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Men’s NCAA basketball megapreview, predictions for 2025-26

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Men’s NCAA basketball megapreview, predictions for 2025-26


More than 200 days will have passed between the Florida Gators winning the 2024-25 national championship and the start of the 2025-26 men’s college basketball season, but the action finally returns on Nov. 3.

ESPN’s Jeff Borzello, Joe Lunardi and Myron Medcalf weigh in on storylines that could shape the new season — and they join Neil Paine in making their predictions for everything from the Final Four and conference winners to All-America teams and beyond.

Which teams could make the biggest jumps? Which Top 25 programs are primed for early NCAA tournament exits? They answer seven burning questions then make their picks below.

Jump to:
Championship picks, conference winner |
Awards, All-America predictions

Could Florida really repeat?

Borzello: Florida absolutely can run it back this season.

Todd Golden brings back his entire frontcourt, a dominant group led by potential first-round NBA draft picks Alex Condon and Thomas Haugh and starting center Rueben Chinyelu. Golden also added two bona fide playmakers from the transfer portal in Boogie Fland and Xaivian Lee. Sure, there are some questions about depth — and whether Haugh can play full time at the 3 — but the talent of this starting five has few peers nationally, and Golden has proved he has the chops to win big games.

Medcalf: Florida can join the Gators team that achieved the same feat in 2006 and 2007.

Still, it’s important to note that this is a completely different squad with more questions than last season’s championship roster. Walter Clayton Jr., Alijah Martin and Will Richard had a rare chemistry that was the foundation of the Gators’ 2025 title run. Martin was the new face in that trio, but he also had previously helped a team reach the Final Four (Florida Atlantic). Haugh, Fland and Lee will have to build that bond on the fly as Golden guides a starting five that will feature two point guards.

Lunardi: Don’t bet on a repeat in Gainesville.

Not because the Gators aren’t good enough but because winning 12 straight NCAA tournament games over two years is really, really hard. The fact that UConn did it in 2023 and 2024 makes the probability of back-to-back repeats less likely — not more. I still like Florida. A lot. But this is a case where you shouldn’t blame the messenger.


Will the SEC be as dominant as it was in 2024-25?

Borzello: The depth will be just as good, but it won’t be as powerful at the top.

Last season, the league produced two 1-seeds, two 2-seeds, a 3-seed and a 4-seed among its 14 NCAA tournament teams. With the expected improvement of LSU, we could see up to 15 teams fighting for tournament bids this season — and I would have at least 13 projected as of today. But it’s difficult to foresee four teams in the top eight again. Florida is a title contender and Kentucky isn’t far behind, but none of the other teams is a surefire Final Four threat.

Lunardi: It’s important to consider the laws of probability.

Is a conference likely to get better or worse after breaking the NCAA single-season bid record by three spots? Both on the court and team sheets, the SEC was every bit as dominant as the selection committee concluded its teams would be in the NCAA tournament. But there has to be at least some regression this season, if only because the uncommon sense of handing NCAA bids to teams that win only one-third of their conference games has undergone an offseason of heavy scrutiny. (As it should. No league is that good.)

Medcalf: It depends on your definition of dominant.

The SEC could again have a double-digit pool of representatives in the field on Selection Sunday, but it doesn’t have as many teams that could actually cut down the nets as last season. Florida and Kentucky are real contenders. It seems as if Tennessee, Alabama, Auburn and Arkansas could all be second-weekend teams too. Last season’s SEC, however, had three players who made the Associated Press’ All-America first team and one who made the third team. Those were dominant squads with star power.


Which team will make the biggest leap from 2024-25?

Borzello: NC State Wolfpack

Last season, we saw Dusty May and Pat Kelsey take over new programs and produce incredible turnarounds in Year 1, as their respective Michigan and Louisville squads jumped from eight wins to 27. This season, the best bet might be Will Wade and NC State. The Wolfpack went 12-19 overall last season, including 5-15 in the ACC, but Wade stockpiled a talented roster after taking over for Kevin Keatts in the spring. Led by potential All-American Darrion Williams, NC State finds itself inside my preseason top 25.

