US President Donald Trump on Tuesday claimed that China is “purposefully” not buying the soybeans from their farmers, and this is the reason they are considering terminating the business with Beijing.Calling China’s deliberate work an “economically hostile act,” Trump said that they can make the cooking oil themselves and don’t need China for that. In a post on Truth Social, Trump said, “I believe that China purposefully not buying our Soybeans, and causing difficulty for our Soybean Farmers, is an Economically Hostile Act. We are considering terminating business with China having to do with Cooking Oil, and other elements of Trade, as retribution. As an example, we can easily produce Cooking Oil ourselves, we don’t need to purchase it from China.”The United States soya bean harvest is under way, and China, once the biggest buyer of American soybeans, hasn’t booked a single purchase, sending prices tumbling and farmers into panic. The abrupt halt mirrors Beijing’s previous use of rare earth exports as leverage in trade wars. Now, it’s soybeans.

Why it matters?

The United States, which exports approximately 61% of the world’s soybeans, has recorded zero purchases from China for the current harvest, a sharp decline from Rs 1.05 lakh crore in purchases last year. This shift is part of an escalating trade dispute, with Beijing leveraging economic measures in response to President Trump’s renewed tariffs. Lu Ting, chief China economist at Nomura Holdings, stated, “US soybeans now are not that important to China. That’s why Beijing can afford to use the import ban as a bargaining tool.” Additionally, the Trump tariffs have increased costs for fertilizer and equipment, thereby reducing farmers’ profit margins. Farmers across the Midwest have begun storing crops, postponing sales, and observing declining futures markets. Morey Hill, a soybean grower from Iowa, told the Wall Street Journal, “There’s no incentive to sell right now.” Hill warned that without a timely agreement with China, the soybean market “might be a bloodbath.” US farmers are currently grappling with higher expenses and a reduction in buyers.

Is it soya war or something else

This isn’t just about soy. This situation mirrors China’s earlier strategy with rare earth minerals, used as leverage in negotiations with the Trump administration over export controls. Now, as the soybean harvest commences, Beijing is repeating this tactic. Lu Ting noted, “Beijing’s new bargaining chip is an import ban on US soybean,” as reported by Bloomberg.While soybeans may not possess the unique qualities of rare earths, they are essential for China’s substantial hog and poultry industries. Escalating trade tensions have led China to increase soybean imports from South America, purchasing 2 million tons from Argentina in September alone. Dean Buchholz, a farmer concluding his final crop this year, expressed his discontent to the Wall Street Journal, saying, “I always thought I would farm till they threw dirt on top of me.” He added, “I can’t make it work to where it would be practical to keep going without me spending a boatload of money and keep putting myself into more debt.” Caleb Ragland, 39, a Kentucky farmer and president of the American Soybean Association, commented, “The frustration is overwhelming.” The timing compounds the issue, as over half of US soybean exports typically occur between October and December, immediately following harvest. China is delaying purchases until February when Brazil’s crop becomes available. Sarah Taber, a crop scientist and blogger from North Carolina, remarked, “We knew what Trump would do. And a lot of farmers just voted for him anyway.” Taber warned that if no agreement is reached by December, US soy exports could miss the entire global buying window.

