Business
The US economy is a puzzle but the pieces aren’t fitting together
Bloomberg/GettyAsk almost any economist and they will tell you: US President Donald Trump has been running risks with the world’s largest economy.
They say his tariffs and crackdown on immigrants risk a return of 1970s-esque “stagflation”, when a sudden oil shock prompted stagnant growth and spiralling prices, except this time the crisis would be self-inflicted.
The White House has just as steadfastly dismissed those concerns, attacking the experts – and, in the case of the US Bureau of Labor Statistics commissioner, firing her.
Questions about how it will all play out have left the US central bank in a state of paralysis, as it waits for data to clarify what’s happening before making a move on interest rates.
But after a busy few weeks of company updates, data on jobs and inflation, we still don’t really know.
The labour market is sending clearly worrisome signals.
Job creation was almost non-existent in May and June, sluggish in July, and the ranks of discouraged workers are growing.
That 1 August jobs report sent the stock market sinking and Trump into a tailspin, prompting him to fire the BLS commissioner.
A few days later, Moody’s Analytics economist Mark Zandi declared on social media that the economy was “on the precipice of a recession”.
That’s not the consensus.
For sure, the economy has slowed, growing at an annual rate of 1.2% in the first half of the year, down one percentage point from 2024.
But consumer spending, despite weakening, has stayed more resilient than many had expected, despite downbeat assessments by some firms.
Shares, after the 1 August hit, quickly resumed their upward march.
“We continue to struggle to see signs of weakness,” the chief financial officer of JPMorgan Chase, America’s biggest bank, told investors last month. “The consumer basically seems to be fine.”
That has raised hopes that the economy might power through, as it did a few years ago, to widespread surprise, despite getting hit with the highest inflation since the 1980s and a sharp rise in interest rates.
On Friday, the US government reported that spending at retailers and restaurants rose 0.5% from June to July – and that spending in June had been stronger than previously estimated.
“Consumers are down but not out,” wrote Michael Pearce, deputy chief US economist at Oxford Economics, which is predicting a modest recovery in spending in the months ahead, as tax cuts and a stock market recovery boost confidence.
“With the sluggish yet resilient real economy, the labor market is unlikely to deteriorate sharply.”
Challenges remain in the months ahead.
For now, households haven’t seen a dramatic run-up in prices at the store that might force them to cut back.
Consumer prices rose 2.7% in July compared with a year ago, the same pace as in June.
But many forecasters had not expected higher prices to start appearing until later this year, especially after Trump delayed some of his most aggressive tariff plans until this month.
Prices for hard-to-substitute, imported staples, like coffee and bananas, have already jumped.
Forecasters expect price increases to widen in the months ahead, as firms sell down pre-tariff stock and raise prices, now that they have more confidence about what the tariff policies might be.
That’s why there was so much focus on the producer price index, which measures wholesale prices commanded by US producers before they hit consumers, offering a clue to what’s coming.
It accelerated at the fastest pace in more than three years in July.
And worryingly, both consumer and producer inflation show the uptick in prices is not limited to goods, suggesting stagflation might very well be staging a return.
NEW DELHI: People with job cards assigned under Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Guarantee Scheme will be able to get work without disruption when transition takes place to new rural employment framework under Viksit Bharat-Guarantee for Rozgar and Aajeevika Mission (Gramin) Act.Even though exact timeframe is not known yet, rural development ministry officials said the VB-G RAM G scheme will come into force in the coming financial year after the Centre frames and notifies the rules. After govt notifies the Act’s commencement date, states will get six months to make their schemes to enable implementation of the law.To ensure there is no disruption and job guarantee is upheld during transition from MGNREGA, it has been proposed to enable workers to use the same job cards issued under MGNREGA with Aadhaar-based eKYC.The officials said that as of now, around 75% of job cards have been verified with eKYC under the ongoing scheme. Moreover, ongoing projects under MGNREGA, if incomplete when the transition happens to the new scheme, would stay on course.Meanwhile, work is on to frame rules, lay out regulations on normative allocations, fund flow plan, IT framework, a national-level steering panel and social audits.Under the new law, focus will be on transparency to weed out leakages and duplicacy of work,the social audit system will be strengthened, and technology leveraged to create systems to establish work progress, timely wage payment and accountability through ‘e-measurement’ books, sources said. Demand for work will have to be entered on a digital platform. Officials made it clear the new law in no way interferes with demand-driven character of the scheme.
Business
Gurugram Attracts Rs 86,588 Crore In Real Estate Investments In 2025 As RERA Clears 131 Projects
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Alongside rising investments, Gurugram RERA strengthened regulatory oversight to safeguard homebuyer and investor interests
Gurgaon Real Estate (Representative Image)
Gurugram emerged as one of India’s top real estate investment destinations in 2025, with projects worth Rs 86,588 crore receiving regulatory approvals during the year, according to data from the Gurugram Real Estate Regulatory Authority (Gurugram RERA).
