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Global GDP growth to be resilient at 3.3% in 2026; India above US: IMF
The United States accounts for 9.9 per cent of projected worldwide GDP expansion, while China ranks higher at 26.6 per cent.
Global growth is projected at 3.3 per cent in 2026 and at 3.2 per cent in 2027, the IMF’s World Economic Outlook January 2026 Update said.
India accounts for 17 per cent of projected worldwide GDP expansion, the US accounts for 9.9 per cent, while China ranks higher at 26.6 per cent.
Global headline inflation may drop from 4.1 per cent in 2025 to 3.8 per cent in 2026 and 3.4 per cent in 2027.
The update marks a small upward revision for 2026 and no change for 2027 compared with that in the October 2025 WEO.
“This steady performance on the surface results from the balancing of divergent forces. Headwinds from shifting trade policies are offset by tailwinds from surging investment related to technology, including artificial intelligence (AI), more so in North America and Asia than in other regions, as well as fiscal and monetary support, broadly accommodative financial conditions, and adaptability of the private sector,” the report said.
Global headline inflation is expected to decline from an estimated 4.1 per cent in 2025 to 3.8 per cent in 2026 and further to 3.4 per cent in 2027, the IMF said. The inflation projections are also broadly unchanged from those in October and envisage inflation returning to target more gradually in the United States than in other large economies.
For India specifically, growth has been revised upward by 0.7 percentage points to 7.3 per cent for 2025, reflecting a better-than-expected third quarter and strong momentum in the fourth quarter. Growth in the country is projected to moderate to 6.4 per cent in 2026 and 2027 as cyclical and temporary factors fade.
While inflation in China is expected to rise gradually from low levels, inflation in India is likely to return close to target after a sharp decline in 2025.
Risks to the global outlook remain tilted to the downside. Re-evaluation of productivity growth expectations about AI could lead to a decline in investment and trigger an abrupt financial market correction, spreading from AI-linked companies to other segments and eroding household wealth, noted the report.
Trade tensions could flare up, prolonging uncertainty and weighing more heavily on activity.
Domestic political tensions or geopolitical tensions could erupt, introducing new layers of uncertainty and disrupting the global economy through their impact on financial markets, supply chains and commodity prices, the latest WEO said.
Larger fiscal deficits and high public debt could put pressure on long-term interest rates and, in turn, on broader financial conditions.
On the upside, activity could be further lifted by AI-related investment and eventually transform into sustainable growth if faster AI adoption translates into strong productivity gains and increased business dynamism.
Activity could also be supported by a sustained easing in trade tensions, it added.
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Textile & apparel exporters see margin relief from India–US trade deal
Industry players said the immediate tariff reset to around 18 per cent comes as a major relief after months of cost pressure, particularly in the US market, which remains India’s largest export destination for apparel.
Indian textile and apparel exporters have welcomed the India–US trade deal, saying the cut in US tariffs to around 18 per cent gives India a 2 per cent edge over competing sourcing nations.
Industry leaders expect immediate margin relief in Q4 2025–26, stronger US orders from the next financial year, and a broader export growth cycle as buyers reassess global sourcing strategies.
Reacting to the development, Pallab Banerjee, managing director of Pearl Global Industries Ltd, said the announcement has lifted significant uncertainty. “This is the news our industry was holding its breath for. Most exporters were forced to offer discounts to US customers to compensate for the penalty tariff. That pressure is now gone, and India has gained a 2 per cent tariff advantage compared to competing countries,” he said.
Banerjee added that the relief will be felt immediately. “The last two months of Q4 should see easing of bottom-line pressure. From Q2 of the next financial year onwards, we should also see an improvement in the top line from the US market. The brakes that were on for the last six months are now being released,” he said, linking the trade deal with the government’s broader push on infrastructure, capex, skilling and ease of doing business.
Providing a broader sourcing perspective, Kishan Daga, founder anchor of consulting firm Concepts N Strategies, said the tariff reset has redrawn the global apparel sourcing map. “The US has reduced tariffs on Indian apparel to around 18 per cent, making India more competitive than Bangladesh and Vietnam and far ahead of China, which continues to face much higher effective tariffs,” he said. Daga noted that historically, tariff advantages played a decisive role in the rise of competing sourcing hubs, and India is now well placed to reclaim lost ground. “For US buyers in activewear, athleisure and performance apparel, India has once again become a serious alternative,” he added.
Exporters also see the deal as a precursor to a broader growth cycle, especially with other FTAs on the horizon. N Thirukkumaran, chairman of Esstee Exports India Pvt Ltd, said that the sentiment across the apparel export community has turned sharply positive. “With India now among the most competitive in Asia on tariffs, the sector is expected to grow in leaps and bounds. Once the EU and UK deals come into effect, we expect apparel exports to double over the next three years,” he said, adding that large-scale capacity expansion and employment generation are likely to follow.
From the upstream, Sammir Dattani, executive director of Sanathan Textiles Ltd, said the trade deal, combined with the Union Budget’s focus on integrated value-chain development, sends a strong signal to manufacturers. “The emphasis on fibre self-reliance, modernisation of clusters, and support for man-made and technical textiles creates a solid foundation for scale and global competitiveness,” he said. Dattani added that the policy direction supports a shift towards higher-value yarns, sustainable processes and technology-driven manufacturing, helping the industry manage volatility and strengthen margins.
Industry leaders said India’s growing network of trade agreements with major markets, including the US, EU and UK, positions the country favourably at a time when global buyers are re-evaluating sourcing strategies, potentially ushering in a new growth phase for India’s textile and apparel exports.
Fibre2Fashion News Desk (KUL)
Fashion
South Korea’s apparel imports decline to $12 bn in 2025
Imports of knitted apparel and clothing accessories (Chapter **) were valued at $*.*** billion in ****, marginally higher than $*.*** billion a year earlier. Knitted categories remained relatively resilient, supported by steady year-round demand for basics and athleisure, even as overall apparel spending moderated amid cautious consumer sentiment.
By contrast, imports of non-knitted apparel and clothing accessories (Chapter **) totalled $*.*** billion, down *.** per cent from $*.*** billion in ****. These segments, which are more dependent on fashion-driven seasonal collections, faced sharper pullbacks as retailers trimmed orders to manage slower sell-through, higher inventories and increased promotional activity.
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