Business
Inflation expected to jump to highest since January last year
Inflation is expected to increase to its highest level for 21 months as more pressure piles on the Chancellor and the Bank of England.
Economists have predicted that Consumer Prices Index (CPI) inflation will have hit 4% in September, when the Office for National Statistics (ONS) reveals its latest data on Wednesday.
It would mark the highest level since January 2024.
Inflation struck 3.8% in July and August amid pressure from rising food prices, as firms highlighted increased tax and labour costs.
Economists at Pantheon Macroeconomics predicted that higher motor fuel and air fare prices would help drive inflation to 4% in September.
It also pointed towards “strong clothes prices” for the month, but indicated this could be offset by “slightly softer” services price inflation.
Economists have also suggested there could be a contribution from increased private school fees.
Some schools were expected to increase fees from the start of the new school year as they staggered higher costs for parents after the Government introduced a 20% VAT rate for private school fees at the start of the year.
September’s predicted jump in inflation could represent a peak in the rising cost of living for UK households.
The Bank of England previously forecast that inflation would peak at around 4% in September before steadily falling.
Pantheon Macroeconomics’ Rob Wood has said he expects inflation to “slow only slightly” in the following months, dipping to 3.8% by the end of the year.
Other economists have been more optimistic, with Investec suggesting it expects the rate to have peaked at 3.9% in September before falling.
Any increase would still highlight a challenging economic backdrop for the Bank of England as it seeks to bring inflation down to its 2% target rate.
On Friday, the Bank’s top economist Huw Pill urged other rate-setters to be “more cautious” about future cuts due to concerns that inflation could stay stubbornly high.
Another rise in inflation could also be a major concern for Chancellor Rachel Reeves, a month ahead of her autumn Budget.
The September inflation rate is typically used to decide the level of increase for many benefits, such as universal credit, tax credits and disability benefits.
This rate is also a key part of the Pension Triple Lock, which is used to decide how much pensions will increase by in the following April.
However, the increase is based on either this inflation rate, average earnings growth between May and July, or 2.5%.
Given earnings growth was confirmed as 4.8%, the inflation rate will only be used if there is a shock acceleration beyond this level.
A rise in inflation in September could result in higher-than-expected spending when the Chancellor is already looking to fill a black hole in the state finances.
However, higher inflation would also contribute to a higher tax take, with the September rate also typically used to calculate some annual tax increases such as for business rates.
Netflix has significantly increased its all-cash offer to acquire Warner Bros Discovery’s studio and streaming business, intensifying an ongoing takeover battle with rival Paramount Skydance.
The revised bid aims to secure Warner Bros’ extensive film and television library, alongside its premium HBO Max streaming service, in a move that could reshape the entertainment landscape.
In December, Netflix agreed to pay $23.25 in cash, $4.50 (£3.35) worth of Netflix stock per share to buy Warner Bros assets.
The deal valued the business at around $82.7bn (£61.5 bn). However, shares in Netflix have dropped by almost 15 per cent since the deal was first announced.
The US-based streaming giant has said it will now offer $27.75 (£20.64) per share in cash to buy the business, which will include Warner Bros’ extensive library of film and TV rights, as well as its HBO Max streaming service.
Analysts have said the new terms are favourable for investors in Warner Bros Discovery.
Despite the improved financial terms, Warner Bros Discovery continues to back Netflix over a competing bid from Paramount Skydance.
The rival studios and media giant had put forward an offer of $30 per share in cash, but crucially, this was for the entire Warner Bros Discovery company, rather than just its studio and streaming divisions, highlighting a key difference in the acquisition strategies.
David Zaslav, president and chief executive of Warner Bros Discovery, expressed his enthusiasm for the impending merger.
He stated: “Today’s revised merger agreement brings us even closer to combining two of the greatest storytelling companies in the world and with it even more people enjoying the entertainment they love to watch the most. By coming together with Netflix, we will combine the stories Warner Bros has told that have captured the world’s attention for more than a century and ensure audiences continue to enjoy them for generations to come.”
Greg Peters, Netflix’s co-chief executive, underscored the strategic and financial benefits of the amended agreement.
