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As EU and India move closer, where does Pakistan stand? | The Express Tribune

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As EU and India move closer, where does Pakistan stand? | The Express Tribune


Islamabad should prepare for comprehensive trade deal with Brussels rather than relying on preferences alone

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi arrive for a photo opportunity ahead of their meeting at the Hyderabad House in New Delhi, India, on Feb 28, 2025. PHOTO: REUTERS


ISLAMABAD:

At a time when headlines are dominated by higher tariffs and economic nationalism, the proposed free trade agreement between the European Union and India sends a different signal. It suggests that global trade is not ending but changing shape. Countries still seek access to large markets, predictable rules, and reliable partners. The EU-India talks reflect this search for stability in an uncertain global economy.

Negotiations between the two sides have continued for nearly two decades, with long periods of slow progress. What finally created momentum was a shift in the global trade environment. The United States raised tariffs on several partners, with some affected more than others. Indian exports to the US, particularly textiles and clothing, faced an additional tariff of up to 50%. This disrupted orders and encouraged buyers to look for alternative suppliers.

The EU also faced new US tariffs of around 15% on products such as cars, machinery, pharmaceuticals, and luxury goods, many of which face high protection in India. As a result, both sides saw greater value in advancing their own agreement and reducing dependence on the US market. The economic base for such a deal is already substantial. Bilateral trade in goods stands at around $136 billion. The EU is India’s largest trading partner, accounting for about 17% of India’s goods exports, valued at roughly $76 billion, while India imports around $60 billion from the EU. India’s exports to Europe are also diverse, spanning electronics, chemicals, fuels, machinery, iron and steel, pharmaceuticals, gems and jewellery, as well as textiles and clothing. This diversity gives India a strong platform to benefit from deeper market access.

For Pakistan, these developments naturally raise important questions. The EU is Pakistan’s largest export market, absorbing more than 27% of its exports, or about $8.8 billion in fiscal year 2025. Pakistan currently enjoys duty-free access on over 85% of its exports under the GSP Plus scheme, which is secured until at least December 2027 and is now under consideration for renewal.

Pakistan’s exports to Europe are, however, highly concentrated. Around 70% consists of knitted and woven garments and home textiles such as shirts, jeans, bed linen, and towels. In these products, Pakistan currently benefits from a preference margin of around 5-9%. If the EU grants India similar or better access under an FTA, this margin could narrow, intensifying competition. For most other industrial products, EU tariffs are already low, limiting the value of preferences. There is also discussion around Basmati rice. Some fear that an EU-India agreement or changes to GSP Plus could hurt Pakistan’s rice exports. In practice, Pakistan’s main Basmati varieties already enter the EU at zero duty under the WTO commitments, and this is unlikely to change as a result of an EU-India deal. The more relevant concern relates to geographical indications. If India secures exclusive recognition for Basmati limited to its own varieties, Pakistan could face marketing and labelling challenges in Europe. This is primarily a legal and diplomatic issue, not a tariff one, and it requires active engagement.

The broader lesson lies in the changing nature of trade agreements. The EU-India deal is expected to cover over 95% of goods trade and extend into services, investment, and standards, aiming at deep and long-term integration. Pakistan’s agreements, by contrast, often cover less than 5% of tariff lines and rarely go beyond goods, limiting their economic impact. Even the agreement with China, Pakistan’s largest FTA, covers less than one-third of bilateral trade. India has also moved faster in building a network of trade agreements. In recent years, it has concluded or advanced deals with partners such as the UAE, the UK, and the EFTA countries, alongside existing agreements with Japan, South Korea, Australia, and Asean. Pakistan, by comparison, lacks FTAs with most major economies and remains relatively less integrated into global trade networks.

