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More than a third of the condo apartments sold in Manhattan over roughly the past year sold at a loss, although the top end of the market fared better, according to a new report.
Despite the steady stream of headlines about eye-popping sales and soaring prices in Manhattan real estate, the median price per square foot for Manhattan condos is essentially flat from a decade ago, according to a report from Brown Harris Stevens. One in three condo resales between July 2024 and June 2025 were sold at a loss, according to the report. When including inflation, transaction costs and renovations, the share of losses by condo sellers is likely even higher, according to real estate analysts.
While the data didn’t include co-ops, analysts say co-op prices have generally fared the same or slightly worse than condos.
“For the last decade, Manhattan has essentially been moving sideways,” said Jonathan Miller, CEO of Miller Samuel, the appraisal and real estate research firm.
The long-term price weakness in Manhattan stands in stark contrast to much of the country, where home prices are up substantially since the pandemic, creating a widespread affordability crisis. Only 2% of home sellers nationally who purchased homes before the pandemic are at risk of selling at a loss, according to Redfin.
Manhattan is still among the most expensive markets in the country, especially on a per-square-foot basis. The median price for Manhattan sales in the third quarter was $1.2 million, while the average is just under $2 million, according to Miller Samuel and Douglas Elliman. Yet over the longer term, an analysis of resales finds that the timing of purchases in Manhattan typically matters more than location.
Condo owners who bought before 2010 have fared the best. The median gains for those in that cohort who sold over roughly the past year were between 29% and 45%, according to the Brown Harris report. Prices started to rise after the financial crisis, peaking in 2016. That means for those who bought between 2011 and 2015, the sale gains in the past year were modest, around 11%.
The biggest losers were those who bought after 2016. Half of the buyers who bought between 2016 and 2020 sold at a loss over the surveyed period. Among those who bought between 2021 and 2024, the gains were slim – although some buyers who got deals during the depths of the Covid downturn in late 2020 and early 2021 may fare better.
Adding in other costs of buying, selling and ownership would further add to the losses. Transaction costs in Manhattan can range from 6% to 10%, according to brokers. Renovations and improvements also aren’t counted in the losses, nor are maintenance fees or taxes. Adjusting for inflation would also increase the losses and lower returns.
Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, co-director of the Paul Milstein Center for Real Estate at the Graduate School of Business at Columbia University, said inflation has increased 36% over the past decade.
“So if I had invested in a Manhattan condo in September 2015 (close to the peak) and sold it in August 2025 for the same nominal price, a 0% nominal return, I actually lost 36% in real terms,” he said. “This is surprising since many people think of real estate as a good inflation hedge.”
He noted that the Case-Shiller national home price index went up 89% in the 10 years between September 2015 and August 2025, “a lot better than in NYC and also far higher than the 36% inflation.”
The reasons for Manhattan’s “lost decade” in condo prices are as varied as they are disputed. The cap on state and local tax deductions that began in 2018 put pressure on prices and demand, as did a 2019 rent law. The migration of some higher earners to Florida during Covid also added to real estate fears, although the population and demand quickly rebounded.
The one exception to the trend was the top of the market. Those who bought and sold apartments for $10 million or more made double-digit profits, no matter when they initially bought.
Brokers and analysts say the increased concentration of wealth at the top, rising stock markets and ceaseless demand from those who are less affected by economic and market cycles has powered continued gains in the luxury market.
“The higher end has fared better over the decade, especially in, let’s say, the top 4% of the market,” Miller said. “The reason is Wall Street and financial markets. And the ability to buy in cash, independent of interest rates.”
Two thirds of the apartment deals done in the third quarter were done in cash, Miller said, far above the historical average of around 53% and showing the continued dependence of the Manhattan market on wealthy buyers who don’t need mortgages.
In a market defined by frequent ups and downs, brokers say the current upswing presents an opportunity for both buyers and sellers.
“I’m bullish and have a very positive outlook for New York real estate,” said Jared Antin, executive director at Brown Harris Stevens and a co-author of the report. “While some people may have lost money on the deals [over the decade], the losses were negligible. It speaks to the blue chip nature of the Manhattan market. Does everyone want to make money on their real estate? Of course. But this market is incredibly stable.”
Sellers who bought during the dip in 2020 and early 2021 could also see profits when they start to sell, Antin said.
Still, with median prices hovering near all-time highs and uncertainty around the upcoming mayoral election, many potential buyers prefer to stay on the sidelines and rent, even if they can afford to buy. The number of households in New York City making more than $1 million a year who are renting more than doubled between 2019 and 2023, to 5,661, according to a report from RentCafe.
