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Loan repayment cuts FX to $15.5b | The Express Tribune

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Loan repayment cuts FX to .5b | The Express Tribune


Commercial loans rose by $1.7b to $7.2b by end 2025; IMF mission to arrive on 25th

The finance ministry said that the exchange value of the rupee was maintained at an artificially high level in the past, which triggered the balance of payments crisis. PHOTO: REUTERS


ISLAMABAD:

Pakistan has repaid a $700 million Chinese commercial loan this week, temporarily reducing foreign exchange reserves to $15.5 billion, as it now faces a decision on whether to return bilateral cash deposit loans or seek their extension, a move that may limit its policy choices.

The development comes ahead of the third review talks scheduled with the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

An IMF mission will visit Pakistan from February 25 to March 11 to hold discussions for the approval of a $1 billion tranche under the Extended Fund Facility, along with over $200 million under a climate facility. The IMF team will spend three days in Karachi before beginning talks with the federal government in Islamabad from March 2. Central bank sources told The Express Tribune that Islamabad repaid the $700 million loan to the China Development Bank. China had earlier rolled over the same loan for a period of three years.

The sources said another $1 billion loan from the China Development Bank is maturing in June this year, which the government may repay ahead of schedule in the hope of securing refinancing before the close of the current financial year.

Pakistan remains heavily dependent on China, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Saudi Arabia, as financial support from these three countries, combined with higher foreign remittances, has so far helped the country avoid a sovereign default.

China has extended $6.6 billion in foreign commercial loans, $4 billion in cash deposits and a $4.5 billion credit swap facility. These three instruments are critical for staying afloat in the middle of shrinking exports and weak foreign direct investment. Following the repayment of the $700 million loan, gross official foreign exchange reserves held by the central bank fell to $15.5 billion as of February 10. The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) is expected to bridge the gap through increased dollar purchases from the domestic market.

Total commercial loans rose by $1.7 billion to $7.2 billion by the end of the last fiscal year after the government also secured a costly loan backed by Asian Development Bank guarantees. Pakistan’s low sovereign credit rating continues to be a major constraint and a key factor behind the high cost of external borrowing. In its annual debt policy statement issued this month, the Ministry of Finance said external public debt increased by 6% to $91.8 billion as of June 2025, reflecting an annual rise of $5 billion. The largest increase in the external debt came from multilateral development partners, including the IMF, whose lending rose by 8.7%, or nearly $4 billion. Borrowing from commercial banks increased by $1.6 billion, largely due to a $1 billion loan secured against an ADB policy-based guarantee, the ministry added.

The ministry said it hoped to prioritise long-term concessional and commercial financing, including the planned Panda Bond issuance. However, all deadlines to raise $250 million through Panda Bonds in the Chinese market have so far lapsed.

The sources said the government was also reviewing its policy on seeking extensions of bilateral cash deposits after the UAE recently rolled over a $2 billion deposit for just one month. Pakistan had hoped the UAE would extend the deposit for two years and reduce the interest rate from 6.5% to around 3%. However, those expectations were dashed last month when the UAE approved only a one-month rollover.

Addressing a gathering of industrialists, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif recently said that reliance on loans was a heavy burden on national self-respect and forced the country to bow its head in shame. He said seeking external financing compromised national dignity and autonomy, making it difficult to refuse conditions imposed by lenders. A senior government official said earlier this week that discussions with the UAE were continuing for a longer-term extension of the deposit. Deputy Prime Minister Ishaq Dar resolved part of the issue with UAE authorities on Thursday, indicating that some non-economic factors were also delaying the rollover.

Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb said last week that Pakistan’s external financing requirements were fully met and that there was no financing gap.

The IMF is expected to reassess Pakistan’s gross external financing needs in light of recent developments.

The sources said internal discussions were also taking place about how long Pakistan could continue with the policy of seeking annual rollovers of $12.5 billion in cash deposits from China, Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Chinese cash deposits are also approaching maturity, requiring the government to once again seek rollovers at the highest level.

The sources added that any new financing from Standard Chartered Bank and the Islamic Development Bank could provide short-term relief by helping repay some near-term obligations. So far, no country has formally asked Pakistan to return its deposits, the sources said.