He commented: “By amending our agreement today, we are underscoring what we have believed all along: not only does our transaction provide superior stockholder value, it is also fundamentally pro-consumer, pro-innovation, pro-creator and pro-growth. Our revised all-cash agreement demonstrates our commitment to the transaction with Warner Bros and provides WBD stockholders with an accelerated process and the financial certainty of cash consideration, while maintaining our commitment to a healthy balance sheet and our solid investment grade ratings.”
The agreed deal is contingent on Warner Bros Discovery completing a proposed spin-off of its cable channels, which include CNN, TBS, and TNT Sports in the UK.
Kevin PeacheyCost of living correspondent
Getty ImagesUK toy sales have risen for the first time in five years, but sellers are braced for the potential impact of any social media ban for under-16s.
The value of toy sales rose by 6% last year, compared with the previous year, according to research company Circana, bringing some much-needed cheer for a sector that has struggled since the pandemic.
The rebound has been driven by the so-called kidult market – which relates to players over the age of 12, some of whom are influenced by trends on social media.
But experts gathered at the annual Toy Fair in London on Tuesday said that films, video games and playground chat could still help push further growth in 2026.
Cost of living pressures have loomed over families in recent years, although spending on children – particularly at Christmas – has remained a priority for many.
Covid lockdowns brought a boost to the sector when toys and games became central to keeping children and adults entertained at home.
Sales dipped since then, until last year when the number of toys sold rose by 1% compared with 2024, according to Circana.
With kidults spending more, the value of sales rose by 6% – the first increase since 2020, according to Circana. It valued the UK market at £3.9bn last year.
Melissa Symonds, executive director of UK toys at Circana, described last year as a “clear turning point” for the sector.
Cinema, streaming, video game and sport tie-ins – such as Minecraft and Formula 1 – all proved successful.
Symonds said that excluding the unusual circumstances of the pandemic, last year recorded the first organic growth since 2016.
Social media trends
Kidults accounted for 17% of the toy market in 2016, but this had risen to 30% by last year.
Building sets, predominantly Lego, has appealed to adults, but trends amplified on social media have also led to a 12% growth in collectibles across generations. Pokémon, K-Pop Demon Hunters, and Hello Kitty have all proved to be “market-moving trends”, according to Circana.
Symonds said the industry would be considering the impact of the social media ban for under-16s in Australia, and the potential for a similar ban in the UK.
She said manufacturers and retailers may need to reconsider how some of these toys were marketed if bans were brought in more widely.
Kerri Atherton, from the British Toy and Hobby Association – which is hosting its annual trade fair at London’s Olympia, said it was still too early to know what the fallout would be.
She described 2025 as a pivotal moment for the UK toy sector, but said businesses and consumers still faced financial challenges going into 2026.
The governor of the Bank of England has said the central bank has “to be very alert” to the potential impact from heightened geopolitical tensions as President Donald Trump seeks to seize control of Greenland.
Andrew Bailey told MPs at Parliament’s Treasury Committee that the tensions would have consequences for global financial stability.
However, he highlighted that the Bank believes global financial markets have been “more muted” in response to Mr Trump’s plans and his threats to hit opposing countries with tariffs.
Earlier this week, the President said the UK and other countries pushing back would face 10% tariffs on all products from next month, with this to increase to 25% from June 1, until a deal is reached for Washington to purchase Greenland.
On Tuesday, Mr Bailey said: “The level of geopolitical uncertainty and geopolitical issues is a big consideration because they can have financial stability consequences.
“Let me put that in a bit of context in two respects. One, having said that, growth in the world economy was a lot more stable than we thought it would be.
“The second point is about financial markets and is a fairly similar point, that we worry considerably about how markets react to those things.
“Market reactions have actually been more muted than we would have feared and expected.
“Overriding those points, I take neither of those as a point of assurance. We have to be very alert to these things.”
Financial markets have been weaker so far this week as investors and traders digest Mr Trump’s tariff threats, which would cause further trade disruption.
The FTSE 100 Index dropped by around 120 points soon after opening on Tuesday, falling by 1.2% to 10,075 points.
This followed a 0.4% fall on Monday while Germany’s Dax and France’s Cac 40 also slid in value.
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