Sports
Intel on college football’s top 2025 quarterbacks
Among the teams that reached the initial 12-team College Football Playoff, four brought back starting quarterbacks for this fall, and two others saw their QBs transfer but remain in the college game.
Normally, the focus of the sport would be on the returning signal-callers. Players such as Penn State’s Drew Allar, Clemson’s Cade Klubnik, Arizona State’s Sam Leavitt, SMU’s Kevin Jennings and an intriguing group of incumbents in the Big 12, SEC and elsewhere would be generating the most buzz.
But 2025 is different. The quarterback discussion is dominated by a 2024 backup who didn’t attempt a pass in four postseason games and had just 12 pass attempts after his first two career starts. Texas quarterback Arch Manning might be the biggest name in the sport as he prepares for his first season as QB1. The guy with the attention-grabbing name now has the platform to showcase his talents.
After a season in which the Heisman Trophy race came down to two non-quarterbacks — Travis Hunter and Ashton Jeanty — perhaps Manning will meet the outsized expectations. Or will another quarterback — Allar, Klubnik, LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier, South Carolina’s LaNorris Sellers, Miami’s Carson Beck — step forward in the race?
I spoke with coaches and others around the sport to assess several of the more notable quarterbacks. Other than Manning, I focused on quarterbacks with a good amount of game experience, as we’ll see how things play out with freshmen such as Michigan’s Bryce Underwood, Ohio State’s Julian Sayin and Notre Dame’s CJ Carr.
Here’s a conference-by-conference look:
Jump to a conference:
SEC | ACC | Big Ten | Big 12
SEC
Nussmeier’s path through college used to be the norm but has become increasingly rare — a quarterback who waits his turn behind top players, then takes over the starting job when he’s more seasoned, both physically and mentally. Along with Clemson’s Klubnik, Nussmeier received the most consistently strong reviews from opposing coaches.
“Cade and Nussmeier are two studs,” an ACC coach said. “I love both of them.”
Added an SEC coach: “Garrett is a really talented quarterback. He’s obviously going to take a really good step second year as a starter, too.”
Nussmeier is the first LSU quarterback and just the fourth in SEC history to return to his team following a season with at least 4,000 passing yards.
“He’s in the top two or three in the whole country, without question,” said a defensive coordinator set to face Nussmeier this fall. “We’ve got to affect him somehow.”
Sellers grew up admiring Cam Newton and hopes to mimic Newton’s Heisman Trophy-winning breakthrough season of 2010. Like Newton, Sellers has physical gifts that jump out — a 240-pound frame and quickness that makes him difficult to tackle, as Clemson found out in last year’s rivalry loss to the Gamecocks. Sellers rushed for 166 yards and two touchdowns against Clemson, and showcased his dual-threat playmaking ability in games against Texas A&M, Missouri and LSU.
“Sellers really got hot down the stretch,” an SEC coach said. “He’s such a big, imposing, physical kid. Now, can he take the next step in the throw game?”
Other coaches echoed the review on Sellers, whose ability to make head-turning plays is unquestioned. He also showed better accuracy as the season went along, finishing at 65.6% completions.
The key is identifying the right run-pass blend and ultimately being at his best when surveying the field to pass.
“It’s run when you want to, not when you have to,” South Carolina offensive coordinator Mike Shula told ESPN. “We just want him to use [the running ability] as an added layer, icing on the cake. He’s moving toward that, but as he continues to get better on processing mentally and then timing-wise, where he’s trusting himself and the wideouts, that’s when he can really excel.”
Some coaches aren’t quite sold on Sellers.
“I can’t get behind the LaNorris Sellers hype,” an SEC coach said. “He reminds me of Anthony Richardson, and I know Anthony Richardson went fourth overall [in the NFL draft]. Physically, he’s a freak, but is he a great quarterback?”
Mateer has generated a lot of attention from opposing coaches as he makes the jump to Oklahoma from Washington State, alongside offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle. The lightly recruited Texan shined last fall as the Cougars’ starter, leading the FBS in touchdowns responsible for during the regular season (44), and producing the best rushing season for a WSU quarterback — 826 yards, 15 touchdowns — to go with 3,139 passing yards and 29 touchdowns on 64.6% completions.
“He’s a triple threat,” an SEC defensive coordinator said. “He can throw it, he can scramble and they can call runs for him. Those kinds of guys are the ones hard to defend. Very fearless. He’s got all the moxie and the intangibles to go with it.”
Mateer’s intrepid approach jumped out to those who faced him in 2024. But how will he transition to the SEC?
“He’s going to be one of the better quarterbacks in the SEC,” said a coach who faced him in 2024. “If he can stay healthy — because they run him like a running back — they’ll be a much better team. He’s the type of guy who can change your whole culture.”
Mateer’s durability could be the biggest factor in his performance. He’s solidly built at 6-foot-1 and 224 pounds. After setting a WSU record with 178 rushing attempts in 2024 — fifth among quarterbacks and tied for 53rd nationally — Mateer’s workload as a ball carrier will be closely watched.
“He doesn’t look very big,” an SEC defensive coordinator said. “The human body can only take so many hits, and if you’re not a big dude in this league, it’ll take its toll.”
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John Mateer highlights the improvements of Oklahoma’s offense
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Lagway played more than Manning did in 2024, but the two quarterbacks are often paired because of their relative youth and potential. Mississippi State coach Jeff Lebby, who saw both players in 2024 and will face them in consecutive weeks this fall, said of the tandem, “Those are both guys that have got a chance to be elite players, and probably guys that are going to have great control of the offense and their systems.”
After taking over for the injured Graham Mertz, Lagway went 6-1 as Florida’s starter and helped the team to signature wins against Ole Miss and LSU, while capping the season by winning Gator Bowl MVP honors against Tulane. Lagway’s overall arm strength and the variety of throws he makes, especially as a relatively inexperienced quarterback, jump out to coaches.
“He’ll throw off the weirdest platforms,” an SEC coach said. “His feet won’t be in the ground, and the guy still throws at 60 yards. Like, what the f—? It shouldn’t be humanly possible.”
The 6-foot-3, 247-pound Lagway enters the season with some injury concerns, as lingering shoulder issues limited him during the spring, and he sustained a calf injury shortly before training camp.
“With DJ, it’s being able to keep things alive, arm strength, arm angles, all the off-platform things that he can do,” Lebby said. “DJ’s just a great talent.”
Everyone around college football is buzzing about Manning, but coaches understandably are taking a more measured approach toward evaluating a quarterback who hasn’t logged significant snaps. So what do they know about him? He has handled the spotlight well so far, and he brings a new element of athleticism to Texas’ offensive backfield.
“I’ve been watching a lot of his press conferences, and he seems like a pretty level-headed kid,” said a coach who will face Texas this year. “Pretty low-key.”
The coach’s opinion echoes what Texas has seen internally with Manning, with one source there saying, “It’s not lost on him that he’s Arch Manning, that he’s a Manning, what the expectations are. None of that stuff is lost on him. He’s just learned to manage it internally.”
Another of his strengths is movement, which Manning showed last season when he received his most significant playing time against UTSA and Mississippi State. When starting quarterback Quinn Ewers returned from injury, Texas used Manning mostly as a running threat. A Texas source noted that although comparisons will be made to Manning’s uncles, Peyton and Eli, Manning plays more like his namesake, grandfather Archie Manning, who rushed for 2,197 yards in his NFL career, significantly more than Peyton and Eli’s combined total of 1,234 yards.
“He comes from a good bloodline,” an SEC defensive coordinator said. “I know he’ll have all the attributes, the want-to and how to work, all those things.”
Reed opened the 2024 season as Conner Weigman‘s backup but soon became Texas A&M’s starter, displaying impressive dual-threat skills that helped him lead SEC quarterbacks in both rushing yards per game (49.4) and yards per carry (4.7). He had a big performance at Florida and rallied Texas A&M past then-No. 8 LSU with three rushing touchdowns.
