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Funding railways, dams from overseas Pakistanis | The Express Tribune

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Funding railways, dams from overseas Pakistanis | The Express Tribune



KARACHI:

The catastrophic floods in Pakistan have left a trail of devastation across our economy, society, and environment. More than 1,700 lives were lost in 2022, with 33 million citizens affected, 2.1 million displaced, and 10% of the country submerged.

Agriculture – the backbone of our exports – was crippled, with farmland, homes, and infrastructure worth up to $40 billion destroyed. Once again in 2025, Punjab’s breadbasket is underwater: over 2,000 villages and thousands of farms submerged, disrupting wheat and cotton output and endangering food security. These recurring tragedies underscore the fragility of our economy in the face of climate change and lack of infrastructure.

No dams, no railways, no growth

Pakistan’s grievance is valid – we contribute less than 0.5% of global CO2 emissions, yet we bear disproportionate climate costs. But blaming the external environment is not enough. Weak urban planning, illegal encroachments, lack of water reservoirs, and ineffective early-warning systems amplified the destruction. We cannot afford to remain reactive; prevention and resilience must become national priorities.

Another equally paralysing challenge has been the decade-long delay in financing Pakistan’s mainline railway from Karachi to Peshawar. In 2013, the then PML-N leadership promised a bullet train. Ambitious, yes – but unrealistic. A 160 km/h modern rail network may lack the glamour of bullet trains, yet it would transform passenger and freight movement, cut travel time, and integrate our economy. The tragedy is not the lack of vision, but the absence of financing to turn the second-best into reality.

Financing the missing link

What is common between flood rehabilitation and railway modernisation – financing. Both are big-ticket projects costing $4-10 billion over five to seven years, requiring more dollars than any IMF bailout can provide.

An IMF programme, after all, is not about dollars from Washington; it is about international endorsement – unlocking bilateral, multilateral, capital market, and friendly-nation financing. Yet, we have boxed ourselves into dependency, forever waiting for others to fund what is existentially important to us.

Your author has consistently argued for crowdfunding infrastructure through Shariah-compliant, dollar-denominated savings instruments. Pakistanis at home and abroad must be given the opportunity to invest directly in their nation’s future. These projects are asset-backed – rail lines, stations, land, bridges – which can be pledged to create Islamic structures attractive to retail savers, high-net-worth individuals, pension funds, and insurers alike. The Roshan Digital Account (RDA) platform is tailor-made for this mobilisation.

Overseas Pakistanis to pour in dollars

As of June 2025, a net $1.4 billion remains outstanding in Naya Pakistan Certificates after maturities. Why stop there? Launch a new instrument – Roshan Pakistan Assets (RPA) or Pakistan Resilience Fund (PRF) – with a 10-year maturity, offering 8.25% return in dollars.

Add non-financial incentives: airline miles, retail discounts, waived passport or NADRA fees, and recognition as eligible collateral for bank loans. Let every Pakistani saver feel that their dollar not only earns but also builds Pakistan.

Do not fear the repayment risk. Already, of the $11 billion gross raised through RDAs, nearly two-thirds has been invested locally, reducing outflow pressure. These funds circulate within Pakistan, for Pakistanis, and are reinvested in our own economy. The greater risk is complacency – rolling over bilateral loans and IMF tranches indefinitely. We must take ownership of our destiny, fund our own resilience, and demand recognition on the global stage not as borrowers, but as builders of our own tomorrow.

The writer is an independent economic analyst



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Gold and silver sell-off gathers steam in correction after record highs

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Gold and silver sell-off gathers steam in correction after record highs



Gold and silver prices have continued to drop sharply in a “brutal” sell-off after hitting record highs in recent weeks.

The precious metals began falling on Friday in response to US President Donald Trump’s nomination for the incoming chairman of the Federal Reserve.

His choice for former Fed governor Kevin Warsh to replace current chairman Jerome Powell when his term ends in May soothed some investor nerves, which boosted the US dollar but saw appetite for safe-haven investments gold and silver slump in response.

Gold and silver suffered their worst trading days for decades on Friday and were down heavily again on Monday, with spot prices off by another 7% and 11% respectively at one stage.

Silver had plunged by nearly 30% on Friday and gold dropped over 9% in its worst one-day drop since 1983.

Gold and silver had been enjoying a record breaking rally as investors sought refuge amid global geopolitical uncertainty, conflict and tariff woes.

Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote, said: “The sell-off has been far more brutal than I, and many, expected.”

He added: “For silver, the rally on the way up was faster than gold’s, so the correction on the way down is faster too.”

Kathleen Brooks, research director at XTB, added: “If the sell off continues, then gold and silver are at risk of eroding their losses for the year so far.

“The historic move lower in silver prices has not stemmed a fall at the start of this week.

“Traders have not yet found a level that they are happy to buy the dips, and the timing of Chinese Lunar New Year in mid-February could accelerate the sell off, as Chinese traders reduce risk ahead of the holiday.”

UK and US stock markets are expected to open in the red on Monday, as the gold and silver rout has a knock on effect on mining giants, while Brent oil was also 5% lower.

