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Financial investment and capital gains | The Express Tribune

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Financial investment and capital gains | The Express Tribune


Short-term capital gains do not bode well for developing economy where millions are underemployed or unemployed


LAHORE:

The current macroeconomic framework promotes a private debt financed consumption boom through fresh borrowing at a low policy rate. People have increased consumption by borrowing through commercial banks. They have been buying consumer durable goods for the last couple of years.

This consumption is also supported by a boom in the stock market as the PSX index is hovering around 176,000. The index has jumped around 52% in calendar year 2025.

The increase in stock prices creates a feeling among investors and they perceive themselves as if they are rich. On this basis, they increase consumption. This is an indirect way to increase consumption demand in the economy where rising asset prices play a pivotal role. In the economic jargon, this is known as the wealth effect.

Financial capitalists invest in real estate, stock market and gold. All these fall in the category of financial investments. These investments involve a change of ownership in the secondary market. Considering the current stagnancy of the real estate market, wealthy individuals have also parked their capital in gold in the last couple of years to get quick returns.

Gold prices are at an all-time high of Rs460,000 per tola. The high international prices of gold have made these returns possible for the wealthy investors. In the jargon, these returns are known as capital gains.

Capital gains attract financial investments to a great extent. If capital gains are high, they reduce the acquisition cost of financial assets. The reduction in acquisition cost makes these investments quite attractive for financial investors/capitalists. Furthermore, entry and exit from the financial markets are relatively easy as they are quite organised and orderly.

On the other hand, capital gains increase the replacement cost of real investment. In simple words, it means that new real investment becomes costly. Here, the real investment means investment in equipment, machinery, tools and fixtures, which increases the productive capacity of the economy.

In addition, real investments cannot be recouped easily. For instance, a garment manufacturer cannot exit his business with ease as he has to sell his machines, tools and fixtures and this process takes a considerable period of time. If he sells them, it will depreciate their value. Therefore, capital gains have a depressing effect on real investments.

Financial assets also attract portfolio investments from abroad. Foreign institutional investors chase low-yielding stocks in order to book high capital gains. If shares are valued low at the stock market, these financial investors buy stocks which would re-rate their valuations. This would perpetuate the boom at the stock market.

Capital gains have a positive impact on the financial account of balance of payments (BOP). However, they have a negative impact on the current account balance owing to higher imports, which contribute to current account deficit.

On the one hand, capital gains would increase consumption, which will increase the aggregate demand. On the other hand, capital gains would decrease real investment and turn the current account balance into a deficit by attracting capital inflows from abroad in the form of portfolio investment. This would reduce the aggregate demand.

However, the economy follows a consumption-led regime, where the positive effect of consumption outweighs the negative effects of real investment and capital inflows.

In short, financial investors/capitalists have been calling the shots in this globalised world. High capital gains divert investment away from the real investment. These short-term gains are obtained at the cost of long-term loss, ie, productive capacity. This situation does not bode well for a developing economy where teeming millions are either underemployed or unemployed.

The writer is an independent economist and authored a book: Pakistan’s Structural Economic Problems in the era of Financial Globalisation



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Trump raises new global tariffs to 15% after hitting out at ‘terrible’ Supreme Court

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Trump raises new global tariffs to 15% after hitting out at ‘terrible’ Supreme Court


Donald Trump has increased global tariffs to 15 per cent as he hit out at a Supreme Court ruling that struck down his previous import levies, calling the ruling “terrible” and branding the justices who rejected his trade policy as “fools”.

On Friday, the US president said he would replace the tariffs axed by the court with a 10 per cent tax on all goods entering the US. But in a post on Truth Social on Saturday he announced plans to increase this to 15 per cent.

The US president’s “reciprocal tariffs”, imposed on most of the rest of the world last April under an emergency powers law, were overturned by the US Supreme Court on Friday in a major blow to the president’s economic agenda.

But he doubled down on imposing levies following the decision, claiming the court “has been swayed by foreign interests” and other countries were “dancing in the streets, but they won’t be dancing for long, that I can assure you”.

The UK scrambled to respond in the wake of the announcement, with ministers saying they expect the country’s “privileged trading position with the US” to continue following the Supreme Court’s ruling.

The UK received the lowest tariff rate of 10 per cent, and a subsequent deal struck by Sir Keir Starmer and Mr Trump saw further carve-outs for Britain’s steel industry and car manufacturers.

The US president’s latest tariff announcements raise questions over whether those deals still stand, although officials are understood to believe it will not impact on most of the UK’s trade with America, including preferential deals on steel, cars and pharmaceuticals.

Donald Trump holds up a chart of ‘reciprocal tariffs’ during his trade announcement last April (Getty)

Posting on Truth Social on Saturday afternoon, Mr Trump said: “I, as President of the United States of America, will be, effective immediately, raising the 10% Worldwide Tariff on Countries, many of which have been ‘ripping’ the U.S. off for decades, without retribution (until I came along!), to the fully allowed, and legally tested, 15% level.”

It came after a post on Friday evening said: “It is my Great Honor to have just signed, from the Oval Office, a Global 10 per cent Tariff on all Countries, which will be effective almost immediately. Thank you for your attention to this matter! PRESIDENT DONALD J. TRUMP”

He later added in a follow-up post criticising the Supreme Court Justices who ruled against his levies: “Their decision was ridiculous but, now the adjustment process begins, and we will do everything possible to take in even more money than we were taking in before!”

Speaking at the White House earlier, Mr Trump said the Supreme Court decision affirmed his ability to charge more tariffs under different statutes.

He said: “In order to protect our country, a president can actually charge more tariffs than I was charging in the past… period of a year.

“Under the various tariffs authorities, so we can use other of the statutes, other of the tariff authorities, which have also been confirmed and are fully allowed.

