Business
Beyond oil: How US-Iran war & Middle East crisis may hit India’s economy – sector-wise impact explained – The Times of India
Beyond oil, the Middle East crisis has other implications for the Indian economy, especially if the US-Israel-Iran war continues for a long duration leading to major supply disruptions. In recent days, a series of missile and drone attacks have struck multiple energy and logistics installations across the Gulf region. These incidents have heightened concerns that shipments of oil and gas moving through the Strait of Hormuz – a vital artery for global energy trade – could face disruption.Between March 1 and March 3, important facilities in Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and Oman came under attack. The situation has fueled concerns that the conflict could trigger a wider shock to global energy supplies.But beyond oil, it’s important to note that West Asia plays an important role in supplying India with essential commodities. In 2025, India’s imports from the region of approximately $98.7 billion included critical resources such as energy, fertilisers and industrial inputs.
1. Oil: Immediate risk
Petroleum is the most immediate area of exposure. In 2025, India sourced roughly $70 billion crude oil and petroleum products from West Asia.“Crude oil feeds India’s refineries, which produce petrol, diesel, aviation fuel and petrochemical feedstocks used across the economy. India has about 30 days of stocks, any prolonged disruption in shipments could quickly push up fuel prices, raising transport and logistics costs and feeding into inflation. Farmers would also feel the pressure through higher diesel prices for irrigation pumps and tractors,” says Ajay Srivastava, founder of Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI).Also Read | Russian crude to rescue! Ships carrying Russia’s oil head to India amid Middle East supply shock: Report
2. LNG Supplies
Supplies of natural gas are also exposed to potential disruptions. In 2025, India sourced liquefied natural gas or LNG worth $9.2 billion from West Asia, which is around 68.4% of its total LNG imports. LNG is also a key input for fertilizer manufacturing units, gas-fired power plants and city gas distribution systems that provide compressed natural gas (CNG) for vehicles and piped gas for household cooking.Signs of this vulnerability have already emerged. Qatar’s Petronet LNG halted LNG deliveries to GAIL starting March 4, 2026 due to restrictions affecting vessel movement.
3. Risks to LPG
Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) imports from West Asia were $13.9 billion in 2025, making up 46.9 % of India’s total LPG purchases. LPG continues to serve as the main cooking fuel for millions of households. With reserves covering only about two weeks of consumption, any interruption in supply could quickly impact the availability of cooking fuel.
4. Exposure in Fertiliser Supplies
India’s agricultural sector could also feel the impact through fertiliser imports, says GTRI in its report. In 2025, fertiliser purchases from West Asia stood at $3.7 billion. Any disruption in supplies during the crop cycle could lead to reduced fertilizer availability, increase the government’s subsidy burden and eventually push up food prices.Also Read | India’s energy security exposure to Middle East: How much oil, LPG, LNG reserves do we have?
5. Diamond Trade and Exports
India’s diamond export sector is also closely tied to supplies from the Gulf. Diamonds of around $6.8 billion were imported from the Middle East in 2025, which is 40.6% of its total imports of these stones. Rough diamonds are in turn processed in India’s cutting and polishing centres, especially in Gujarat’s Surat, before being exported to international markets as polished gems. Any interruption in the flow of raw diamonds could slow manufacturing activity and have an impact on employment within the jewellery industry.
6. Industrial Raw Material Supplies
A number of industrial inputs sourced from the Gulf are also crucial for India’s manufacturing sector. India bought polyethylene polymers of around $1.2 billion from West Asia in 2025. Polyethylene is widely used in products such as packaging materials, plastic piping, storage containers, consumer goods and agricultural films used in irrigation systems.
7. Construction-Related Materials
India’s construction industry also relies heavily on mineral imports from the region. In 2025, the country imported limestone worth $483 million from West Asia. Limestone is a key ingredient in cement production, and hence any shortage could raise the cost of cement, thereby possibly slowing infrastructure development.
8. Metals Supply Chains
Supply links with West Asia also extend to the metals sector. India imported direct reduced iron of around $190 million from the Middle East region in 2025. Additionally, the country sourced copper wire worth $869 million from West Asia. Copper wire is widely used in power transmission networks, electrical machinery and renewable energy infrastructure.As GTRI notes: Together, these figures highlight how closely India’s economy is tied to West Asian supply chains. “If disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz continue beyond a week, the effects could quickly spread from energy markets to fertiliser supplies, manufacturing inputs, construction materials and export industries such as diamonds. What begins as a regional conflict could rapidly evolve into a broader supply shock for the Indian economy,” the GTRI report concludes.
Business
Oil prices jump after Trump says Iranian ship seized
Energy markets have seen wild swings since the US and Israel attacked Iran on 28 February.
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Gold prices in Pakistan Today – April 20, 2026 | The Express Tribune
Gold and silver prices declined in both international and domestic markets, reflecting a broader downward trend in precious metals.
In the international bullion market, the price of gold fell by $49 per ounce, settling at $4,788.
According to the All-Pakistan Gems and Jewellers Sarafa Association (APGJSA), in the local market, gold prices also recorded a significant drop. The price per tola decreased by Rs4,900 to reach Rs501,162. Similarly, the price of 10 grams of gold declined by Rs4,201, settling at Rs429,665.
Silver prices also followed a downward trajectory. The price per tola of silver fell by Rs145 to Rs8,417 while the price of 10 grams of silver dropped by Rs124, reaching Rs7,216.
