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Inflation, fiscal strains weigh on PSX | The Express Tribune

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Inflation, fiscal strains weigh on PSX | The Express Tribune


Shares of 340 companies were traded. At the end of the day, 93 stocks closed higher, 233 declined and 14 remained unchanged. PHOTO: FILE


KARACHI:

The Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) witnessed a week of profit-taking and consolidation as investors remained cautious amid rising inflation, widening trade deficit and fiscal shortfalls. The benchmark KSE-100 index closed at 159,593, down 2,039 points, or 1.3% week-on-week (WoW), after recovering some ground on Friday.

On a day-on-day basis, following Friday’s strong rally, the PSX continued its upward trajectory on Monday as the KSE-100 index gained 1,172 points (+0.72%) to close at 162,803.

The market saw a consolidation phase on Tuesday, when the index fluctuated throughout the session, ultimately closing at 161,282, down 1,522 points, or 0.93%.

On Wednesday, the PSX endured a lacklustre session, slipping 1,704 points, or 1.06%, and settling at 159,578. The bourse extended its losing streak on Thursday and dropped another 481 points (-0.3%) to close at 159,097.

After three consecutive bearish sessions, the PSX finally saw some respite on Friday as the KSE-100 ended trading at 159,593 (+496 points, or 0.31%).

Arif Habib Limited (AHL) weekly review noted that the benchmark KSE-100 index continued on a downward trajectory at the start of the week, but bounced back on Friday, recovering some lost ground. The bearish trend was on the back of profit-taking and market consolidation. Consequently, the index closed the week at 159,593, marking a decline of 2,039 points (-1.3% WoW).

Among economic news, AHL mentioned, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for Oct’25 came in at 6.2% year-on-year (YoY) – the highest since Oct’24 – compared to 5.6% in Sept’25.

In the Pakistan Investment Bond (PIB) auction, the government raised Rs785.2 billion against the target of Rs400 billion, with bids totalling Rs1.44 trillion. Cut-off yields rose 14-15 basis points for two to five-year papers, stayed flat for 10 years and fell nine basis points for 15-year bonds, which saw a large allocation of Rs340 billion.

In Oct’25, total cement dispatches increased 7.3% to 4.8 million tons, up from 4.4 million tons in Oct’24, driven by a surge in domestic demand. During 4MFY26, cement dispatches reached 17.3 million tons, depicting a 16.1% YoY growth from 14.9 million tons in 4MFY25.

Urea sales declined 2%, reaching 351k tons in Oct’25, driven by weak farm economics and seasonal impact, while di-ammonium phosphate (DAP) sales shrank 55% YoY to 140k tons due to lower imports and offtake by local producers.

Sales of oil marketing companies (OMCs), excluding furnace oil, rose 2% YoY to 1.47 million tons in October, fuelled by a 4% increase in high-speed diesel demand amid Rabi sowing and curbed smuggling, while motor spirit volumes dipped 2% YoY on higher prices. Cumulatively, 4MFY26 sales grew 8.3% YoY to 5.3 million tons, AHL added.

Syed Danyal Hussain of JS Global noted that stock market activity remained under pressure during the week, with the KSE-100 index closing at 159,593 points (down 1.3% WoW) as sentiment remained subdued due to unstable geopolitical dynamics.

On the economic front, the CPI for Oct’25 was recorded at 6.2%, which remained above market expectations, primarily due to flood-related supply interruptions and border closures with Afghanistan, lifting average inflation for 4MFY26 to 4.73%.

Meanwhile, the trade deficit widened 56% YoY in October to $3.2 billion, pushing the 4MFY26 deficit to $12.6 billion as imports rose to $6.1 billion, the highest monthly level since March 2022, while exports declined 4% YoY, Hussain said.

Conversely, remittances improved to $3.4 billion in Oct’25 (+12% YoY). The power-sector circular debt registered an increase of Rs79 billion in 1QFY26, reaching Rs1.69 trillion. On the fiscal side, the Federal Board of Revenue faced another monthly shortfall of Rs76 billion in Oct’25, which took the cumulative gap to Rs274 billion in 4MFY26, with total collections reaching Rs3.84 trillion, he added.



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Oil nears highest price since start of Iran war

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Oil nears highest price since start of Iran war



The US-Israel Iran war has halted almost all traffic in a key waterway and the price Brent crude has surged.



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Crunch talks between resident doctors and ministers set to continue

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Crunch talks between resident doctors and ministers set to continue



Crunch talks between resident doctors and the Government are set to continue in a bid to avert strike action.

Sir Keir Starmer has given the resident doctors committee of the British Medical Association (BMA) a deadline to reconsider a deal on pay and jobs which includes an offer of thousands of extra NHS training posts.

It is understood the proposal will be removed from the deal if resident doctors in England press ahead with a six-day strike from April 7 in a row over jobs and pay.