Derren Nathan, head of equity research at Hargreaves Lansdown, said: “Mining stocks are likely to feel the heat as metal prices scramble to find a floor.

“Oil prices are also trending the wrong way for investors in commodity-focused companies.”



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Budget’s mild fiscal consolidation to be positive for GDP growth: Report

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Budget’s mild fiscal consolidation to be positive for GDP growth: Report


Mumbai: Lower revenue as a share of GDP has been more than offset by cuts to subsidies and spending on current schemes, leading to the smallest fiscal consolidation in six years, likely positive for growth, a new report has said. 

The fiscal consolidation for FY27 is the slowest in six years. And the budgeted disinvestment, which is a below-the-line funding item, is likely to see the highest rise in six years, the report from HSBC Global Investment Research said.

“The central government continues with fiscal consolidation, though signing up for a gentler path for FY27; the fiscal impulse will likely turn neutral after several years in the negative, and this should be good news for GDP growth,” the research firm added.

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The report said that the services sector was the focus of the Budget, “with ambitious plans and increased outlays for medical institutions, universities, tourism, sports facilities, and the creative economy.”

Urban infrastructure saw a renewed push with each City Economic Region (CER) set to receive get Rs 50 billion over 5 years.

Seven new high-speed rail corridors will connect major cities, the report noted, adding large cities will also get an incentive of Rs 1 billion if they issue municipal bonds worth more than Rs 10 billion.

The report highlighted policy priorities, saying, “new manufacturing sectors were given incentives, namely biopharma, semiconductors, electronic components, rare earth corridors, chemical parks, container manufacturing, and high-tech tool rooms.”

Direct taxes are expected to grow faster than nominal GDP while indirect taxes will expand more slowly, with gross tax revenues budgeted to rise about 8 per cent year‑on‑year, the report said.

Central government set a fiscal deficit target of 4.3 per cent of GDP for FY27 after a 4.4 per cent estimate for FY26, and nominal GDP growth was pegged at 10 per cent.



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India’s $5 trillion economy push: How ‘C+1’ strategy could turn country into world’s factory

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India’s  trillion economy push: How ‘C+1’ strategy could turn country into world’s factory


New Delhi: India is preparing for a major economic transformation. The Union Budget 2026-27 lays out measures that could make the country the top choice for global manufacturing using the popular ‘China +1’ (C+1) strategy. This comes as international companies rethink supply chains after COVID-19 disruptions, rising trade tariffs and geopolitical tensions.

India has positioned itself as the backup factory for the world that is ready to absorb international demand in case of any crisis in China or Taiwan.

The government has offered tax breaks for cell phone, laptop, and semiconductor makers, making India more attractive to foreign investors. Reducing bureaucratic hurdles for global firms, the budget also strengthens the National Single Window System to simplify business procedures. The message is clear: India is ready to step in as a global manufacturing hub, ensuring supply continuity for the world.

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The expressway to a $5 trillion economy

China presently dominates about 40% of global manufacturing. Its factories supply critical products worldwide, but 2026 is expected to be a turning point. Expanding influence and economic opacity have made global companies seek alternatives.

India has leveraged this moment, offering a comprehensive incentive package for foreign manufacturers. Analysts call it more than policy; it is a blueprint to become a $5 trillion economy and reclaim India’s historic position as a global industrial leader.

Why the world needs India now

The COVID-19 pandemic exposed the dangers of over-reliance on a single supplier. When China halted medical exports, nations realised the need for diversified supply chains. Major companies such as Apple and Samsung now see India as a dependable alternative.

China’s aging workforce and rising labour costs further enhance India’s appeal. With 65% of its population under 35, India offers a vast, skilled and affordable workforce for decades. The geopolitical uncertainty surrounding Taiwan, which produces 90% of advanced chips, has also created demand for a secure manufacturing backup. India is stepping in to fill that gap.

How India stands to gain from China’s challenges

India’s budget, 2026-27, slashes import duties on cell phone and laptop components, turning the country into a hub for component manufacturing, not just assembly. Electronics exports are projected to cross $120 billion by 2025.

The government has also launched a Rs 1.5 lakh crore semiconductor mission, attracting companies like Tata and Micron to establish advanced chip plants in India. In the chemical sector, stricter environmental regulations in China have shut down several plants, benefiting Indian companies such as Privi Specialty and Aarti Industries, which are now filling gaps in global supply chains.

Incentives for companies

The Production Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme promises cash rewards for output, covering over 14 sectors. This is India’s answer to Chinese subsidies. From land acquisition to electricity connections, the National Single Window System now enables businesses to clear all approvals through a single portal.

Infrastructure investment has also received a massive boost, with Rs 11.11 lakh crore allocated under PM GatiShakti. New ports and dedicated freight corridors are being built to ensure that exports from India reach the world faster and cheaper than ever before.

India’s moves points to a strategic shift in global manufacturing. By rolling out the red carpet for foreign companies and investing heavily in infrastructure, technology and policy reforms, the country is poised to become the go-to destination for global supply chains. The C+1 formula is not only a concept; it is a roadmap to turn India into the next industrial superpower and a $5 trillion economy.

 

 



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