Business
Fitch put Pakistan’s debt ratings under review | The Express Tribune
KARACHI:
Fitch Ratings has placed the long-term debt ratings of 25 sovereigns, including Pakistan, Under Criteria Observation (UCO) following an overhaul of its sovereign rating methodology.
The action, announced late Friday, covers 435 long-term sovereign debt instruments and follows the release of Fitch’s updated Sovereign Rating Criteria on September 15, 2025. Although the UCO designation does not represent an immediate change in the ratings, it signals that they may shift once Fitch completes its reassessment under the revised framework within the next six months.
The update introduces loss severity considerations into the assessment of long-term sovereign debt, meaning creditors’ recovery prospects in the event of a default will now play a direct role in determining ratings. Sovereigns with long-term issuer default ratings (IDRs) of B+ or below could see their debt ratings adjusted upward, downward, or equalised depending on expected recovery outcomes. According to Fitch, the recovery rate estimates will be linked to the assignment of Recovery Ratings, making the methodology more consistent with how corporate and structured finance credits are evaluated.
Analysts in Pakistan view the move as technical rather than immediately consequential. Waqas Ghani Kukaswadia, Research Head at JS Global, said Fitch’s criteria change was primarily about recalibrating recovery expectations. “They have made some changes to the recovery expectations and loss severity, based on which they will now issue these ratings. They have changed some rules in estimating loss severity – whether recovery prospects are below average or above average. That’s about it. It is a technical update and apparently has no immediate impact,” he explained.
Even so, the update could have meaningful implications for sovereigns already under financial strain. Fitch noted that long-term debt instruments could be notched up if recovery expectations are “above average”, better, or notched down if expectations are “below average” or worse. Those deemed “average” will be equalised with the issuer’s IDR. While the criteria technically apply across the rating scale, the most visible effects are expected among lower-rated sovereigns – typically frontier and emerging market economies grappling with weak external finances, heavy debt burdens, or limited access to global capital markets.
Countries affected by the UCO placement include Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Egypt, Nigeria, Ghana, Kenya, Ethiopia, and Ukraine, among others. Pakistan’s global sukuk programme has also been specifically flagged as under review. Fitch emphasised that the UCO action does not indicate any deterioration in these countries’ fundamental credit profiles, nor does it alter their current outlooks or rating watches. Pakistan’s sovereign rating was last affirmed at CCC+ earlier this year, reflecting a fragile external liquidity position despite ongoing reforms under the International Monetary Fund programme.
Fitch plans to complete its reassessment within six months, after which the UCO designation will be resolved. Ratings may remain unchanged, be upgraded, or downgraded depending on the final recovery assessments. Market analysts suggest that while investors may not react sharply in the short term, the eventual resolution could influence sentiment toward countries with high debt rollover needs and constrained fiscal positions.
By introducing loss severity into sovereign ratings, Fitch is bringing its approach closer to that already applied in corporate and structured finance sectors, where recovery assumptions are standard practice. Although the methodology update may not carry immediate market consequences, some countries with lower ratings could face movement, either upward or downward, once Fitch applies its new framework in practice.
Business
Helium And India: Up, up and away: Is the world running out of Helium gas? – The Times of India
Helium isn’t something most people think about, unless you’re in a lab, running an MRI, building chips, or inhaling it for that squeaky balloon voice. But what if the world suddenly runs out of this invisible gas? As exaggerating as the question may sound, it’s exactly what’s raising concerns right now. As tensions in the Middle East shake up supply chains, helium has quietly floated into the middle of a global crisis, one that could affect everything from hospital scans to high-tech factories in ways few expected.Earlier this month, the global helium supply chain took a big hit. Iranian drone and missile strikes on Qatar’s Ras Laffan industrial city, the world’s largest hub for helium production, forced a shutdown that knocked out nearly one-third of the global supply overnight. The disruption was further compounded by Tehran’s tightened grip on the Strait of Hormuz to Western commercial shipping, forcing vessels to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope, significantly increasing transit times and losses.While this already sounds like a problem, it’s even worse for liquid helium, which has to be kept at extremely low temperatures and can’t easily survive long journeys without significant “boil-off” losses. As a result, the ongoing crisis, often referred to as “helium shortage 5.0,” has moved beyond a theoretical risk to become a systemic global supply disruption.

