Business news live – Banks bet on interest rate cut and UK bills rise 8% in a year

It’s sometimes hard to keep pace with everything around interest rates, how much it has all changed and the wider impact it has.

This chart helps display the rate of change, at least: post-Covid we had basically a zero rate for a long period, but the cost of living crisis across 2022 and 2023 saw interest rates shoot higher in quick succession as the BoE tried to stem inflation, which hit 11%.

Since last year the base rate began to decline, we’ve had five cuts in total.

Three this year came in February, May and August.

Thomas Pugh, chief economist at tax firm RSM UK, is one of those who thinks the MPC will remain prudent for now.

“Financial markets have gone from pricing in less than a 25% chance of another rate cut by the end of the year to a two-thirds chance now, due to a lower inflation peak and rumours of a less-inflationary budget,” he explained.

“We doubt this will be enough to tempt the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) into a rate cut next week. We expect a 3-6 vote for a hold. But it throws the door wide open to a rate cut in December, especially if the budget is deflationary.”

Not everyone is immediately convinced, of course.

Plenty still think it’s more likely that the BoE will persist with their cautious approach so far and at least wait for one more monthly set of data to be taken in before opting to cut.

Matt Britzman, senior equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, points to the money market still being split on December at the moment.

“London stocks have a touch higher this morning as investors brace for a pivotal week at the Bank of England. Rates are widely expected to stay at 4% on Thursday, but the real debate is whether policymakers deliver a cut in December, with odds hovering near 50-50. With stubborn inflation and slowing growth, expectations for the year ahead are in the balance.

Last week Goldman Sachs said they think a rate cut is in the offing, and now Barclays have joined them.

Noting that “shop price data point to further disinflation in October”, Barclays analysts have suggested the Bank of England’s MPC members will provide a split vote – they predict 5-4 – but the ultimate outcome will be a cut.

“We acknowledge the decision remains finely balanced, but expect the recent downside inflation and labour market news to tip the vote to a cut,” read the analysis note, from Jack Meaning and Silvia Ardagna.

Food inflation is a key tipping point in the vote, they predict, and it appears to be on the way down (disinflation).

Rewind the tape a few weeks and banks, economists and analysts were unified in their belief: no interest rate cut pre-Budget, quite possibly none for the rest of 2025.

However, inflation data for September changed all that.

We didn’t hit 4% as expected, and now the worst is expected to have passed.

On the back of that, jobs data came in weaker again too as companies continued to reign in the hiring and vacancies were down to a multi-year low.

Now, more than one bank has changed its tune.

Morning all and welcome to another week of your personal finance, UK business and stock markets news on The Independent.

We’ll start today with interest rates talk ahead of the MPC meeting, which comes on Thursday.