Another lesson is the risk of relying too heavily on unilateral preference schemes. GSP-type arrangements are conditional and subject to monitoring. They can be suspended or withdrawn. Many countries, including Vietnam and India, have therefore shifted towards reciprocal FTAs to secure more stable market access and greater policy certainty. The positive side is that Pakistan is now better placed to rethink its strategy. Gradual tariff reductions have lowered adjustment costs and made reciprocal agreements more feasible. This creates space to deepen existing agreements and pursue new ones with large markets such as the EU and the UK.

There is no immediate crisis. An EU-India agreement will still take time to enter into force, and tariff reductions will be phased in over several years. This provides Pakistan with some breathing room. That time should be used to improve export competitiveness by addressing practical constraints such as high energy costs, taxation, and access to finance. In the near term, safeguarding GSP Plus remains important. At the same time, Pakistan should prepare seriously for a comprehensive trade agreement with the EU rather than relying on preferences alone. The global trading system is reorganising around deeper partnerships and clearer rules. As others move ahead, standing still is not a safe option. Pakistan must choose between shaping its place in the emerging trade landscape or adjusting to decisions made by others.

The writer is a member of the Steering Committee on the Implementation of National Tariff Policy 2025-30. He has previously served as Pakistan’s ambassador to the WTO



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India’s $5 trillion economy push: How ‘C+1’ strategy could turn country into world’s factory

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India’s  trillion economy push: How ‘C+1’ strategy could turn country into world’s factory


New Delhi: India is preparing for a major economic transformation. The Union Budget 2026-27 lays out measures that could make the country the top choice for global manufacturing using the popular ‘China +1’ (C+1) strategy. This comes as international companies rethink supply chains after COVID-19 disruptions, rising trade tariffs and geopolitical tensions.

India has positioned itself as the backup factory for the world that is ready to absorb international demand in case of any crisis in China or Taiwan.

The government has offered tax breaks for cell phone, laptop, and semiconductor makers, making India more attractive to foreign investors. Reducing bureaucratic hurdles for global firms, the budget also strengthens the National Single Window System to simplify business procedures. The message is clear: India is ready to step in as a global manufacturing hub, ensuring supply continuity for the world.

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The expressway to a $5 trillion economy

China presently dominates about 40% of global manufacturing. Its factories supply critical products worldwide, but 2026 is expected to be a turning point. Expanding influence and economic opacity have made global companies seek alternatives.

India has leveraged this moment, offering a comprehensive incentive package for foreign manufacturers. Analysts call it more than policy; it is a blueprint to become a $5 trillion economy and reclaim India’s historic position as a global industrial leader.

Why the world needs India now

The COVID-19 pandemic exposed the dangers of over-reliance on a single supplier. When China halted medical exports, nations realised the need for diversified supply chains. Major companies such as Apple and Samsung now see India as a dependable alternative.

China’s aging workforce and rising labour costs further enhance India’s appeal. With 65% of its population under 35, India offers a vast, skilled and affordable workforce for decades. The geopolitical uncertainty surrounding Taiwan, which produces 90% of advanced chips, has also created demand for a secure manufacturing backup. India is stepping in to fill that gap.

How India stands to gain from China’s challenges

India’s budget, 2026-27, slashes import duties on cell phone and laptop components, turning the country into a hub for component manufacturing, not just assembly. Electronics exports are projected to cross $120 billion by 2025.

The government has also launched a Rs 1.5 lakh crore semiconductor mission, attracting companies like Tata and Micron to establish advanced chip plants in India. In the chemical sector, stricter environmental regulations in China have shut down several plants, benefiting Indian companies such as Privi Specialty and Aarti Industries, which are now filling gaps in global supply chains.

Incentives for companies

The Production Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme promises cash rewards for output, covering over 14 sectors. This is India’s answer to Chinese subsidies. From land acquisition to electricity connections, the National Single Window System now enables businesses to clear all approvals through a single portal.

Infrastructure investment has also received a massive boost, with Rs 11.11 lakh crore allocated under PM GatiShakti. New ports and dedicated freight corridors are being built to ensure that exports from India reach the world faster and cheaper than ever before.