Lunardi: Iowa Hawkeyes

A season ago, Iowa missed its second straight NCAA tournament. As a result, Fran McCaffery now finds himself coaching at his alma mater, Penn. The deeper issue involved the Hawkeyes going three straight campaigns with a sub-150 defensive rating, costing them games despite considerable offensive talent. It was an anomaly in terms of approach in the Big Ten, one that new coach Ben McCollum figures to immediately solve. McCollum’s ultra-patient style and ultra-experienced imports will surprise in their new league and sneak into the tournament.

Medcalf: Washington Huskies

Last season, Washington finished 13-18 in Danny Sprinkle’s first year in Seattle, but a strong transfer class led by former USC teammates Desmond Claude and Wesley Yates III could put the Huskies in the bubble conversation in Sprinkle’s second campaign. Early matchups against Baylor, USC and UCLA will be great barometers for Washington and its new roster.


First Top 25 team to exit the NCAA tournament

Borzello: Creighton Bluejays

The only preseason AP Top 25 team that wasn’t in my preseason top 25 is Michigan State, but I’m not naive enough to bet against Tom Izzo, regardless of the seed he gets on Selection Sunday. So, I’ll go with Creighton. The Bluejays should be elite offensively, especially if Jackson McAndrew makes the leap I’m expecting. But they could really struggle on the defensive end of the floor, and the primary creators in the half court could be a work in progress. If things get tight in a tournament environment, it could spell an early exit.

Lunardi: Gonzaga Bulldogs

Gonzaga avoided a major hit when a judge in Washington’s Spokane County granted a preliminary injunction to Grand Canyon transfer Tyon Grant-Foster, allowing him to play this season. The hard-luck veteran is no longer in limbo to start the campaign, but the Bulldogs — who last season missed the Sweet 16 for the first time in a decade — still have legitimate backcourt concerns, ones that could lead to an even earlier tournament exit.

Medcalf: North Carolina Tar Heels

The Tar Heels have more depth and more overall talent, but they couldn’t avoid the bubble with AP All-American RJ Davis leading the way last season. Caleb Wilson is a five-star prospect who will have key transfers — including Henri Veesaar — around him, but North Carolina will have to prove things have changed before fans are ready to believe.


Most intriguing mid-major

Borzello: UNC Wilmington Seahawks

UNCW won 27 games last season and went to the NCAA tournament, but the Seahawks will be more talented this time around despite returning just one starter. I’m mostly fascinated by the way Takayo Siddle went about that reload: poaching good players from other teams around the Coastal Athletic Association. CJ Luster II transferred from Stony Brook, Christian May arrived from Towson, Jahnathan Lamothe from North Carolina A&T and Madison Durr from Monmouth. Siddle also upgraded the interior with Virginia Tech transfer Patrick Wessler, who scored 10 points in 18 minutes against Duke last season, as well as Binghamton transfer Gavin Walsh, one of the nation’s top rebounders. This team has a chance to go to a second straight NCAA tournament — and potentially win a game.

Lunardi: The Western Athletic Conference

I’m going with an entire mid-major conference in lieu of a single team — and it’s not necessarily for good reason. Only seven schools remain in the shrinking WAC, a conference with both a serious past and a negligible future. The early departure of Grand Canyon to the Mountain West leaves a gaping hole at the top — and only three teams that have ever made the NCAA tournament. Somebody has to qualify, at least in 2026, which should make for great short-term theater in the WAC.

Medcalf: St. Thomas-Minnesota Tommies

I’ll go with St. Thomas-Minnesota, a team that is eligible for the NCAA tournament for the first time after its transition from Division III to Division I athletics. The Tommies are the preseason pick to win the Summit League crown and potentially the conference tournament, which would make the team the first squad to go from Division III to Division I and secure an NCAA tournament berth. But it gets better. The supporters of this program are ready to spend (see: the new $175 million arena that opens next week) to make this private school in St. Paul the Gonzaga of the Upper Midwest. A run this season could put the Tommies on that path.


Athlete with outside shot to win Player of the Year

Borzello: Zuby Ejiofor, St. John’s

If we take out two returning All-Americans (Braden Smith and JT Toppin) and the top three freshmen (AJ Dybantsa, Darryn Peterson and Cameron Boozer), the next guy on my list would be Ejiofor. You could have made the case last season that the St. John’s big man was the most impactful player in the Big East, given his offensive rebounding, ability to draw fouls and influence defensively. The Red Storm should be right around the top five nationally this season and a legitimate Final Four contender — and if that comes to fruition, Ejiofor taking another step forward after last season’s breakout will be a major reason.

