Business
Irish economy at risk from ‘global shocks’, ESRI report warns
Ireland’s reliance on multinationals and international exports means “global shocks” pose “a great challenge for the Irish economy”, a new report has claimed.
The Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) study looked at what might happen with the Irish economy over the next decade.
The think tank describes the outlook as “relatively favourable” but the report authors stressed it is a projection, not a forecast, and said “the assumption that nothing will move the economy from its current trajectory is unrealistic”.
The report – entitled Ireland’s medium-term economic outlook: Risks and opportunities – warns the country is vulnerable to external risks and “unforeseen shocks”.
It said this is a particular issue because budget surpluses are based on windfall corporation tax receipts and “windfall taxes by definition could disappear rapidly”, meaning a five billion euro surplus could become a deficit of 13 billion euro.
The presence of multinational corporations “remains a tremendous positive for the Irish economy”, the report said, but it also highlights the importance of domestic businesses to help “mitigate” economic risk.
The report focused on a number of scenarios which could impact Ireland’s economy in the near future including: a global slowdown, a loss of competitiveness between Ireland and its trading partners, and an exodus of multinational companies and a change in the productivity levels of Irish-owned firms.
The report also found Ireland’s economy has had a ”remarkable performance” over the last 10 years, despite international and domestic challenges including Brexit and the pandemic.
It said this had led to employment and population growth “all of which should be celebrated”, but also that the speed of population growth after “a period of low public investment following the great recession” has contributed to the housing crisis.
ESRI director Professor Martina Lawless said, without any shocks, the projections show “a reasonably positive continuation of growth, although at a more moderate level than it has been over the last number of years”.
It also shows “a number of fairly plausible external risks could have significant repercussions on the economy”.
She said the most “impactful” ways to offset the risk would be “rebalancing the composition of the economy and supporting the productivity growth of the Irish-owned firms”.
She also noted that while the report covers the next decade, there are “much longer-term challenges” including an ageing population and climate change which are projected to hit economic activity in the mid to late 2030s.
She described the next 10 years as an “opportunity” for policies to promote the “fundamental building blocks that support economic activity”.
These include encouraging smaller firms to invest in research and development, building the country’s skills base and building up public infrastructure where there are “big deficits at the moment in housing, healthcare, transport and other utilities”.
Business
LPG crisis eases: Operations back to normal in many factories as commercial LPG supplies improve; workers return – The Times of India
LPG crisis for factories across the country seems to be easing as the government steps up availability of commercial liquefied petroleum gas. Production disruptions are gradually subsiding as supplies of commercial LPG improve and migrant workers return to factories, supported by companies providing meals or alternative cooking solutions.This improvement follows the government’s move on Friday to raise the allocation of commercial LPG by an additional 20 percentage points, taking it to 70 per cent of pre-disruption levels that had been affected by the Gulf conflict and Iran’s near blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
The Centre has designated sectors such as steel, automobiles, textiles, dyes, chemicals and plastics as priorities, given their labour-intensive operations and strong interlinkages with other industries, according to an ET report.Companies operating in these sectors have started to see operations gradually stabilise.Liquefied petroleum gas is extensively used across industries such as automobiles and electronics, particularly in processes like brazing and paint shop operations, as well as in segments like food processing.
Availability of Commercial LPG supplies
Industry players indicated that LPG availability has become more stable.“Earlier we had visibility of one-two days; now it’s about a week,” said Kamal Nandi, head of the appliances business at Godrej Enterprises. “There are no issues with labour or raw materials, and production is running at full throttle,” he was quoted as saying.An executive from the automobile sector noted that supply constraints at smaller vendors are easing, while larger manufacturers have managed to limit disruptions by adopting alternative fuel options.“The higher allocation for non-domestic LPG and inclusion of automobiles as a priority sector is a big help,” he said.Mayank Shah, vice president at Parle Products, said improved LPG availability is enabling previously impacted plants to move back towards optimal production levels. He added that companies have urged the government to include packaged foods among the priority sectors.Ajay DD Singhania, chief executive of Epack Durable, noted that supplies have recovered to nearly 60 per cent of normal levels and are likely to rise to around 80 per cent this week. “The new normal is that we have to follow up daily to secure LPG supplies, but availability has improved,” Singhania said. “Workforce retention is no longer a challenge with us offering meals or cooking support. However, production losses over the past three-four weeks are not recoverable.”Attendance levels have also improved as several firms introduced canteen meals, reducing reliance on LPG for cooking. Earlier, supply disruptions had led to absenteeism among migrant workers and a temporary outflow, as higher black market prices and the shutdown of small eateries and mess facilities made food access difficult.A senior executive in the auto components sector said companies are now providing meals across shifts or offering incentives of up to Rs 5,000 to offset higher LPG costs and retain workers. “Attendance has returned to normal,” he said.Avneet Singh Marwah, chief executive of Super Plastronics, said the migrant workforce has returned as supply pressures have eased. The company produces televisions under the Kodak, Thomson and Blaupunkt brands.
