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Gold In 2025: After Over 50 All-Time Highs & 65% Return, What’s Next For Bullion In 2026?
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The year 2025 has been one of the best years for gold in decades, and silver outpaced gold to witness its best year since 1971. Here’re factors that will move prices in 2026.
Gold prices have increased in 2025 due to a combination of factors, including heightened geopolitical and global economic uncertainties, increased gold buying by global central banks, momentum buying by ETFs, as well as a weakening dollar and interest rate cuts across the globe.
Gold & Silver Price Updates: The year 2025 has been one of the best years for gold in decades, delivering over 60 per cent returns after hitting over 50 all-time highs. Silver outpaced gold to witness its best year since 1971. Though the precious metals are showing signs of further increase in prices, analysts said the outlook depends upon the geopolitical risks, ETF buying, central bank buying and economic situation next year.
Gold & silver prices in 2025
In the international market, gold prices had stood at nearly $2,600 an ounce as of January 1, 2025, and have consistently increased during the year. It has remained above all its moving averages this year, including the 200-day exponential moving average (DEMA), 100-DEMA, 50-DEMA, and 20-DEMA. The price now stands at about $4,300 an ounce as of December 13, 2025, which is a 65 per cent surge in prices during the calendar year 2025.
In India, gold prices in Mumbai had stood at nearly Rs 78,000 per 10 grams as of January 1, 2025, which has now increased to about Rs 1,34,000 per 10 grams. This is a jump of roughly 72 per cent during the year 2025.
Silver prices in the international market have also surged by 121% this year to about $62 an ounce as of December 13, 2025, compared with nearly $28 at the beginning of the year.
Gold and silver prices increased faster in India than the international market due to the rupee depreciation against the US dollar (which has hit a record low of 90.5 against the dollar), making gold (which is mainly imported) costlier for Indian consumers.
What factors led to such an increase in gold prices this year?
Gold prices have increased in 2025 due to a combination of factors, including heightened geopolitical and global economic uncertainties, increased gold buying by global central banks, momentum buying by ETFs, as well as a weakening dollar and interest rate cuts across the globe.
According to a Gold Return Attribution Model (GRAM) analysis, ‘risk & uncertainty’ contributed 11.5 percentage points to gold’s return this year and ‘opportunity cost’, which stems from weakening of dollar and interest rate cuts, accounted for another 10 percentage points.
“The contributions of the four main factors that drive gold have been usually balanced this year,” the World Gold Council said.
Why did silver prices rise faster than gold?
While gold demand in 2025 was driven largely by safe-haven buying and a lower opportunity cost, silver demand was supported not only by safe-haven flows but also by strong industrial consumption, specifically from the green energy transition.
“Demand from the Solar Photovoltaic (PV) sector has more than doubled in just four years, from 94.4 Moz in 2020 to 243.7 Moz in 2024. Solar alone accounted for nearly 21% of total demand in 2024, fundamentally altering the metal’s usage profile,” Axis Securities said in its latest report on silver.
It said the silver market has remained in deficit since 2021, with a cumulative shortfall of nearly 700 Moz over the 2021-2025 period. According to Refinitiv, the silver market is expected to continue in deficit in 2026, with a projected shortfall exceeding 100 Moz.
“Fears of impending US import tariffs have triggered a flight of physical metal toward US markets, sparking a historic “squeeze” in the futures market. Throughout the year, COMEX futures have persistently traded at a premium to London spot prices,” said Axis Securities.
What is the outlook for 2026?
Analysts said gold prices in 2026 depend upon macroeconomic fundamentals, geopolitical risks, central bank demand, and recycling supply.
“Recycling trends could significantly influence the market. Recycling has been unusually soft, in part due to the growing use of gold as loan collateral, particularly in India, where more than 200 tonnes of old jewellery have been pledged this year. Limited recycling supports prices, but a rise in distressed liquidation of this collateral could push secondary supply higher and weigh on the market,” according to a Delhi-based bullion market expert.
On the silver price outlook, Axis Securities said, “Prices exceeding $60/oz may begin to trigger demand destruction or thrifting/substitution (using less silver per unit) in the industrial sector. Global economic deceleration, specifically a contraction in high-tech manufacturing or electronics, could weigh on silver prices.”
December 13, 2025, 14:38 IST
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8th Pay Commission: Railways to trim costs to accommodate higher wages; maintenance, procurement, energy sectors in focus – The Times of India
Railways is implementing focused cost-cutting initiatives across maintenance, procurement and energy sectors to fortify its financial position before dealing with increased wage expenses anticipated from the Eighth Pay Commission recommendations.Established in January 2024, the Eighth Pay Commission must submit its recommendations within an 18-month timeframe.The previous Seventh Pay Commission led to wage increases of 14-26% for railway staff. Its implementation began in 2016, with tenure concluding in January 2026. The national transporter is currently emphasising expense reduction to enhance operational efficiency over the next two years to prevent financial strain from the forthcoming recommendations.The Seventh Pay Commission increased the wage expenditure by Rs 22,000 crore, including salaries and pensions, whilst the current projection suggests a potential rise of Rs 30,000 crore. “We have planned for the additional fund requirement,” a senior official told Economic Times, stating that internal accruals, combined with projected savings and increased freight revenue, would cover the expenses.Indian Railways recorded an operating ratio (OR) of 98.90% in fiscal 2024-25, resulting in net revenue of Rs 1,341.31 crore. For fiscal 2025-26, the target OR is 98.43% with anticipated net revenue of Rs 3041.31 crore.Officials anticipate annual energy savings of Rs 5,000 crore following network electrification completion.Additionally, yearly payments to Indian Railway Finance Corporation (IRFC) are expected to decrease in fiscal 2027-28, as recent capital expenditure has been funded through gross budgetary support (GBS).Officials confirm no plans for new short-term borrowing. “Annual freight earnings will also rise by Rs 15,000 crore when higher wages need to be paid in 2027-28,” the official stated.The Seventh Pay Commission implemented a 2.57 fitment factor, raising minimum basic pay from Rs 7,000 to Rs 17,990. Central trade unions advocate for a 2.86 fitment factor for the Eighth Pay Commission, potentially increasing the national transporter’s wage bill by over 22%.“Railways will ensure its finances are in a good condition to absorb the hit. Funds would not be an issue,” the official confirmed.The Railways has allocated Rs 1.28 lakh crore for staff costs in 2025-26, increased from Rs 1.17 lakh crore in 2024-25. Additionally, Rs 68,602.69 crore is earmarked for the pension fund in FY26, up from Rs 66,358.69 crore in FY25.
