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Here’s where the economy is starting to show ‘K-shaped’ bifurcation

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Here’s where the economy is starting to show ‘K-shaped’ bifurcation


Coke beverages are displayed in a 7-eleven convenient store on July 17, 2025 in Austin, Texas.

Brandon Bell | Getty Images

Amid recession fears, a government shutdown and tariff uncertainty, consumers are increasingly diverging in their spending.

Wealthier Americans are engaging their purchasing power, while lower-income Americans are starting to pull back — commonly described as a “K-shaped” economy. Friday’s consumer price index report shed more light on the pressures facing large swaths of the country.

The CPI report, which measures price changes across a range of goods and services, was delayed due to the government shutdown, originally scheduled to be released nine days prior. The report came in cooler-than-expected, showing a 0.3% increase on the month. That put the annual inflation rate at 3% and signals a likely rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week.

A subset of the CPI report also helps determine the Social Security Administration’s cost-of-living adjustment, which the agency said Friday will be 2.8% in 2026.

Lower- and middle-income consumers have been hit hardest by rising costs on daily essentials like groceries and gas. Meanwhile, wealthier investors have benefited from stock market rallies and rising home values. Recent data from JPMorgan’s Cost of Living Survey found that income bracket was a large factor in Americans’ varying views of the current state of the economy.

Here’s where bifurcation is beginning to take hold:

Food and beverage

Coca-Cola, often viewed as a bellwether for the financial health of consumer, has been seeing the divergence across its business.

Pricier products that are more exposed to high-income consumers, like Topo Chico sparkling water and Fairlife protein shakes, are fueling the company’s sales growth, CEO James Quincey told CNBC’s “Squawk on the Street” Tuesday. 

At the same time, Coke is seeing higher demand at both dollar stores that cater to low-income consumers looking for deals and higher-end outlets that skew toward wealthier consumers, like fast-casual restaurants and amusement parks.

McDonald’s CEO Chris Kempczinski told CNBC’s “Squawk Box” in early September that the burger chain’s expansion of its value menu was in response to a divided consumer landscape, or what he called a “two-tier economy.”

While Kempczinski said the company is seeing upper-income consumers performing well, its lower- and middle-income diners are “a different story.”

“Traffic for lower-income consumers is down double digits, and it’s because people are either choosing to skip a meal… or they’re choosing to just eat at home,” he said last month.

A similar dynamic is playing out at Chipotle, according to Chief Financial Officer Adam Rymer.

“There are certain cohorts of the consumer, definitely on the lower-income side, that are feeling pressure right now. That’s something that we’ll have to take into consideration when looking at price going forward,” Rymer told Reuters in July.

On Friday, Procter & Gamble said the company is seeing K-shaped shopping behaviors among its consumers, with wealthier shoppers buying bigger pack sizes from club retailers and lower-income shoppers exhausting their pantry inventory before returning to the stores.

“The consumer environment is not great, but stable,” CFO Andre Schulten said on a call with reporters.

Autos and airfare

Last month, the average price for a new vehicle surpassed $50,000 for the first time ever, according to Cox Automotive’s Kelley Blue Book.

The record pricing comes as auto loan defaults and repossessions are on the rise, particularly for those with FICO scores below 620.

“Today’s auto market is being driven by wealthier households who have access to capital, good loan rates and are propping up the higher end of the market,” said Cox Automotive executive analyst Erin Keating in a statement last week.

And though airlines have been piloting premium offerings for years, the higher-cost tickets have gained momentum in recent months.

Delta Air Lines said earlier this month that revenue from its premium offerings is expected to surpass the coach cabin next year, with CEO Ed Bastian saying he’s not seeing any signs of slowdown in the roomier, more expensive seats.

Hospitality

Still, though there are signs of a “K-shaped” economy, some argue it’s not here to stay.

Hilton CEO Christopher Nassetta told CNBC last month that he’s seeing a bifurcation, but he doesn’t expect that pattern to last much longer, partly because he sees inflation and interest rates decreasing.

“My own belief is that as we look into the fourth quarter and particularly into next year, we’re going to see a very big shift in those dynamics, meaning, I don’t think you’re going to continue to have this bifurcation,” Nassetta said. “That’s not to say I think the high end is going to get worse or bad, I just think the middle and the low end is going to move up.”