What’s more, signed contracts for high-end apartments — priced at $4 million or more — fell 39% in September, according to Olshan Realty, following increases in August and July. Brokers blame a rapid decline in inventory and lack of new supply from condo developments rather than a decline in demand or fears that Zohran Mamdani, a democratic socialist, would become the next mayor of New York City.
“There certainly is a downside risk to policy,” Miller said. “But as we’ve seen in the past, those fears are usually overblown.”
Business
Who is Karthik Narain? Google Cloud taps Accenture veteran as chief product & business officer – The Times of India
Google Cloud appointed Karthik Narain as its chief product & business officer. Narain will oversee product and engineering teams across cloud, developer, data, and Applied AI, as well as the go-to-market organization, while working closely with Google Public Sector.“After more than 25 years in the tech consulting industry, I am excited to share the next chapter of my career – I am joining @GoogleCloud as its first Chief Product & Business Officer,” said Narain.“This is an incredible opportunity to combine my expertise in engineering and product strategy, and my experience with enterprise systems and business processes with Google’s world-class foundational technologies and cutting-edge AI innovation to drive profound digital transformation. The opportunity to unlock immense value for Google Cloud’s customers and partners is unparalleled, and I can’t wait to get started!” he added to his statement on LinkedIn.
Who is Karthik Narain?
Karthik Narain joins Google Cloud from Accenture, where he served as Group Chief Executive of Technology, Chief Technology Officer, and Chair of the Board of Avanade. At Accenture, he led the company’s technology vision and strategy, overseeing the market-leading Cloud-First and Data & AI businesses. Narain’s expertise spans cloud, data & AI, security, enterprise and industry platforms, developer tools, and application & infrastructure engineering. He has led major cloud and AI-based modernization projects for Fortune 4000 companies across industries, as well as public sector entities worldwide. He holds a Master’s degree in Computer Science from Bharathidasan University in Tiruchirappalli. At Google Cloud, Narain is responsible for product development, global revenue, and go-to-market strategies.Narain’s appointment comes at a time of rapid growth for Google Cloud, which recently launched Gemini Enterprise, its AI-powered platform that has received strong customer response. CEO Sunder Pichai welcomed Narain, noting that he will partner closely with cloud customers to accelerate their AI transformation journeys. “I’m excited that Karthik Narain is joining Google Cloud as its Chief Product and Business Officer, a key leader on Thomas Kurian’s exceptional team. Karthik will partner closely with our Cloud customers as they transform their businesses with AI. In his new role, Karthik will help accelerate the strong growth we are already seeing in Google Cloud. Just over a week ago, we announced Gemini Enterprise, which has had a really positive response. Much more to come, welcome Karthik!” said Pichai in a post on LinkedIn.Cloud CEO Thomas Kurian also highlighted Narain’s experience in developing enterprise technology solutions saying, “we welcome Karthik Narain to Google Cloud as Chief Product & Business Officer. He will lead product and engineering teams across cloud, developer, data and Applied AI, the go-to-market organization, and work closely with Google Public Sector. Karthik’s proven track record with clients, along with his unparalleled depth of experience in developing enterprise technology solutions will accelerate our customers’ journey into the AI era. Welcome to the team, Karthik!”
Bethan LewisEducation & family correspondent, BBC Wales News
Robin LloydFrom her Monmouthshire home, Robin Lloyd was able to see houses over the border in England knowing the families who lived there could access free childcare for their babies.
Robin and her husband decided to leave Chepstow and Wales and moved a 30-minute drive away to Gloucestershire so they would be eligible for support for children from nine months old.
In Wales, free childcare for two-year-olds is being expanded, prioritising disadvantaged areas but there is no support for younger children.
The Welsh government said its childcare programmes were “sustainable” and prioritising “more disadvantaged communities”.
Robin, a 35-year-old nurse, started thinking about childcare during her pregnancy.
“I realised that I would be paying almost double my mortgage each month in childcare in Wales but I could see England out of my window and the people in the houses over there would be having financial support,” she said.
“I knew I wanted more than one child but the cost of childcare was going to mean that it wasn’t going to be possible until my son was pretty much four years old.
“We were very cautious about the whole process but eventually decided that the way to afford a family of two children was to move to England.”
The move to the Forest of Dean cost £15,000 in solicitors’ fees and stamp duty “but overall was going to be a heck of a lot cheaper than trying to pay childcare in Wales”.
