Russia’s oil exports crashed to their lowest point since the Ukraine war began, weighed down by buyers moving away from Moscow amid tightened US sanctions and Kyiv’s escalating attacks. In its latest assessment, the International Energy Agency (IEA) noted that Russian oil exports declined by 420 kb/d in November, pulling total shipments down to 6.9 mb/d.The drop in volumes and weakening prices pushed Moscow’s oil revenue down to $11 billion, which is $3.6 billion less than the same month last year. The IEA added that both export volumes and prices have dropped, “dragging export revenues to their lowest since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.”

Urals crude prices plunge

As exports dragged down, Urals crude prices also tumbled by $8.2/bbl to $43.52/bbl (one barrel is about 159 litres). This marked the lowest level since the start of the Ukraine conflict in February 2022.According to the IEA, this downturn pushed export revenues to their lowest monthly level since the invasion began.

Impact of Ukrainian strikes and Russia’s “shadow fleet”

The IEA said Ukrainian attacks on Russia’s sanctions-busting “shadow fleet” and marine oil facilities cut almost half of Russia’s November seaborne exports through the Black Sea.The pressure on shipments and prices comes as Russia struggles with meagre economic growth, the accumulated impact of sanctions and Ukrainian strikes on its energy infrastructure.Ukraine intensified strikes on Russian refineries over the summer and early autumn, causing domestic petrol prices to spike and prompting some Russian regions to introduce fuel rationing.“After weathering significant unplanned refinery outages in November, tightness in refined product markets has eased, but sanctions in 1Q26 will provide fresh challenges,” the IEA said.

Russia’s budget under strain

The Russian finance ministry reported that oil and gas revenues for the first nine months of the year were down 22% to $88 billion.A combination of high military spending, entrenched inflation and falling oil income has stretched Moscow’s budget. Russia is expected to post a $50 billion deficit this year, around three percent of GDP, and plans to raise taxes on consumers and businesses next year to narrow the gap.

US escalates pressure with tariffs and sanctions

The United States has warned several countries that they may face additional tariffs and punitive trade measures if they continue buying Russian oil. The EU has Washington recently imposed an additional 25% tariff on imports from India, citing its continued purchases of Russian crude. This was on top of the 25% tariff previously announced by US President Trump.In October, the US unveiled some of its toughest measures yet on Russia’s energy sector by sanctioning Rosneft and Lukoil, the country’s two biggest oil producers, in an effort to pressure Moscow to end the nearly four-year war in Ukraine.

Global supply slips

Global oil supply fell by 610 kb/d in November, extending cumulative declines from September’s record high of 109 mb/d to 1.5 mb/d, the IEA said.OPEC+ accounted for more than three-quarters of the overall drop, driven mainly by sanctions-hit Russia and Venezuela. The group contributed 80% of the supply decline over the past two months, reflecting major unplanned outages in Kuwait and Kazakhstan, alongside continued contractions in Russia and Venezuela.Among non-OPEC+ producers, the United States, Brazil and biofuels were also contributors to the global supply decline.

Outlook — What will happen in the oil sector?

Despite recent market tightness, the IEA projects global oil supply to grow by 3 mb/d in 2025 and a further 2.4 mb/d in 2026. However, the agency revised its supply growth forecasts downward, by 100 kb/d for 2025 and 20 kb/d for 2026 — to 106.2 mb/d and 108.6 mb/d respectively.On the demand front, world oil consumption is expected to rise by 830 kb/d in 2025, supported by improved macroeconomic and trade conditions. The IEA has also upgraded its 2026 demand outlook to 860 kb/d, an increase of 90 kb/d from earlier estimates.Gasoil and jet/kerosene are projected to account for half of this year’s demand growth, while fuel oil continues to lose ground due to substitution by natural gas and solar in power generation.

Last Updated:December 12, 2025, 11:25 IST

Meta India appoints Aman Jain as Head of Public Policy. Formerly at Amazon India and Google.

Meta India Appoints Aman Jain as New Head of Public Policy

Meta India has appointed Aman Jain as the new head of Public Policy to lead the company’s policy strategy and engagements with the government in India. He will join the company early next year, according to the press release.

He is currently the Director of Public Policy at Amazon India, where he leads policy strategy, stakeholder engagement and regulatory work. He has been in this role since November 2023.

Before joining Amazon, Aman spent over seven years at Google, holding multiple leadership positions in public policy and industry partnerships.

Across these roles, he led major engagements with ministries, regulators, industry bodies and global teams—especially around technology policy, fintech, digital ecosystems, competition, data governance and online safety.

Before his corporate roles, Aman also served in AIESEC International for over seven years, eventually becoming the President & CEO (Global). He led a global team across 110+ countries, created the mid-term organisational vision, oversaw governance reforms, and represented youth voices at global platforms like COP15 and the World Business Summit on Climate Change.

He has also led a private enterprise as Director at Peter & David Enterprises Pvt Ltd.