Read More: Gold, silver prices rise again in local and international markets
Gold and silver prices recorded an increase on Saturday in both international and local markets after declining on Friday, following a three-day upward trend in global and domestic markets.
According to the All Pakistan Sarafa Gems and Jewellers Association (APSGJA), in the international bullion market, the price of gold rose by $45 per ounce to reach $4,837. In the local market, the price of gold per tola increased by Rs4,500 to Rs506,062, while the rate for 10 grams rose by Rs3,858 to Rs433,866.
Silver prices also moved higher, with the per tola rate increasing by Rs118 to Rs8,562. Similarly, the price of silver per 10 grams rose by Rs101 to Rs7,340.
Business
Stocks to buy: What’s the outlook for Nifty for April 20-April 24 week? Check list of top stock recommendations – The Times of India
Stock market recommendations: APL Apollo Tubes, and HDFC Asset Management Company are Sudeep Shah, Head – Technical Research and Derivatives, SBI Securities’ top stock picks for this week. Below are his stock picks and also views on Nifty.Nifty ViewThe benchmark index Nifty continues to inch higher; however, this phase of the rally is notably different, as the spotlight has shifted away from the headline index. While Nifty has extended its pullback rally for the second consecutive week and closed in the green, the real strength is emerging beneath the surface. The broader markets have taken the lead, with Nifty Midcap 100 and Nifty Smallcap 100 delivering a robust rally and clearly outperforming the frontline index. Both indices have decisively moved above their key moving averages, signalling trend strength, whereas Nifty is still trading below its 100day and 200day EMA. Most importantly, Nifty Midcap 100 is now just a short distance away from its alltime high, suggesting that the next leg of opportunity may be unfolding beyond the conventional largecap space.Focusing back on Nifty, the index has been sustaining above its 50day EMA for the last three trading sessions, while the 20day and 50day EMA have started to edge higher, reflecting improvement in the shortterm trend. Meanwhile, the downward momentum in the 100day and 200day EMA has slowed considerably, indicating a stabilisation in the mediumterm structure. Momentum indicators further support the constructive bias, with the daily RSI trading above the 57 mark and moving higher, and the daily MACD histogram signalling strong bullish momentum.Collectively, these technical factors suggest that the pullback rally is likely to continue in the short term. On the upside, the 24650–24700 zone is expected to act as a crucial hurdle for the index. A sustainable breakout above 24700 could lead to an extension of the pullback rally towards 25000, followed by 25200 in the near term. On the downside, the 24050–24000 zone will serve as immediate support, and as long as the index remains above the 24000 mark, the ongoing pullback rally is likely to stay intact.Bank Nifty ViewThe banking benchmark Bank Nifty also ended the week on a positive note, indicating the continuation of its ongoing pullback rally. However, over the last three trading sessions, the index has struggled to decisively cross its 200day EMA, suggesting a phase of consolidation near a key long-term resistance zone. This price behaviour reflects hesitation at higher levels and points towards a pause in momentum after the recent recovery.This consolidation largely indicates a degree of caution among market participants, as investors appear to be awaiting clarity on the Q4 earnings outcome of major banking heavyweights, namely ICICI Bank and HDFC Bank. With both results scheduled over the weekend, the index is likely to witness a directional move post the earnings announcements, depending on earnings performance and management commentary.From a technical perspective, the index continues to maintain a constructive short-term setup, as it is trading above its 20day and 50day EMA, reflecting underlying strength. Momentum indicators remain supportive, with the daily RSI placed above the 55 level and trending higher, suggesting improving buying momentum and positive shortterm bias.Looking ahead, the 57000–57100 zone is expected to act as a crucial resistance area, as it coincides with both the prior swing high and the 100day EMA, making it an important supply zone. A sustainable move above 57100 could lead to a further extension of the pullback rally towards 57800, followed by 58500 in the short term. On the downside, the 55800–55700 zone is placed as an important support band, and any dip towards this region is likely to attract buying interest as long as the structure remains intact.Stock recommendations:APL Apollo TubesAPL Apollo Tubes has shown strong bullish intent after a 14.5% pullback from its early April lows near the 200-day EMA, indicating solid support at lower levels. The recent consolidation between 2072–1961 acted as a base, with the stock now delivering a decisive breakout on strong footing. A positive DI crossover on ADX signals clear buyer dominance, while the MACD nearing a move above the zero line with rising histogram bars points to strengthening momentum.The overall setup suggests the stock is well-positioned to extend its uptrend in the near term. Hence, we recommend to accumulate the stock in the zone of 2110-2090 with a stoploss of 2020. On the upside, it is likely to test the level of 2255 in the short term.HDFC Asset Management CompanyHDFC Asset Management Company has exhibited strong bullish momentum, closing Friday’s session with an impressive 4.89% gain. The stock has surged nearly 26% from its March lows, indicating robust buying interest. Momentum indicators remain firmly supportive, with RSI sustaining above 60, reflecting strength. Additionally, a positive DI crossover on ADX highlights clear buyer dominance, while rising MACD histogram bars with the MACD line above the zero mark further reinforce the ongoing uptrend. The overall structure suggests the stock is well-positioned to extend its upward trajectory. Hence, we recommend to accumulate the stock in the zone of 2800-2770 with a stoploss of 2690. On the upside, it is likely to test the level of 2990 in the short term.(Disclaimer: Recommendations and views on the stock market, other asset classes or personal finance management tips given by experts are their own. These opinions do not represent the views of The Times of India)
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