Market observers said the numbers reflect strong investor confidence in the NCR’s largest commercial and residential hub.
Gurugram RERA registered 131 projects in calendar year 2025, representing development potential of 35,455 units across housing and commercial segments.
A striking feature of the data was the dominance of large-ticket projects. Just 28 major developments accounted for investments worth Rs 59,360 crore, highlighting the growing influence of institutional capital and large developers in shaping Gurugram’s property market.
Residential assets continued to attract the bulk of investment interest. Of the total units approved, 31,455 were residential, underscoring sustained end-user demand and long-term confidence in the city’s housing fundamentals.
According to Authority data, the residential mix included 17,405 group housing units, 5,720 mixed land use units, 4,040 residential floor units, 2,122 affordable group housing units, 1,954 units under the Deen Dayal housing scheme, and 214 residential plotted colony units.
Market observers said this diversified supply pipeline indicates capital deployment across both premium and mass segments, helping reduce concentration risk and deepen market resilience.
On the commercial side, Gurugram RERA approved about 4,000 commercial units, of which 168 were dedicated to IT parks, reinforcing Gurugram’s position as a preferred hub for technology firms and Global Capability Centres.
Analysts noted that the combination of office-led employment growth and residential expansion continues to make Gurugram attractive for long-term capital deployment.
Industry experts said the scale of investments approved in 2025 highlights Gurugram’s ability to attract capital despite global uncertainty, supported by infrastructure growth, a strong corporate base and an improving regulatory environment.
“With a large pipeline of approved projects and sustained interest from developers and institutional investors, Gurugram is expected to remain a key real estate investment destination in the coming years,” a Gurugram-based real estate expert said.
Tighter regulatory checks
Alongside rising investments, Gurugram RERA strengthened regulatory oversight to enhance transparency and safeguard homebuyer and investor interests.
“These steps included stricter scrutiny of developer submissions, mandatory site inspections by domain experts, and public consultation through mandatory notices before project registration,” an Authority official said.
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January 16, 2026, 07:44 IST
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National Startup Day highlights India’s thriving startup ecosystem, celebrating innovation, entrepreneurship and job creation driven by founders, unicorns and Startup India mission
National Startup Day 2026 honours Indian startups, entrepreneurs and innovators driving economic growth and job creation.
National Startup Day 2026: India’s startup ecosystem has evolved into one of the world’s most vibrant and promising innovation hubs. To recognise the contribution of entrepreneurs, founders and startups transforming ideas into impactful solutions, National Startup Day is observed every year on January 16 across the country.
Launched by Prime Minister Narendra Modi in 2022, the day celebrates visionary entrepreneurs who play a crucial role in economic growth, employment generation and technological advancement.
National Startup Day serves as a reminder that innovation, backed by determination and policy support, can reshape society and create global impact.
National Startup Day 2026 Theme
The official theme for National Startup Day 2026 is yet to be announced. However, the core focus areas are expected to revolve around:
- Innovation and emerging technologies
- Entrepreneurship and leadership
- Self-reliance (Atmanirbhar Bharat)
- Startup India Mission
- Youth empowerment
- Job creation
How Startups Are Shaping India’s Future
India currently ranks as the third-largest startup ecosystem globally, with over 1.59 lakh startups recognised by the Department for Promotion of Industry and Internal Trade (DPIIT) as of early 2025. Backed by 100+ unicorns, the ecosystem continues to grow rapidly.
Metro cities such as Bengaluru, Hyderabad, Mumbai and Delhi-NCR lead this expansion, while Tier-2 and Tier-3 cities are emerging as new innovation centres, adding diversity and scale to India’s entrepreneurial journey.
Startups across fintech, edtech, health-tech, e-commerce and deep-tech are addressing real-world challenges and gaining global recognition. Technologies like artificial intelligence, blockchain and IoT are increasingly driving innovation, according to Startup India ecosystem reports.
Industry-Wise Startup Impact
DPIIT-recognised startups have generated over 16.6 lakh direct jobs across sectors as of October 31, 2024, strengthening India’s employment landscape.
- IT Services: 2.04 lakh jobs
- Healthcare & Life Sciences: 1.47 lakh jobs
- Commercial & Professional Services: 94,000 jobs
Through the Startup India initiative, the government continues to focus on skill development, funding access, ecosystem collaboration and global outreach.
Key Initiatives Under Startup India
- Capacity building and mentorship
- Outreach and awareness programmes
- Ecosystem development events
- International exposure and global linkages
- Collaboration between startups, corporates and institutions.
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January 16, 2026, 07:00 IST
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