How is Helium used
Non-essential uses: The luxury of levityThe most common non-essential use of helium is in the party and floral industry for filling decorative balloons. While culturally popular, this application is a primary source of “waste,” as the gas eventually leaks into the atmosphere and escapes into space, never to be recovered. Similarly, its use in advertising blimps and parade floats is considered non-essential because these functions can be served by alternative technologies like drone displays or, in some cases, hydrogen gas. Additionally, using helium for minor leak detection in household appliances is often deemed non-critical, as cheaper “forming gas” (nitrogen-hydrogen mixes) can often perform the same task without depleting the world’s rare helium reserves.Essential uses: The superfluid backboneHelium is indispensable in healthcare, specifically for MRI machines. It is the only element capable of cooling superconducting magnets to -269°C, a temperature required to keep the magnets operational for life-saving diagnostic scans. Beyond medicine, it is critical in semiconductor manufacturing and fiber optics. Its inert nature and high thermal conductivity allow it to cool components rapidly and prevent chemical contamination during the production of the microchips that power our global digital infrastructure. Meanwhile in aerospace, helium is used to purge and pressurize rocket fuel tanks, as it remains a gas even at the extreme cryogenic temperatures of liquid oxygen and hydrogen.This raises an important question, especially as countries rush to secure their energy supply: why can’t this element simply be replaced?

The chemistry of scarcity — Can’t we just make more Helium?
To understand why this shortage is so critical, it is essential to understand helium’s unique physical properties. Although helium is the second most abundant element in the universe, it is extremely rare on Earth. Unlike nitrogen or oxygen, it cannot be extracted from the atmosphere. Instead, helium is a non-renewable by-product formed over billions of years through radioactive decay deep within the Earth’s crust. It becomes trapped in natural gas reservoirs and is recovered during gas processing.Once released into the atmosphere, helium is effectively lost forever. Being extremely light, it escapes Earth’s gravitational pull and drifts into space. There is no known method to manufacture helium at scale, nor any viable substitute for its unique properties. Every unit consumed, whether in industrial applications or even party balloons, is permanently depleted.The impact of the helium crisis is already being felt across major economies. Countries such as South Korea, Japan, Taiwan and China, among Qatar’s largest importers of helium, are facing growing uncertainty over supplies as disruptions in the Middle East ripple through the global market. Even North American consumers, despite domestic production, remain partly dependent on Gulf helium, highlighting the truly global nature of the supply chain strain.
Hormuz trouble hits Helium bubble
This widespread impact has laid bare the structural vulnerability of the global helium market, which remains heavily concentrated in a handful of regions. Historically, supply has rested on a “tripod” of the United States, Qatar and Russia, with Qatar alone contributing around for over 30% of global production, most of it centred in the Ras Laffan industrial complex. At the same time, United States remains the largest producer globally, generating around 81 million cubic metres, over 40% of total supply.

A key reason behind the crisis lies in how helium is produced. It is not extracted independently but as a by-product of liquefied natural gas (LNG) processing, making its availability directly proportional to the stability of gas infrastructure.“The global helium market has a considerable degree of exposure to the Middle East, mainly on Qatar which accounts for somewhere between 30% to 35% of global helium supply,” said Sourav Mitra, partner – oil and gas at Grant Thornton Bharat. “The majority of its output is concentrated in the Ras Laffan industrial complex,” the expert told TOI.Mitra highlighted that helium’s dependence on maritime logistics adds another layer of risk. “Considering that helium is a low-density gas that must be shipped in specialized cryogenic containers, it relies entirely on stable maritime trade routes. Any conflicts that threaten the Strait of Hormuz… create immediate global shortages,” he said. Unlike crude oil, there are no significant global strategic reserves of helium that can cushion such disruptions.The situation has been further complicated by damage to LNG infrastructure. “Helium is obtained as a by-product of gas processing… if the LNG ecosystem slows or shuts down, helium production automatically halts,” Mitra explained.Reports indicate that around 17% of Qatar’s LNG export capacity has been damaged, sidelining approximately 12.8 million tonnes of production for the next three to five years. This is expected to translate into a 14–15% reduction in liquid helium exports. Pranav Master, senior practice leader and director at Crisil Intelligence, told TOI that global helium production, estimated at around 190 million cubic metres annually, is highly concentrated, led by the United States at approximately 43% and Qatar at about 34%.“Qatar’s exports are reliant on the Strait of Hormuz, which is currently a critical chokepoint… recent disruptions in LNG infrastructure, particularly at Ras Laffan, can lead to constrained global supply,” he said, adding that sectors such as semiconductors, MRI systems and other cryogenic applications are particularly vulnerable. He also pointed to the 2017 Qatar blockade as a precedent, when similar disruptions led to production halts and price spikes.
