Business
Business news live – Banks bet on interest rate cut and UK bills rise 8% in a year
Interest rates: five steady cuts after sharp correction up
It’s sometimes hard to keep pace with everything around interest rates, how much it has all changed and the wider impact it has.
This chart helps display the rate of change, at least: post-Covid we had basically a zero rate for a long period, but the cost of living crisis across 2022 and 2023 saw interest rates shoot higher in quick succession as the BoE tried to stem inflation, which hit 11%.
Since last year the base rate began to decline, we’ve had five cuts in total.
Three this year came in February, May and August.
Karl Matchett3 November 2025 09:20
Economics expert explains why BoE may wait for Budget
Thomas Pugh, chief economist at tax firm RSM UK, is one of those who thinks the MPC will remain prudent for now.
“Financial markets have gone from pricing in less than a 25% chance of another rate cut by the end of the year to a two-thirds chance now, due to a lower inflation peak and rumours of a less-inflationary budget,” he explained.
“We doubt this will be enough to tempt the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) into a rate cut next week. We expect a 3-6 vote for a hold. But it throws the door wide open to a rate cut in December, especially if the budget is deflationary.”
Karl Matchett3 November 2025 09:00
‘Odds 50-50’ on a December rate cut
Not everyone is immediately convinced, of course.
Plenty still think it’s more likely that the BoE will persist with their cautious approach so far and at least wait for one more monthly set of data to be taken in before opting to cut.
Matt Britzman, senior equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, points to the money market still being split on December at the moment.
“London stocks have a touch higher this morning as investors brace for a pivotal week at the Bank of England. Rates are widely expected to stay at 4% on Thursday, but the real debate is whether policymakers deliver a cut in December, with odds hovering near 50-50. With stubborn inflation and slowing growth, expectations for the year ahead are in the balance.
Karl Matchett3 November 2025 08:40
Barclays join calls for interest rates cut
Last week Goldman Sachs said they think a rate cut is in the offing, and now Barclays have joined them.
Noting that “shop price data point to further disinflation in October”, Barclays analysts have suggested the Bank of England’s MPC members will provide a split vote – they predict 5-4 – but the ultimate outcome will be a cut.
“We acknowledge the decision remains finely balanced, but expect the recent downside inflation and labour market news to tip the vote to a cut,” read the analysis note, from Jack Meaning and Silvia Ardagna.
Food inflation is a key tipping point in the vote, they predict, and it appears to be on the way down (disinflation).
Karl Matchett3 November 2025 08:20
Inflation data behind change of heart on interest rate cuts
Rewind the tape a few weeks and banks, economists and analysts were unified in their belief: no interest rate cut pre-Budget, quite possibly none for the rest of 2025.
However, inflation data for September changed all that.
We didn’t hit 4% as expected, and now the worst is expected to have passed.
On the back of that, jobs data came in weaker again too as companies continued to reign in the hiring and vacancies were down to a multi-year low.
Now, more than one bank has changed its tune.
Karl Matchett3 November 2025 08:14
Business
Young people to be hit hardest by UK’s ageing society, report suggests
Young people will be hit hardest by successive governments’ failure to focus on financial and societal challenges caused by an ageing population, a House of Lords report has suggested.
They will need to plan and prepare to work longer and save more from a much earlier age, the economic affairs committee said.
The report also found that the crisis in adult social care “remains a scandal” which needs to be addressed urgently.
Committee chair Lord Wood of Anfield told the BBC it was a “struggle to find where in government” there was a focus on ageing and the “transformational effects” it was going to have on people.
“Ageing is something that we’re just watching happening”, he told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme, adding: “We know that adaptation is the way forward”.
Policies governments have used to address the impact of declining fertility and rising life expectancy in the UK – raising the state pension age or increasing immigration for example – were not adequate solutions on their own, the report said.
Getting more people in their 50s and 60s to stay in or return to work “is key”, the committee said, and the government must prioritise incentives to do so.
It found that while age discrimination may reduce the number of over 50s working, it heard evidence that its most damaging form may be self-directed, with older workers mistaken about the extent they faced and then limiting their own decisions.