The redshirt freshman finished the season with 1,864 passing yards, 15 touchdowns and 6 interceptions. When training camp opened, Reed addressed the perception that he’s a run-first quarterback with limited passing ability, and there’s hope internally that he will display significant growth this fall.
“You’re hoping to see the natural development of him as a leader,” coach Mike Elko told ESPN. “This is his offense now. He’s had the ability to make those connections, to do the leadership things behind the scenes, and then him on the field, it’s him being fully comfortable in the schemes, in the progressions and the passing game. He got a little bit more comfortable, and we got more comfortable, too.”
Reed’s development has been consistent, and Texas A&M’s coaches think he can thrive in throwing the ball to NC State transfer KC Concepcion, among others.
“He threw the ball well,” an SEC defensive coordinator said. “They return a lot, offensive line, him. They had a bunch of receivers transfer out, but I think they did a good job in the portal.”
ACC
Coaches view Klubnik through a similar lens to Nussmeier, with respect for his talent level, experience and development.
The difference is Klubnik will be entering his third season as Clemson’s starter and third under offensive coordinator Garrett Riley. Klubnik has amassed 7,180 career passing yards and 57 career touchdowns, and made significant jumps for both yards (795) and touchdowns (17) from his sophomore to junior season.
“He’s gotten so much better,” an SEC coach said. “When you watch him versus Georgia [in the 2024 opener] to the Texas game, it’s incredible. What makes him dangerous is his ability to tuck the ball and get vertical. … Their best play is quarterback draw.”
Several coaches echoed that observation about Klubnik, who last fall had about the same number of carries as he did in 2023 but saw a nice jump in rushing yards to 463 and had seven rushing touchdowns.
“He’s not just like a pure dropback, that’s not him,” a Power 4 defensive coordinator said. “He’s good at that, but that’s not his strength. It’s when he has to create something, that’s what makes him dangerous.”
Klubnik has established himself as a top college quarterback, but coaches think there’s another step to his game.
“He’s good, but he ain’t Trevor Lawrence,” an ACC coach said. “I don’t think he’s a first-rounder. He’s a good player, but if it’s covered, he’s not throwing it. He doesn’t have the faith to do that.”
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Beck is one of the more fascinating quarterbacks to analyze, and also among the most polarizing for coaches. He had an undeniably great season in 2023, when he completed a blistering 72.4% of his passes for 3,941 yards and 24 touchdowns with Georgia. Without two-time John Mackey Award winner Brock Bowers and others last season, Beck looked shakier, throwing 12 interceptions during a six-game midseason stretch.
He completed at least 69.7% of his passes in four of the first six games but then eclipsed 65% just once the rest of the season. After surgery to repair the ulnar collateral ligament in his right (throwing) elbow, Beck joined Miami for his final college season.
“He always played well against us, and I thought a lot of him,” an SEC defensive coordinator said. “He maybe threw some balls he shouldn’t have, but he was super talented and he has a lot of confidence. It’ll be interesting [at Miami].”
Miami coach Mario Cristobal has been very pleased with Beck since his arrival this winter.
“You start observing practice and you see some of the things that he gets us into in an awesome way, and some of the things he can get us out of,” Cristobal told ESPN. “And then the autocorrect when we don’t have a positive play, the ability to bounce back from that and take ownership for it, even if it’s somebody else’s doing. He’s going to find a way to bring people together.”
Some coaches can’t get past Beck’s midseason struggles in 2024.
“He’s a turnover machine,” an SEC coordinator said. “There might have been some drops, but there might have been some dropped interceptions, too. The guy just throws it to the other team. He makes some good throws, but as a quarterback, that’s tough to overcome. He was just fortunate how good they were on defense.”
Beck averaged 1.62 yards per carry as Georgia’s starter, raising some questions about his mobility. “Beck’s good, but Beck can’t move,” an ACC coach said. But Cristobal has been surprised by how Beck moves around
“He’s athletic, man,” Cristobal said. “He can throw it, he can throw it on the run, he can run it. He’s a big cat. I didn’t realize how big he was until he got here. So there’s a lot of things to be excited about.”
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Carson Beck’s best plays of the season for Georgia
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Jennings is another interesting quarterback to evaluate, as he helped SMU to an unlikely playoff appearance in its first year as an ACC member but fell apart at Penn State in a first-round loss, throwing three interceptions, two of which were returned for Nittany Lions touchdowns. Jennings also was intercepted in an ACC championship game loss to Clemson and threw three picks in an overtime win at Duke.
He completed 65% of his passes for 3,245 yards and 23 touchdowns, and was a solid run threat, especially in the first half of the season.
“He’s unorthodox,” an ACC defensive coordinator said. “When you first watch him, you think, ‘OK, this kid’s not fundamentally sound, and his footwork is bad, and his mechanics aren’t great honestly,’ but then it’s like, dang, he just keeps making accurate throw after accurate throw on the move. He’s so unorthodox, but he’s so effective, and he can run. So I think he’s legit good.”
SMU coach Rhett Lashlee likes what he has seen from Jennings since the Penn State game, both from a physical approach and mentally.
“He’s probably put on 10 or 12 pounds in the offseason, which is great,” Lashlee said. “Just a bustle that helped his frame. And mentally, he’s an unquestioned leader of our team. He’s been awesome. He’s got a lot of confidence. He’ll be him, he’ll be fine.”
Moss had his breakout performance at USC against Louisville in the 2023 Holiday Bowl — 372 passing yards, six touchdowns — and now joins the Cardinals as the latest transfer quarterback under coach Jeff Brohm. He had some good moments with the Trojans, including the 2024 opening win against LSU, but struggled with interceptions and in road games.
A fifth-year senior, Moss follows NFL second-round draft pick Tyler Shough with Brohm, whose creative and aggressive offensive system gives Louisville a chance in every game.
“Miller Moss is good. I liked him, always, out of high school, and then Brohm’s really good,” an ACC coach said. “Miller is in a system that fits him.”
Moss is a smart and skilled quarterback, but some wonder about his ability to improvise.
“He’s a really good system guy,” a Big Ten defensive coordinator said. “Brohm will do really well with him because he’s such a quarterback-friendly coach. Moss is very systematic. If things get off schedule, he struggles. He can’t create with his legs. He doesn’t make a lot of creating-type plays, but if everything’s on schedule, he’s a machine. He’s a robot.”
Brohm told ESPN that Moss, like Shough in coming in from Texas Tech last year, is eager to prove himself. Brohm has tried to put Moss in pressurized situations against the starting defense to improve his decision-making and limit the mistakes that surfaced during the middle part of the 2024 season.
“He’s an intelligent quarterback,” Brohm said. “He can control where he’s throwing it, which not everyone can do. When he’s confident and things happen in rhythm and he knows where to go with the ball, he can produce. It’s the times when things aren’t in rhythm and the timing isn’t quite there and he’s got to adjust and he’s got to make decisions and be a quarterback who can handle a broken play here and there.”
Mensah wasn’t the biggest name on the quarterback transfer market, but his move to Duke — and the reported $8 million deal that came with it — generated significant attention. Duke went all-in to land Mensah, who has three years of eligibility left after an impressive redshirt freshman season at Tulane, where he completed 65.9% of his passes for 22 touchdowns and never had a multi-interception performance.
The Mensah move showed that “Duke is serious about football,” coach Manny Diaz told ESPN, especially coming off three consecutive seasons with eight or more wins. Diaz also liked how Mensah fits with offensive coordinator Jonathan Brewer’s vision. Duke was willing to part ways with quarterback Maalik Murphy, who had a team-record 26 touchdown passes last season.
“He can make the throws similar to what we have to have in our offense, but the mobility is key,” Diaz said. “Not just in terms of QB run game, but the ability to extend plays, make things happen, scramble to throw, scramble to run. Those things, you can already see the difference.”
Some coaches are curious about whether Mensah, who thrived in Tulane’s play-action passing attack, will perform in a Duke offense that has emphasized tempo and quick screens and other passes.