No Helium, try replacing it?
Despite its critical role, helium has no easy substitute, which makes the current crisis even more severe.Helium is a non-renewable resource formed over billions of years through radioactive decay deep within the Earth’s crust. It is trapped in natural gas fields and released during extraction. Once it escapes into the atmosphere, it is lost forever, as its extremely light atoms drift into space.

This means existing reserves are all that humanity currently has to meet demand. Unlike other industrial gases, helium cannot be manufactured in a lab at scale, nor can it be easily replaced in applications that require its unique properties, such as ultra-low temperature cooling and inert environments.The ongoing crisis has accelerated efforts to diversify helium supply and develop alternatives.New “primary helium” exploration projects are being pursued in countries such as Tanzania, Canada and the United States, where helium is extracted as the primary resource rather than as a by-product of natural gas.Russia’s Amur gas processing plant, designed to be a major global supplier, is expected to expand capacity with an additional production train by the third quarter of 2026. However, geopolitical tensions and sanctions complicate its accessibility for many countries.In India, Engineers India Limited has signed an agreement to establish the country’s first helium recovery demonstration plant in Kuthalam, Tamil Nadu. Meanwhile, researchers at NIT Durgapur are exploring helium extraction from geothermal hot springs in West Bengal and Jharkhand, where concentrations are significantly higher than typical gas fields.Technological innovation is also underway. Companies such as Siemens and Philips are developing low-helium or helium-free MRI systems using closed-loop cooling technologies. However, these systems currently account for less than 5% of the global installed base, limiting their immediate impact.

The 2026 crisis has therefore highlighted a deeper issue, not just scarcity, but the lack of alternatives. As supply chains tighten and disruptions continue, industries across healthcare, semiconductors and advanced technology are left grappling with a resource that is both essential and irreplaceable.
What Helium supply crunch could mean for India
For India, the helium crisis may result in tangible consequences. As the country heavily relies on imports from Qatar for this non-renewable gas used to cool MRI magnets, hospitals and imaging centres are preparing for tighter supplies as inventories stay low and global logistics grow increasingly uncertain. According to Master, “key downstream industries which may get affected due to restricted helium supply include semiconductors, MRI/medical, other industries requiring helium as cryogenic coolant. Consequently, geopolitical disruptions in the Middle East can affect helium supply across critical high-tech and healthcare industries.”Healthcare impact: What will happen to MRI scannings?India’s healthcare system is heavily dependent on helium for magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). Each MRI scanner requires approximately 2,000 litres of liquid helium to maintain superconducting magnets at around 4 kelvin (-269°C).As of March 2026, helium spot prices in India have surged by 70–100%, forcing diagnostic centres to reassess costs and operations. There are growing concerns about “quenched” magnets, a failure that occurs when cooling is lost, causing superconductivity to break down and resulting in expensive repairs.

“Helium is not only a technical requirement for MRI systems; it is also important to keep the magnet superconductive and the machine functional,” Dr. Kamlesh Kumar, associate consultant, radiodiagnosis at Regency Hospital told TOI.“Any prolonged shortage or disruption… can create serious operational challenges for hospitals… leading to higher maintenance costs, delays in servicing, rescheduling of non-emergency scans and pressure on diagnostic infrastructure,” the doctor further added.He added that in India, where timely diagnosis often determines treatment outcomes, even temporary disruptions can significantly affect patient care. While newer MRI technologies are becoming more helium-efficient, a large installed base still depends on stable supply chains.India’s semiconductor sector The helium shortage also threatens India’s semiconductor ambitions at a critical juncture. Back in August 2025, the government approved four semiconductor manufacturing units with investments worth Rs 4,600 crore.Helium plays a vital role in semiconductor production. It is used for wafer cooling during high-temperature processes, maintaining inert environments to prevent contamination, and detecting microscopic leaks in high-vacuum systems due to its extremely small atomic size.Without a steady supply of ultra-high-purity helium, these processes cannot function reliably, raising concerns about delays and disruptions in the country’s efforts to become a global chip manufacturing hub.