On Wednesday, the hotel chain reported a drop in revenue for affordable brands like Hampton by Hilton and Homewood Suites by Hilton.

Meanwhile, Nassetta told investors on an earnings call that revenue from luxury offerings performed exceedingly well and remains a focus for Hilton moving forward.

— CNBC’s Amelia Lucas, Michael Wayland, Alex Harring, Luke Fountain and Leslie Josephs contributed to this report.



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India-Asean ties: Malaysia backs swift trade pact with New Delhi; calls partnership a ‘force for stability’ – The Times of India

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India-Asean ties: Malaysia backs swift trade pact with New Delhi; calls partnership a ‘force for stability’ – The Times of India


File photo: Malaysian PM Anwar Ibrahim and PM Modi

Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim on Sunday said that Asean’s partnership with India continues to be a “force for stability and mutual prosperity”, as both sides push to finalise the Asean–India Trade in Goods Agreement (AITIGA) by the end of this year.Speaking at the India–Asean annual summit in Kuala Lumpur, Anwar said there had been “some real progress” in revising the trade pact, adding that member nations were keen to conclude it soon, according to news agency PTI.The meeting was attended virtually by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who reaffirmed India’s strong commitment to Asean’s central role in the Indo-Pacific region.India is one of the grouping’s key dialogue partners alongside the United States, China, Japan and AustraliaIn his virtual address, PM Modi described the India–Asean Comprehensive Strategic Partnership as an emerging foundation for global stability and development amid current global uncertainties.“Even in this era of uncertainties, the India–Asean Comprehensive Strategic Partnership has continued to make steady progress,” PM Modi said. “Our strong partnership is becoming a solid foundation for global stability and development”, he added.PM Modi reaffirmed New Delhi’s full support for “Asean centrality” and its outlook on the Indo-Pacific, stressing that India and Asean were “companions in the Global South”, bound not just by geography but also by deep historical and cultural ties.Announcing 2026 as the ‘Asean–India Year of Maritime Cooperation’, PM Modi said both sides were expanding their work together in maritime security, humanitarian assistance, and the blue economy. “India has stood firmly with its Asean friends in every crisis,” he noted.The prime minister also highlighted growing collaboration in education, tourism, science and technology, health, green energy and cybersecurity, saying that both sides would continue to preserve shared cultural heritage and strengthen people-to-people connections.PM Modi welcomed Timor-Leste as Asean’s newest member and praised the summit’s theme of “Inclusivity and Sustainability”, saying it was reflected in joint initiatives promoting digital inclusion, food security and resilient supply chains.Asean is among the most influential regional blocs, and India’s partnership with it has deepened steadily over three decades. The relationship began as a sectoral dialogue in 1992, progressed to a full dialogue in 1995, reached the summit level in 2002, and was elevated to a strategic partnership in 2012.The current Comprehensive Strategic Partnership focuses on expanding cooperation in trade, investment, defence and security, areas where both sides have seen steady growth in recent years.PM Modi expressed optimism that the Asean Community Vision 2045 and India’s Viksit Bharat 2047 goals would together shape “a bright future for all of humanity”.“The 21st century is our century — the century of India and Asean. India is committed to working shoulder-to-shoulder with Asean in this direction”, he said.





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Reeves heads into Budget with public finances in challenging state – Streeting

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Reeves heads into Budget with public finances in challenging state – Streeting



The public finances are in a “challenging state”, a senior Cabinet minister has acknowledged amid speculation Rachel Reeves could hit the wealthy with tax hikes in the Budget.

Health Secretary Wes Streeting admitted there were issues with the economy and said households were also feeling the squeeze.

But he insisted there were “green shoots” of economic recovery “but we’re not out of the woods yet”.

The Mail on Sunday reported Ms Reeves is considering a new mansion tax which would hit owners of properties with an annual charge of 1% of the amount by which its value exceeds £2 million, meaning a £10,000-a-year levy for homes worth £3 million.

The Sun on Sunday suggested she was considering a manifesto-busting 2p hike to income tax.