“He’s not a no-brainer,” a Power 4 coach said. “Maalik has a bigger arm than he does.”
“It was a head-scratcher for some that they invested what they did in him,” an ACC defensive coordinator added.
King turns 25 in January and has seen just about everything at the college level. He could be set for his last and best season this fall with Georgia Tech, which is hoping to eclipse seven wins for the first time since 2016 and become an ACC contender. King is among the toughest quarterbacks in the country, having fought through several significant injuries.
He showed much greater accuracy in 2024, throwing only two interceptions in 269 pass attempts and completing an ACC record 72.9% of his passes. King became the first FBS player since at least 1956 to record 2,000 passing yards, 10 touchdown passes, a 70% completion percentage and two or fewer interceptions in a season.
“The sky’s the limit for Haynes,” Georgia Tech offensive coordinator Buster Faulkner told ESPN. “The biggest thing we’ve hammered is: If we can make the routine plays all the time, we’re going to be really tough to handle. It’s continuing to shorten up his stride, shorten up his delivery. He’s a very conscious kid, great football player. We want to hone in the fine details of playing quarterback.”
The challenge for King is staying on the field without overly limiting his aggressive style of play. After recording 737 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns in 2023, King ran for 587 yards and 11 touchdowns last fall.
“Haynes is a tough sucker,” an ACC defensive coordinator said. “Just a great, great player, and a great fit for what they do.”
BIG TEN
Arguably no national championship contender has greater urgency than Penn State, and no quarterback carries a heavier burden than Allar. He looks like a top NFL draft pick at 6-foot-5 and 235 pounds. After two seasons as the starter, he ranks among the top 10 in team history in most statistical categories and in the top five in several, including first in career completion percentage (62.9) and interception percentage (1.19).
The knock on Allar, fair or unfair, is the same as the one against Penn State under coach James Franklin — the inability to win the biggest games. He’s still searching for his first win against Ohio State, Michigan or Oregon, and his struggles against Notre Dame in a CFP semifinal loss left him teary-eyed and determined to rewrite his story.
“He played so poorly against Notre Dame that he just got destroyed the whole offseason, but in some ways that can be good,” a Big Ten defensive coordinator said. “He’s got all the tools. Obviously he’s big, his body looks good. He’s got better receivers around him. The receivers have been so ineffective there.”
The additions of transfer wide receivers Trebor Pena (Syracuse), Devonte Ross (Troy) and Kyron Hudson (USC) should help Allar, who hasn’t seen an 800-yard wide receiver during his time at Penn State. Franklin told ESPN that Allar has “gotten better every single year,” and he should benefit from his best supporting cast.
“Whether it’s his understanding, whether it’s his command, whether it’s his athleticism, he’s made significant jumps,” Franklin said. “The other thing is going out and finding some guys that are going to make some more plays for him.”
New Penn State defensive coordinator Jim Knowles has a distinct perspective on Allar, having faced him the past two seasons at Ohio State, and now seeing him daily in practices.
“I didn’t know him as a person, but he’s got a great work ethic and wants to learn,” Knowles told ESPN. “It’s like when I first got to Ohio State and CJ Stroud was asking me all kinds of questions. You don’t know any of this when you play them, but he’s got those leadership skills and traits, and the team really follows him.”
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Altmyer grew up loving the SEC and began his college career in his favorite conference, but he has made a much bigger impact since leaving Ole Miss for the Big Ten and Illinois, where he enters his third season as the starter. He can go down as an Illini legend, as the team has a realistic chance for its first CFP appearance and consecutive 10-win seasons for the first time.
Despite receiving overtures from Tennessee to transfer, Altmyer is back with Illinois, where he went through some challenges in 2023 and nearly quit after the season, only to return and pass for 2,217 yards with 22 touchdowns and only six interceptions last fall.
“He’s a good player, he’s going to be third year in the system,” a Big Ten defensive coordinator said. “I think he’s a good athlete. He can throw it.”
Last season restored Altmyer’s confidence, and Illinois’ coaches expect him to adjust well to the inevitable ebbs and flows.
“The biggest difference in him is his volume [of play], which is reflected in his confidence, not just for him, but his players around him, and then just the experience,” Illinois coach Bret Bielema told ESPN.
Added Illinois offensive coordinator Barry Lunney Jr.: “You’re going to come up short and make mistakes, but he’s at the point of his career, he’s played enough ball that he knows how to navigate away from those.”
The Hoosiers have given themselves a chance to sustain success, in part because of key portal pickups including Mendoza, who started 19 games at Cal and last season had one of the school’s top 10 passing seasons (3,004 yards, 144.59 rating, 68.7% completions). Although Kurtis Rourke is a big loss, Mendoza brings Power 4 experience and had success despite some trouble spots around him at Cal.
“He’s a big, tall guy, very mobile, and has a quick release with a strong arm, throws the ball well from the pocket and on the move,” Hoosiers coach Curt Cignetti told ESPN. “He’s got a body of work from Cal. He’s got areas to improve and he knows that, but he certainly has a lot of talent. I feel really, really confident in him.”
The 6-foot-5, 225-pound Mendoza had only 191 net rushing yards during two seasons at Cal, but he can scramble to find space to throw. He cut down his interceptions total last fall and improved his completion percentage by 5.7 points. A Big Ten general manager said of Mendoza, “You’re watching a first-round quarterback when you watch that guy throw routes.”
“He’s very similar to the guy they had last year, Rourke,” a Big Ten recruiting director said. “They’re similar builds, they have similar games. They’re both not going to kill you with legs, they’re not going to be able to really drop it into a bucket from that far out. But they have the arm strength, there’s a big frame, they work well within the offense, and they play to their skill set.”
Williams is technically a new starter but gained valuable experience last fall, starting the rivalry game against Oregon and the Sun Bowl against Louisville, where he threw a pick-six on his first pass attempt, then proceeded to complete 26 of 31 attempts for 374 yards and four touchdowns, while adding 48 rushing yards and a score.
He also saw meaningful playing time against UCLA, Iowa and Penn State, and finished the season with 944 passing yards, completing 78.1% of his attempts.
“Starting those last two games was huge for him, and it was great that he played in all the games,” Washington offensive coordinator Jimmie Dougherty told ESPN. “You see those reps have added up. Now he has some experience to draw from, and he’s just getting rid of the ball. He’s making great decisions. And he’s always been a great decision-maker.”
Williams, who followed the coaching staff from Arizona to Washington, has become the “unquestioned leader of the team” this offseason, Dougherty said. While many quarterbacks with Williams’ athleticism lean toward running the ball when the opportunity arises, the redshirt freshman has shown an inclination to remain in the pocket. A Power 4 coordinator said he has some Kyler Murray in his style of play.
“It’s much harder to coach guys the other way, the guys who have relied on their feet most of their careers, to now get them to be comfortable sitting in the pocket and going through a progression,” Dougherty said. “We love the fact that he wants to get rid of the ball and hit his receivers on time, get the ball out of his hand. That’s been the biggest thing that I’ve seen in fall camp is how fast he’s getting rid of the ball now, making good, clean decisions in the pocket.”
Coaches outside of Eugene, Oregon, haven’t seen much of Moore since the 2023 season, which he opened as UCLA’s starter after arriving as the nation’s No. 2 overall recruit. He went through some predictable struggles that fall, and one coach who faced the Bruins said it “looked messy” back then.
But Moore transferred to Oregon and has had more than a year to prepare for the starting job, playing behind Dillon Gabriel last fall and attempting only eight passes in four games.
“I see the arm talent, the ability to operate, very similar to what Bo [Nix] and Dillon had done,” Oregon coach Dan Lanning told ESPN. “He can check plays. He’s probably more similar to Dillon from a pocket presence standpoint, but more similar to Bo in the ability to really put us in really advantageous plays.”
Lanning views Moore more in line with predecessors Gabriel and Nix, but opposing coaches don’t expect him to be nearly as mobile. Gabriel had 25 rushing touchdowns in his final three college seasons (one at Oregon), while Nix rushed for 20 scores during two seasons at Oregon.
