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Gold In 2025: After Over 50 All-Time Highs & 65% Return, What’s Next For Bullion In 2026?
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The year 2025 has been one of the best years for gold in decades, and silver outpaced gold to witness its best year since 1971. Here’re factors that will move prices in 2026.
Gold prices have increased in 2025 due to a combination of factors, including heightened geopolitical and global economic uncertainties, increased gold buying by global central banks, momentum buying by ETFs, as well as a weakening dollar and interest rate cuts across the globe.
Gold & Silver Price Updates: The year 2025 has been one of the best years for gold in decades, delivering over 60 per cent returns after hitting over 50 all-time highs. Silver outpaced gold to witness its best year since 1971. Though the precious metals are showing signs of further increase in prices, analysts said the outlook depends upon the geopolitical risks, ETF buying, central bank buying and economic situation next year.
Gold & silver prices in 2025
In the international market, gold prices had stood at nearly $2,600 an ounce as of January 1, 2025, and have consistently increased during the year. It has remained above all its moving averages this year, including the 200-day exponential moving average (DEMA), 100-DEMA, 50-DEMA, and 20-DEMA. The price now stands at about $4,300 an ounce as of December 13, 2025, which is a 65 per cent surge in prices during the calendar year 2025.
In India, gold prices in Mumbai had stood at nearly Rs 78,000 per 10 grams as of January 1, 2025, which has now increased to about Rs 1,34,000 per 10 grams. This is a jump of roughly 72 per cent during the year 2025.
Silver prices in the international market have also surged by 121% this year to about $62 an ounce as of December 13, 2025, compared with nearly $28 at the beginning of the year.
Gold and silver prices increased faster in India than the international market due to the rupee depreciation against the US dollar (which has hit a record low of 90.5 against the dollar), making gold (which is mainly imported) costlier for Indian consumers.
What factors led to such an increase in gold prices this year?
Gold prices have increased in 2025 due to a combination of factors, including heightened geopolitical and global economic uncertainties, increased gold buying by global central banks, momentum buying by ETFs, as well as a weakening dollar and interest rate cuts across the globe.
According to a Gold Return Attribution Model (GRAM) analysis, ‘risk & uncertainty’ contributed 11.5 percentage points to gold’s return this year and ‘opportunity cost’, which stems from weakening of dollar and interest rate cuts, accounted for another 10 percentage points.
“The contributions of the four main factors that drive gold have been usually balanced this year,” the World Gold Council said.
Why did silver prices rise faster than gold?
While gold demand in 2025 was driven largely by safe-haven buying and a lower opportunity cost, silver demand was supported not only by safe-haven flows but also by strong industrial consumption, specifically from the green energy transition.
“Demand from the Solar Photovoltaic (PV) sector has more than doubled in just four years, from 94.4 Moz in 2020 to 243.7 Moz in 2024. Solar alone accounted for nearly 21% of total demand in 2024, fundamentally altering the metal’s usage profile,” Axis Securities said in its latest report on silver.
It said the silver market has remained in deficit since 2021, with a cumulative shortfall of nearly 700 Moz over the 2021-2025 period. According to Refinitiv, the silver market is expected to continue in deficit in 2026, with a projected shortfall exceeding 100 Moz.
“Fears of impending US import tariffs have triggered a flight of physical metal toward US markets, sparking a historic “squeeze” in the futures market. Throughout the year, COMEX futures have persistently traded at a premium to London spot prices,” said Axis Securities.
What is the outlook for 2026?
Analysts said gold prices in 2026 depend upon macroeconomic fundamentals, geopolitical risks, central bank demand, and recycling supply.
“Recycling trends could significantly influence the market. Recycling has been unusually soft, in part due to the growing use of gold as loan collateral, particularly in India, where more than 200 tonnes of old jewellery have been pledged this year. Limited recycling supports prices, but a rise in distressed liquidation of this collateral could push secondary supply higher and weigh on the market,” according to a Delhi-based bullion market expert.
On the silver price outlook, Axis Securities said, “Prices exceeding $60/oz may begin to trigger demand destruction or thrifting/substitution (using less silver per unit) in the industrial sector. Global economic deceleration, specifically a contraction in high-tech manufacturing or electronics, could weigh on silver prices.”
December 13, 2025, 14:38 IST
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