Global tech ecosystem faces bottlenecks
The impact of the helium shortage is being felt across the global technology ecosystem.High-capacity data storage devices, particularly hard drives above 10 terabytes, rely on helium-filled enclosures to reduce internal friction and improve efficiency. Manufacturers have already indicated that production capacity for 2026 is fully allocated, leaving limited room for additional demand.Helium is also used in advanced cooling systems for large-scale data centres and high-performance computing clusters, including those used to train next-generation artificial intelligence models.In the semiconductor sector, major manufacturers such as those in South Korea depend heavily on Qatari helium supplies. With limited inventory buffers, prolonged disruptions could lead to production slowdowns, potentially affecting the global supply of consumer electronics such as smartphones and laptops.

Bottom line: Is the world running out of Helium?
And the answer is no, technically. However, logistically and economically, it is almost a strong yes.It all comes down to the nature of the element itself. The Earth isn’t about to run out of helium completely. it is still being produced slowly over time through the radioactive decay of elements like uranium and thorium, which release alpha particles that form helium-4. There are also known reserves in places like Tanzania, Canada and the United States.But here’s the catch: that’s all we have. Helium cannot simply be manufactured in a lab or scaled up on demand, let alone the little element takes million of years to form. Once it’s used and released, it’s gone for good. So while a total wipeout isn’t on the cards, shortages very much are, and already happening.So the world is not really running out of Helium, but scrambling with Helium shortage. The real issue isn’t just how much helium exists, but how fragile the system is that delivers it.Helium production, liquefaction and transport run on a tightly choreographed, just-in-time setup with almost no room for error. The Middle East crisis has shown just how quickly things can fall apart when key infrastructure is hit or critical trade routes are disrupted.And unlike oil, there’s no big emergency stash to fall back on. That leaves industries, from hospitals and chipmakers to AI labs, surprisingly exposed to a tiny, invisible gas that the world can’t afford to lose.
Business
Saudi Arabia pumps 7 million bpd via east-west pipeline amid Hormuz disruption – The Times of India
Saudi Arabia has brought its East-West pipeline into full operation, pushing 7 million barrels of oil a day through the route as it works to maintain supplies following the effective shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz, a person familiar with the matter said. The pipeline, which runs across the kingdom to the Red Sea, has become central to efforts to keep exports moving. Oil shipments are now being rerouted to Yanbu, where tankers are loading crude for international markets, offering a crucial alternative at a time when the main passage has been disrupted, Bloomberg reported. According to the person cited by the agency, crude shipments from Yanbu have reached about 5 million barrels a day. In addition, between 700,000 and 900,000 barrels a day of refined products are being exported. Of the total volume transported via the pipeline, around 2 million barrels a day is directed to domestic refineries.Though, even at full capacity, the route does not fully replace the volumes previously shipped through Hormuz, which handled roughly 15 million barrels a day before the war, the availability of this alternative has helped limit the extent of price increases compared to earlier supply disruptions. Market concerns are now shifting towards the Red Sea after Yemen’s Houthis said they are entering the war. While there has been no indication of plans to target vessels passing through the Red Sea or the Bab El-Mandeb strait, the group has in the past threatened shipping in the region using drones and missiles. Saudi Arabia had long prepared for a scenario in which Hormuz could be shut. Its contingency plan was put into action within hours of the first US and Israeli strikes on Iran, with flows along the east-west pipeline increasing steadily since then. The pipeline stretches more than 1,000 kilometres (620 miles) from oil-producing regions in the east of the country to Yanbu on the Red Sea coast. It was originally developed in response to risks highlighted during the 1980s Iran-Iraq war, when tanker attacks disrupted movement through the Strait, though the current situation has led to a near-closure on a scale not seen before.
Business
From office desks to dark streets: How the oil crunch is reshaping daily life in different nations – The Times of India
A month into the Middle East conflict, its ripple effects are felt across economies worldwide. The crisis was triggered on February 28, when the United States and Israel launched joint strikes on Iran, setting off a chain of events that has tightened Tehran’s grip over the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz. This narrow sea passage, linking the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea, remains one of the world’s most critical energy routes. At its narrowest, it spans just 29 nautical miles, with limited navigable channels for shipping.Carrying around 20 million barrels of oil daily, nearly a quarter of global seaborne trade, any disruption here has far-reaching consequences. As supplies come under strain, countries are scrambling to manage the fallout while cushioning consumers through a mix of policy responses. While some have raised fuel prices, others restructured taxes to protect consumers.
