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Can India Trust Chairman XI? How China Is Still A Long Term Systematic Threat Despite Recent Thaw In Relationship

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Can India Trust Chairman XI? How China Is Still A Long Term Systematic Threat Despite Recent Thaw In Relationship


New Delhi: Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s presence at the recent Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit signaled a subtle recalibration in New Delhi’s approach towards Beijing. His participation — and the brief exchange with Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines — underscored attempts by both sides to stabilise relations after years of border tensions and trade friction. While no major breakthroughs were announced, the optics of Modi’s visit have been read as an opening for a cautious thaw, setting the stage for renewed diplomatic and economic engagement between the two Asian giants.

Yet, for Indian policymakers, history casts a long shadow over such gestures. Since the 1950s, India has experienced several episodes where agreements or friendly overtures with China were followed by sharp reversals or conflict. The most striking example remains the 1962 Sino-Indian war, which erupted just a few years after the “Hindi-Chini Bhai Bhai” phase and the signing of the Panchsheel Agreement. Subsequent decades have witnessed repeated flare-ups despite ongoing talks and confidence-building measures — from the Sumdorong Chu standoff in 1987, to the Doklam crisis in 2017, and the deadly Galwan clashes in 2020. Each time, India’s expectations of a stable border were shaken by Chinese military maneuvers, reinforcing a pattern of mistrust.

This legacy of caution influences not just border diplomacy but also how India views its massive trade relationship with China. As geopolitical tensions ease tentatively, economic realities remain stark. China’s manufacturing overcapacity poses a serious threat to the Indian economy by undermining local industries, widening trade deficits, and destabilizing market conditions in several sectors. Despite India’s rapid industrial growth and emerging status as a manufacturing hub, the flood of cheap, subsidized Chinese goods disrupts domestic markets and jeopardies the viability of homegrown businesses.

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China produces about 30 percent of the world’s manufactured goods but consumes only around 18 percent domestically. This mismatch fuels an export push, often at low prices backed by state subsidies. India has borne the brunt: a trade deficit of about USD 99.2 billion in the 2024-25 fiscal year, and intense pressure on sectors such as steel, solar panels and electric vehicles. Cheaper Chinese imports erode market share, squeeze profit margins, and slow domestic industrial growth — directly threatening the government’s “Make in India” ambitions.

At the same time, global supply chains are diversifying. Many multinational firms are adopting a “China-plus-one” strategy that includes India, recognizing its large workforce, improving digital infrastructure and strategic location. To convert this window into a long-term advantage, India must couple its diplomatic outreach with robust trade policy actions, targeted industrial reforms and stronger WTO-aligned measures to counter dumping and subsidies.

The current establishment has consistently approached trade with China with caution, fully aware of the risks posed by overreliance on a complex and often unpredictable partner. This cautious stance has allowed India to benefit from engagement while minimizing vulnerabilities. Moving forward, this approach must remain steadfast: any thaw in geopolitical tensions should be matched by strategic vigilance in economic dealings. Strengthening domestic industries, diversifying supply chains, and learning from past breaches of trust will ensure that India’s engagement with China continues to serve national interests, rather than exposing the country to avoidable risks. Only by balancing opportunity with prudence can India maintain leverage and safeguard its long-term economic and strategic goals.

 

 



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Setback for expatriates? Delhi HC upholds mandatory EPFO membership; what this means for foreign staff – The Times of India

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Setback for expatriates? Delhi HC upholds mandatory EPFO membership; what this means for foreign staff – The Times of India


The Delhi High Court on Tuesday ruled that expatriates working in Indian companies must become members of the Employees’ Provident Fund Organisation (EPFO) and contribute to the fund regardless of their income levels.The court upheld amendments to the Employees’ Provident Funds and Miscellaneous Provisions Act, 1952, as well as the Centre’s 2008 and 2010 notifications that mandate international workers to contribute to the Employees’ Provident Fund (EPF).Under the ruling, international workers will be allowed to withdraw their full EPF balance only after retiring at or after the age of 58, or in cases of permanent and total incapacity. This is seen as a setback for expatriates who generally work in India for shorter periods of two to five years, reported ET. Indian workers, by comparison, are required to contribute if they earn below Rs 15,000 per month. Legal experts noted that many foreign employees have already left India, meaning employers will now have to bear their share of contributions.A division bench of Chief Justice Devendra Kumar Upadhyaya and Justice Tushar Rao Gedela held that the distinction between foreign and Indian employees was justified. The court accepted the government’s position that international workers form a separate group because they contribute only during their limited time in India, unlike domestic employees who contribute throughout their service.“The classification made was reasonable and it also has an object sought to be achieved that the purpose of mandating an employee to be a member of 1952 scheme was to provide social security,” the court said, as quoted by ET.The court also upheld EPFO communications directing SpiceJet and LG Electronics India to deposit provident fund and related dues for their international staff. It dismissed SpiceJet’s challenge to summons issued in 2012 requiring it to produce records for determining liabilities, and similarly rejected objections raised by LG Electronics.The Delhi High Court’s ruling aligns with a previous judgment of the Bombay High Court, while the Karnataka High Court has ruled to the contrary. Due to the conflicting views, the matter is expected to reach the Supreme Court for final interpretation. Both companies are assessing the implications and are likely to move to the Supreme Court, according to legal sources.Atul Sharma, counsel for SpiceJet, said, “The entire basis of amendment to the scheme is implementation to certain treaties with countries who have similar provision for social security. And under the Constitution of India, this amendment could not be implemented as treaties have not been ratified by Parliament.” He said the issue requires further consideration.The companies had argued that the classification between foreign and Indian employees was discriminatory.