Business
Gold, Silver Prices Jump Sharply This Week; Yellow Metal Surges By Rs 4,000
New Delhi: Gold and silver prices witnessed a sharp surge in the domestic market this week, tracking strong gains in global bullion markets. Gold prices rose by around Rs 4,000 per 10 grams, while silver prices jumped by nearly Rs 17,000 per kilogram. According to data from the India Bullion and Jewellers Association (IBJA), the price of 24-karat gold increased by Rs 4,188 to Rs 1,32,710 per 10 grams, compared to Rs 1,28,592 a week ago.
The price of 22-karat gold climbed to Rs 1,21,562 per 10 grams from Rs 1,17,777, while 18-karat gold rose to Rs 99,533 per 10 grams from Rs 96,444. Silver prices outperformed gold, registering a sharper weekly rise. The price of silver surged by Rs 16,970 to Rs 1,95,180 per kilogram, up from Rs 1,78,210 per kilogram a week earlier.
Earlier on Friday, Silver touched the Rs 2 lakh mark to hit an all-time high of Rs 2,013,88 per kilogram on the Multi-Commodity Exchange (MCX) during the intraday trade. The price of the future contract expiring on March 5, 2026, rose over Rs 2,400 during the day before settling at Rs 2,00462, up Rs 1,520 against the previous session’s closing of Rs 1,98,942.
“Gold and silver ETFs have been quiet heroes of the year, delivering standout returns even as equity markets saw bouts of volatility. Silver, especially, stole the spotlight — a rare combination of booming industrial demand from solar, EVs and electronics, alongside tightening global supply, pushed prices sharply higher,” said Nikunj Saraf, CEO, Choice Wealth.
Gold too held its ground and climbed steadily, supported by persistent central-bank buying and investors seeking safety amid geopolitical and inflation worries, he added. The gold future contract expiring on February 5 surged 1.87 per cent to close at Rs 1,34,948 per 10 grams on MCX on Friday. In the retail market, the 24-carat gold price settled at Rs 132,710 per 10 grams, up over Rs 4,600 from the previous day’s closing of Rs 1,28,596 per 10 grams, according to the IBJA.
The rally in domestic bullion prices is largely driven by continued strength in international markets, with both precious metals hovering close to their all-time highs. On the COMEX, gold was trading at $4,328 per ounce, while silver stood at $62 per ounce.
Business
Nifty 50, Nifty Midcap 150 Emerge As Top Indices In November: Report
New Delhi: Nifty 50 and Nifty Midcap 150 emerged as best-performing indices in November, with a growth of 1.87 per cent and 1.59 per cent, respectively, a report said on Saturday. Meanwhile, Nifty 50 outperformed with a return of 7.27 per cent, 5.87 per cent, and 8.59 per cent over the last 3 months, 6 months, and 1-year period, respectively.
At the same time, the Nifty Midcap 150 continued to show steady traction with gains of 7.93 per cent, 6.01 per cent, and 7.12 per cent across the same 3-month, 6-month, and 1-year periods, Motilal Oswal Mutual Fund said in its report.
The broader market also delivered healthy gains, with the Nifty 500 gaining 0.94 per cent in the previous month, with large and midcap stocks up about 1-2 per cent and smallcaps corrected by around 1-3 per cent. Over the last 3 months, 6 months, and 1 year, the index has consecutively given positive returns of 6.55 per cent, 4.96 per cent and 5.94 per cent, the report noted.
The Nifty Smallcap 250 Index showed mixed momentum, declining 3.36 per cent during the month, while recording a moderate 1.37 per cent gain over the past 3 months. However, returns remained subdued over longer periods, with the index slipping 0.60 per cent over 6 months and 5.55 per cent over the 1-year horizon.
The Nifty Microcap 250 Index also reflected volatility, registering a 2.83 per cent decline in November. According to the report, the Nifty Next 50 Index ended the month with a marginal decline of 0.98 per cent but maintained positive momentum over the medium term with gains of 5.16 over 3 months and 3.56 per cent over 6 months, while delivering −2.25 per cent over the 1 year.
Sector performance remained mixed with IT delivering an increase of 4.74 per cent, Auto 3.60 per cent, Banks 3.42 per cent and Healthcare 2.30 per cent in November. The Defence sector delivered the strongest annual performance with an impressive 19.43 per cent return, emerging as the best-performing segment over the year.
The Auto sector followed closely at 18.85 per cent, the Banking sector also posted a healthy 14.79 per cent gain, and Metals also recorded a strong 13.94 per cent. Healthcare generated 6.40 per cent, indicating steady but moderate expansion.
Realty, on the other hand, slipped further by 4.69 per cent in November and 11.47 per cent in the past year. The broader trend shows a 1–4 per cent decline across these segments during November, reflecting sector-specific pressures and profit-taking after earlier rallies, the report highlighted.
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