New Delhi: The RBI has raised its projection of India’s GDP growth rate to 6.8 per cent for 2025-26 from 6.5 per cent earlier, as the implementation of several growth-inducing structural reforms, including streamlining of GST, is expected to offset some of the adverse effects of the external headwinds, Reserve Bank Governor Sanjay Malhotra said on Wednesday. 

He pointed out that India’s GDP recorded a robust growth of 7.8 per cent in Q1:2025-26, driven by strong private consumption and fixed investment. On the supply side, growth in gross value added (GVA) at 7.6 per cent was led by a revival in manufacturing and steady expansion in services. Available high-frequency indicators suggest that economic activity continues to remain resilient. Rural demand remains strong, riding on a good monsoon and robust agriculture activity, while urban demand is showing a gradual revival, the RBI Governor added.

“Taking all these factors into account, real GDP growth for 2025-26 is now projected at 6.8 per cent, with Q2 at 7.0 per cent, Q3 at 6.4 per cent, and Q4 at 6.2 per cent,” Malhotra explained. He also said that the global economy has been more resilient than anticipated in 2025, with robust growth in the US and China. 

The outlook, however, remains clouded amidst elevated policy uncertainty. Inflation has remained above their respective targets in some advanced economies, posing fresh challenges for central banks as they navigate the shifting growth-inflation dynamics. Financial markets have been volatile. The US dollar strengthened after the upward revision of US growth numbers for the second quarter, and treasury yields hardened recently, tracking changes in policy rate expectations. Equities have remained buoyant across several advanced and emerging market economies.

The RBI Governor further stated that revenue expenditure of the Union and state governments registered robust growth during the fiscal year so far (April-July). Investment activity, as suggested by healthy growth in construction indicators, i.e., cement production and steel consumption in July-August, is holding up well even though production and import of capital goods witnessed some moderation. Recovery in the manufacturing sector continues while services activity is sustaining its momentum.

Looking ahead, an above normal monsoon, good progress of kharif sowing and adequate reservoir levels have further brightened prospects of agriculture and rural demand. Buoyancy in the services sector, coupled with steady employment conditions, is supportive of demand, which is expected to get a further boost from the rationalisation of goods and services tax (GST) rates. Rising capacity utilisation, conducive financial conditions, and improving domestic demand should continue to facilitate fixed investment, he observed.

However, ongoing tariff and trade policy uncertainties will impact external demand for goods and services. Prolonged geopolitical tensions and volatility in international financial markets caused by risk-off sentiments of investors also pose downside risks to the growth outlook, the RBI Governor added.

The Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) extended its record-breaking rally on Wednesday, surpassing the 166,000-mark as economic and geopolitical developments continued to boost investor confidence.

By 10 am, the PSX benchmark KSE-100 Index had risen by 917.99 points, or 0.55%, reaching an all-time high of 166,411.57 points.

A total of 338 companies were active in trading, with 252 posting gains, 127 recording losses, and 19 remaining unchanged.

Analysts said the sustained upward trend reflects the trade and business community’s growing confidence in the government’s economic policies.

As the government enters a critical phase of negotiations with the IMF, market participants are optimistic that any progress on the review will further strengthen investor confidence.

However, concerns remain over the ongoing review and its potential impact on Pakistan’s fiscal stability, with some analysts warning that meeting the IMF’s targets will be a challenging task.

On Tuesday, the PSX had surged 1,645.90 points, marking a 1% gain and closing at 165,493.59 points.

Trading activity also increased, with 1,349,798,022 shares exchanged on Wednesday compared to 1,285,638,674 shares the previous day, while the total share value stood at Rs 76.77 billion, up from Rs 65.76 billion.

As many as 488 companies transacted their shares in the stock market, out of which 176 recorded gains, 288 sustained losses, whereas 24 remained unchanged.

The three top-trading companies were WorldCall Telecom with 113,573,124 shares at Rs 1.74 per share, Pak Elektron with 110,391,976 shares at Rs 56.68 per share, and Bank of Punjab with 94,026,621 shares at Rs 27.15 per share.

PIA Holding Company LimitedB witnessed a maximum increase of Rs 700.36 per share, closing at Rs 25,984.99, followed by Unilever Pakistan Foods Limited which rose by Rs 319.69 to close at Rs 30,820.00.

On the other hand, Rafhan Maize Products Company Limited recorded a maximum decrease of Rs 515.46 per share to close at Rs 10,283.67, followed by Pakistan Engineering Company Limited which declined by Rs 55.84 to close at Rs 524.52.

Gold price prediction today: Gold and silver prices are poised for a long-term bull run, though there may be short term volatility due to global factors, says Maneesh Sharma, AVP – Commodities & Currencies, Anand Rathi Shares and Stock Brokers. He shares his views and recommendations for gold and silver investors:Gold continued to shine bright at the start of the current week, climbing past $3,800 per oz for the first time ever in Spot markets. The Yellow metal printed yet another all-time high near $3,871 in Spot on Tuesday after spending much of last week consolidating just below the previous all-time high near $3,791. This was due to positive momentum which returned following the release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation report. While the data came in broadly as expected, bets remain elevated that the US Fed might continue easing its rates in the upcoming meeting in October favoring sentiments in Gold & Silver.Meanwhile in the current week the US faces the risk of a government shutdown effective 1st October unless Congress agrees on new funding legislation. Republican leaders in the House pushed a stopgap bill to extend funding through November 21, but Senate Democrats have refused to back it without policy concessions. The dollar had suffered from rising risk of a US government shutdown and falling oil prices since the weekend, with safe haven currencies like yen emerging as the top performer. President Trump had already stated that a shutdown is now likely after little progress on congressional negotiations. In case of a shutdown, a lower Yen may well remain the favourite trade as history shows it lost 1.5% during the 2018-19 shutdown.Finally, focus also remains on US data due later in the week, with the closely monitored JOLTS report due on Tuesday followed by Payrolls on Friday. An upside surprise in US payrolls may bring in volatility in prices, but data might also be delayed due to the risk of shutdown. An extended shutdown may also result in profit booking moves in global equities leading to risk of a near term correction in prices especially in Silver complex.

Gold Price Outlook:

Weekly View: Volatile week ahead for precious metalsBrace for high volatility in bullion prices especially in silver, on a weekly basis as markets witness a data heavy week along with US shutdown risk to persist in the current week. The department of labor had said that the release of economic data, including Non farm payrolls would be suspended if a US shutdown takes place, which could again bring back safe haven appeal in gold on medium term basis.Any major corrective move in global equities in case of US shutdown in near term, needs to be watched out which could limit upside especially in silver prices. This is due the fact that silver had already witnessed a run up of up to 50 % in prices since 21st of April, the day where Gold hit an all time peak, while gold prices are up only 12 – 13 % since then.Again Gold/Silver ratio which has declined to almost 80 levels on Friday (in International Spot markets) from a high of 107 hit on 21st April is now poised to bounce back in near term to 84 – 85 levels indicating Silver may witness more downside moves as compared to Gold in near term.However from a medium to long term perspective, Gold is still poised to continue its bull run as it may test a level $ 3,950 – 4,000 per oz in spot markets by the end of 2025 or by the start of next year. Long term bias in Silver prices also remains positive as a breach of all-time highs in International markets (hit in Apr 2011 around $ 49.60) could be witnessed by the start of next year.(Disclaimer: Recommendations and views on the stock market and other asset classes given by experts are their own. These opinions do not represent the views of The Times of India)