Lunardi: Yaxel Lendeborg, Michigan

Lendeborg is the right man in the right place at exactly the right time to possibly collect some major hardware. Last season, only two Division I players led their respective teams in the five major statistical categories (points, rebounds, assists, blocked shots and steals). One was Cooper Flagg; the other was Lendeborg at UAB. Now in a great spot at Michigan, Lendeborg’s number will be impossible to miss. That he could be the missing player for a legitimate Final Four contender is just a bonus.

Medcalf: Darius Acuff Jr., Arkansas

John Calipari has a strong history with high-level point guards at this level. John Wall, Derrick Rose and Tyler Ulis were All-Americans under his leadership. If Acuff can be a high-level playmaker for an Arkansas team that competes for a spot in the SEC’s top tier, Acuff could enter the Player of the Year conversation.


Coach with the most at stake

Borzello: Hubert Davis, North Carolina

Davis is the highest-profile coach entering the season in a tenuous situation, and he happens to coach one of the blue bloods of the sport with one of the best jobs in the country. Through four seasons at the helm, he has been to a national championship game, won an ACC championship, earned a 1-seed and been to multiple Sweet 16s. But the expectations in Chapel Hill don’t drop, and a missed NCAA tournament in 2023 combined with last season’s inconsistent 11-seed have increased the pressure on Davis. There’s enough talent on the roster to cool his seat, but that was the case last season too.

» Read Borzello’s coaching hot seat guide

Lunardi: Rick Pitino, St. John’s

Pitino is 73 years old. He has won everything there is to win at virtually every level of basketball. One could argue his numbers since being selected to the Naismith Basketball Hall of Fame in 2013 — a 221-72 record, a .754 winning percentage and six NCAA tournament bids in nine tries — make up their own HOF trajectory. What he hasn’t done is finish the job in his hometown. Two years with the New York Knicks half a lifetime ago and the past two with St. John’s have scratched an inch, certainly. But the chance to go out by winning really big with the Red Storm is very much on the table for Pitino in 2025-26. It could be his last, best chance.

Medcalf: Kelvin Sampson, Houston

It’s not like Sampson needs this; he has won 30 or more games in four consecutive seasons. He was within seconds of capturing the first national title of his career against Florida last season. And with the additions of three top-25 recruits, he’ll have the talent to get back to the final game of the campaign. At 70 years old, Sampson says he will always adapt, despite the changes in this game. He has proved he can do that. Yet few teams have had the five-year window he has enjoyed as a national title contender. This could be the season. And if it’s not, it could be difficult to get back to this stage with all of the real-time turbulence impacting college basketball.

CHAMPIONSHIP PREDICTIONS

National champion

Borzello: Purdue
Lunardi: Michigan
Medcalf: Houston
Paine: Houston

Final Four

Borzello: Purdue, Florida, Louisville, BYU
Lunardi: Duke, Purdue, Michigan, UConn
Medcalf: Kentucky, Houston, Purdue, BYU
Paine: Houston, Purdue, Michigan, Florida

Conference winners


AWARDS PREDICTIONS

Player of the Year

Borzello: Braden Smith, Purdue
Lunardi: Yaxel Lendeborg, Michigan
Medcalf: Braden Smith, Purdue
Paine: JT Toppin, Texas Tech

Freshman of the Year

Borzello: Darryn Peterson, Kansas
Lunardi: AJ Dybantsa, BYU
Medcalf: AJ Dybantsa, BYU
Paine: Darryn Peterson, Kansas

Newcomer of the Year

Borzello: Yaxel Lendeborg, Michigan
Lunardi: Yaxel Lendeborg, Michigan
Medcalf: Darrion Williams, NC State
Paine: Bennett Stirtz, Iowa

» Read ESPN’s top 50 newcomer rankings

All-America teams

Borzello:
Braden Smith, Purdue
Darryn Peterson, Kansas
AJ Dybantsa, BYU
Cameron Boozer, Duke
JT Toppin, Texas Tech