It also said an ageing population will need more care workers, leaving fewer workers for other parts of the economy.
There is “widespread ignorance” of how much it costs to retire, it said, and the government should consider an education campaign – as well as finding out if the UK’s financial services sector is equipped to provide for the population as it ages.
Lord Wood said that the government and financial services industry needs to devise “more innovative ways of getting younger people to think about lives frankly they can’t conceive of at the moment – when they’re in their eighties and early nineties.”
“There’s a long time for them to be financially planning for at a time when we know young people are doing less financial planning,” he added.
“Raising the state pension age, which saves the government money, but increases pensioner poverty as many people have already stopped working by their sixties, is a red herring.
“To successfully confront this challenge, the approach to financial management of today’s and tomorrow’s young people will need to change.”
Business
India-Oman CEPA rollout: Trade pact may take effect in three month; Piyush Goyal flags faster execution – The Times of India
India and Oman are aiming to operationalise their recently signed Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) within the next three months, Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal said on Friday, signalling a faster rollout than several past trade pacts, PTI reported.The India–Oman free trade agreement was signed on December 18. Under the CEPA, Oman has offered zero-duty access on more than 98 per cent of its tariff lines, covering 99.38 per cent of India’s exports to the Gulf country. At present, these products attract import duties ranging from 5 per cent to as high as 100 per cent.
“All major labour-intensive sectors will get nil duty,” Goyal said, listing gems and jewellery, textiles, leather, footwear, sports goods, plastics, furniture, agricultural products, engineering goods, pharmaceuticals, medical devices and automobiles as key beneficiaries.On the Indian side, New Delhi has offered tariff concessions on 77.79 per cent of its total tariff lines, or 12,556 product categories, which together account for 94.81 per cent of India’s imports from Oman by value.“The Oman minister and I have discussed that this agreement, we will try to operationalise within three months,” Goyal told reporters, contrasting the timeline with Oman’s earlier trade deal with the US, which was finalised in 2006 but implemented only in 2009.Highlighting investment opportunities, Goyal said sectors such as steel, energy, education and healthcare held strong potential for Indian companies in Oman, particularly resource-linked industries. He pointed to a large green steel project in the pipeline and growing interest in converting energy into green hydrogen or green ammonia for exports.“There is a lot of interest because they have large land banks,” he said, adding that opportunities also exist in marble processing, battery manufacturing, education and healthcare.Goyal said Omani businesses were keen to partner with Indian firms, citing interest from an Omani dairy company in forming a joint venture with Amul. He added that Oman’s sovereign wealth fund and companies had been invited to explore investments in India.
Business
Trump’s ‘Gold Card’ defines wealth as an ‘extraordinary ability.’ Immigration experts say it raises questions
President Donald Trump’s new “Gold Card” visa program uses a novel definition of wealth as a job skill to allow the overseas wealthy to bypass immigration rules and secure citizenship, according to immigration attorneys.
Trump last week announced the start of applications for the “Trump Gold Card,” a new investment visa for foreign nationals. In exchange for $1 million and a $15,000 processing fee, “Gold Card” applicants will get full-time residency in the U.S. in “record time,” according to the program’s website. The website also offers a “Corporate Gold Card,” allowing companies to pay $2 million to secure a “Gold Card” for an employee, and a “Platinum Card,” which offers special tax benefits and may eventually be offered for $5 million.
Only Congress can set immigration policy, meaning the president doesn’t have the power to create or destroy a visa program. So to create the “Gold Card,” Trump is effectively adding a new fee model to two existing programs – known as EB-1 and EB-2 – experts explained to CNBC.
The EB-1 and EB-2 programs are both employment-based programs aimed at attracting award-winning or celebrated professionals. The EB-1 program, nicknamed the “Einstein Visa,” is aimed at those with “extraordinary abilities” – such as scientists, artists, entrepreneurs, athletes and professors who have achieved “sustained international or national acclaim.”
The EB-2 is for researchers, scientists and others whose skills are useful to help solve national problems, like a leading cancer researcher developing new treatments, or a top energy scientist who can help expand the power grid.