“Therefore, effective immediately, all national security tariffs under Section 232 and existing Section 301 tariffs, they’re existing, they’re there, remain in place, fully in place. And in full force.

“Today I will sign an order to impose a 10 per cent global tariff under Section 122, over and above our normal tariffs already being charged.

“And we’re also initiating several Section 301 and other investigations to protect our country from unfair trading practises of other countries and companies.”

A UK government spokesperson said: “This is a matter for the US to determine but we will continue to support UK businesses as further details are announced.

“Under any scenario, we expect our privileged trading position with the US to continue and will work with the administration to understand how the ruling will affect tariffs for the UK and the rest of the world.”

Trump speaks to the press in the White House on Friday

Trump speaks to the press in the White House on Friday (AP)

It was an updated version of a statement released earlier in response to the court ruling, but removed a reference to the UK enjoying “the lowest reciprocal tariffs globally”.

In the wake of the announcement, Liberal Democrat leader Sir Ed Davey said the UK government should sue Mr Trump for $100bn for the damage caused to the UK by trade tariffs, arguing it is “the only language he understands”.

He branded Mr Trump the “most dangerous, damaging US president of modern times” as he welcomed the “brilliant” decision by the US Supreme Court on Friday.

It came after Mr Trump said that some trade deals negotiated after he imposed his reciprocal tariffs will no longer be valid after the US Supreme Court ruling.

“Some of them stand. Many of them stand. Some of them won’t, and they’ll be replaced with the other tariffs,” he said.

When he first announced the 10 per cent “global tariff”, the US president said it would be in place for around five months.

“We’re going straight ahead with 10 per cent straight across the board… and then during that period of about five months, we are doing the various investigations necessary to put fair tariffs, or tariffs period, on other countries.

“So we’re doing that, period, but we’re immediately instituting the 10 per cent provision, which we’re allowed to do. And in the end, I think we’re taking more money than we’ve taken in before.”

The US has collected more than $133bn (£98.4bn) since Mr Trump imposed the tariffs, but now faces the prospect of having to refund that money to importers.

Friday’s decision, approved by a 6-3 majority, found that a 1977 law did not give Mr Trump the power to impose tariffs without the approval of the US Congress.

The British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) said the decision did little to “clear the murky waters for business” around US tariffs.

William Bain, head of trade policy at the BCC, said Mr Trump could use other legislation to reimpose tariffs.

He said: “For the UK, the priority remains bringing tariffs down wherever possible. It’s important the UK government continues to negotiate on issues like steel and aluminium tariffs and reduces the scope of other possible duties.”

Campaign group Best for Britain said the decision “underlines the instability of doing deals with Trump’s USA and the importance of forging deeper, more reliable trade with our EU neighbours”.



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US eyes investment in IT, mining, energy | The Express Tribune

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US eyes investment in IT, mining, energy | The Express Tribune


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24 revenue estates digitised in capital to stop fraud practices. Photo file


ISLAMABAD:

The United States has expressed interest in investing in Pakistan’s IT, mining, minerals and energy sectors, as both countries agreed, on Saturday, to maintain engagement on large-scale projects, according to the Ministry of Finance.

Federal Minister for Finance Muhammad Aurangzeb met US Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick in Washington, where the two sides discussed promoting trade and investment between Pakistan and the United States.

The ministry said American interest was conveyed in ICT, mining, minerals and energy. Both countries reaffirmed their commitment to strengthening economic cooperation and welcomed the holding of the US-Pakistan Trade and Investment Forum on March 31, 2026.

Prominent companies from both sides and ministerial-level participation are expected at the forum. The finance minister is likely to attend the US Department of Commerce event. A Pakistani delegation, led by Aurangzeb, met Lutnick at the Department of Commerce in Washington DC. The finance minister was accompanied by the secretary commerce, Pakistan’s ambassador to the United States and trade and economic ministers.

According to the statement, both sides reiterated their desire to enhance economic cooperation, particularly in trade and investment, and agreed to continue engagement on investment in major projects in the coming months.



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Slovakia threatens to cut Ukraine electricity | The Express Tribune

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Slovakia threatens to cut Ukraine electricity | The Express Tribune


Slovakia’s Prime Minister and leader of Smer party Robert Fico. PHOTO: REUTERS


BENGALURU:

Slovakia’s Prime Minister Robert Fico threatened on Saturday to cut off emergency electricity supplies to Ukraine unless Kyiv acts within two days to resume the pumping of Russian oil to Slovakia over Ukraine’s territory, cut off for nearly a month.

Slovakia, along with Hungary, is one of just two EU countries that still rely on significant amounts of Russian oil shipped via the Soviet-era Druzhba pipeline over Ukraine. Both also have leaders that have maintained close relations with Moscow, bucking a largely pro-Ukrainian European consensus.

Russian oil through the main Druzhba pipe has been cut off since January 27, when Kyiv says a Russian drone strike hit pipeline equipment in Western Ukraine. Slovakia and Hungary have become increasingly vocal this week in demanding it resume.

Slovakia, meanwhile, is also a major source of European electricity for Ukraine, needed as Russian attacks have damaged its grid. Energy sector experts say Slovakia provided 18% of record-setting Ukrainian electricity imports last month.

“If oil supplies to Slovakia are not resumed on Monday, I will ask SEPS, the state-owned joint-stock company, to stop emergency electricity supplies to Ukraine,” Fico said in a post on X.

Ukraine has proposed alternative transit routes to ship oil to Europe while emergency pipeline repair works are under way. In a letter seen by Reuters, the Ukrainian mission to the EU proposed shipments through Ukraine’s oil transportation system or a maritime route, potentially including the Odesa-Brody pipeline linking Ukraine’s main Black Sea port to the EU.



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