Lunardi:
Yaxel Lendeborg, Michigan
JT Toppin, Texas Tech
Trey Kaufman-Renn, Purdue
AJ Dybantsa, BYU
Cameron Boozer, Duke

Medcalf:
Braden Smith, Purdue
JT Toppin, Texas Tech
AJ Dybantsa, BYU
Darryn Peterson, Kansas
Cameron Boozer, Duke

Paine:
Braden Smith, Purdue
Darryn Peterson, Kansas
Yaxel Lendeborg, Michigan
JT Toppin, Texas Tech
Graham Ike, Gonzaga

» Read Jay Bilas’ All-America predictions

Coach of the Year

Borzello: Pat Kelsey, Louisville
Lunardi: Dusty May, Michigan
Medcalf: Mark Pope, Kentucky
Paine: Matt Painter, Purdue



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2026 NBA All-Star: Biggest surprises and snubs as full rosters revealed

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2026 NBA All-Star: Biggest surprises and snubs as full rosters revealed


As the calendar turns to February, the 2026 NBA All-Star Game is just two weeks away. The starters were announced on Jan. 19 and include Luka Doncic, Stephen Curry, Nikola Jokic, Victor Wembanyama and reigning MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander in the West. Jalen Brunson, Cade Cunningham, Jaylen Brown, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Tyrese Maxey were named the starters in the East.

The reserves were announced on Sunday, including Los Angeles Lakers star LeBron James and Kevin Durant in the West, as well as Donovan Mitchell and Karl-Anthony Towns in the East.

ESPN NBA Insiders Zach Kram and Kevin Pelton break down the full East and West rosters, including biggest surprises and snubs, and make their bold predictions.

Which player were you most surprised to see on the roster?

Pelton: LeBron James is the clear choice, but seeing Karl-Anthony Towns pop up was surprising given the pessimism over how he’s played this season on top of the Knicks’ recent slump. I think teammate Mikal Bridges has been New York’s second-best player after starter Jalen Brunson. Given Towns’ track record, the choice is certainly reasonable yet surprising nonetheless.

Kram: LeBron. It sounds silly to be surprised that a player who had made the last 21 All-Star games would make it 22 in a row. But given that James missed the first month and that his counting stats are down in his age-41 season, as well as the fierce competition in the Western Conference player pool, it was a surprise that his was the last name unveiled during the All-Star roster announcement.


Which player were you most surprised to see left off?

Pelton: Kawhi Leonard. Unless this is a secret part of the punishment from the NBA’s investigation into Leonard’s endorsement deal with Aspiration, I don’t get it. Leonard has been a top-10 player this season, and following a dreadful start, the LA Clippers have been one of the league’s hottest teams since Christmas. Anthony Edwards was the only West reserve I would have picked over Leonard. If I was taking a multi-time Finals MVP playing in L.A., Leonard was an easy choice over James.

Kram: Alperen Sengun was a first-time All-Star last season, has improved as a defender and has better counting stats across the board this year while helping lead the Houston Rockets to the second-best point differential in the West. New Rocket Kevin Durant was a shoo-in, but I think Sengun should have given Houston a second All-Star representative, even if that meant Devin Booker missed out and the surprising Phoenix Suns didn’t get a single player on the team.


Are we getting close to enough international All-Stars to do a normal USA/World 12 vs. 12 game?

Pelton: We might be closer to even in terms of internationals than East vs. West. Some of the answer depends on how creative the NBA is willing to get with its definition of international. Donovan Mitchell made the case recently to Andscape’s Marc J. Spears that he’d like to represent Panama, where his grandmother was born. If the NBA pushed every possible case like that or Kyrie Irving (born in Australia, though he grew up in the U.S.), they could get to 12 without diluting the meaning of being an All-Star.

Kram: There are almost enough worthy international players to round out a 12-person roster; if that were the framework this season, the eight actual international All-Stars would likely be joined by Sengun, Lauri Markkanen, Franz Wagner (despite a lack of playing time) and Joel Embiid. (Embiid was born in Cameroon but plays for Team USA internationally; the NBA could also choose to slot Towns, who was born in New Jersey but plays for the Dominican Republic, as an international representative.) