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C/A slips into $594m deficit in Q1 of FY26 | The Express Tribune

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C/A slips into 4m deficit in Q1 of FY26 | The Express Tribune



KARACHI:

Pakistan’s current account recorded a deficit of $594 million for the first quarter of FY26 (July-September 2025), reversing a small surplus of $110 million in August, as rising imports outpaced gains in exports and remittances, according to provisional data released by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) on Monday.

The deficit reflects a growing import bill amid moderate export growth. Exports of goods rose modestly to $7.9 billion during the quarter, up from $7.4 billion a year earlier – a growth of about 6.5%. However, imports surged faster to $15.4 billion, up 8.3% year-on-year, widening the goods trade deficit to $7.53 billion for the quarter.

Service exports grew by 15% to $2.2 billion, but this was offset by higher service imports of $3.1 billion, leaving a $931 million deficit in the services balance. Among the service sector, Pakistan recorded its highest-ever monthly IT exports.

“IT exports have made a new high of $366 million (up 25% YoY), and contribution to total goods and services exports has also reached a high of 10.7% (+1.8 ppts YoY) in September 2025,” said Maaz Azam, Research Head at Optimus Capital.

Pakistan recorded its highest-ever monthly IT exports of $366 million in September 2025, up 25% year-on-year and 9% month-on-month. These exports were higher than the last 12-month average of $326 million. This took first-quarter FY26 IT exports to $1.06 billion, marking a 21% year-on-year increase. Average daily export proceeds stood at $16.64 million in September 2025 versus $14.65 million in August 2025.

Topline Securities’ analyst Sania Irfan noted that year-on-year growth in IT exports was driven by four factors: (1) expansion of IT companies’ global client base, especially in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region; (2) the SBP’s decision to raise the permissible retention limit from 35% to 50% in exporters’ specialised foreign currency accounts; (3) permission for equity investment abroad through these accounts; and (4) exchange rate stability encouraging higher repatriation of profits.

According to a survey by the Pakistan Software Houses Association (P@SHA), 62% of IT firms now maintain specialised foreign currency accounts. “In our view, the SBP’s Equity Investment Abroad (EIA) policy – allowing exporters to acquire foreign interests using up to 50% of proceeds – will further strengthen confidence and remittances in the sector,” she said.

Net IT exports (exports minus imports) stood at $330 million, up 29% year-on-year and 8% month-on-month, exceeding the 12-month average of $286 million. While the government has set an FY26 target of $5 billion, Topline expects IT exports to grow by 18-20% this fiscal year. Under the “Uraan Pakistan” economic plan, the FY2029 export target of $10 billion implies a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 27%. Within the sector, Systems Limited (SYS) remains a preferred pick, trading at 2025E and 2026F price-to-earnings (P/E) multiples of 21.6x and 16.1x, respectively.

Meanwhile, workers’ remittances showed encouraging momentum, rising to $9.54 billion in July-September FY26, compared to $8.8 billion in the same period last year – a growth of 8.4% as inflows from Gulf countries and the US strengthened.

Pakistan recorded a net foreign direct investment (FDI) inflow of $186 million in September 2025, slightly higher than $175 million in August. However, quarterly inflows remained subdued, according to Arif Habib Limited (AHL). During the first quarter of FY26, net FDI inflows declined by 34% year-on-year to $569 million, compared to $865 million in the same period of FY25.

Overall, Pakistan’s net borrowing position worsened as the balance from current and capital accounts slipped to a deficit of $562 million for the month.

The SBP’s reserves excluding banks rose to $14.28 billion by end-September, up sharply from $10.84 billion at the close of FY25, while total gross reserves (including banks) reached $15.49 billion.

Pakistan’s external account faces renewed pressure as the current account deficit widened, driven by rising imports, weak export competitiveness, and higher income outflows. Despite robust remittances, the goods trade gap remains elevated at over $7.5 billion in 1QFY26, reflecting persistent import dependence.

Foreign direct investment remains modest, while oil prices and demand recovery continue to strain the import bill. Sustaining reserves near $14.3 billion will hinge on International Monetary Fund inflows and policy discipline, as structural issues, including low productivity, narrow export base, and sluggish private investment, pose significant medium-term challenges.



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Muhurat Trading 2025 Live Updates: Special One-Hour Market Session Today; RIL, HDFC Bank, SBI In Focus

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Muhurat Trading 2025 Live Updates: Special One-Hour Market Session Today; RIL, HDFC Bank, SBI In Focus


Diwali Muhurat Trading 2025 Time Live Updates: The special one-hour Muhurat trading session on both the BSE and the NSE will take place between 1:45 pm and 2:45 pm on October 21, with a pre-opening session from 1:30 pm to 1:45 pm, as per exchange notifications. The new session also ushers in Vikram Samvat 2082, the Hindu New Year that begins on Diwali. Traditionally, trading during the ‘Muhurat’ session, the auspicious hour, is believed to bring prosperity and financial growth to investors.

According to official schedules, all trades executed during the Muhurat session will carry regular settlement obligations, meaning delivery and payment duties for buyers and sellers will be settled as on any normal trading day.

V K Vijayakumar, chief investment strategist at Geojit Investments Ltd, said, “The important takeaway from Samvat 2081 is India’s huge underperformance. Even though there are many reasons, including Trump tariffs, for this underperformance, the single major factor is the sharp decline in India’s earnings growth to 5 per cent in FY25 from average 24 per cent during the three years before that. Since ‘in the long run, the market is a slave of earnings’ the major trend, going forward, will depend on how earnings growth pans out. The fiscal and monetary reforms implemented this year has started showing results.”