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Stock market this week: Middle East tensions, oil prices, FII flows & more — what will guide Dalal Street

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Stock market this week: Middle East tensions, oil prices, FII flows & more — what will guide Dalal Street


Dalal Street is heading into the new trading week with global uncertainty firmly in focus, as investors keep a close watch on the evolving situation in the Middle East, fluctuations in crude oil prices and the behaviour of foreign investors. Analysts said that sentiment is likely to remain fragile and heavily influenced by developments in negotiations between the United States and Iran, while movements in the rupee, global equities and the US dollar are also expected to shape market direction in the days ahead.Trading activity during the week is also expected to be shaped by the rupee’s movement against the US dollar, while investors continue to assess the impact of global uncertainty on risk appetite. Markets will remain closed on Thursday for Bakri Id.A key trigger for sentiment emerged over the weekend after US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said negotiations between Washington and Tehran had shown some progress, raising expectations that the ongoing conflict in West Asia could move closer to resolution.Ajit Mishra, SVP, Research at Religare Broking Ltd, said investors would closely track developments tied to crude oil, global currencies and bond markets. “This week is expected to remain highly sensitive to global macroeconomic developments and currency movements. Investors will also monitor crude oil prices, developments in US-Iran negotiations, and the trajectory of the US dollar and bond yields, all of which are expected to influence foreign flows and overall risk appetite,” he said.Apart from geopolitical developments, the Reserve Bank’s decision to transfer a record Rs 2.87 lakh crore dividend to the government for the year ended March 2026 is also expected to remain in focus. The announcement comes at a time when rising import costs and supply chain pressures linked to the West Asia conflict continue to weigh on the economy.According to Mishra, market participants are expected to evaluate how the RBI payout could affect liquidity conditions, fiscal flexibility and government spending in the months ahead.Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, said market behaviour in the coming sessions is expected to remain sensitive to fresh headlines surrounding diplomatic negotiations and oil prices. “Markets are expected to remain volatile and heavily headline-driven in the coming week, with investor attention firmly focused on developments surrounding the US–Iran situation, broader diplomatic negotiations and movements in crude oil prices,” he said.“While hopes of a diplomatic breakthrough and easing geopolitical tensions have improved sentiment modestly, investors continue to remain cautious as uncertainty surrounding the final outcome of the negotiations remains elevated,” Ponmudi added.He further said investors are expected to watch institutional flows, global equity trends, macroeconomic indicators and the rupee for further market cues. “With global uncertainty still elevated, market participants are likely to remain selective and cautious despite the recent improvement in sentiment,” he said.Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Investments Limited, said markets would require stronger support factors to build a more constructive setup. According to him, a meaningful decline in crude oil prices, steady foreign institutional investor flows and stable Q1FY27 earnings expectations without major downgrades would be important for sustained momentum.In the previous week, the BSE benchmark index rose 177.36 points, or 0.23%, while the NSE Nifty advanced 75.8 points, or 0.32%.



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‘Shameful’ more spent on benefits than jobs for young people, says adviser Alan Milburn

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‘Shameful’ more spent on benefits than jobs for young people, says adviser Alan Milburn



Reforms are needed of the welfare system to tackle the high numbers of young people not in work or education, says Alan Milburn.



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Pets at Home hoping for boost under new boss despite consumer pressure

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Pets at Home hoping for boost under new boss despite consumer pressure


Pets at Home investors will be hoping the retailer’s new boss can lay out a strategy to return it to profit growth despite a challenging consumer backdrop.

Shares in the company currently sit close to its lowest level for almost seven years following a recent downturn in the group’s retail arm.

The dip in the group’s performance contributed to the departure of previous chief executive Lyssa McGowan late last year.

In March, former Waitrose boss James Bailey took the reins in a bid to drive a turnaround in performance.

Shareholders will be hoping the new boss can show early signs of improvement and a long-term strategy to drive growth in Pets at Home’s update on Wednesday May 27.

EK6R79 Pets at home interior store space

The pet products retailer and vet chain is expected to report an underlying pre-tax profit of around £93 million for the year to March, according to analysts.

It would represent a roughly 30% fall from last year, after the company came under pressure from weak demand for discretionary products.

Analysts have said investors will be looking at early trading in the current financial year to see how consumer spending is holding up.

AJ Bell’s investment director Russ Mould said: “Pets at Home could badly do with some renewed pep.

“Under executive chair Ian Burke, who has returned to a non-executive role after leading the business on an interim basis, Pets at Home laid out a plan to fix a retail business which has been badly affected by a reduction in discretionary spend on toys and treats for Britons’ furry and feathered friends.

“The country may have a reputation for loving their animal companions but in an environment where households are having to watch their pennies, these nice-to-have items were off the list.”

The group has also seen sales of pet food and similar products face fierce pricing competition from non-specialist retailers, such as supermarkets.

It has since cut prices among around 1,000 products in order to help drive activity, with cash-strapped shoppers looking for value.

Data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed that UK retail sales volumes dropped to an 11-month low in April, with a 1.3% fall for the month.

Pets at Home is predicted to report revenues of £1.47 billion for the past year, just marginally lower than £1.482 billion reported last year.



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