Jain completed his dual Master’s in Public Administration and International Relations.

Simon Milner, Vice President of Policy, Asia Pacific, India, is a strategic market for Meta. As the country’s digital economy accelerates across areas such as AI, emerging tech and the creator economy, Meta aims to help build a more inclusive, trusted, and future-ready internet ecosystem for India.

I’m pleased to welcome Aman as Head of Public Policy in India. His extensive experience in public policy and technology, will help Meta be an even more effective partner to regulators and industry stakeholders in developing an enabling policy environment. He will also be a strong addition to Meta’s APAC Policy leadership team.

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These measures are part of Pakistan’s plan to successfully complete the second review of the $7 billion Extended Fund Facility (EFF) and unlock the third $1 billion tranche, along with the first $200 million tranche under the $1.4 billion Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF).

The IMF’s recently released staff report highlights that Pakistan has achieved most targets under the programme, though it projects that the country’s balance of payment gap could widen to $3.253 billion by 2029–30, signaling potential need for another IMF programme in the future.

The report outlines contingency measures the government plans to adopt if revenues fall short by December 2025.

These include raising excises on fertilisers and pesticides by five percentage points, introducing levies on high-value sugary items, and broadening the GST base.

In addition, Islamabad is ready to reduce or postpone spending in response to lower revenues.

Other commitments include full deregulation of the sugar sector, continued tariff adjustments in the power sector, and measures to reduce system losses and costs.

The government will also roll out point-of-sale systems for 40,000 large retailers nationwide over the next two years, while all provinces will move toward harmonised sales tax procedures.

The IMF report notes that, in the current fiscal year, Pakistan will restrict spending on new development schemes to 10% of the PSDP, prioritising completion of ongoing projects worth around Rs2.5 trillion.

From the next fiscal year, greater focus will be placed on climate-related initiatives.

Public procurement is set to transition to digital e-pads, with the Auditor General required to submit a compliance report to the president by March 2026.

Under social protection measures, the Kafalat cash transfer under the BISP programme will rise to Rs14,500 per quarter from January 2026, expanding coverage to 10.2 million families.

Biometric verification for payments will remain mandatory, and the government plans to launch the long-awaited e-wallet system by June 2026.

On energy reforms, the IMF has noted that the government has already decided to shift annual tariff rebasing from July to January 2026. Last fiscal year, the circular debt stock was reduced to Rs1.614 trillion.

By January 2026, the government aims to settle Rs1.2 trillion owed to commercial banks, out of which Rs660 billion will go to Pakistan Private Holdings Limited and the rest to the Central Power Purchasing Agency.

The plan also includes eliminating Rs128 billion in interest payments owed to IPPs and keeping the circular debt at zero inflow until fiscal year 2031.

The Fund highlights that 5.2 million income tax returns were filed in FY2024, while the number is expected to reach 7 million in FY2025.

It acknowledges Pakistan’s progress on stabilisation, noting improvements in foreign exchange reserves, which have risen to $14.5 billion, and a 1.3% primary surplus delivered in FY2025.

Fiscal performance remains strong, with the primary surplus recorded at 1.3%, and the IMF report says this surplus was achieved in line with the programme target.

According to the report, within one year, foreign exchange reserves increased from $9.4 billion to $14.5 billion, and reserves are projected to rise further in the coming years.

The IMF says Pakistan has achieved its first current account surplus in 14 years and terms the primary surplus target for fiscal year 2025–26 achievable. Reforms to increase revenues and reduce debt are described as ongoing.

On inflation, the IMF notes that inflation increased due to food prices following the floods but says this inflationary pressure is temporary. Inflation is projected to ease to 7% in the current fiscal year.

The IMF has stressed maintaining a tight monetary policy to keep inflation under control. It also says exchange rate flexibility is necessary to absorb shocks.

At the same time, the IMF warns that the 2022 floods highlighted Pakistan’s deep climate vulnerability, having affected seven million people and claiming nearly 1,000 lives, while causing extensive losses to infrastructure, homes and livestock.

The report says that following the floods, the importance of reforms and policy continuity has increased further, and it urges stronger climate adaptation measures, improved water management and disaster preparedness.

The global lender has also stressed sustained reforms in taxation, governance, state-owned enterprises and energy to secure long-term growth.

It says Pakistan must widen the tax net, simplify tax procedures, ensure data transparency, and maintain a strict monetary policy to keep inflation stable. Strengthening forex market transparency and reducing policy uncertainty are also essential.

The IMF report adds that progress has been made in improving the power sector through energy tariff adjustments, but further reforms are required to stabilise the sector.

It also notes that improving governance in state-owned enterprises and the investment environment is important, and that trade and investment reforms are essential for sustainable growth.

It says RSF reforms will help improve flood risk management and water governance.

The report concludes that Pakistan’s economic recovery remains fragile but is moving in the right direction under the current programme.

Stronger reforms and consistent policy implementation, it notes, will be critical for lowering debt, raising revenue and sustaining growth in the years ahead.