The Indian rupee fell 13 paise to close at an all-time low of 88.81 against the US dollar on Tuesday, pressured by weak domestic equities and a firm dollar amid global risk-off sentiment, according to market sources.Forex traders said foreign fund outflows amid risk-averse global conditions further dented investor sentiment. However, a drop in crude oil prices and reports of Reserve Bank of India (RBI) intervention supported the local unit and curtailed sharper losses, PTI reported.At the interbank foreign exchange, the rupee opened at 88.73 against the greenback, touched an intraday low of 88.82, and a high of 88.73 before settling at 88.81, down from the previous close of 88.68. On September 30, the rupee had touched 88.80, its previous all-time low.“The rupee… [was] pressured by broad-based dollar strength and weaker regional currencies. Sentiment remains fragile amid US-China trade uncertainty and risk-averse moods. However, the rupee has demonstrated resilience, consolidating in a narrow range over the past two weeks due to central bank intervention and foreign fund inflows. Near-term, spot USD/INR finds support at 88.50 and faces resistance at 89.10,” said Dilip Parmar, Senior Research Analyst, HDFC Securities.The dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six currencies, was trading 0.10 per cent higher at 99.36. Brent crude futures fell 2.15 per cent to USD 61.99 per barrel.Experts noted that US-India trade tariffs remain a concern for investor sentiment. A senior official said a team of Indian officials will visit the US this week for trade talks, with the first tranche of a proposed Bilateral Trade Agreement (BTA) aimed for conclusion between October and November 2025. Five rounds of negotiations have been completed so far.“A weak tone in global crude oil prices and FII inflows may favour the rupee. The US government shutdown and rising odds of a rate cut by the US Federal Reserve may further weigh on the US Dollar. USD/INR spot price is expected to trade in a range of 88.50 to 89,” said Anuj Choudhary, Research Analyst, Currency and Commodities, Mirae Asset ShareKhan, PTI quoted.On the domestic data front, India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation eased to an eight-year low of 1.54 per cent in September from 2.07 per cent in August, falling below the RBI’s 2 per cent target. Wholesale Price Index (WPI) inflation also cooled to 0.13 per cent in September from 0.52 per cent in August.Domestic equities also fell, with the Sensex dropping 297.07 points to 82,029.98 and the Nifty declining 81.85 points to 25,145.50. Foreign Institutional Investors sold equities worth Rs 1,508.53 crore on Tuesday, exchange data showed.

The FTSE 100 posted modest gains on Tuesday, outperforming European and US peers, while weak UK data put sterling under pressure.

The FTSE 100 index closed up 9.90 points, 0.1%, at 9,452.77. The FTSE 250 ended 36.14 points lower, 0.2%, at 22,028.18, and the AIM All-Share dropped 2.91 points, 0.4%, to 789.56.

The UK unemployment rate unexpectedly rose in the three months to August, numbers showed.

According to the Office for National Statistics, the jobless rate was 4.8% in the three months to August, rising from 4.7% in the three months to July.

It had been expected to stay at 4.7%, according to consensus cited by FXStreet.

The ONS said payrolled employees in the UK fell by 93,000 on-year in August alone but did rise by 10,000 on-month.

In the early estimate for September, which the ONS warns is likely to be revised, payrolled employees fell by 100,000 on-year and by 10,000 on-month to 30.3 million.

Annual growth in regular earnings, so excluding bonuses, was 4.7% in the three months to August, easing from 4.8% in the three months to July. The figure landed in line with consensus.

Deutsche Bank’s chief UK economist Sanjay Raja said “one thing is clear, slack continues to build in the labour market”.

“Wage pressures are easing on the back of softening labour market and hiring plans remain stalled,” he added.

“Bottom line, we continue to think that a [fourth quarter 2025] rate cut may be underpriced by markets. We hold on to our view for a December 2025 rate cut.”

Citi said the jobs and wage growth figures add to its conviction that Bank of England meetings in November and December are “live”.

“Inflation data next week will be an important test with an undershoot likely to trigger further repricing towards an additional cut this year,” the broker said.

Elsewhere, a leading policymaker at the Bank of England warned that there is a “rising” risk that the UK economy could see a “more forceful downturn” because of higher borrowing costs.

Alan Taylor, a member of the central bank’s nine-strong Monetary Policy Committee, said there was a small but growing chance that the UK will witness negative growth and “recession dynamics start to kick in”.

He cautioned that it is “increasingly likely” that the UK economy will fall into a “weakened state for a sustained period”, with inflation sliding below target levels.

He said he believes this could lead to “undue damage” to economic activity in the UK.

