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The US economy is a puzzle but the pieces aren’t fitting together

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The US economy is a puzzle but the pieces aren’t fitting together


Bloomberg/Getty A female shopper with long brown hair at the Broadway Plaza Shopping Center in Walnut Creek, California, walking on the sidewalk carrying shopping bagsBloomberg/Getty

Ask almost any economist and they will tell you: US President Donald Trump has been running risks with the world’s largest economy.

They say his tariffs and crackdown on immigrants risk a return of 1970s-esque “stagflation”, when a sudden oil shock prompted stagnant growth and spiralling prices, except this time the crisis would be self-inflicted.

The White House has just as steadfastly dismissed those concerns, attacking the experts – and, in the case of the US Bureau of Labor Statistics commissioner, firing her.

Questions about how it will all play out have left the US central bank in a state of paralysis, as it waits for data to clarify what’s happening before making a move on interest rates.

But after a busy few weeks of company updates, data on jobs and inflation, we still don’t really know.

The labour market is sending clearly worrisome signals.

Job creation was almost non-existent in May and June, sluggish in July, and the ranks of discouraged workers are growing.

That 1 August jobs report sent the stock market sinking and Trump into a tailspin, prompting him to fire the BLS commissioner.

A few days later, Moody’s Analytics economist Mark Zandi declared on social media that the economy was “on the precipice of a recession”.

That’s not the consensus.

For sure, the economy has slowed, growing at an annual rate of 1.2% in the first half of the year, down one percentage point from 2024.

But consumer spending, despite weakening, has stayed more resilient than many had expected, despite downbeat assessments by some firms.

Shares, after the 1 August hit, quickly resumed their upward march.

“We continue to struggle to see signs of weakness,” the chief financial officer of JPMorgan Chase, America’s biggest bank, told investors last month. “The consumer basically seems to be fine.”

That has raised hopes that the economy might power through, as it did a few years ago, to widespread surprise, despite getting hit with the highest inflation since the 1980s and a sharp rise in interest rates.

On Friday, the US government reported that spending at retailers and restaurants rose 0.5% from June to July – and that spending in June had been stronger than previously estimated.

“Consumers are down but not out,” wrote Michael Pearce, deputy chief US economist at Oxford Economics, which is predicting a modest recovery in spending in the months ahead, as tax cuts and a stock market recovery boost confidence.

“With the sluggish yet resilient real economy, the labor market is unlikely to deteriorate sharply.”

Challenges remain in the months ahead.

For now, households haven’t seen a dramatic run-up in prices at the store that might force them to cut back.

Consumer prices rose 2.7% in July compared with a year ago, the same pace as in June.

But many forecasters had not expected higher prices to start appearing until later this year, especially after Trump delayed some of his most aggressive tariff plans until this month.

Prices for hard-to-substitute, imported staples, like coffee and bananas, have already jumped.

Forecasters expect price increases to widen in the months ahead, as firms sell down pre-tariff stock and raise prices, now that they have more confidence about what the tariff policies might be.

That’s why there was so much focus on the producer price index, which measures wholesale prices commanded by US producers before they hit consumers, offering a clue to what’s coming.

It accelerated at the fastest pace in more than three years in July.

And worryingly, both consumer and producer inflation show the uptick in prices is not limited to goods, suggesting stagflation might very well be staging a return.



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Private sector data: Over 2 lakh private companies closed in 5 years; govt flags monitoring for suspicious cases – The Times of India

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Private sector data: Over 2 lakh private companies closed in 5 years; govt flags monitoring for suspicious cases – The Times of India


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NEW DELHI: The government on Monday said that over the past five years, more than two lakh private companies have been closed in India.According to data provided by Minister of State for Corporate Affairs Harsh Malhotra in a written reply to the Lok Sabha, a total of 2,04,268 private companies were shut down between 2020-21 and 2024-25 due to amalgamation, conversion, dissolution or being struck off from official records under the Companies Act, 2013.Regarding the rehabilitation of employees from these closed companies, the minister said there is currently no proposal before the government, as reported by PTI. In the same period, 1,85,350 companies were officially removed from government records, including 8,648 entities struck off till July 16 this fiscal year. Companies can be removed from records if they are inactive for long periods or voluntarily after fulfilling regulatory requirements.On queries about shell companies and their potential use in money laundering, Malhotra highlighted that the term “shell company” is not defined under the Companies Act, 2013. However, he added that whenever suspicious instances are reported, they are shared with other government agencies such as the Enforcement Directorate and the Income Tax Department for monitoring.A major push to remove inactive companies took place in 2022-23, when 82,125 companies were struck off during a strike-off drive by the corporate affairs ministry.The minister also highlighted the government’s broader policy to simplify and rationalize the tax system. “It is the stated policy of the government to gradually phase out exemptions and deductions while rationalising tax rates to create a simple, transparent, and equitable tax regime,” he said. He added that several reforms have been undertaken to promote investment and ease of doing business, including substantial reductions in corporate tax rates for existing and new domestic companies.