‘Really sad about it’
Since 1 September, working parents in England have been offered 30 hours of childcare a week during term time for children aged nine months to four years old.
There have been concerns about the availability of places and the cost of extra, unfunded hours.
But Robin said she had been able to get two days of funded childcare a week for her one-year-old, while she and her husband work part-time.
“That makes it far more affordable for somebody like me who’s just a nurse,” she said.
“I don’t have megabucks to be able to afford a home for my family and to have childcare.
“I’m really sad about it. I’ve left my home. But ultimately, if it means I can have the family, it’s worth it.”
In Wales, there is currently no childcare funding for children under two.
However the Welsh government is rolling out 12.5 hours of free care a week for all two to three-year-olds under the Flying Start scheme.
It said it had reached 15,901children through the scheme by the end of 2024-25 – roughly 52% of two-year-olds in Wales.
The next phase of expansion in 2025-26, funded by an extra £25m, is expected to “reach more than 4,000 additional children”, it said.
The Flying Start scheme is being extended by postcode, focusing on the most deprived areas first.
Merthyr Tydfil has become the first county in Wales to offer a place to all two-year-olds under the programme.
It covered a place every afternoon at Little Rascals nursery in Merthyr for Grace’s daughter, which she describes as “invaluable”.
She thinks it is important that all parents of young children, not just those who are working, are eligible for the support, meaning there is a “level playing field”.
‘Swathes don’t benefit’
“It’s so beneficial to have this programme for Merthyr, for everyone living here to have the opportunity for their children to go into childcare at such a young age without any stress about fees,” she said.
On the same site, Ana’s son goes to the forest school, where the children spend most of the day learning outside.
Their postcode was the last in Merthyr to become eligible for Flying Start childcare support in April.
“It’s such a shame that there are swathes of our country that don’t benefit from that,” she said.
“You just have to set foot inside one of these nurseries to find out how children love being around each other and learning from each other.”
In Merthyr, council bosses said “100% of early years providers” were able to offer Flying Start places, with capacity for all two-year-olds in county.
“This has been achieved over a considerable period of time, ensuring that we’ve got enough childcare places and that’s really important in all of this – making sure that whatever we commit to we’ve got enough childcare places,” said Sarah Ostler, the early years and Flying Start manager for Merthyr Tydfil council.
She said they had used Welsh government funding to extend the provision and had made sure there was “a suitably-qualified and experienced workforce”.
But in Monmouthshire, a councillor said parents were acutely aware of the different offer over the border in England.
Conservative county councillor Lisa Dymock said a number of people had moved to the area from Bristol with many under the impression they would be offered the same childcare offer as in England.
“Whilst they may have settled and live in a lovely location like south-east Monmouthshire, they’ve now realised [they’re] not entitled to this free childcare and they’re having to re-examine their budgets and their outgoings, which is hard for a young family,” she said.
‘Making a real difference’
Ms Dymock said that while Flying Start was “a very good scheme” it did not help women who needed to return to work and she wanted the English offer matched in Wales.
“I think that will help the household income, residents’ careers but also children’s development,” she said.
“I just think it’s a huge benefit and it’s what my residents are asking for – it’s what people want.”
The Welsh government said its childcare programmes were “making a real difference for families across Wales”.
It said the flying Start programme was now being extended two all two-year-olds.
“We’ve prioritised our more disadvantaged communities and made sure provision is sustainable”, a spokesperson said.
They said the Childcare Offer for Wales, providing up to 30 hours per week of care for three and four-year-olds, was more generous than England’s scheme.
“Unlike in England, it is available to parents in training and education as well as those in work and is available 48 weeks per year, compared to England’s 38 weeks.”
What are the political parties’ childcare promises?
In its autumn conference, Plaid Cymru announced it would offer at least 20 hours’ free childcare for 48 weeks a year to all children nine months to four years old by 2031.
The current offer of 30 hours for some three and four-year-olds would continue.
The Welsh Liberal Democrats said it would introduce 30 hours per week of childcare for children from nine months to school age and invest in school holiday provision.
The Welsh Conservatives said it would replicate the childcare offer in England of 30 hours a week for working parents of nine month to four-years-olds during term time.
It said there would be more details in its manifesto for the Senedd election.
Welsh Labour said it was “proud” to roll out free childcare for two-year-olds, providing a tax break for nurseries and expanding subsidised childcare for three and four-year-olds.
It is still discussing the offer for 2026 and beyond, the party said.
Reform UK said it was putting together a manifesto to “deliver the real change Wales needs”.
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One in three Manhattan condo owners lost money when they sold in the last year
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