If, come April 6, the Big Ten has ended its quarter-century national championship drought, it still won’t change an uncomfortable fact: Since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, no conference has done less with more in the NCAA tournament.

The Big Ten has averaged exactly eight NCAA tournament bids in each of the past five seasons. That’s 40 teams altogether — and all 40 have gone home with a loss. The record of this 18-team conference in the Big Dance is just six games over .500 (46-40), which should be impossible with a team seed average under six (5.97 to be exact).

So either five selection committees have underperformed when it counts, or the league itself has. And, well, we all know where the bodies are buried: No. 8 seed Loyola Chicago over 1-seed Illinois in 2021 (round of 32), No. 15 Saint Peter’s over 3-seed Purdue in 2022 (Sweet 16), No. 16 Fairleigh Dickinson over 1-seed Purdue in 2023 (round of 64). You get the idea.

But it began to change this past March. Four of eight Big Ten teams made the second weekend, with Michigan State reaching the Elite Eight. For a change, the conference played to its seed across the board.

We’ll see this March (and April?) whether that was a trend or a one-off. This Bracketologist is betting on the former.

The Big Ten begins conference play on Dec. 2.

Final Four contenders

Michigan Wolverines
Purdue Boilermakers
Michigan State Spartans
Illinois Fighting Illini

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Highlight: Kentucky falls to Michigan State in Champions Classic

The Wildcats shoot 35 percent from the field against the Spartans’ 50 percent as they struggle to keep up in the 83-66 loss in Madison Square Garden.

Michigan sits atop the first Bracketology of December and Purdue is No. 1 in both wire service polls. Both are legitimate national championship contenders. At least two others appear good enough to win four games and play into April.

Likely tournament teams

Indiana Hoosiers
USC Trojans
Nebraska Cornhuskers
Wisconsin Badgers
UCLA Bruins

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Bethune-Cookman Wildcats vs. Indiana Hoosiers: Game Highlights

Bethune-Cookman Wildcats vs. Indiana Hoosiers: Game Highlights

Indiana and Nebraska are the most interesting names in this group. The Hoosiers haven’t gotten it right in a long time, winning only one tournament game in the past decade. With the benefit of hindsight, three Sweet 16 teams under Tom Crean from 2012-2016 is looking pretty good. Meanwhile, the Cornhuskers remain the only power conference team to never win an NCAA tournament game. That has a real chance of changing in 2026.

Possible tournament teams

Ohio State Buckeyes
Northwestern Wildcats
Washington Huskies
Oregon Ducks
Maryland Terrapins

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Arrinten Page wins it for Northwestern as time expires

Arrinten Page wins it for Northwestern as time expires

If form holds, at least a couple from this group will be smiling on Selection Sunday. Ohio State fell just outside the previous group and should make it. Even if the Buckeyes are the only one from this group, the conference is going to send double-digit teams dancing for the first time.

Sleeper team

Iowa Hawkeyes

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Ole Miss Rebels vs. Iowa Hawkeyes: Game Highlights

Ole Miss Rebels vs. Iowa Hawkeyes: Game Highlights

It’s hard not to be fascinated by the Hawkeyes, who are transitioning from the scoring machines of the Fran McCaffery era to the sub-350 tempo of the Ben McCollum era. Iowa fans will take whatever results in deep runs, and so far, so good. The Hawkeyes open Big Ten play in the top 30 in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency, according to KenPom.

Long shots

Penn State Nittany Lions
Rutgers Scarlet Knights
Minnesota Golden Gophers

Rutgers might never again recruit the likes of Dylan Harper and Ace Bailey, and as such will always have an uphill climb to the NCAA tournament. Penn State and Minnesota can be good on a regular basis, but the sheer number of teams they need to pass in a league this deep is daunting.

Key games to watch

Illinois vs. Tennessee in Nashville (Saturday)
Michigan at Michigan State (Jan. 30)
Michigan at Purdue (Feb. 17)
Michigan vs. Duke in Washington, D.C. (Feb. 21)
Michigan State at Purdue (Feb. 26)