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Iran war could result in significant economic setback for the Middle East: UNDP report | The Express Tribune

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Iran war could result in significant economic setback for the Middle East: UNDP report  | The Express Tribune


An LPG gas tanker at anchor as traffic is down in the Strait of Hormuz, amid the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran, in Shinas, Oman, March 11, 2026. REUTERS

The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) warned on Monday that the ongoing war by the United States and Israel against Iran could result in a significant economic setback for the Middle East, with Arab nations potentially losing up to $200 billion in economic growth.

The ongoing conflict has already driven up global energy prices, further straining the global economy. An earlier UN report highlighted that the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has contributed to rising food and fertiliser prices. This trend is expected to disproportionately affect poorer nations.

In a report issued today, titled ‘Military Escalation in the Middle East: Economic and Social Implications for the Arab States region‘, the UNDP warned: “At the regional level, GDP is estimated to decline by approximately 3.7-6%, equivalent to a contraction of roughly $120-194b (in constant 2015 USD), with investment contracting more sharply, reflecting heightened uncertainty and reduced capital formation.”

The report warned that even if the military escalation ended quickly, the socio-economic consequences for the region would be profound. The overall loss could lead to a rise in the regional unemployment rate by as much as four percentage points, resulting in the loss of approximately 3.6 million jobs. Additionally, it was estimated that up to 4m people could be pushed into poverty due to the economic downturn.

Read: After Spain, Italy also refuses airbase access to US military aircraft involved in Iran war

Abdallah Al Dardari, the UN assistant secretary-general leading the UNDP Arab states bureau, described the situation as a “crisis” that was raising alarm bells for countries in the region.

The Gulf Cooperation Council countries and the Levant were expected to be particularly hard hit, with each region projected to lose more than 5.2% of its GDP.

 



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Iran oil returns: India set to receive first cargo in 5 years, tanker heads to Gujarat – The Times of India

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Iran oil returns: India set to receive first cargo in 5 years, tanker heads to Gujarat – The Times of India


India is set to receive its first shipment of Iranian crude oil since 2019, with a tanker carrying 600,000 barrels of oil en route to Gujarat following a temporary sanctions waiver by the US, according to PTI.Ship-tracking data indicates that the vessel Ping Shun is headed towards Vadinar port, marking a potential revival of Indo-Iran oil trade after nearly five years.“The Indo-Iranian oil trade has flickered back to life. Following the US administration’s decision to grant a 30-day window for Iranian oil “on the water” due to regional conflict, the vessel Ping Shun is now en route to Vadinar (in Gujarat) with 600,000 barrels of crude. This is the first such delivery since May 2019 and comes at a critical time for Indian refiners facing tightening inventories,” said Sumit Ritolia, Lead Research Analyst, Refining and Modelling at Kpler.The development follows Washington’s decision earlier this month to allow a 30-day window for the purchase of Iranian oil already at sea, aimed at easing global oil prices amid the ongoing US-Israel conflict with Iran. The window is set to expire on April 19.While the buyer of the cargo remains unidentified, Vadinar houses a 20 million tonnes per annum refinery operated by Rosneft-backed Nayara Energy and also serves as a landing point for crude supplies to inland refineries such as BPCL’s Bina unit.India’s oil ministry has so far maintained that any decision to resume imports from Iran will depend on techno-commercial viability.Before sanctions were tightened in 2018, India was among the largest buyers of Iranian crude, importing both Iran Light and Iran Heavy grades due to refinery compatibility and favourable pricing terms.Imports ceased in May 2019 after US sanctions were reimposed, with India shifting to alternative suppliers including the Middle East and the US. At its peak, Iranian crude accounted for 11.5 per cent of India’s total imports.India had imported about 518,000 barrels per day (bpd) of Iranian oil in 2018, which declined to 268,000 bpd between January and May 2019 during a sanctions waiver period before dropping to zero thereafter.“The Aframax Ping Shun (IMO 9231901) loaded with Iranian crude oil from Kharg Island in early March has emerged as the first vessel observed signalling a destination of Vadinar, India since May 2019, following sanction reimposition on Iranian oil by the first Trump administration,” Ritolia said.The tanker is estimated to have loaded around 600,000 barrels from Kharg Island around March 4 and is expected to reach Vadinar on April 4.An estimated 95 million barrels of Iranian oil are currently stored on vessels at sea, of which around 51 million barrels could be supplied to India, while the rest may be directed to China and Southeast Asian markets.However, payment mechanisms remain uncertain as Iran continues to be excluded from the SWIFT global banking system, complicating international transactions.Earlier, payments were routed in euros through Turkish banks, but that channel is no longer available following renewed sanctions restrictions.Iran was first disconnected from SWIFT in 2012 due to EU sanctions over its nuclear programme, with further disruptions in 2018 after the US reimposed sanctions, limiting its ability to receive payments and access foreign currency reserves.



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Pottery firm Denby appoints administrators in ‘necessary step’

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Pottery firm Denby appoints administrators in ‘necessary step’



The 217-year-old firm says it appointed FRP Advisory as administrators on Tuesday.



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US gas price tops $4 for first time since 2022

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US gas price tops  for first time since 2022



The Iran war continues to push up prices at the pump for US motorists.



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