“Dante is pro-style,” a Power 4 coach said. “If Dante ran a 40, he’d run a 4.9.”
UCLA made the biggest splash of the spring portal in adding Iamaleava, who helped Tennessee to a CFP appearance last season, his first as the Vols starter. A former top 25 national recruit, Iamaleava grew up not far from UCLA’s campus but went to Tennessee on a then-historic NIL deal.
The 6-foot-6, 215-pound Iamaleava has undeniable physical gifts and a full year as an SEC starter under his belt. But he had only the late spring and summer to connect with his teammates and absorb the offense under new coordinator Tino Sunseri. Iamaleava had 2,930 passing yards and 21 touchdowns at Tennessee, while throwing only five interceptions and adding 435 rushing yards and six scores.
“He’s a true leader and I just love how he approaches the day, how he just approached our players, how he approached coming into the team so late,” Bruins coach DeShaun Foster told ESPN. “It wasn’t just like, ‘I’m Nico’ and this. He wanted to really get in there and work. I wanted to see him in the huddle. I had already seen him in high school and all of that before, so that was good. It was just more, I wanted to see him command, and how is he around the other players? But he’s been great.”
The talent is there with Iamaleava, whose ability to adjust quickly will be tested.
“That’s a kid that is tough as nails,” said a defensive coordinator who will face UCLA this fall. “When he runs, he doesn’t look to slide. He can sling it. With development, he’s going to be one of the top dudes in the country. He’s 6-6, tough to take down, can throw every ball. Needs a little bit more accuracy in the deep ball, but can throw it wherever he needs to put it. His eye progression needs a bit of work, but my guess is with another year, he’s worked through that.”
BIG 12
Leavitt led Arizona State to an unlikely Big 12 title and CFP appearance in his first season as the Sun Devils starter last fall. He displayed a skill set that coach Kenny Dillingham expects will propel him to the NFL, setting a team freshman record with 3,328 yards of total offense, and posting a 21-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio during his final nine games.
His decision-making stood out for a young quarterback, and he didn’t shy away from shot plays, recording eight completions of 50 yards or more, most in the Big 12 and tied for second most in the FBS. Leavitt handled pressure well and was an effective scrambler with 435 yards, second most among FBS quarterbacks.
“The way this guy can make plays with his feet, he’s got great instincts,” said a coach who faced Arizona State in 2024. “He can diagnose. Really an elite player for them. The plays he was able to make on third down and create with his legs, it was all year long and pretty special.”
Arizona State finished 18th nationally in third-down conversion rate, as Leavitt moved the chains both with passes under pressure and scrambles. Leavitt told ESPN his goal this fall is “to get to the point where I feel like me and my coach are at the same spot in how we view the game.”
“All the football stuff, everybody sees, everybody sees the talent,” Dillingham said. “He cares. He’s intelligent, he’s competitive, he has the off-the-field X factors that allow him to achieve that level.”
A Big 12 defensive coordinator added of Leavitt: “If you’re going to say, ‘Who’s your top competitor?’ It’s probably that kid.”
Hoover has started the past season and a half for TCU and last fall set the team single-season passing record with 3,949 yards. He was a chunk-play machine, leading the Big 12 and ranking fifth nationally in completions of 20 yards or longer (61). His performance hasn’t generated much national attention, partly because of the team’s uneven starts.
But Hoover will be in the spotlight right away this fall as TCU opens at North Carolina in a standalone Monday game, the first of the Bill Belichick era with the Tar Heels.
“He’s really talented,” coach Sonny Dykes told ESPN. “He throws the ball as well as any of the guys I’ve coached, and we’ve been lucky to coach some good ones. He’s not as big as some of them, he’s not as fast as others, but just purely throwing the football, he’s really, really good. That can get you in trouble sometimes because he’s like, ‘I can make this throw,’ or he gets bored of checking it down and he wants to challenge himself a little bit more.”
If Hoover balances the wow plays with the mundane ones, he could be among the nation’s best quarterbacks this season.
“He does not take sacks,” a Big 12 defensive coordinator said. “He gets rid of the ball quickly, makes good decisions. I really liked him. He’s tough, good decision-maker, gets the ball out on time.”
When Will Howard transferred from Kansas State to Ohio State, there was a sense within some corners of the Big 12 that the Wildcats would upgrade at quarterback with Johnson. A blazing-fast top 100 recruit from the state, Johnson gave Kansas State a different dimension in the explosive run game. He set a team record with 25 passing touchdowns last fall, while throwing 10 interceptions and adding 605 rushing yards and seven touchdowns.
Johnson’s accuracy and efficiency fell off during the back half of the season, but he entered this fall with higher expectations as a passer. He accounted for all three touchdowns — two passing, one rushing — in Saturday’s season-opening loss to Iowa State in Ireland, completing 21 of 30 attempts for 271 yards with no interceptions.
“It’s just not trying to do so much,” Johnson told ESPN. “Getting the ball to playmakers, letting guys do their things with the ball, not trying to force things, taking checkdowns and then whenever you do get big-play opportunities, you’ve got to connect on them.”
Coaches see Johnson’s throwing ability but say he still must master the nuances of the passing game.
“Extremely athletic,” said a coach who faced Kansas State last year. “As a freshman, he still needed so much more polish, and then the ability to sit in the pocket and go through reads. Looks like he’s still needing some of that.”
Anyone who watched Iowa State’s Week 0 win against Kansas State in Ireland got to see the essence of Becht, who is in his third year as the starter. He had some early struggles on a slick field and would end up completing only half of his passes (14 of 28). But Becht avoided an interception and accounted for all three ISU touchdowns — two passing, one rushing — and the game-clinching pass to Carson Hansen on fourth-and-3.
Becht’s resolve to make winning plays might be his best trait.
“He is a really good quarterback, and he’s got escapeability, he’s got an incredible feel for the game of football, he can use his feet to make the special play,” ISU coach Matt Campbell told ESPN. “But I think one of the things that makes him really special is that locker room. Boy, they believe in him, maybe as good as any football player that I’ve coached.”
Campbell added of Becht’s best on-field trait: “He’s never pressed to make the wild plays, always makes the right decision on every play. Can he keep doing that at an elite level?”
Becht’s numbers are solid but not league-leading. He was 10th in the Big 12 in completion percentage last season (59.2) and fifth in passing yards per game. But he has a lot of respect around the conference.
“I’m always impressed with what he does for Iowa State,” a Big 12 coach said. “He’s so consistent and steady. He’s kind of like [Brock] Purdy was for them. He just wins games.”
Added a Big 12 defensive coordinator: “I have so much respect for that kid. Tough kid.”
0:37
Rocco Becht dives into the end zone for a Cyclones TD
Rocco Becht scrambles his way into the end zone to put the Cyclones up 24-14.
After being recruited to Mississippi State by the late Mike Leach, Robertson transferred to Baylor and started four games in 2023 with shaky results. He then became Baylor’s QB1 in Week 3 last season and looked very much like the top-60 national recruit he was coming out of Lubbock, Texas. Robertson eclipsed 3,000 passing yards while throwing 28 touchdowns and only nine interceptions.
Despite only 14 starts at Baylor, Robertson ranks among the top eight in team history for categories like passing efficiency (fifth, 144.4), yards per pass attempt (sixth, 8.113) and completion percentage (eighth 60.8). He also has played in three offensive schemes with Leach and Baylor offensive coordinator Jeff Grimes and Jake Spavital.
“I’ve developed a lot as a quarterback,” Robertson said. “I learned a lot from Leach, mentally, how you approach the game, all that stuff, and getting to play for Grimes, pro-style, under center, getting reps at that were great for me. And then now playing for Spav, he’s such a good mental leader. … It’s not something I had on my bingo card playing for three different offensive coordinators, but I think it’s just helping me develop.”
