India among fastest-growing steel market as global prices rise: Goldman Sachs
India emerged as one of the fastest-growing steel markets as global steel prices rose across major regions in April and early May, according to a Goldman Sachs report. In its “Global Steel: The Steel Market Barometer – May Update”, Goldman Sachs said average hot rolled coil (HRC) prices increased across nearly all major markets in April, led by Brazil with a 10 per cent month-on-month rise, followed by Japan at 6.5 per cent and China at 2.9 per cent. “On a YTD basis, Brazil’s HRC steel price performance has been the strongest in our sample (+21%), followed by the US (+15%) with other regions also showing price increases from 6%-13%,” the report said, as quoted by ANI.India continued to show strong rise within this global uptrend, with crude steel production rising 11 per cent year-on-year in March, compared with 10 per cent year-to-date growth and 7 per cent in February, the report said. Meanwhile, long steel prices also firmed in April across key regions, with Brazil recording a 12 per cent rise in rebar prices, followed by Europe at 6.9 per cent and the Black Sea region at 6.1 per cent. On the supply side, China’s steel output continued to contract, falling 3.2 per cent year-on-year in the first two weeks of May. Commenting on the sector, Goldman Sachs said, “On the industry level, while the anti-involution effort and long-term capacity cut plan for the Chinese steel sector remain intact, we see delayed execution in 2026E in terms of both capacity and production discipline.” Region-wise trends showed mixed performance across major producers. Europe’s crude steel output rose 16 per cent month-on-month in March, though it remained lower year-on-year and on a year-to-date basis. In the US, average weekly steel production increased 3 per cent in April, while utilisation rates averaged 79.6 per cent. Goldman Sachs added that infrastructure activity in China remained resilient despite weakness in the property sector, while manufacturing improved and construction softened. It projected broadly stable steel prices across major global markets through 2026, with US prices expected to remain stronger than those in Europe, China and Brazil.
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