White House officials say that the $1 million payment is proof that “Gold Card” holders are successful business people who meet the requirements for exceptional abilities. Anyone with $1 million to spend on a visa is likely to be a productive addition to the American economy and society, they say. Entrepreneurs who started companies overseas can come to the U.S. to expand or start new ventures, creating more jobs. Spending by the “Gold Card” wealthy is also expected to help real estate, the service economy and other industries.
“Why shouldn’t we expedite the people who are willing to step up, to give the United States $1 million,” Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick told CNBC last week. “Let’s bring in the top of the top, the best. Why should we take people who are below average?”
Immigration attorneys, however, say that replacing highly skilled or celebrated talents with foreign nationals whose sole qualification is writing a $1 million check distorts the intent of the EB-1 and EB-2 programs. Not everyone with $1 million payment is a high-achieving businessperson or entrepreneur, they say. Some may have borrowed the money from friends, family or a lender. Others may have inherited their fortunes but have scant job skills.
“Having $1 million has nothing to do with your value as a person of extraordinary ability,” said Emily Neumann, an immigration attorney with Reddy Neumann Brown PC. “It doesn’t mean you are able to provide value to the United States of America. These categories were supposed to be reserved for people who can foster innovation and contribute to the economy and create jobs. There is no requirement that “Gold Card” holders have a track record of any of those things, just because they happen to have $1 million.”
While “Gold Card” applicants can’t legally skip the current waiting line for EB-1 and EB-2 holders, some attorneys fear the White House will give “Gold Card” applicants priority. Neumann said she has an Indian client who’s a leading expert in artificial intelligence and machine learning and is working on AI applications for doctors to better diagnose patients. He’s approved for the EB-1 but is still waiting on a green card, which could take years.
“They’re using up a limited number of green cards meant for people who have done wonderful things,” she said. “It’s a very different standard.”
Using the EB-1 and EB-2 programs for the “Gold Card” program has created other potential hurdles. While Trump has said he would sell “millions” of “Gold Cards,” and Lutnick said sales could raise $1 trillion in revenue, the two programs are capped at around 28,000 a year. Individual countries are capped at 7% of the total, which is why the the waiting list for E-1 and E-2 applications from India and China already extends for several years.
Immigration attorneys say India and China would be largest sources of demand for “Gold Cards.” Yet because of the waiting lists, few are likely to apply.
“If ‘Gold Card’ holders will be allowed to jump the queue, there will likely be lawsuits from those currently on the wait list,” said Reaz Jafri, an immigration attorney with the international law firm Withers. “And if not, who will want to pay the $1 million and then wait for three years?”
The unanswered questions and legal risks surrounding the “Gold Card” have caused potential buyers to hold off on applying, attorneys say. Dominic Volek, group head of private clients at Henley & Partners, said a number of his clients in Taiwan, Vietnam and Singapore are interested in the “Gold Card” but are waiting for proof that the program works.
Some are also worried about paying the $1 million and then having their visas overturned by a court or a future Democratic administration.
“They want to see the dust settle and see if there are any major legal challenges,” Volek said.
Another concern is the structure of the fee. While some national investment visas are more expensive – such as Singapore’s at nearly $8 million or New Zealand’s at nearly $3 million – they’re structured as investments rather than non-refundable payments. Without an explicit guarantee of a green card, the overseas wealthy are reluctant to pay the $1 million.
“It’s not clear if you make the payment once it’s approved or you provide the payment as evidence, or if it’s kept in escrow during the process,” Jafri said. “They haven’t addressed so many basic questions.”
Proof of funds is proving to be another hurdle for the overseas wealthy. In order to screen for money laundering or criminal activity, the U.S. government typically requires proof that the $1 million fee didn’t come from illegal or illicit sources. Many potential applicants from Asia, Africa and the Middle East are already balking at the demands, since financial documentation is not as thorough.
“The biggest sticking point for a lot of clients is being able to document the source of money,” Jafri said. “In certain parts of the world it’s not so easy to document.”
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