Mr Streeting said he would not be drawn on “wild speculation about the Budget” ahead of Ms Reeves’ statement next month.

He told GB News: “We’re going to wait for the Chancellor to set out her Budget. People can see the public finances are in a challenging state.

“So is the economy, but also so are family finances, so are business finances, we recognise that, we’ve got to get our economy growing again.”

The UK had the fastest economic growth in the G7 in the first quarter of 2025 but the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts suggest the US will outpace Britain across the year.

Mr Streeting said: “There have been some encouraging signs in terms of interest rates and the UK projected to be the fastest-growing economy in the G7, those are all things that are cause for encouragement.

“But we’re not out of the woods yet. The Chancellor has got a challenging job. She’s got lots of considerations to balance and she will set out her choices at the Budget and not before.”

Mr Streeting told Sky News: “I think there are green shoots of recovery in the NHS, in the economy, in our public services, but there is also so much more to do, and we’ve got to attack those challenges with the level of energy and focus that the scale of the challenge demands.”

Ms Reeves is likely to face raising taxes and cutting spending to fill a black hole in the public finances when she delivers her Budget on November 26.

Economists have suggested she will need to find between £20 billion and £50 billion to meet her goal of balancing day-to-day spending with tax receipts in 2029/30, and at least maintaining her current buffer of around £10 billion against that target.

Ms Reeves has hinted the task will be made more challenging by the Office for Budget Responsibility downgrading its assessment of productivity growth.

The historically small buffer Ms Reeves has left herself against her self-imposed fiscal rules means it can be wiped out by relatively minor variations in Budget forecasts, leaving her scrambling for savings or extra tax revenue.

Former Bank of England governor Lord King was critical of the Chancellor’s “back of a fag packet” approach.

He told Sky News’ Sunday Morning with Trevor Phillips: “You don’t solve that problem by just adding another wealth tax to it.”

He suggested if Ms Reeves wanted to look at the tax system she should appoint a panel of experts to take time to examine the issues and “come up with a coherent view”.

But he said: “That doesn’t seem to happen. What happens is the OBR produces just before the Budget, a number, one number, and then they look round for, you know, ideas, almost written on the back of a fag packet about how you can raise an extra few billion or a few billion there.

“That is not a coherent tax strategy. And you could do a great deal by thinking it through first.”



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American Airlines is arriving late to the luxury travel boom. Can it catch up?

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American Airlines is arriving late to the luxury travel boom. Can it catch up?


An American Airlines Airbus A321 taxis at San Diego International Airport as a United Airlines airplane departs on August 24, 2024 in San Diego, California.

Kevin Carter | Getty Images News | Getty Images

FORT WORTH, Texas — American Airlines started pouring customers Champagne Bollinger in its top-tier lounges and cabins this fall. But at headquarters, it’s not time to celebrate — yet.

American has fallen behind large rivals Delta Air Lines and United Airlines in the post-Covid luxury travel boom that has taken Seoul spa vacations and 40th birthday bashes abroad out of the chat and armed millions of consumers with high-end rewards credit cards.

In the first nine months of this year, Delta made $3.8 billion and United made $2.3 billion. American made $12 million. That means that American, which offers more flights than any other airline, according to OAG, accounted for just 2% of the profit the biggest three U.S. carriers generated so far in 2025.

American ranked last in a J.D. Power’s North American airline customer satisfaction ranking this year. The carrier has also been working to undo damage from a failed business-travel sales strategy.

And American, which branded itself the “on-time machine” in the 1980s, in the first half of this year ranked ninth out of 10 airlines for on-time arrivals, according to the Department of Transportation.

The airline is trying to change all of that and uplift its brand after strategy errors, some skittishness about spending, and at times being late to capitalize on industry trends, like travelers’ willingness to pay up to sit in bigger seats, according to current and former executives and industry watchers.

To make that happen, CEO Robert Isom will have to rally American’s more than 130,000 employees around the airline’s plans and win over both customers and investors. American’s stock is down 20% this year through Friday’s close, compared with modest gains posted by Delta and United.

Last week, however, some investors noticed a change within American, whose fourth-quarter profit forecast surpassed Wall Street analysts’ expectations. Shares rose more than 16%, their biggest weekly percentage gain in almost a year.

