Fashion
Global export growth eases in Q2 2025 amid US tariff pressures: Fitch
An example of this trade volatility is shown by US imports in Q1 2025 and Q2 2025, when volumes increased 30 per cent year-over-year (YoY) in March but then contracted to -2.8 per cent YoY by June, as highlighted in the latest ‘Fitch-20 Economic Monitor’.
With an average US effective tariff rate of 16 per cent, it expects global trade to slow further in the coming months. At a regional level, export volumes in the two months to June slowed in advanced economies and China but recovered in Korea and Australia. Exports from Mexico, a major trading partner of the US, were flat in Q2, Fitch said in its non-rating action commentary.
The global trade volumes fell in Q2 2025 after a Q1 surge driven by importers front-loading ahead of US tariffs, according to Fitch Ratings.
US import growth slowed from 30 per cent YoY in March to 2.8 per cent in June, with the average effective US tariff at 16 per cent.
Exports weakened in advanced economies and China, while India’s imports rebounded 11 per cent after a sharp Q1 decline.
Import growth slowed sharply in Brazil from 16 per cent in Q1 2025 to 4 per cent in Q2 2025, as past monetary tightening continues to weigh on domestic demand. In India, import volume growth rebounded from almost -13 per cent YoY in Q1 2025 to 11 per cent YoY in Q2 2025, while in Mexico it was flat.
Fibre2Fashion News Desk (SG)
While trends in high frequency indicators for January-February 2026 appear favourable, the heightened uncertainty around the duration of the Middle East conflict casts a shadow on the near-term macroeconomic outlook for India amid high import dependency for items like crude oil, natural gas and fertilisers, it noted.
India’s FY27 GDP growth is likely to slow to 6.5 per cent from the projected 7.5 per cent in FY26 owing to the impact of higher energy prices and concerns around energy availability, ICRA Ratings said.
The heightened uncertainty around the duration of the Iran war casts a shadow on the near-term macroeconomic outlook for India.
If the conflict lasts longer, the adverse effects could widen across sectors.
If the conflict lasts for an extended period, the adverse implications of the same could widen across sectors, amid an uptick in input costs and the consequent impact on profitability of the India corporate sector.
Amid the projected uptrend in the consumer price index-based inflation in FY27 with risks tilted to the upside, ICRA Ratings expects an extended pause on the policy rates by the central bank’s monetary policy committee in the fiscal despite the anticipated softening in the GDP growth. However, it expects the Reserve Bank of India to continue to intervene on the liquidity front during FY27.
The available data for January–February FY2026 indicate a positive trend across most non-agricultural indicators, with the year-on-year performance of 12 out of 18 indicators improving compared to the third quarter of FY26, while the remaining six deteriorated.
Fibre2Fashion News Desk (DS)
Indonesia’s apparel exports rose modestly to $8.705 billion in 2025 from $8.316 billion in 2024, reflecting gradual recovery.
The US remained dominant, accounting for over 56 per cent of shipments, highlighting growing market dependence.
While Japan, South Korea and Europe offered stability, exports stayed concentrated in key products and segments.
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Methanol prices in India have surged nearly 150 per cent from pre-Iran–US tension levels, tracking a sharp rise in crude oil and tightening global energy markets.
Hormuz disruption risks, limited rerouting capacity, rising freight and insurance costs, and constrained imports are fuelling volatility, with prices seen approaching ₹90 per kg.
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