Dr Jack Fletcher, chairman of the resident doctors committee of the union, said: “It is wrong for Government to withhold desperately-needed jobs as part of negotiating tactics.

“Anyone who works in the NHS knows that patients need these 4,000 jobs created as soon as possible.

“We made that very clear to Government in our meetings today.

“We are not interested in arbitrary deadlines – we will be looking to get this dispute ended right up to the last minute.

“We believe there is a deal there to be done if Government is willing to withdraw the changes it made at the last minute that reduced the funding for pay rises. Talks continue.”

It comes as senior medics announced they were escalating their disputes with the Government.

Consultants and other senior doctors are to be balloted on industrial action after ministers announced they would be getting a 3.5% pay award.

Simultaneous ballots of consultants and specialist, associate specialist and specialty (SAS) doctors will run from May 11 until July 6.

Addressing resident doctors, Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer wrote in The Times: “The truth is this: no-one benefits from rejecting this deal.

“Resident doctors will be worse off. Instead of improved pay, progression and support, they will receive the standard pay award this year, with none of the reforms that would have strengthened their working lives.”

The deal sets out a minimum of 4,000 new additional specialty posts to be delivered over the next three years.

NHS England boss Sir Jim Mackey confirmed the offer to expand training places will “come off the table” if an agreement is not reached.

The walkout, which is due to run from 7am on April 7 until 6.59am on April 13, will be the 15th round of strikes by resident doctors in England since 2023.

In a letter to health leaders, Mike Prentice, national director for emergency planning at NHS England, wrote: “We expect this round to be challenging as there is a shorter notice period, bank holidays within the notice period and the action itself falling during the Easter holidays.

“This will represent a significant strain on staffing resources to provide safe cover.”



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Iran oil returns: India set to receive first cargo in 5 years, tanker heads to Gujarat – The Times of India

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Iran oil returns: India set to receive first cargo in 5 years, tanker heads to Gujarat – The Times of India


India is set to receive its first shipment of Iranian crude oil since 2019, with a tanker carrying 600,000 barrels of oil en route to Gujarat following a temporary sanctions waiver by the US, according to PTI.Ship-tracking data indicates that the vessel Ping Shun is headed towards Vadinar port, marking a potential revival of Indo-Iran oil trade after nearly five years.“The Indo-Iranian oil trade has flickered back to life. Following the US administration’s decision to grant a 30-day window for Iranian oil “on the water” due to regional conflict, the vessel Ping Shun is now en route to Vadinar (in Gujarat) with 600,000 barrels of crude. This is the first such delivery since May 2019 and comes at a critical time for Indian refiners facing tightening inventories,” said Sumit Ritolia, Lead Research Analyst, Refining and Modelling at Kpler.The development follows Washington’s decision earlier this month to allow a 30-day window for the purchase of Iranian oil already at sea, aimed at easing global oil prices amid the ongoing US-Israel conflict with Iran. The window is set to expire on April 19.While the buyer of the cargo remains unidentified, Vadinar houses a 20 million tonnes per annum refinery operated by Rosneft-backed Nayara Energy and also serves as a landing point for crude supplies to inland refineries such as BPCL’s Bina unit.India’s oil ministry has so far maintained that any decision to resume imports from Iran will depend on techno-commercial viability.Before sanctions were tightened in 2018, India was among the largest buyers of Iranian crude, importing both Iran Light and Iran Heavy grades due to refinery compatibility and favourable pricing terms.Imports ceased in May 2019 after US sanctions were reimposed, with India shifting to alternative suppliers including the Middle East and the US. At its peak, Iranian crude accounted for 11.5 per cent of India’s total imports.India had imported about 518,000 barrels per day (bpd) of Iranian oil in 2018, which declined to 268,000 bpd between January and May 2019 during a sanctions waiver period before dropping to zero thereafter.“The Aframax Ping Shun (IMO 9231901) loaded with Iranian crude oil from Kharg Island in early March has emerged as the first vessel observed signalling a destination of Vadinar, India since May 2019, following sanction reimposition on Iranian oil by the first Trump administration,” Ritolia said.The tanker is estimated to have loaded around 600,000 barrels from Kharg Island around March 4 and is expected to reach Vadinar on April 4.An estimated 95 million barrels of Iranian oil are currently stored on vessels at sea, of which around 51 million barrels could be supplied to India, while the rest may be directed to China and Southeast Asian markets.However, payment mechanisms remain uncertain as Iran continues to be excluded from the SWIFT global banking system, complicating international transactions.Earlier, payments were routed in euros through Turkish banks, but that channel is no longer available following renewed sanctions restrictions.Iran was first disconnected from SWIFT in 2012 due to EU sanctions over its nuclear programme, with further disruptions in 2018 after the US reimposed sanctions, limiting its ability to receive payments and access foreign currency reserves.



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