Big 12 coaches are mixed on Robertson, as one said he’s “not as dynamic as the others” in the league’s top QB group. But his strong finish to the 2024 season, plus some long-awaited continuity under the same playcaller, should help his development.
“Just the variations of coverages and blitzes and stuff like that, I thought he handled it well,” a Big 12 defensive coordinator said. “He played pretty comfortably, so they’ve got a chance to be pretty good.”
Daniels is certainly a familiar name around the Big 12 after starting games in each of the past five seasons. He has been a big-play juggernaut when healthy but lost most of the 2023 season to injury and portions of others. Daniels finally made it through a season last fall and had solid passing (2,454) and rushing (439) yards totals, but his accuracy fluttered and he and the team didn’t really surge until later in the season.
He’s back for a sixth year, playing in an offense directed by longtime KU quarterbacks coach Jim Zebrowski. Daniels was near-flawless in Saturday’s season opener against Fresno State, completing 18 of 20 passes for 176 yards and 3 touchdowns, while adding 47 rushing yards.
“I really like the Kansas guy, he’s probably my favorite in the league,” a Big 12 coach said. “When push comes to shove, that guy knows how to just stay calm and make stuff happen.”
Other coaches need to see more consistency from Daniels, especially after last season.
“The Kansas kid is hit and miss,” a Big 12 defensive coordinator said. “He’s kind of hot and cold, but he’s a heck of an athlete.”
The Big 12 is heavy on returning starters, but the most intriguing quarterback transfer in the league arrives at Utah, where quarterback play cratered the past two seasons largely because of Cam Rising’s injuries. Utah went the package-deal route to repair the offense, plucking both Dampier and offensive coordinator Jason Beck from New Mexico, where they averaged 6.9 yards per play and finished No. 24 nationally in scoring on a shaky team.
Dampier earned first-team All-Mountain West honors in 2024 after finishing second in the league in passing yards (3,934) and third in rushing yards (1,116), while leading the league in yards per carry (7.5) and finishing second — behind Heisman Trophy runner-up Ashton Jeanty — with 19 rushing touchdowns. Although Rising had some mobility when healthy, Dampier will bring a dramatically different element to the offense.
“Having him here in spring was huge for us,” coach Kyle Whittingham told ESPN. “He was like another coach on the field because obviously he knows Jason’s offense inside and out. So being able to install a new offense with a new coordinator, with a quarterback who knows it, that’s a big advantage for us. He’s been a huge help for his teammates.”
The challenge for Dampier and Beck is how much to run the 5-foot-11, 210-pound junior, who had 15 or more carries in half of New Mexico’s games last season.
“With a running quarterback, you’ve got to stay healthy,” a Big 12 defensive coordinator said.
Another coach in the league added: “He’s going to see a different kind of athlete in the Big 12, and he was used to in the Mountain West. It’s hard to stay healthy when you’re playing like that.”
GRIMSBY: Manchester United plumbed new depths as fourth-tier Grimsby Town knocked them out of the League Cup 12-11 on penalties after a 2-2 draw on a tumultuous night at Blundell Park on Wednesday.
Goals by Charles Vernam and former Manchester United youth player Tyrell Warren put the hosts in charge by half-time against the six-time winners of the competition.
But after thunder and lightning and a torrential rain squall, United finally came to their senses with Bryan Mbeumo’s first goal for his new club offering them an escape route.
Grimsby defended their lead valiantly but Harry Maguire’s 89th-minute header sent the tie to penalties.
A nerve-shredding shootout that lasted 18 minutes saw Matheus Cunha have his effort saved when he had the chance to seal it for United. Then Mbeumo saw his effort strike the crossbar to send the home fans into delirium.
Manchester City striker Erling Haaland has changed the name on the back of his Norway shirt.
The 25-year-old will now include his full surname to read “Braut Haaland.”
Norway face Finland in a friendly a week on Thursday before they host Moldova in a World Cup qualifier on Sept. 9.
– Arsenal or Chelsea to win Premier League? Week 2 overreactions
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– Striker domino effect: How Liverpool, Chelsea, Man Utd net out
Norway are in Group I alongside Israel, Italy, Estonia and Maldova.
Haaland has made a positive start to the season so far, with a brace against Wolves on the opening day of the Premier League season.
The forward, who has 42 goals in 43 gamed for Norway, will be hoping to guide his country to the World Cup, having never played at a major international tournament in his career.
Sports
Graziano: Don’t be surprised if these 32 things happen, from an MVP run to rookies who could star
We are back for our annual edition of preseason surprise predictions — one for each of the 32 NFL teams ahead of the 2025 season.
It’s an odd concept, of course, because if we could predict these things then they shouldn’t really be surprises. But the idea is to collect some of the information I’ve been gathering around the league throughout training camp and present a potential surprise that may or may not have been on your radar as a fan. We hit potential stat leaders, under-the-radar teams, award candidates, sleeper players to watch and position groups that might look better (or worse) than expected.
As always, I recognize that some of these might be more surprising than others, and that those of you who follow a specific team closely might not be as surprised as those who don’t follow said team that closely. But we’re here for all the people, and we hope you enjoy it. Let’s begin in the NFC East.
Jump to a team:
ARI | ATL | BAL | BUF | CAR | CHI | CIN
CLE | DAL | DEN | DET | GB | HOU | IND
JAX | KC | LAC | LAR | LV | MIA | MIN
NE | NO | NYG | NYJ | PHI | PIT | SF
SEA | TB | TEN | WSH
NFC EAST
Don’t be surprised if … the Cowboys call edge rusher Micah Parsons‘ bluff.
What I’m hearing: Parsons continues to sit out practices as he awaits a contract extension, but this situation has gone sideways. Team owner and GM Jerry Jones believes he and Parsons agreed on the parameters of a deal back in the spring and that the deal changed materially once Parsons got his agent involved. Parsons, meanwhile, believes it’s Jones who is to blame — that the owner should have always anticipated that he’d be dealing with the agent. Parsons has demanded a trade and refused to participate in practice or preseason games.
The Cowboys’ season begins a week from Thursday in Philadelphia, and as the days dwindle, it looks less likely that Parsons will show up and play. Don’t expect a last-minute Hail Mary like the deal Dallas did with QB Dak Prescott on the morning of last season’s opener. Prescott was practicing, and the two sides had been talking. This thing seems a lot more frosty, and Jones appears dug in. Unless Parsons relents and instructs his agent to get a deal done even if it’s on the team’s terms, it’s hard to imagine him getting his extension before the season starts. So then Parsons has a choice to make: play on his current contract or not, with the Cowboys openly holding the threat of a 2026 franchise tag over him.
Don’t be surprised if … the Giants lead the league in sacks.
What I’m hearing: Word out of Giants camp is Abdul Carter is everything the team believed him to be when it made him the third pick in this year’s draft. Adding Carter to a defensive front that already features Brian Burns, Dexter Lawrence II and Kayvon Thibodeaux should give the Giants one of the more fearsome and tireless pass rushes in the entire NFL.
There are a ton of questions on the offensive side of the ball, even beyond the one about when Russell Wilson will have to pass the starting QB job over to rookie Jaxson Dart. But the defense up front should be the team’s strength, and it could be enough to propel the Giants to a few surprise wins against their tough-looking schedule — especially if they can generate turnovers and give the offense some short fields. New York tied for eighth in sacks last season with 45.
Don’t be surprised if … they keep tinkering with the defense.
What I’m hearing: The reigning Super Bowl champs lost five key contributors from last season’s defense and are working to replace them with younger players they’ve drafted in recent years, anticipating the roster turnover. They’re excited about guys like Moro Ojomo and Jalyx Hunt. They’re extremely fired up about rookie first-round pick Jihaad Campbell. And with two-thirds of their salary cap committed to the offense, they will need production from young players on the defensive side of the ball.
But not every development timetable goes as planned, and asking younger players to take on larger roles brings some risk. This Eagles group has no interest in stopping at one Super Bowl title. They’re thinking dynasty thoughts. We’ve already seen GM Howie Roseman make multiple trades this month, including one that brought in cornerback Jakorian Bennett from the Raiders to address a potentially thin area of the defense. Roseman won’t sit on his hands if more questions rise.
