Business
The US economy is a puzzle but the pieces aren’t fitting together
Bloomberg/GettyAsk almost any economist and they will tell you: US President Donald Trump has been running risks with the world’s largest economy.
They say his tariffs and crackdown on immigrants risk a return of 1970s-esque “stagflation”, when a sudden oil shock prompted stagnant growth and spiralling prices, except this time the crisis would be self-inflicted.
The White House has just as steadfastly dismissed those concerns, attacking the experts – and, in the case of the US Bureau of Labor Statistics commissioner, firing her.
Questions about how it will all play out have left the US central bank in a state of paralysis, as it waits for data to clarify what’s happening before making a move on interest rates.
But after a busy few weeks of company updates, data on jobs and inflation, we still don’t really know.
The labour market is sending clearly worrisome signals.
Job creation was almost non-existent in May and June, sluggish in July, and the ranks of discouraged workers are growing.
That 1 August jobs report sent the stock market sinking and Trump into a tailspin, prompting him to fire the BLS commissioner.
A few days later, Moody’s Analytics economist Mark Zandi declared on social media that the economy was “on the precipice of a recession”.
That’s not the consensus.
For sure, the economy has slowed, growing at an annual rate of 1.2% in the first half of the year, down one percentage point from 2024.
But consumer spending, despite weakening, has stayed more resilient than many had expected, despite downbeat assessments by some firms.
Shares, after the 1 August hit, quickly resumed their upward march.
“We continue to struggle to see signs of weakness,” the chief financial officer of JPMorgan Chase, America’s biggest bank, told investors last month. “The consumer basically seems to be fine.”
That has raised hopes that the economy might power through, as it did a few years ago, to widespread surprise, despite getting hit with the highest inflation since the 1980s and a sharp rise in interest rates.
On Friday, the US government reported that spending at retailers and restaurants rose 0.5% from June to July – and that spending in June had been stronger than previously estimated.
“Consumers are down but not out,” wrote Michael Pearce, deputy chief US economist at Oxford Economics, which is predicting a modest recovery in spending in the months ahead, as tax cuts and a stock market recovery boost confidence.
“With the sluggish yet resilient real economy, the labor market is unlikely to deteriorate sharply.”
Challenges remain in the months ahead.
For now, households haven’t seen a dramatic run-up in prices at the store that might force them to cut back.
Consumer prices rose 2.7% in July compared with a year ago, the same pace as in June.
But many forecasters had not expected higher prices to start appearing until later this year, especially after Trump delayed some of his most aggressive tariff plans until this month.
Prices for hard-to-substitute, imported staples, like coffee and bananas, have already jumped.
Forecasters expect price increases to widen in the months ahead, as firms sell down pre-tariff stock and raise prices, now that they have more confidence about what the tariff policies might be.
That’s why there was so much focus on the producer price index, which measures wholesale prices commanded by US producers before they hit consumers, offering a clue to what’s coming.
It accelerated at the fastest pace in more than three years in July.
And worryingly, both consumer and producer inflation show the uptick in prices is not limited to goods, suggesting stagflation might very well be staging a return.
Tesco Pet Insurance, who provided the cover, says “the cost of claims is one of a number of factors that can affect the price of a policy at renewal” and also noted Tilly’s age had been reflected in the quote. It says the couple had a more comprehensive policy, which typically costs more than basic levels of cover, and that alternative options were presented to Fawcett and Neild.
The UK must not “cut ourselves off” from trade opportunities in China despite security and business risks, the head of the Confederation for British Industry has warned.
CBI chief Rain Newton-Smith highlighted that British businesses see increased trade with Chinese firms as an opportunity to drive growth.
Her remarks came as business leaders were questioned by MPs on Parliament’s Business and Trade Select Committee regarding the UK’s economic relationship with China.
Last December, Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer admitted China poses security threats to the UK but urged for greater business ties.
Ms Newton-Smith, chief executive of one of the UK’s largest business groups, was positive about the Government’s engagement with China.
“You can’t have a growth strategy without a strategy for China,” she said.
“China has the biggest contribution to global growth, is the third largest trading partner, and the world’s largest consumer market.
“The UK is second largest exporter of trade and services.
“We are mindful as all businesses are of security risks but it is really important that we have a strategy towards China.
“This Government has increased the economic engagement with China and including business within this does help us as a country.”
She added: “If we think about the future economy, there is a huge market in China and I think we mustn’t cut ourselves off from some of the opportunities there, even if in some areas there are difficult conversations and negotiations that need to be had.”
Peter Burnett, chief executive of the China-Britain Business Council, told the committee: “There are risks associated with technology advancement, AI, industrial development that they need to assess.
“Increasingly you will find them saying that they need to engage more in China to understand those risks and to develop some of the technologies along some of those risks themselves.”
Business
Trump says he’d be disappointed if Fed pick doesn’t cut rates; Warsh vows to be ‘independent actor’ – The Times of India
US President Donald Trump on Tuesday said he would be disappointed if his nominee for Federal Reserve chair, Kevin Warsh, does not cut interest rates right away after taking office if confirmed by the Senate. Trump, during an interview with CNBC’s “Squawk Box,” also said “we have to find out” about the construction costs of the new Federal Reserve building.Warsh, a former Federal Reserve official and financier, is currently facing Senate confirmation hearings where he has stressed his independence from political pressure.“The president never once asked me to commit to any particular interest rate decision, and nor would I agree to it if he had,” Kevin Warsh said under questioning by the Senate Banking Committee, as quoted by LA Times. “I will be an independent actor if confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve.”Warsh told lawmakers that fighting inflation would be one of his main priorities if confirmed.“Congress tasked the Fed with the mission to ensure price stability, without excuse or equivocation, argument or anguish,” Warsh said. “Inflation is a choice, and the Fed must take responsibility for it.”The comments come as investors closely watch his confirmation hearing, with inflation remaining at 3.3% annually and global tensions, including the war in Iran pushing up gas prices, adding pressure on the economy. Higher inflation typically leads the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates steady or raise them rather than cut them, as rate changes affect mortgages, auto loans, and business borrowing.Democrats on the Senate Banking Committee accused Warsh of shifting his stance on interest rates over time, supporting higher rates under Democratic presidents and lower rates during Trump’s presidency.Warsh, if confirmed, would take over at a time when inflation pressures make it difficult for the Federal Reserve to cut rates, even as Trump continues to push for lower borrowing costs. Trump has repeatedly urged rate cuts and has long clashed with current Fed chair Jerome Powell over monetary policy. Powell has also been the subject of a Department of Justice criminal probe after refusing Trump’s requests for faster rate cuts. Trump told CNBC that he does not plan to pressure the Justice Department to end that probe.
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