Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) has proposed a three-step strategy to safeguard India’s trade interests as discussions with the United States have stepped into the “advanced stage.” The agency has suggested measures like scaling back Russian oil imports, seeking trade parity and resuming talks on fair terms.

Here’s what GTRI’s 3 step plan says:

According to the think tank, the first move should be to stop importing oil from Russian companies currently under US sanctions, specifically Rosneft and Lukoil, which together account for 57% of Russia’s crude output. GTRI said that continuing to source crude from these firms exposes India to potential secondary sanctions that could extend and affect critical infrastructure. The note cautioned that more secondary sanctions might be far more damaging than tariffs, as they could disrupt SWIFT access, dollar payments and essential digital systems, potentially paralysing operations across refineries, ports and banks.

Once such imports are halted, the advisory body recommends India to “press Washington to withdraw the punitive 25% “Russian oil” tariff.” Scrapping the tariff would cut India’s duty burden in the US by half, from 50% to 25%, and improve export competitiveness.These additional duties were introduced on July 31 which the US called a “Russian oil” tariff, accusing India of fueling Moscow’s war machine. Since then, India’s overall duty burden in the US market has climbed to 50%, coinciding with a noticeable drop in exports, down 37% between May and September.

Only after tariffs return to normal levels, GTRI suggested to “restart trade negotiations…only on fair, balanced terms.”The organisation said India should push for tariff parity with its other major trade partners by targeting average duties of roughly 15% and securing duty-free access for priority sectors such as textiles, gems and jewellery, and pharmaceuticals.Commerce minister Piyush Goyal has signalled progress on a bilateral trade agreement with the United States, saying that the negotiations have reached an “advanced stage”. The development aligns with US President Donald Trump’s recent hint that a deal with India may be imminent.According to a TOI report, the proposed trade agreement could bring down US tariffs on Indian exports from 50% to 15%. In return, India is expected to scale back purchases of Russian oil and increase energy imports from the United States, along with fulfilling other commitments.

Even as Moscow’s crude dominates headlines, it’s not the only Russian oil flowing into India. Russia has now surpassed Ukraine to become India’s biggest supplier of sunflower oil, with shipments soaring twelvefold over the past four years, according to industry data cited by ET.

“Russia is the largest and most reliable source of sunflower oil in the world. We get advantage of supply chain reliability,” Sanjeev Asthana, CEO of Patanjali Foods and president of the Solvent Extractors’ Association of India (SEA) told ET.Back in 2021, Russian sunflower oil made up only around 10% of India’s total sunflower oil imports. By 2024, that share had jumped to 56%. India purchased 2.09 million tonnes of sunflower oil from Russia in the calendar year 2024, compared to just 175,000 tonnes in 2021.

Before the war, Ukraine was India’s main supplier of sunflower oil, shipping nearly 90% of its agricultural exports through seaports. However, once the conflict began, Ukraine redirected most of its sunflower oil to European countries via road and rail after its access to Black Sea ports was blocked. Industry officials said this rerouting made shipments to India costlier and less predictable.Russia, meanwhile, continued exporting comfortably through its seaports, giving Indian buyers a more stable and assured supply route. “They were offering us competitive rates, which is the requirement of the Indian market,” said Sandip Bajoria, president of the International Association of Sunflower Oil.Exchanges between industry delegations from both countries in recent months have further strengthened the trade link.

Sunflower oil is among India’s top three edible oils, yet less than 5% of what the country consumes is grown domestically. The country relies on imports to meet almost 60% of its cooking oil needs. Palm oil accounts for nearly half of that, followed by soyabean oil and sunflower oil. Farmers in the country scaled back sunflower cultivation in the 1990s, after cheaper imported oils began entering the market.Sunflower oil became popular once again in 2023 and 2024, when for the first time it became cheaper than palm oil, according to industry officials, cited by ET. The new pricing advantage helped Russian shipments narrow the market gap between sunflower oil and soyabean oil. “The share of sunflower oil was a distant third after soyabean oil. The Russian supplies have reduced this gap significantly,” Bajoria said.This turnaround may not hold through the year. Sunflower oil imports are expected to decline by about 13% because of a sharp price rise. “The overall imports of sunflower oil will decline this year as there is a premium of $150 per tonne on sunflower oil over the palm oil and soyabean oil,” Bajoria added. “However, the share of Russia will remain the same at around 55-60%.”In September, a delegation from SEA travelled to Russia to explore deeper trade cooperation.

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