Don’t be surprised if … Deebo Samuel gets some work at running back.
What I’m hearing: I don’t think it’ll be exactly like it was in San Francisco in 2021, when Samuel was getting six, seven carries per game and occasionally even serving as the team’s primary running back. But Washington’s coaches believe Samuel can be a factor when lined up in the backfield, and they’ll be looking for ways to get him touches. Remember that Wes Welker, who is on the Commanders’ staff as a personnel analyst, was the 49ers’ wide receivers coach for the first three years of Samuel’s career and has a strong relationship with him — and a pretty good idea of how to get the best out of him.
Over six seasons, Samuel has 202 rushes for 1,143 yards and 20 TDs.
NFC NORTH
Don’t be surprised if … rookie tight end Colston Loveland is a huge part of the Bears’ offense.
What I’m hearing: The Bears selected Loveland 10th in this year’s draft, so he’s not any kind of sleeper. But he took a while to get up to speed this offseason because he was recovering from an injury, and for that reason, some might have wondered if it’d take some time for him to work his way into the offense.
I don’t think it will. Loveland is the guy whose name comes up every time I ask somebody about Bears camp. He’s quarterback-friendly. He’s big and fast. He’s polished in his route running. He was healthy to start training camp, so he advanced quickly once August got going. And his connection with quarterback Caleb Williams is said to already be outstanding. The Bears have a lot of very good pass catchers, with DJ Moore, Rome Odunze, Cole Kmet and Luther Burden III. But as Williams continues his development under new coach Ben Johnson, he could lean on Loveland a lot — especially early.
1:22
Yates: Loveland is ‘late-round flier’ TE option in fantasy
Field Yates breaks down what Bears rookie Colston Loveland offers fantasy managers in need of a tight end.
Don’t be surprised if … Jahmyr Gibbs is the top-scoring fantasy running back.
What I’m hearing: Yeah, not exactly the boldest prediction, considering Gibbs was second in fantasy points per game last season and actually scored the most points total because Saquon Barkley sat out Week 18. But a lot of people credit that to a furious finish, which coincided with David Montgomery‘s absence from the lineup.
Yes, Montgomery is back healthy, which portends a return to the two-headed running back operation that Detroit favors. But the Lions believe Gibbs has another gear to reach. They think an improved Jameson Williams will open up the field for shorter passes to the backs. And if they have a weakness, it’s on the interior of their offensive line, where center Frank Ragnow retired. That could make the Lions less likely to rely on Montgomery between the tackles and more likely to get creative with Gibbs in space.
Don’t be surprised if … quarterback Jordan Love is an MVP finalist.
What I’m hearing: It sounds like Love will be fully healthy and ready to go for Week 1, even after having a procedure a couple of weeks ago to treat an injury to the thumb of his non-throwing hand. Remember that Love injured his knee in last season’s opener against the Eagles in Brazil and took a while to get back to full health.
Remember also that the Packers had the youngest roster in the league last season and still finished in the top five in defensive EPA and defensive efficiency in the first year of a new defensive system. They drafted Matthew Golden in the first round to add a potential true No. 1 WR to Love’s already deep wide receiver corps. They also have depth at tight end, an impact running back in Josh Jacobs and a strong offensive line. And of their seven losses last season, six came to the Lions, Vikings and Eagles — the top three teams in the NFC.
If the Packers can improve their performance against the league’s top contenders and Love can stay healthy, they are set up to win a lot of games this season. And if they do that, their quarterback is going to be a top MVP candidate.
Don’t be surprised if … Jordan Mason leads the team in rushing.
What I’m hearing: The Vikings love Aaron Jones Sr. If you’ve ever talked to Jones, you know why. He is a great player and a great guy to have in your locker room. But he’s also 30 years old and coming off a 322-touch season.
The Vikings traded for Mason, the former 49ers back who they believe adds an explosive element to their run game. So far, they’ve been thrilled with Mason’s play, and they envision a pretty even split in running back duties this season between him and Jones. But during some Christian McCaffrey absences in San Francisco, Mason did show the ability to function as more than just part of a tandem. He ran for 789 yards on 153 carries last season. So it’s not hard to picture a scenario in which the Vikings decide to lean more on him as the season goes along. Again, nothing against Jones — this could just be the natural evolution of things in Minnesota.
NFC SOUTH
Don’t be surprised if … tight end Kyle Pitts Sr. ends up getting traded.
What I’m hearing: Part of this is what I’m seeing — or rather not seeing. Pitts is in the final year of his contract, playing for $10.878 million on the fifth-year option from his rookie deal. The Falcons have made no move to extend him beyond this season. The fourth pick of the 2021 draft has averaged 49 catches per season and caught a total of 10 touchdown passes in his four-year career while struggling to consistently stay healthy.
When No. 2 receiver Darnell Mooney went down with an injury early in training camp, there was a lot of talk about Atlanta filling that void by playing two-tight end sets and basically using Pitts as a receiver. And the Falcons absolutely might still try that. But there are definitely signs that they don’t view Pitts as a great fit for what they’re trying to do on offense. Mooney’s training camp absence gave some of the younger receivers on the roster a chance to show what they can do, and if one or more of them has emerged as a reliable contributor by the time the trade deadline rolls around, don’t be shocked if Pitts is on the move.
Don’t be surprised if … quarterback Bryce Young is in line for a contract extension next spring.
What I’m hearing: The Panthers believe the improvement Young showed toward the end of last season will carry over into 2025 — not just because of the way he performed on the field but also because of how comfortable he got in his role as starting quarterback. Coaches feel like Young has turned a corner in terms of his confidence and outward competitiveness. And now Carolina added wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan in the first round of this year’s draft to a receiver room that already included last year’s first-round pick Xavier Legette and veteran Adam Thielen.
The Panthers might have a long way to go before being competitive (though maybe not, if their offseason improvements on defense have a lot of instant impact). But they think they have Young on the right track after a disappointing rookie year in 2023 and a rough start to 2024 that saw him benched for veteran Andy Dalton.
Don’t be surprised if … Spencer Rattler gets a pretty long run as starting quarterback.
What I’m hearing: The Saints announced Rattler as their starting QB on Tuesday. He beat out rookie Tyler Shough in a very close training camp competition. Shough was the 40th pick in the draft and turns 26 next month, so it’s reasonable to think they want him to play soon. But Rattler has already surpassed expectations by beating out Shough, and if he performs in the regular season the way he did throughout camp, he could hold on to the job longer than many expect.
Rattler had fans in the Saints’ building last season who felt he had more room to grow. Shough will get his chance, and if the Saints start losing a lot of games, maybe they go to him just for the sake of change. But Rattler has the job for now, and I don’t get the sense that it’s a short leash.
Don’t be surprised if … rookie Emeka Egbuka is the Bucs’ leading receiver.
What I’m hearing: The team has been absolutely raving about first-round pick Egbuka throughout the summer, praising him as hyper-advanced for a rookie in all facets of his game. Chris Godwin, who is working his way back from a major season-ending ankle injury, is on a very uncertain timetable for returning to the field and an even more uncertain one for returning to his old self. Veteran Mike Evans‘ next sub-1,000-yard season will be his first, but he is 32 and missed three games last season. And Jalen McMillan, last year’s rookie standout who caught seven touchdown passes in the final five games of the season, will miss the start of 2025 because of a neck injury.
If he’s everything we’re being told he is, Egbuka can play any of the wide receiver spots in the Tampa Bay offense, already has the trust of quarterback Baker Mayfield and appears in line for a massive share of the target opportunity on one of the league’s best offenses.
NFC WEST
Don’t be surprised if … tight end Trey McBride is the Cardinals’ leading receiver again.
What I’m hearing: Sure, the Cards drafted wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. with the fourth pick in 2024. And yes, everything we’ve heard out of Arizona this offseason has indicated Harrison is improving on his connection with quarterback Kyler Murray and should be a bigger part of the offense than he was as a rookie. But that still doesn’t mean he’ll be the biggest part of it.
