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India-US trade: Exports rebound in November; supply-chain shifts and holiday restocking drive recovery, says GTRI – The Times of India

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India-US trade: Exports rebound in November; supply-chain shifts and holiday restocking drive recovery, says GTRI – The Times of India


India’s exports to the US bounced back in November after two months of dip. The rebound was largely supported by supply-chain adjustments and pre-holiday season inventory restocking, according to the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI). This recovery came despite the US imposing 50 per cent tariffs on Indian goods since August.

‘India Got Out Of The Gates Faster Than Most Nations’, Says US Expert As Trade Deal Talks Nears End

November India-US trade snapshot amid higher tariffs

  • Exports to the US rose 22.61 per cent in November to $6.98 billion, reversing declines seen between May and September.
  • Smartphones (largest export item): Exports fell from $2.29 billion in May to $884.6 million in September, before rising to $1.8 billion.
  • Gems and jewellery: Slumped from $500.2 million in May to $202.8 million in September, then rebounded to $406.2 million.
  • Machinery and mechanical appliances: Declined to $516.8 million in September, before nearly returning to peak levels at $614.6 million in November.
  • Pharmaceuticals: Shipments rose to $669.2 million in November, but remained below May levels.
  • Mineral fuels and oils (tariff-exempt): Fell from $291.5 million in May to $251.5 million in September, before climbing to $274.3 million.

GTRI said the rebound came after a sharp fall in exports earlier in the year, triggered by uncertainty surrounding impending tariff hikes. GTRI Founder Ajay Srivastava said US buyers initially delayed orders and ran down inventories. “Once the higher tariffs became certain, exporters and US buyers began adjusting, absorbing part of the cost, renegotiating prices, and shifting toward less-affected or hard-to-substitute products,” he said.However, the think tank also warned that this recovery might not last. They claimed that it was more about adjusting to tougher tariffs rather than a permanent improvement. The think tank also added that businesses were using short-term strategies to cope with the new trade environment.



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Bitcoin dips below $70,000 amid gold demand and economic worries – SUCH TV

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Bitcoin dips below ,000 amid gold demand and economic worries – SUCH TV



The price of Bitcoin fell below $70,000 on February 5, down 44% from its October 2025 high of $126,210, as investors shift interest to gold and global economic concerns rise.

Earlier in the day, Bitcoin briefly touched $63,000 before closing at $70,000.

Last week alone, its value dropped more than $20,000, reducing it by almost a quarter.

Compared to four months ago, Bitcoin has now lost about half its peak value.

Analysts say investor interest in Bitcoin is waning, with growing pessimism surrounding the broader cryptocurrency market.



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Gold, Silver ETFs Sink Up To 10% As Precious Metals Rout Deepens; What Should Investors Do Now?

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Gold, Silver ETFs Sink Up To 10% As Precious Metals Rout Deepens; What Should Investors Do Now?


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Silver and gold-linked commodity ETFs extended their slide, falling as much as 10%, tracking sharp drop in precious metal futures on the MCX

Silver ETFs

Silver ETFs

Silver and gold-linked commodity ETFs extended their slide on Friday, falling as much as 10%, tracking a sharp drop in precious metal futures on the MCX for the second straight session.

The decline came amid a global sell-off in technology stocks and a strengthening US dollar, which wiped out most of the gains from a brief rebound earlier in the week.

Silver ETFs lead losses

Kotak Silver ETF was the worst hit, tumbling 10%, while HDFC Silver ETF, SBI Silver ETF and Edelweiss Silver ETF declined about 9% each. Bandhan Silver ETF limited losses to around 6%.

Among gold-linked funds, Angel One Gold ETF slipped 8%, while Zerodha Gold ETF fell about 5%.

Volatility persists after steep correction

Hareesh V, Head of Commodity Research at Geojit Investments, said gold and silver continue to witness heightened volatility after last week’s sharp selloff. The correction was driven by hawkish US Federal Reserve expectations following Kevin Warsh’s nomination, a stronger dollar, and steep margin hikes by the CME that forced leveraged positions to unwind. Profit-taking after record highs further amplified price swings, keeping sentiment fragile.