Particularly, the sales of automobiles and white goods have shot up early this festive season and, if this trend sustains, earnings growth will be good at around 8 per cent to 10 per cent in FY 26, accelerating to around 15 per cent in FY27. If this expectation materialises, the market will rally in Samvat 2082 compensating for the underperformance of Samvat 2081. In the short run the market may get a leg up from a possible India- US trade deal, but the long-term trend will be dictated by earnings growth, he added.

Muhurat trading is a long-standing Diwali tradition first introduced by the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) in 1957, and later adopted by the National Stock Exchange (NSE) in 1992.

Historically, brokers performed Chopda Pujan, a ritualistic worship of account books, during this auspicious hour to mark the beginning of the new financial year with prosperity and good fortune.

Technical View

Rupak De, senior technical analyst at LKP Securities, said, “The market started with a gap-up (in the previous session on Monday) and remained volatile throughout the day. On the higher end, Nifty touched a high of 25,926 before closing around 25,850. Though there was some profit-taking at higher levels, the overall sentiment is likely to remain strong, with the potential to reach 26,000-26,200 in the short term. The technical setup remains positive as long as the index stays above 25,700, below which it may move back into consolidation.”



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Gold, Silver Prices Cool After Record Highs; Jewellery Sales Jump 35–40% During Dhanteras

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Gold, Silver Prices Cool After Record Highs; Jewellery Sales Jump 35–40% During Dhanteras


Mumbai: Gold and silver prices fell on Tuesday as investors booked profits after both metals hit record highs in the previous session, even as festive jewellery sales during Dhanteras jumped 35–40 per cent across India.  

Silver Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), which had delivered stellar one-year returns of around 65–70 per cent, also saw a sharp correction as global prices cooled following improved physical supply and easing safe-haven demand.

Silver had turned hot earlier this month when global spot prices surged past $40 an ounce amid concerns of a physical shortage. The rally extended further, crossing $50 in mid-October.

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However, by the end of last week, prices began to retreat as easing trade tensions reduced safe-haven demand. On October 17, silver prices in the US fell by over 6 per cent, and the correction soon spilled over into Indian markets.

According to the India Bullion and Jewellers Association (IBJA), silver prices in India fell 7 per cent on October 20, slipping from Rs 1,71,275 per kg to Rs 1,60,100 per kg. The decline directly impacted silver ETFs, which mirror domestic silver prices.

Data from Ace MF shows that silver ETFs logged steep single-day losses, with most funds dropping up to 7 per cent on October 20.

Analysts noted that the ETFs are now trading at or below fair value — a sign that investor demand has started to cool after months of heavy inflows.

Meanwhile, in the international market, gold prices also softened after touching record highs on Monday. Spot gold was down 0.3 per cent at $4,340.29 per ounce as of 0248 GMT, after hitting an all-time high of $4,381.21 in the previous session.

US gold futures for December delivery eased 0.1 per cent to $4,356.40 per ounce, as investors booked profits amid expectations of further interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve.

The Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) will also observe special Muhurat trading today, October 21, with a pre-open session from 1:30 p.m. to 1:44 p.m., followed by the Muhurat trading window from 1:45 p.m. to 2:45 p.m.

Despite the short-term correction, festive demand for gold and silver remains strong. The All India Gem & Jewellery Promotion Council, said that around 50 to 60 tonnes of jewellery were sold nationwide over the two days of Dhanteras, generating nearly Rs 85 crore in sales.

It added that while the sales volume was similar to last year, the overall value grew by 35–40 per cent due to higher prices and rising consumer interest.

“Silver, in particular, has seen a remarkable surge, with sales nearly doubling this season. With Dhanteras coinciding with the weekend and followed by Diwali and Bhau Beej, the five-day festive period is expected to deliver exceptional results,” it mentioned.

“We anticipate total jewellery sales reaching 100 to 120 tonnes, valued between Rs 1 lakh crore and Rs 1.35 lakh crore,” they said.



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Muhurat trading top stocks to buy today: Stock market recommendations for October 21, 2025 – check list – The Times of India

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Muhurat trading top stocks to buy today: Stock market recommendations for October 21, 2025 – check list – The Times of India


Top stocks to buy (AI image)

Stock market recommendations on Muhurat trading day 2025: According to Somil Mehta, Head – Alternate Research, Capital Market Strategy, Mirae Asset Sharekhan, the top stocks to buy today on October 21, 2025 Muhurat trading are Manappuram Finance, and GMR Airport:Manappuram Finance – Buy in the range between Rs 287 & Rs 288; Stop Loss: Rs 274; Target: Rs 318Manappuram Finance has been forming a symmetrical Triangle pattern above 20&40 daily moving average and the stock is expected to resume the uptrend. Momentum indicators have also given a positive crossover below the zero line. The stock has been consolidating in a broad range since last month and has closed above 20 daily moving average i.e. 286, resuming the uptrend. Key resistance is 292 & 296 and support is at 283 and 275.GMR Airport – Buy in the range between Rs 91 & Rs 92; Stop Loss: Rs 88; Target: Rs 98GMR Airport has been consolidating in a range above 20 and 40 daily moving average and the stock is expected to resume the uptrend. Momentum indicators have also given a positive crossover above the zero line. The stock has been consolidating in a broad range since last month and has closed above 20 daily moving average i.e. 90, resuming the uptrend. Key resistance is at 94 and support is at 90 and 89.(Disclaimer: Recommendations and views on the stock market and other asset classes given by experts are their own. These opinions do not represent the views of The Times of India)





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