“You’re going to have a three-month period where you have to be crystal clear on your story,” said Melius Research airline analyst Conor Cunningham, referring to the airline’s leaders.

The bigger changes are going to take time and money.

“American hasn’t been paying attention to the customer for the longest time,” said Henry Harteveldt, founder of the Atmosphere Research Group travel consulting firm. “I believe there is the beginning of a meaningful turnaround … but a large airline like American is not going to be turned around overnight.”

‘Everyone felt it was price and schedule, and that’s it’

American has tasked Heather Garboden — who has worked for more than two decades at American and US Airways, including roles in the cargo and finance departments, and now is chief customer officer — with leading a lot of a nose-to-tail revamp of the nearly century-old airline.

“Fifteen years ago, I don’t think in the industry, there was much of a belief that customer experience … really drove a differentiation between airlines. I think everyone felt it was price and schedule, and that’s it,” she said in an interview. “That has changed, and we understand that.”

American fell behind with both retailing fares and technology compared with large U.S. rivals. At Delta, the most profitable U.S. airline, its executives were early to notice how customers were paying up for pricier first-class seats, precious real estate it and other airlines used to give away to frequent flyers as free upgrades. Now, offering buy-ups is more common among all three, and American is looking for more ways to sell those seats and to make sure its planes have enough of them to offer.

One challenge for American has been that it was last of the big three airlines to complete a mega merger in 2013 when it combined with US Airways, while Delta and United had years-long head starts to get through their integrations and improve their products.

New lounges, coffee and suites

Garboden spent much of her career in the finance departments and said it’s tough to provide that team with the return-on-investment of something like Champagne but that it’s still important.

“Customer experience, it’s not just Champagne. It’s not just a nice seat. It’s not just having the best lounge,” she said. “It’s the whole holistic view of it, and from end to end, [how] we want it to feel.”

Including new aircraft, American expects its capital spending to total $3.8 billion this year, and rise to about $4.5 billion next year, the carrier said Thursday. It said it has nearly $37 billion in total debt, and plans to cut that down by about at least $2 billion before 2028.

One example of how things have changed: American’s management team nearly a decade ago decided to remove seat-back screens from its aircraft, saving money on the equipment (and the fuel-sucking weight they add to the plane) because at the time they said customers would likely use their own mobile phones, tablets or laptop to watch entertainment.

United, some of whose senior leadership team, including its chief executive, Scott Kirby, came from American, has done the opposite and is in the process of adding thousands of screens to narrow-body planes both new and old, including Bluetooth technology for wireless headphones.

American might be changing its tune. “I think of where the technology was a decade ago, and where it can be today, or even a few years from today,” Garboden said. “Hopefully the complexity is less.”

An seatback on an American Airlines Boeing 737.

Leslie Josephs/CNBC

American is working to make its website and app better, with features like a way to toggle between paying for tickets with cash or miles, Garboden said, among other revamps that executives hope will drive sales — and paid upgrades. Another goal: using artificial intelligence and allowing customers to search for vacation themes, such as “best wine tasting in spring” instead of searching for flights between cities, she said.

American is also in the middle of a push to refresh many of its longer-haul premium cabins and announced on Thursday that it will refurbish its Boeing 777-200 aircraft with a new business class, adding to an upgrade, first unveiled three years ago, of its larger Boeing 777-300 jets.

“That is a big deal for us because extending the lives of those and putting those into service really gives us a capital spending holiday in terms of fleet replacement,” Isom said in an earnings call with analysts on Thursday. “So it’s a win-win-win for our customers, for our company and, most certainly, our investors.”

Those plans are made years in advance, and high demand, supply chain problems and long certification wait times have delayed plusher cabins, exasperating airline executives.

On Thursday, American’s first Airbus A321 XLR, a long-range narrow-body plane it plans to fly across the country and, eventually to Europe, touched down at Dallas Fort Worth International Airport. On all three aircraft types, it will do without first class in favor of a larger business class. For flights over the Atlantic it can cost $600 in the back and well over $6,000 up front.