The pound was quoted lower at 1.3294 US dollars at the time of the London equity market close on Tuesday, compared to 1.3331 US dollars on Monday.

The euro stood at 1.1591 US dollars, higher compared to 1.1569 US dollars. Against the yen, the dollar was trading at 151.83 yen, lower compared to 152.30 yen.

In European equities on Tuesday, the CAC 40 in Paris closed down 0.2%, while the DAX 40 in Frankfurt ended 0.6% lower.

Stocks in New York were down at the time of the London close. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 0.2%, the S&P 500 was 0.5% lower, while the Nasdaq Composite declined 0.9%.

Wall Street’s drop came despite strong third quarter results from investment banks JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs and Citi, which all beat market expectations.

Citi climbed 1.2%, but JPMorgan fell 2.0% and Goldman Sachs dropped 2.8%.

JPMorgan chief executive Jamie Dimon cautioned: “There continues to be a heightened degree of uncertainty stemming from complex geopolitical conditions, tariffs and trade uncertainty, elevated asset prices and the risk of sticky inflation.”

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury was quoted at 4.05%, widened from 4.04% at the time of the London equities close on Monday. The yield on the US 30-year Treasury stood at 4.64%, stretched from 4.62%.

On the FTSE 100, easyJet climbed 8.0% as Italian daily Corriere della Sera reported shipping firm Mediterranean Shipping is among those mulling investing, or taking full control of the budget carrier.

MSC is working in tandem with an investment fund, Corriere said, citing three sources familiar with the matter.

EasyJet is “landing on the desks of several individuals” interested in investing in it, Corriere reported.

Bookmaker Entain climbed 1.8% as its US joint venture BetMGM reported a strong third quarter, with first-half momentum continuing and full-year guidance raised.

Owing to the strong performance full-year net revenue guidance for BetMGM was lifted to at least 2.75 billion US dollars from 2.7 billion US dollars, and Ebitda is now anticipated at approximately 200 million US dollars, from at least 150 million US dollars.

But IMI fell 0.9% as RBC Capital Markets lowered to “sector perform” from “outperform”.

The downgrade reflects “valuation, rather than a fundamental change in our view”, RBC analyst Mark Fielding explained, noting IMI is a “high quality” business.

He pointed out IMI shares are up 26% year-to-date while he also feels the firm cannot avoid some impact from wider end market uncertainties.

On the FTSE 250, Mitie jumped 14% as it upgraded operating profit guidance and launched a new £100 million share buyback, following solid first-half revenue growth and continued progress with the integration of its recent Marlowe acquisition.

Housebuilder Bellway firmed 5.3% after announcing a £150 million share buyback and reporting a 21% increase in annual pre-tax profit as revenue climbed 17%.

But Morgan Advanced Materials dropped 6.6% after its second downbeat trading update in three months, warning of increasing uncertainty in European industrial markets.

Gold traded at 4,141.29 US dollars an ounce on Tuesday, up from 4,093.56 US dollars on Monday. Brent oil traded at 61.87 US dollars a barrel, down from 63.40 US dollars late Monday.

The biggest risers on the FTSE 100 were easyJet, up 37.2p at 501.2p, Persimmon, up 30.0p at 1,199.0p, Berkeley Group, up 94.0p at 4,034.0p, Next, up 250.0p at 12,635.0p and Centrica, up 3.15p at 173.0p.

The biggest fallers on the FTSE 100 were Spirax, down 285.0p at 6,645.0p, Anglo American, down 84.0p at 2,915.0p, Croda, down 76.0p at 2,662.0p, Antofagasta, down 69.0p at 2,758.0p and Weir Group, down 54.0p at 2,794.0p.

Wednesday’s global economic diary has inflation data in China overnight, eurozone industrial production figures and the US Beige Book.

Wednesday’s UK corporate calendar has a trading statement from recruiter PageGroup and bingo and casino operator Rank.

Contributed by Alliance News