Offensive coordinator Drew Petzing’s system is built to feature McBride as its top target, and all indications are that the Cardinals see no reason for that to change. McBride is an exceptional player who has been a reliable performer for Murray every time they’ve been on the field together. And yes, fantasy football managers, I think you can expect his touchdown numbers to climb. McBride had 111 catches for 1,146 yards last season, but he scored just two TDs.
Don’t be surprised if … quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo has to start at some point.
What I’m hearing: The Rams believe starting QB Matthew Stafford is on track to be healthy and start Week 1 after struggling throughout camp with a back injury that stubbornly refused to follow his or the team’s recovery timetable. But Stafford is 37 years old and has dealt with back issues in the past. (To his credit, he has found ways to play through them.) My understanding is that this isn’t something the Rams expect to sideline Stafford for a long period of time or affect his play early in the season, but that it is something that will need to be monitored and managed throughout the season.
That means there could come a week when Stafford feels he can’t play through it. And that’s where you could see backup Garoppolo — who started one game last season — having to step in and keep things humming. Again, I expect Stafford to tough this out and make it through the season; this Rams team has him convinced he can win another Super Bowl before he’s done. But it might not always be the smoothest process.
1:02
Why Orlovsky isn’t overly concerned about the Rams
Dan Orlovsky outlines why Matthew Stafford’s back injury isn’t impacting his expectations for the Rams.
Don’t be surprised if … the 49ers end up back in the Super Bowl.
What I’m hearing: Good things! I don’t understand why so many people are sleeping on the 49ers, who were in the Super Bowl two seasons ago and saw their 2024 season completely disintegrate because of injuries. They lost some guys this offseason, sure, but they still have Christian McCaffrey, Trent Williams, George Kittle, Nick Bosa, Fred Warner … I could go on, but you get the idea. A lot of talent.
At this stage of their careers, McCaffrey and Williams in particular have to be considered injury risks, but if they stay healthy, there’s no reason this can’t be an elite offense for quarterback Brock Purdy. Ricky Pearsall, the team’s 2024 first-round pick who was recovering from a gunshot wound at the start of last season, appears poised to take on a leading role while Jauan Jennings figures out his calf/contract situation and Brandon Aiyuk works his way back from a knee injury.
This team has a good chance to bounce all the way back to being one of the best — if not the best — in the NFC, especially against a schedule that includes just four games against teams that made last season’s playoffs.
Don’t be surprised if … their defense keeps them in the playoff race.
What I’m hearing: The Seahawks ranked in the top 10 in defensive efficiency and defensive EPA last year in Mike Macdonald’s first season as their coach, but they still finished in the middle of the pack in yards allowed and points allowed. In their second year in Macdonald’s system, they should be dominant. His defense has worked everywhere he has been, including the Ravens and the University of Michigan. His ability to scheme up pressures is as good as anyone’s. It takes time to learn a new scheme, but after playing in it for a year, Seattle’s defensive players are primed for a massive season on that side of the ball.
AFC EAST
Don’t be surprised if … the Bills make a trade or two to improve their defense.
What I’m hearing: Buffalo feels great about its offense, which outscored every team in the NFL last year except the Lions. But it’s still putting things together on the defensive side of the ball, where the Bills finished in the bottom half of the league last season with 5.5 yards allowed per play. The safety position has been a particularly thorny question mark, especially considering how important that position is in coach Sean McDermott’s defense.
McDermott and defensive coordinator Bobby Babich have done an excellent job in recent years of making in-season adjustments and bringing that group together. But don’t be shocked if the front office looks to help them out here in the coming weeks or months with a strategic addition or two.
Don’t be surprised if … the Dolphins are actually a wild-card contender.
What I’m hearing: All of the vibes are bad, I get it. The Tua Tagovailoa–Tyreek Hill thing. A cornerback getting hurt seemingly every other day. The fact that the Mike McDaniel magic dust seemed to all blow away last season in Year 3. McDaniel is the most popular name on all of the preseason hot seat lists, and expectations for the Dolphins could not be lower.
But I don’t know. I hate just saying the same thing everyone else is saying, and a visit to their training camp last month got me thinking it might not be as terrible as folks are saying. The Dolphins started 2-6 last season but rebounded to win six of their next eight and ultimately end the season 8-9. We’ve seen teams fold up in those situations, and this one did not. McDaniel and the front office used that experience to identify the strong culture guys, move on from most of those who weren’t and bring in outside veterans with strong leadership reputations.
A ton rests on the Dolphins’ ability to keep Tagovailoa healthy; literally everyone you talk to in that building mentions it. And the popular outside opinion is that they didn’t invest enough in the offensive line this offseason. But McDaniel was 20-14 in his first two seasons in Miami and made the playoffs both times. There’s a chance — a chance — he might be able to get the Dolphins back to where they were in 2022 and 2023. I know I’m out on a limb here, but sometimes you’ve got to go out on a limb.
Don’t be surprised if … rookie TreVeyon Henderson is the team’s No. 1 running back all season.
What I’m hearing: If you’ve been prepping for fantasy drafts, you’re already all over this. Henderson has been the most explosive element of the Patriots’ offense throughout camp, and the coaching staff is smart enough to know New England needs some explosiveness. The concerns about Henderson are whether he can hold up to a full-time starting RB’s workload, considering he split carries with Quinshon Judkins last year at Ohio State. Rhamondre Stevenson is still there if the Patriots want to keep the rookie’s workload lighter early in the season. But there’s some sentiment in Foxborough that Henderson is going to be the type of player they don’t want to take off the field.
1:36
Why TreVeyon Henderson is making a jump in fantasy
Field Yates and Daniel Dopp explain why TreVeyon Henderson is such an intriguing player in fantasy.
Don’t be surprised if … the Jets lead the league in rushing.
What I’m hearing: They’re extremely high on second-year running back Braelon Allen, the 2024 fourth-round draft pick who’s still only 21 years old. They also know what they have in Breece Hall, who can be a primary ball carrier, a receiving back or some combination of the two. And in Justin Fields, the Jets have one of the most electrifying runners at the quarterback position the league has ever seen. This team’s offensive DNA is going to lie in its run game. And if Fields can show a consistent ability to get the ball downfield to Garrett Wilson in the passing game, it will only open things up more for the Jets to run, run, run.
AFC NORTH
Don’t be surprised if … wide receiver Zay Flowers takes a third-year leap.
What I’m hearing: The Ravens’ offensive identity is still going to be in their outstanding run game, but Flowers is their No. 1 wide receiver, and his absence from last season’s divisional round playoff game in Buffalo (knee) played a part in their loss. He’s healthy now and has had a nice camp. But the main reason I’m looking out for Flowers this season is the fact that DeAndre Hopkins has been on the team since the spring.
Last year at the Super Bowl, Chiefs coaches were raving to me about the impact Hopkins had after Kansas City acquired him — not as a pass catcher but as a teacher, particularly for rookie wideout Xavier Worthy. They talked about how Hopkins would grab the tablet after a drive, walk over to Worthy and teach him some of the finer details about route-running techniques. They felt Worthy’s improved performance throughout the season was due in part to Hopkins’ help, and Ravens coach John Harbaugh told me when I visited their camp that he has seen similar things from Hopkins since he has been in Baltimore. Perhaps Hopkins has the same kind of impact on Flowers that he had on Worthy.
Don’t be surprised if … the Bengals return to the AFC Championship Game.
What I’m hearing: The outside concern about the way the defense has looked in preseason games is not shared by those inside the building. The Bengals are installing a new scheme under new defensive coordinator Al Golden, and the coaching staff made a conscious decision to put as little of that scheme on tape as possible in the televised preseason games. People who have been at practice say the first-team defense has performed fairly well against Joe Burrow and one of the best offenses in the NFL — even with defensive end Trey Hendrickson not participating before agreeing to his new deal.