The new suites that feature sliding doors, larger screens and a palette of dark browns, navy blue and tan, started flying this year on some of American’s Boeing 787 Dreamliners, subset P, for “premium.”

American Airlines new business-class suite.

American Airlines

Meanwhile, the union that represents American’s attendants is pushing the carrier add more crew members on board to cater to the larger business-class cabins.

“Staff your airplanes the way a world-class airline should — and deliver a competitive onboard experience in every cabin,” the Association of Professional Flight Attendants, the pilots’ union and unions at the carrier said in a message on Friday that was sent to staff but directed at the carrier, targeting the airline’s underperformance compared with rivals.

American’s updates even have it rethinking beverages throughout the plane. The airline signed a coffee provider deal with Italy’s Lavazza recently, and to test out the brews, it brought airplane water to its headquarters in Fort Worth so staff could evaluate what it would taste like brewed on board. Lavazza made the cut.

The airline on Thursday named Nat Pieper as is chief commercial officer, a nearly three-decade airline veteran who’s worked at Alaska Airlines and Delta and who Isom described as “exactly the kind of leader we want at American.” American fired its former CCO, Vasu Raja, last year after his business-travel strategy backfired and sparked outrage from travel agencies.

There are signs of progress.

“Exiting this year, we expect to have fully recovered the revenue share that was lost by our prior sales and distribution strategy,” Isom said Thursday.

American also just inked a new credit card deal with Citi and last week said it would introduce a new mid-tier card, with a $350 annual fee.

One-time pioneer, new challenges

American Airlines was an industry leader for decades. It was the first to launch a frequent flyer program, AAdvantage. Loyalty programs, which in large part make money from selling frequent flyer miles to banks, have now become the lifeblood of many airlines.

The airline this year announced new measures to improve reliability. One change: five additional minutes of boarding time. An American spokeswoman said that helps avoid bottlenecks and last-minute gate-checked bags, which she said are down 25% since May 1.

The rise of airport lounges

Some of American’s challenges are fairly recent. A federal judge in 2023 blocked American’s regional tie-up with JetBlue Airways, leaving it without a partner in key, wealthy markets like Boston and New York, where United and Delta had made inroads.

United this year scooped up a partnership with JetBlue that allows customers to earn and burn miles on each others airline, but stops short of coordinating schedules or routes. It took effect on Thursday, as American was reporting its third-quarter results.

American dominates its fortress hubs in Dallas and Charlotte, North Carolina, profitable operations, though it has fallen behind in the Northeast. Other companies have looked to the Sun Belt for growth as the population there grew.

United and Delta executives have credited some of their success to having lots of flights in big coastal hubs with affluent travelers, though United has also built up flying in key markets like Denver, Houston and Chicago.

‘Generational lead’

An American Airlines Airbus A321-231 airplane taxis to depart from San Diego International Airport to Dallas at sunset on November 22, 2024 in San Diego, California.

Kevin Carter | Getty Images News | Getty Images

While American has been reluctant to make big investments, United’s CEO Kirby earlier this month told investors that the airline is plowing more than $1 billion a year into improving customer experience.

United recently started flying planes with free Wi-Fi provided by SpaceX’s Starlink, following Delta and JetBlue in making the service complimentary. American plans to roll out complimentary Wi-Fi next year for most of its fleet.

United said such investments take years.

“We have built up a generational lead on this front,” United’s chief commercial officer, Andrew Nocella, said in an interview, adding that new products are coming in the next few years. (He declined to provide details.) “We think it’s substantial, and I don’t want to give an inch of that ground up, no matter what our competitors do to innovate over the next decade.”

Some customers, however, continue to value the convenience American offers them, and have remained loyal.

Todd Bryan, 41, who has Executive Platinum status on American, said he chooses the carrier in large part because it has the most frequencies out of where he lives, in Fayetteville, Arkansas.

The 41-year-old sales account manager who works in the consumer packaged goods industry, said he gets upgraded on most of his flights, but he has noticed that American has been more aggressive about offering buy-ups with cash or miles.

Even though he’s usually at the top of the list, he now considers taking the offer instead of gambling on a free upgrade on personal trips if “it feels cheap enough that I assume someone else would buy it too.”



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