Vietnam
Vietnam consumers have breathed a sigh of relief as the country has lowered fuel prices. Faced with a sharp spike in fuel costs, Vietnam rolled out emergency measures to bring costs under control. Authorities have suspended environmental protection taxes on petrol, diesel and aviation fuel until mid-April, in a bid to steady the domestic market. The trade ministry described the step as “an urgent and effective solution to stabilize the petroleum market and ensure national energy security amidst the escalating conflict in the Strait of Hormuz, which is creating the ‘biggest energy bottleneck ever’.” The move has led to a steep fall in prices, with petrol dropping by roughly 26% and diesel by more than 15% after earlier surges.
Venezuela
In Venezuela, prolonged high temperatures have intensified pressure on an already strained power system, prompting the government to scale back activity. Interim president Delcy Rodriguez announced a week-long suspension of work across the public sector, including education, as part of an electricity-saving drive. “During this Holy Week, I want to announce that I have decreed days off on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday for the entire education sector,” she said, adding that the country had endured “45 days of high temperatures.” While essential services will remain operational, the step reflects ongoing challenges in managing electricity demand.
India
In India, the government has taken a range of steps to cushion consumers and companies from the ongoing energy supply crisis. With refining costs climbing sharply, the government reduced excise duty on petrol and diesel by Rs 10 per litre each, despite the impact on state revenues. At the same time, export duties were introduced on diesel and aviation turbine fuel to manage supply pressures. Officials insisted there is no shortage of petrol, diesel or LPG, dismissing claims of disruption as a “coordinated misinformation campaign.” Domestic LPG availability remains stable, with production increased and states asked to expand commercial distribution.
Pakistan
Pakistan is facing mounting pressure from rising fuel costs, with the government adjusting prices selectively while trying to shield consumers. Kerosene prices have been increased by PKR 4.66 per litre to PKR 433.40, effective March 28, even as petrol and diesel rates remain unchanged at PKR 321.17 and PKR 335.86 per litre. Authorities said the decision aims to protect consumers from global price swings, with the state absorbing part of the burden through payments of PKR 95.59 per litre on petrol and PKR 203.88 per litre on diesel to oil marketing companies.At the same time, aviation fuel prices have surged sharply, rising for the fifth time in 28 days. A latest increase of PKR 5 per litre has pushed jet fuel to a record PKR 476.97 per litre, up from PKR 188 at the start of March — a jump of PKR 288. Airlines have already raised fares, with domestic one-way tickets on routes such as Karachi-Islamabad and Karachi-Lahore reaching up to PKR 40,000, while “chance seat” fares have surged by as much as 150%. Amid these pressures, work patterns are also adjusting in response to the energy strain, with measures aimed at reducing overall fuel consumption forming part of the wider response.
Egypt
Egypt has introduced a series of temporary restrictions to reduce energy consumption as fuel costs climb. Retail outlets, restaurants and cafes are now required to shut by 21:00 each night, alongside measures such as reduced street lighting and limited remote working. The government termed these “exceptional measures” in response to mounting pressure on energy supplies. Egyptian PM Mostafa Madbouly said that the country’s petrol expenditure had more than doubled in recent months. Although tourism-related businesses are exempt, the wider economy is feeling the strain, particularly due to reliance on imported fuel.
Sri Lanka
Sri Lanka is tightening energy use as supply disruptions continue to strain the country’s fuel system. With around 60 percent of its energy imported and limited reserves covering barely a month, authorities have reintroduced a QR-based rationing system. Weekly limits have been set, including eight litres for motorbikes, 20 for tuk-tuks, 25 for cars, 100 litres of diesel for buses and 200 for lorries. Fuel prices have also risen by about 33 percent since the start of the war, adding pressure on households.To curb consumption, the government has introduced a no-work-on-Wednesday policy, shutting offices and schools on that day. Alongside fuel shortages, Sri Lankan citizens are also struggling with disrupted fertiliser supplies which could push food prices higher, with estimates pointing to a potential 15% increase, further compounding the cost-of-living strain.
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