Cincinnati’s defense has only one direction to go after last season’s collapse. Opponents scored 25.5 points per game on the Bengals, tied for seventh most in the league. If that unit can get back to even the middle of the pack, this is a dangerous team with a potent offense and players who know how to win playoff games. As poorly as the past two seasons have gone in Cincinnati, the Bengals still managed to finish 9-8 in both of them. If that’s rock bottom, you have a contending roster.
Don’t be surprised if … rookie tight end Harold Fannin Jr. catches a lot of passes.
What I’m hearing: Fannin was one of the most productive college tight ends of all time at Bowling Green, where he set FBS single-season records for catches (117) and yards (1,555) by a tight end in 2024. He slipped to the third round of the draft because of a disappointing 40-yard dash time at the combine (4.71 seconds), but Browns coach Kevin Stefanski saw a hyper-versatile, hyper-productive prospect who could be used in a number of different ways in his offense.
Incumbent David Njoku is still a part of the plans, don’t get me wrong. But I think we’re going to see a lot of plays with Njoku and Fannin on the field together. And whoever’s playing quarterback for the Browns — which is Joe Flacco at the moment — will have an easy time finding the rookie.
Don’t be surprised if … they use a lot of tight ends.
What I’m hearing: Trade acquisition wide receiver DK Metcalf will be Aaron Rodgers‘ top target in the passing game, and the Steelers like their running back room with rookie Kaleb Johnson developing behind Jaylen Warren and Kenneth Gainwell. But it’s the depth at tight end that could make coordinator Arthur Smith’s offense surprising and unconventional.
Veteran Pat Freiermuth leads the group, but it also includes Jonnu Smith — who played for Arthur Smith in Tennessee and Atlanta — Connor Heyward and the massive Darnell Washington. The Steelers believe the depth and variety in that group will allow them to show a number of different looks to opposing defenses. With the wide receiver depth chart somewhat thin and full of question marks after Metcalf, look for a lot of 12- and 13-personnel sets from the Steelers in 2025.
AFC SOUTH
Don’t be surprised if … the Texans have the best defense in the league.
What I’m hearing: Houston is extremely excited about the quality and depth of its defensive roster. On the back end, second-year cornerback Kamari Lassiter and second-year safety Calen Bullock look like emerging stars alongside superstar corner Derek Stingley Jr. The Texans are also deep at linebacker and have a pair of high-end edge rushers up front in veteran Danielle Hunter and second-year man Will Anderson Jr. If there are questions, they’re probably at defensive tackle — though Houston added a handful of veterans like Sheldon Rankins, Folorunso Fatukasi and Mario Edwards Jr. to shore up its depth there.
The Texans were in the top five in defensive efficiency and defensive EPA last season, and only Denver, Baltimore and Dallas had more sacks than their 49. There are a lot of eyes on the Houston offense and whether quarterback C.J. Stroud can lead them to a bounce-back season behind a rebuilt offensive line and under a new coordinator. But regardless, the Texans should be a dominant defense week to week.
Don’t be surprised if … the Colts pull an upset and win the division.
What I’m hearing: They have a huge question mark at quarterback. Daniel Jones beat out Anthony Richardson Sr. for the starter’s job because he was steadier, not because he was spectacular. But if Jones can stay healthy and play the way he did for the Giants in their surprise 2022 playoff season, the Colts believe they can build a representative offense behind running back Jonathan Taylor, a strong offensive line and rookie tight end Tyler Warren (who they believe can be a star right away). The defense added some key pieces, not the least of which is former Bengals defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo, and Indy should be a lot better on that side of the ball than most think.
No team in the AFC South has gone longer without winning it than the Colts, who last finished atop the division in 2014 with Andrew Luck at quarterback. With that kind of drought and the team under somewhat new ownership (the late Jim Irsay’s daughter Carlie Irsay-Gordon is the team’s new CEO), there’s a lot of pressure on the coaching staff and front office to deliver — and soon.
Don’t be surprised if … a pair of rookies takes over the backfield by year’s end.
What I’m hearing: Barring a trade between now and Week 1, the Jaguars look poised to enter the season with a running back room that includes Travis Etienne Jr., Tank Bigsby, fourth-round rookie Bhayshul Tuten and seventh-round rookie LeQuint Allen Jr. Etienne and Bigsby could lead the backfield to start the season, but the new coaching staff and front office inherited them. They drafted Tuten, whose home run speed is enticing enough that he should force his way into a major role relatively soon, and Allen, who they believe can be their third-down back. Etienne is a free agent at season’s end, and Bigsby is signed through 2026. So a changing of the guard in the Jags’ backfield could be afoot before long.
Don’t be surprised if … rookie Elic Ayomanor is the No. 2 receiver.
What I’m hearing: The fourth-rounder out of Stanford has developed a strong rapport with rookie QB Cam Ward and has impressed coaches with his performance throughout training camp. Calvin Ridley projects as the No. 1 receiver, but after him, it’s veterans Tyler Lockett and Van Jefferson and rookies Ayomanor and Chimere Dike. Ward has publicly pumped up his wide receiver group as a top-five unit in the league. And while that might be an exaggeration, it does a lot for a wide receiver when his quarterback speaks highly of him. Don’t be shocked if Ayomanor is a factor.
AFC WEST
Don’t be surprised if … veteran J.K. Dobbins is the Broncos’ lead running back.
What I’m hearing: The Broncos like second-round rookie RJ Harvey a lot, but he’s still working on his pass-protection skills, and it sounds like Denver trusts Dobbins more in that department. That’s a requirement for a running back in a Sean Payton offense. If Dobbins can do everything the Broncos need there (and Harvey can’t quite yet), I would expect Dobbins to open the season as the team’s main early-down running back with Harvey mixing in a good number of touches.
As the season goes along, could Harvey take on more of a starter’s workload? Of course, and that might even be the team’s hope. But at least to start the season, expect Dobbins to get the majority of the work.
0:45
Why Field Yates likes the ‘reliability’ of J.K. Dobbins
Field Yates explains why J.K. Dobbins is a better bet than RJ Harvey in drafts.
Don’t be surprised if … the Chiefs trade for a running back.
What I’m hearing: Isiah Pacheco is healthy and ready to resume the lead back role the team planned for him before his early-season broken right leg last year, but the room is thin behind him. Veteran Kareem Hunt just turned 30, and the Chiefs might use rookie Brashard Smith in a more nontraditional role that takes advantage of his receiving skills as he develops. The Chiefs could use a third-down back with some pass protection ability and will be looking at trade and waiver possibilities as rosters get tinkered with ahead of Week 1.
Don’t be surprised if … quarterback Geno Smith sets a career high in passing yards.
What I’m hearing: Smith’s current career high is the 4,320 he put up last season in Seattle behind a substandard offensive line. Las Vegas doesn’t have a great O-line, but there are signs that it should be better than what he had in Seattle. Plus, second-year tight end Brock Bowers and rookie running back Ashton Jeanty bring explosiveness to the offense and will offer new offensive coordinator Chip Kelly the ability to get creative with alignments and play calls.
Smith wanted to be in Las Vegas and reunite with former Seahawks coach Pete Carroll, so he’s in a good headspace and playing some of the best football of his career.
Don’t be surprised if … running back Omarion Hampton wins Offensive Rookie of the Year.
What I’m hearing: The Chargers really like veteran running back Najee Harris. They gave him $5.25 million guaranteed in free agency and anticipated him being their starting running back, even after drafting Hampton in the first round. But Harris suffered an unfortunate eye injury in July that cost him a ton of training camp practice time. In the meantime, my understanding is that Hampton emerged quickly.
Harris should still be in the mix once he’s back and fully healthy, and that could well be in time for Week 1. But despite what offensive coordinator Greg Roman has been saying about the backs splitting snaps, I think Hampton is in line for a major role as the starter for the Chargers. And if he’s what they thought he could be when they spent that first-round pick on him, he might just take the starter’s job right away and never look back.
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