Global export growth eases in Q2 2025 amid US tariff pressures: Fitch

The global trade volumes slowed noticeably in the second quarter (Q2) of 2025, reversing the sharp increase recorded in the first quarter (Q1) of 2025, a move which had been triggered by importers front-loading ahead of the implementation of US tariffs, according to Fitch Ratings, a company of S&P Global.

An example of this trade volatility is shown by US imports in Q1 2025 and Q2 2025, when volumes increased 30 per cent year-over-year (YoY) in March but then contracted to -2.8 per cent YoY by June, as highlighted in the latest ‘Fitch-20 Economic Monitor’.

With an average US effective tariff rate of 16 per cent, it expects global trade to slow further in the coming months. At a regional level, export volumes in the two months to June slowed in advanced economies and China but recovered in Korea and Australia. Exports from Mexico, a major trading partner of the US, were flat in Q2, Fitch said in its non-rating action commentary.

The global trade volumes fell in Q2 2025 after a Q1 surge driven by importers front-loading ahead of US tariffs, according to Fitch Ratings.
US import growth slowed from 30 per cent YoY in March to 2.8 per cent in June, with the average effective US tariff at 16 per cent.
Exports weakened in advanced economies and China, while India’s imports rebounded 11 per cent after a sharp Q1 decline.

Import growth slowed sharply in Brazil from 16 per cent in Q1 2025 to 4 per cent in Q2 2025, as past monetary tightening continues to weigh on domestic demand. In India, import volume growth rebounded from almost -13 per cent YoY in Q1 2025 to 11 per cent YoY in Q2 2025, while in Mexico it was flat.

Fibre2Fashion News Desk (SG)