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Pakistan’s Textile Exports Reach Historic High in FY2025-26 – SUCH TV

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Pakistan’s Textile Exports Reach Historic High in FY2025-26 – SUCH TV



Pakistan’s textile exports surged to $6.4 billion during the first four months of the 2025-26 fiscal year, marking the highest trade volume for the sector in this period.

According to the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS), value-added textile sectors were key contributors to the growth.

Knitwear exports reached $1.9 billion, while ready-made garments contributed $1.4 billion.

Significant increases were observed across several commodities: cotton yarn exports rose 7.74% to $238.9 million, and raw cotton exports jumped 100%, reaching $2.6 million from zero exports the previous year.

Other notable gains included tents, canvas, and tarpaulins, up 32.34% to $53.48 million, while ready-made garments increased 5.11% to $1.43 billion.

Exports of made-up textile articles, excluding towels and bedwear, rose 4.17%, totaling $274.75 million.

The report also mentioned that the growth in textile exports is a result of improved global demand and stability in the value of the Pakistani rupee.



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Peel Hunt cheers ‘positive steps’ in Budget to boost London market and investing

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Peel Hunt cheers ‘positive steps’ in Budget to boost London market and investing



UK investment bank Peel Hunt has given some support to under-pressure Chancellor Rachel Reeves over last week’s Budget as it said efforts to boost the London market and invest in UK companies were “positive steps”.

Peel Hunt welcomed moves announced in the Budget, such as the stamp duty exemption for shares bought in newly listed firms on the London market and changes to Isa investing.

It comes as Ms Reeves has been forced to defend herself against claims she misled voters by talking up the scale of the fiscal challenge in the run-up to last week’s Budget, in which she announced £26 billion worth of tax rises.

Peel Hunt said: “Following a prolonged period of pre-Budget speculation, businesses and investors now have greater clarity from which they can start to plan.

“The key measures were generally well received by markets, particularly the creation of additional headroom against the Chancellor’s fiscal rules.

“Initiatives such as a stamp duty holiday on initial public offerings (IPOs) and adjustments to the Isa framework are intended to support UK capital markets and encourage investment in British companies.

“These developments, alongside the Entrepreneurship in the UK paper published simultaneously, represent positive steps toward enhancing the UK’s attractiveness for growth businesses and long-term investors.”

Ms Reeves last week announced a three-year stamp duty holiday on shares bought in new UK flotations as part of a raft of measures to boost investment in UK shares.

She also unveiled a change to the individual savings account (Isa) limit that lowers the cash element to £12,000 with the remaining £8,000 now redirected into stocks and shares.

But the Chancellor also revealed an unexpected increase in dividend tax, rising by 2% for basic and higher rate taxpayers next year, which experts have warned “undermines the drive to increase investing in Britain”.

Peel Hunt said the London IPO market had begun to revive in the autumn, although listings activity remained low during its first half to the end of September.

Firms that have listed in London over recent months include The Beauty Tech Group, small business lender Shawbrook and tinned tuna firm Princes.

Peel Hunt added that deal activity had “continued at pace” throughout its first half, with 60 transactions announced across the market during that time and 10 active bids for FTSE 350 companies, as at the end of September.

Half-year results for Peel Hunt showed pre-tax profits jumped to £11.5 million in the six months to September 30, up from £1.2 million a year earlier, as revenues lifted 38.3%.

Peel Hunt said its workforce has been cut by nearly 10% since the end of March under an ongoing savings drive, with full-year underlying fixed costs down by around £5 million.

Steven Fine, chief executive of Peel Hunt, said: “The second half has started strongly, with the group continuing to play leading roles across both mergers and acquisitions and equity capital markets mandates.”



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