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GST rationalisation impact: Higher RBI dividend expected to offset revenue shortfall; CareEdge flags tax pressure – The Times of India

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GST rationalisation impact: Higher RBI dividend expected to offset revenue shortfall; CareEdge flags tax pressure – The Times of India


Strong RBI dividend to help stabilise finances

The recent rationalisation of Goods and Services Tax (GST) rates is likely to create a net revenue loss of around 0.1 per cent of GDP in the current financial year. However, this shortfall may be compensated by the higher dividend payout from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), according to a report by CareEdge Ratings.The report, cited by ANI, highlighted that tax revenue growth has already slowed this year. With nominal GDP growth projected to be lower in FY26, achieving the full-year tax collection targets could become more difficult. The effect of the income tax relief announced in the last Budget, along with the revised GST structure, will need to be closely watched in the coming months.

India’s Digital ID, GST Reform Win Global Recognition From IMF Chief Kristalina Georgieva

CareEdge noted, “The net revenue shortfall from GST rationalisation is expected to be offset by the higher dividend transfer received from the RBI.”Despite the support from non-tax revenue, the report cautioned that weaker tax inflows could limit the government’s spending capacity in the latter half of the fiscal year. This could become more pronounced if the Centre continues to focus on its fiscal consolidation goal, which involves gradually lowering the fiscal deficit over time.When the GST rationalisation decision was announced, the GST Council had estimated the fiscal implication at about Rs 48,000 crore, or around 0.15 per cent of GDP based on FY24 consumption levels. The Council had also expected that stronger consumption could help recover part of this impact through improved GST receipts.A separate analysis by the State Bank of India (SBI), reported by ANI, projected that the central government’s revenue loss due to the GST rate cuts will be about Rs 3,700 crore in FY26. SBI noted that robust growth and increased consumer demand have helped soften the overall impact.SBI pointed out that while the initial estimated loss from GST rate changes was Rs 93,000 crore, additional GST collections led to the net loss narrowing to Rs 48,000 crore.During the first half of the current fiscal year, a slowdown in tax receipts was partly cushioned by strong non-tax revenue, particularly the higher dividend from the RBI. Meanwhile, the reduction in personal income tax rates announced in the Budget has contributed to slower income tax collections this year.While the complete fiscal impact of the GST rationalisation will become clearer over time, analysts suggest that the government may still be able to maintain fiscal balance. The combination of higher non-tax revenue and potential gains from stronger consumption-led GST inflows could help offset the pressure from moderating tax collections.





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Delhivery Slips Into Losses Despite Posting 17% Revenue Rise In Q2 FY26

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Delhivery Slips Into Losses Despite Posting 17% Revenue Rise In Q2 FY26


New Delhi: Logistics firm Delhivery reported a 17 per cent year-on-year revenue increase for the second quarter of FY26, but incurred losses as costs exceeded revenue growth, according to an exchange filing on Wednesday. Revenue from operations of the Gurugram-based company grew to Rs 2,559 crore in Q2 FY26, up from Rs 2,190 crore a year earlier.

Total revenue, including Rs 92 crore from non-operating activities, reached Rs 2,651 crore, the filing said. However, freight handling and servicing costs, Delhivery’s largest expense, rose 12.5 per cent to Rs 1,843 crore, representing 68 per cent of total expenditure.

Delhivery’s expenditure surpassing revenue resulted in a loss of Rs 50 crore Q2 FY26, compared to a profit of Rs 10 crore in Q2 FY25. For the half year, its profit dropped by 37 per cent to Rs 40.5 crore in H1 FY26 as compared to Rs 64.5 crore in H1 FY25.

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Overall expenses rose 18 per cent to Rs 2,708 crore in Q2 FY26, up from Rs 2,294 crore in Q2 FY25. In the filings, the company attributed this surge in expense to higher legal, depreciation, and other overhead costs, despite a 22 per cent decrease in employee benefit expenses to Rs 425 crore.

Delhivery’s primary revenue sources were its logistics services, including warehousing, last-mile logistics, and designing and deploying logistics management systems. The company’s share price closed at Rs 486 at the end of the last trading session, resulting in a market capitalisation of Rs 36,335 crore.

It mentioned in its letter to shareholders that it recorded the highest monthly order volumes of over 100 million e-commerce and freight shipments in September as well as October, and highest single day dispatch of 7.2 million orders.

In June 2025, Delhivery had bought a 99.44 per cent stake in e-commerce logistics provider Ecom Express for a cash consideration of up to Rs 1,400 crore.



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