India’s moves points to a strategic shift in global manufacturing. By rolling out the red carpet for foreign companies and investing heavily in infrastructure, technology and policy reforms, the country is poised to become the go-to destination for global supply chains. The C+1 formula is not only a concept; it is a roadmap to turn India into the next industrial superpower and a $5 trillion economy.

 

 



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D-St blues! Sensex sheds 1.5K, biggest drop on a Budget day – The Times of India

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D-St blues! Sensex sheds 1.5K, biggest drop on a Budget day – The Times of India


Of 30 Index Stocks, 26 Close In Red

At a time when global markets are witnessing high volatility due to geopolitical uncertainties, the hike in securities transaction tax (STT) on derivatives trades hit investor sentiment on Dalal Street on the Budget day. This in turn led to a sharp sell-off that pulled the sensex down by nearly 1,500 points—its biggest points loss on a Budget day—to close at 80,773 points. The sell-off also left investors poorer by Rs 9.4 lakh crore, the biggest Budget day loss in BSE’s market capitalisation.The day’s trading was marked by high volatility. The sensex rallied over 400 points as FM started her speech, fell about 1,100 points after the STT hike proposal was announced, partially recovered by mid-session to trade 600 points down on the day and then sold-off to close below the 81K mark for the first time in four months.On the NSE, Nifty too treaded a similar path to close 495 points (2%) lower at 24,825 points. Fund managers and market players feel the day’s sell-off was overdone, compounded by the absence of most institutional players since it was a Sunday. “The market’s reaction (to the hike in STT rates) was a bit overdone, although the decision itself was unexpected,” said Taher Badshah, President & Chief Investment Officer, Invesco Mutual Fund. “I think markets should settle down in 2-3 days.” Badshah said the Budget was in line with govt’s set path of the past few years, showing a conservative approach to setting targets.“The revenue and expenditure targets for FY27 are achievable. And since the rate of inflation is lower now, the nominal GDP growth rate of 10% may turn out to be on the higher side as inflation normalises during the year,” the top fund manager said. In Sunday’s market, of the 30 sensex stocks, 26 closed in the red. Among index constituents, Reliance Industries, SBI and ICICI Bank contributed the most to the day’s loss. Buying in software services majors Infosys and TCS cushioned the slide. In all, 2,444 stocks closed in the red compared to 1,699 that closed in the green, BSE data showed.STT hike aimed at curbing F&O speculation The decision to raise securities transaction tax (STT) for trading in equity derivatives means trading futures & options (F&O) will be more expensive from April 1. STT on futures trading rises from 0.02% to 0.05% now, and on options premium and exercise of options to 0.15% from 0.1% and 0.125% respectively. This could more than double statutory costs of trading F&O contracts.While the move is to curb excessive speculation by retail traders who mostly suffer losses, investors sold stocks of those companies that derive a large portion of their turnover from this segment. Stock price of Angel One crashed nearly 9%, BSE crashed 8.1%, Billionbrains Garage Ventures that runs the Groww trading platform, lost 5.1% and Nuvama Wealth Management lost 7.3%. STT hike follows a Sebi survey that showed that 91% of the retail investors lost money in the F&O market with average loss per investor surpassing Rs 1 lakh per year. Institutional and some high net worth players took home most of the profits from the segment.18% GST on brokerage for FPIs removedThe Budget proposed to do away with 18% GST charged on the brokerage that foreign portfolio investors pay in India. Among the host of changes to the GST laws that the finance minister proposed, one was abolishing clause (b) of sub-section (8) of section 13 of the Integrated Goods and Services Tax Act, 2017. This is being “omitted so as to provide that the place of supply for ‘intermediary services’ will be determined as per the default provision under section 13(2) of the IGST Act,” the Budget proposal said.



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Starbucks bets on robots to brew a turnaround and win customers

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Starbucks bets on robots to brew a turnaround and win customers



Chief executive Brian Niccol explains why he thinks AI will help the coffee giant regain its buzz.



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