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Family offices fear dollar depreciation, lower investment returns in wake of tariffs
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A version of this article first appeared in CNBC’s Inside Wealth newsletter with Robert Frank, a weekly guide to the high-net-worth investor and consumer. Sign up to receive future editions, straight to your inbox.
Family offices have been investing with more caution since President Donald Trump’s tariff announcement in early April, according to a recent survey released by RBC Wealth Management and research firm Campden Wealth.
In a poll of 141 investment firms of ultra-wealthy families in North America, the majority (52%) of respondents said cash and other liquid assets would offer the best returns over the next 12 months. More than 30% said artificial intelligence would offer the best returns. Respondents could pick multiple answers.
In last year’s survey, growth equities and defense industries were the most popular choices, each tallying just under a third of respondents.
Family offices also lowered their expectations for 2025 returns, reporting an average expected portfolio return of 5% for the year, down from 11% in 2024. Fifteen percent of respondents said they expected negative returns, while nearly none did the year prior. The most popular investment priority for 2025 was improving liquidity, which was selected by nearly half of family offices. Last year’s top choice, at 34%, was portfolio diversification.
The survey was conducted from April through August. RBC Wealth Management’s Bill Ringham said that tariff-induced market turmoil and geopolitical tensions played a “pivotal role” in the pessimistic poll results.
While U.S. markets have rebounded to record highs since the spring, family offices still have other reasons to be bearish. A whopping 52% of survey respondents cited depreciation of the U.S. dollar as a likely market risk. The dollar has dropped by nearly 9% since the beginning of the year, and banks including UBS expect depreciation to continue.
The slowdown in exits for private equity and venture capital — a common complaint from family offices, per the report — continues to drag on. Nearly a quarter of respondents said private equity funds have not met their expected investment returns for 2025, and 15% said the same of private equity direct investments. Venture capital scored the lowest net sentiment, with 33% of respondents reporting unsatisfactory returns.
That said, family offices are flocking to cash not only to mitigate risk, but also to make opportunistic bets in the future, Ringham said.
“They’re taking a much longer vision of their legacy and their family,” said Ringham, who directs private wealth strategies for RBC’s U.S. arm. “By doing this, they’re probably creating the capital to take advantage of opportunities as they see them coming through in the market.”
This cautious optimism can be seen in the respondents’ intended asset allocation changes, he said. Only a net 3% of family offices plan to increase their allocation to cash and liquid assets, compared to 20% for direct private equity investments, and 13% for private equity funds.
Investing in private markets is a necessity to create enough wealth to beat inflation and accommodate a growing family, Ringham said.
“When family offices are putting together portfolios, they’re obviously looking at time horizons that can last much longer than individuals that don’t have this type of legacy wealth. I mean, we’re looking at 100 years to 100 years plus,” he said. “If you’re taking the long view, even though you might realize that private equity hasn’t been performing that well over the past couple years, it’s still a place where historical returns might have exceeded returns that you might find elsewhere.”
Business
Iran oil attacks trigger 35% gas price spike – and fears of interest rate rises
Britain is to “step up” defensive support for Gulf states after Iran attacked energy sites across the region in a “serious escalation” of the war that could push up inflation and interest rates.
The price of Brent crude climbed as high as $119 a barrel and European gas prices briefly surged by 35 per cent after Iran pounded Qatar’s Ras Laffan energy hub and other Middle Eastern oil and gas infrastructure with missiles.
Interest rates were held at 3.75 per cent instead of the previously expected cut, as the Bank of England warned that the war could push inflation as high as 3.5 per cent by July on the back of rising energy bills, and that rates could rise – creating misery for homeowners.
It came as:
- US defence secretary Pete Hegseth said “ungrateful” European allies should be thanking Donald Trump for the war
- Trump claimed he was unaware of Israel’s strike on Iran’s South Pars gas field
- Oman called the US/Israel attacks a “grave miscalculation”
- Europe’s biggest airlines warned of higher fares
Iran’s attacks were in retaliation to an Israeli strike on the vital South Pars gas field, which drew condemnation from the Gulf states as well as Tehran. It was the first attack of the war so far on an energy production facility. Tehran fired missiles at multiple energy sites across the Gulf, including a Saudi oil refinery, Qatari gas facilities and two more oil refineries in Kuwait.
While Sir Keir Starmer and Emmanuel Macron called for de-escalation, President Trump threatened to “massively blow up” the South Pars facility if Iran did not halt its retaliatory attacks, repeating his claim that US forces had “obliterated” Iran’s navy and military, adding that the war was “substantially ahead of schedule”. He denied that plans were being made to send more American troops to the region.
John Healey, the UK defence secretary, said Tehran’s tit-for-tat responses threatened to further destabilise the region and Europe’s economies. He called them a “serious escalation”, adding: “They further destabilise the region and we will step up the defensive support that we can offer to those Gulf states.”
British forces are already deployed to the Middle East, with RAF jets flying defensive sorties against Iranian drones across the Gulf and British air defence systems protecting critical infrastructure in Saudi Arabia. UK military planners have also joined US Central Command to help formulate proposals for opening the Strait of Hormuz, a critical trade route for the world’s oil and gas.But there were signs of growing frustration towards Washington’s war aims in the Gulf states, with Oman’s foreign minister claiming that the conflict was President Trump’s “greatest miscalculation”.
In the most scathing attack on Washington’s foreign policy yet by a Gulf state, Badr Albusaidi said “this is not America’s war” and criticised Mr Trump for supporting Israel. Writing in The Economist, he called on American allies to help extricate it from the conflict, which has continued for a third week despite failing to achieve the US and Israel’s stated aim of instigating regime change in Tehran or stopping its nuclear programme.
Meanwhile, the Bank of England has warned that it may have to put up interest rates if the war continues to drive up inflation and unemployment. Its governor, Andrew Bailey, said the impact was already being felt by consumers as petrol prices surge and that he is “ready to act as necessary to ensure inflation remains on track to meet the 2 per cent target”. That would pave the way for a rate hike as early as the end of April.
Bets on the financial markets suggest a 50/50 chance that Britain will face higher interest rates from next month – and the possibility of two more rises by the end of the year.
Danni Hewson, head of financial analysis at AJ Bell, said: “Markets are now pricing in an almost 50 per cent chance that April’s meeting will see rates rise to 4 per cent with the potential for two additional rate hikes by the end of the year. But no one has a crystal ball. No one knows how long the conflict will last or the amount of damage that could be inflicted on crucial energy infrastructure by the time it ends.”
Business
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US considers lifting sanctions on some Iranian oil
“To put it mildly, this is bananas,” said David Tannenbaum, director of Blackstone Compliance Services, a consultancy specialising in maritime sanctions. “Essentially we’re allowing Iran to sell oil, which could then be used to fund the war effort.”
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