For Indian tech and medical professionals, researchers and even global achievers eyeing to work in the US, the path is becoming increasingly uncertain. New data shows that even the most elite immigration routes, once seen as relatively stable, are now facing sharply higher rejection rates, signalling a broader tightening of legal migration pathways.The US has significantly increased denial rates for high-skilled immigration categories in fiscal 2025 (year ending Sept 30, 2025), reflecting a policy-driven shift to restrict legal migration even for highly qualified professionals according to a new analysis by the National Foundation for American Policy (NFAP).“The latest data show that Trump administration officials intend to make it difficult for even the most highly skilled individuals from around the world to work in the US,” said Stuart Anderson, executive director of NFAP.A change of this magnitude indicates a crackdown on approvals, the analysis noted, pointing to a sharp rise in rejection rates despite no formal regulatory changes.

Green card routes for top talent see sharpest rise

The steepest increases are in employment-based green card categories used by highly accomplished professionals. The increase in denials occurred within a single year, despite no new regulations indicating a shift in adjudication standards.

Over a longer period, the trend is even sharper: NIW denial rates rose from 4.3% in FY2022 to 44.8% in FY2025, states the report.

Temporary work visas also tightening

Denial rates have also increased across key temporary work visa categories, particularly toward the end of FY2025:

H-1B remains stable—but pressure persists

The H-1B visa, widely used by Indian IT professionals, has not seen a comparable increase in denial rates, the denial rates remained stable at around 2.0%–2.1% in FY2025. This is attributed to a 2020 legal settlement, which limits changes to adjudication standards without formal rulemaking.However, policy pressure continues through other measures. President Trump has signed an executive order mandating a $100,000 fee to petition for an H‑1B worker outside the US. Further, selection in the lottery for H-1B cap visas is linked to wages and there is a proposal to increase wages across all levels.

Backlogs and delays worsen the squeeze

For the Indian diaspora, these statistics are worrying. Between Q4 FY2024 and Q4 FY2025, backlogs rose across key immigration filings. Pending I-129 petitions—used by employers to sponsor non-immigrant workers such as H-1B, L-1 and O-1 visa holders — increased by more than 54,000. The backlog for I-140 petitions, which are employer-sponsored applications for employment-based green cards, rose by 58,400.At the final stage, delays also deepened: the backlog for I-485 applications—filed by individuals to adjust status to permanent residence (green card) within the US—continued to grow.

Bottom line

The data signals a clear shift: legal immigration pathways are narrowing over FY2025, particularly in the latter half of the fiscal year, driven by stricter adjudication rather than new laws.

UK inflation lifted to its highest since December after a sharp jump in diesel and petrol prices caused by the conflict in the Middle East, according to official figures.

Chancellor Rachel Reeves said the Iran crisis was “not our war, but it is pushing up bills for families and businesses” as a result.

The rate of Consumer Prices Index (CPI) inflation increased to 3.3% in March from 3% in February, the Office for National Statistics said.

The increase was in line with predictions from economists.

Higher motor fuel was the main driver of the acceleration in inflation, increasing by 8.7% month-on-month – the largest increase since June 2022, shortly after the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

The ONS found that the average price of petrol rose by 8.6p per litre between February and March to 140.2p per litre. This marked the highest price since August 2024.

Diesel prices meanwhile increased by 17.6p per litre in March to an average of 158.7p per litre, the highest price since November 2023.

Office for National Statistics chief economist Grant Fitzner said: “Inflation climbed in March, largely due to increased fuel prices, which saw their largest increase for over three years.

“Air fares were another upward driver this month, alongside rising food prices.

“The only significant offset came from clothing costs, where prices rose by less than this time last year.”

The data revealed that the cost of air travel also increased significantly, with inflation of 14.5% compared with the same month last year.

The rise in air fares, which analysts have partly linked to the early timing of the Easter holidays, was the highest since July last year.

Meanwhile, food and non-alcoholic drink prices were up 3.7% year-on-year in March, accelerating from 3.3% inflation in the previous month.

This included another acceleration in the price of sweets and chocolates, which were up 10.6% year-on-year.

Elsewhere, clothing and footwear had a downward pressure on inflation, as prices dipped 0.8% for the month.

Sales and discounting activity pulled inflation in the category to its lowest level since March 2021.

The rise in the overall rate of inflation drives the UK further away from the 2% inflation target set by the Government and the Bank of England.

Ms Reeves said: “We’re acting to protect people from unfair price rises if they occur to bring down food prices at the till, and are boosting long-term energy security — building a stronger, more secure economy.”

James Smith, developed markets economist at ING, said: “The latest rise in UK headline CPI tells us virtually nothing about the scale and duration of the inflation wave to come.

“The Bank of England is still flying blind, with the conflict unresolved, but the limited amount of survey data available so far suggests little cause for alarm on inflation.”

Anna Leach, chief economist at the Institute of Directors, said: “As inflation has come in in line with revised expectations, and given yesterday’s labour market data which showed a fall in vacancies and further downward progress in wage growth, interest rates should hold at next week’s MPC (Monetary Policy Committee) meeting.

“But there remains tremendous uncertainty over the outlook for energy supply and prices.”