Business
Rupee rebounds from record low: Currency rises 128 paise to 93.57 against US dollar – The Times of India
Rupee opened the week in green, recovering sharply in early trade after regulatory intervention aimed at curbing banks’ currency exposure. The currency climbed to 93.57 against the US dollar, on Monday, gaining 128 paise from its previous close, after opening at 93.62 in the interbank foreign exchange market. This comes days after the currency had hit a record low of 94.85 on Friday, following a steep fall of 89 paise. The turnaround follows a directive issued by the Reserve Bank of India on March 27, 2026, which placed a cap of $100 million on the Net Open Position (NOP-INR) that banks can hold overnight. Lenders have been asked to comply with the new limit by April 10. Market participants said the move is prompting banks to reassess their positions, particularly those with long dollar holdings in the onshore market. As these positions are reduced, dollar sales are expected to increase, lending short-term support to the rupee. “As banks begin adjusting their positions, they are likely to sell dollars in the market, which can temporarily support the rupee. This creates a phase of relief, driven by position unwinding, not by a major shift in fundamentals, but still meaningful in the near term,” Amit Pabari, Managing Director at CR Forex Advisors told PTI. Even so, the broader environment remains challenging for the Indian currency. The dollar continues to draw strength from safe-haven demand, keeping the dollar index above the 100 mark and restricting any sustained appreciation in the rupee. The dollar index was last seen marginally lower by 0.06% at 100.09. At the same time, rising crude oil prices are adding to pressure, with Brent crude trading 2.16% higher at $115 per barrel in futures. Geopolitical tensions have played a key role in pushing oil prices higher amid concerns over supply disruptions. “For India, this is critical. Being a major oil importer, higher oil prices increase dollar demand, which directly puts pressure on the rupee,” Pabari said. He added that despite the current relief, the rupee’s outlook remains sensitive to global factors such as oil price movements, geopolitical developments and the strength of the US dollar. Dalal Street also reflected the cautious mood, with the BSE Sensex dropping 1,191.24 points to 72,391.98 in early deals, and the Nifty 50 declining 349.45 points to 22,470.15. Foreign institutional investors were also seen pulling back, having sold equities worth Rs 4,367.30 crore on a net basis on Friday, as per exchange data.
MUMBAI: RBI has placed consumer empowerment through portable bank accounts and cross-border efficiency at the centre of its Payments Vision 2028, signalling a new focus to improving user experience and reducing friction in money movement.While customers can freely open accounts with any bank, savings accounts are considered ‘sticky’ because of multiple standing instruction to send and receive money into the specified account. RBI’s work around this stickiness is a Payments Switching Service where all standing instructions are centralised. This centralised interface will allow customers to view and migrate all payment mandates, both incoming and outgoingreducing dependence on individual banks making accounts portable.A key thrust is on making cross-border payments faster, cheaper and more accessible. The central bank plans a comprehensive review of the ecosystem to identify regulatory, operational and technological bottlenecks, aligning domestic systems with global standards shaped by the G20.Proposed changes aim to lower entry barriers for firms, promote innovation and reduce delays in cross-border fund transfers, even as India has been signing agreements with other countries to link domestic fast payments systems and enable CBDC acceptance.
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LPG crisis eases: Operations back to normal in many factories as commercial LPG supplies improve; workers return – The Times of India
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