He advised bullion investors to remain patient and avoid reacting to short-term volatility driven by margin hikes, profit booking and policy uncertainty.

“Gradual, staggered accumulation can help manage timing risks, as long-term fundamentals such as geopolitical tensions, central bank demand and currency pressures remain supportive. Closely tracking the US dollar and upcoming Federal Reserve signals is crucial in this phase of elevated volatility,” he said.

MCX futures slide sharply

In Friday’s session, MCX silver futures for March 5 delivery plunged 6%, or ₹14,628, to ₹2,29,187 per kg. Gold futures for April 2 delivery also weakened, slipping ₹2,675, or 2%, to ₹1,49,396 per 10 grams.

Globally, silver remained extremely volatile. Prices rebounded as much as 3% after plunging 10% to below the $65 level, a more than six-week low. Despite the bounce, silver was still down nearly 16% for the week. In the previous week, it had fallen 18%, marking its steepest weekly decline since 2011.

Margin hikes add pressure

The selloff spilled into domestic ETFs after sharp margin hikes in precious metal futures. On Thursday, commodity-based ETFs dropped as much as 21%, led by silver ETFs, while gold ETFs declined up to 7%.

Margins on silver futures were raised by 4.5% and on gold futures by 1% effective February 5, followed by an additional hike of 2.5% on silver and 2% on gold on Friday. As a result, total additional margins now stand at 7% for silver futures and 3% for gold futures from February 6.

“Markets often see sharp corrections after extended rallies. Broader risk sentiment and geopolitical cues can trigger profit booking in commodities, especially where positioning has been crowded,” said Nirpendra Yadav, Senior Commodity Research Analyst at Bonanza.

However, he added that industrial demand for silver remains strong, with a tight global supply environment and persistent deficits supporting prices over the medium to long term. Short-term intraday swings, he said, do not alter the long-term outlook.

Trade deal, macro cues in focus

Ross Maxwell, Global Strategy Operations Lead at VT Markets, said the India–US trade deal could improve risk appetite by easing supply-chain frictions and reducing tariff-linked inflation pressures.

“In this context, gold and silver will balance lower trade tensions against ongoing macro uncertainty. A clearer trade outlook can reduce risk aversion, limiting upside in precious metals,” he said.

Maxwell added that gold remains supported by concerns around inflation, currency stability and geopolitical risks, making it attractive as a strategic hedge rather than a short-term trade. Silver, he noted, also benefits from industrial demand, meaning improved global trade expectations could lend support through stronger manufacturing activity.

“While reduced tariffs may dampen fear-driven buying, both gold and silver are likely to remain structurally firm as long as economic and policy uncertainty persists,” he said.

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RBI holds repo rate steady at 5.25% in February 2026 MPC meeting

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RBI holds repo rate steady at 5.25% in February 2026 MPC meeting


New Delhi: The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has kept the repo rate unchanged at 5.25 PERCENT in its February 2026 monetary policy review, maintaining a neutral policy stance as inflation pressures remain under control and economic growth stays stable.

The decision was announced by RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra after the three-day meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), which began on February 4 and concluded on February 6.

Focus on Inflation and Growth

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The MPC chose to pause after a series of rate cuts over the past year, preferring to evaluate how earlier policy changes are affecting borrowing costs, liquidity, and overall economic activity.

Inflation has remained within the RBI’s comfort range, giving policymakers room to maintain the current rate while monitoring global economic conditions and domestic demand.

The RBI’s monetary policy framework aims to keep inflation close to 4 PERCENT with a tolerance band of 2–6 PERCENT, which continues to guide interest-rate decisions.

Impact on Loans, EMIs, and Markets

Since the repo rate directly influences borrowing costs for banks, the decision to keep rates unchanged means loan EMIs are unlikely to change immediately. However, banks and financial markets will continue to watch RBI signals on liquidity and future rate moves.

The central bank has already reduced rates by about 125 basis points since early 2025, which helped support economic growth while inflation eased.

What Happens Next

Economists believe the RBI may now focus more on policy transmission and liquidity management rather than further rate cuts in the near term.

Governor Malhotra is expected to outline the RBI’s outlook on inflation, growth, and financial stability in the coming quarters during the post-policy press conference.



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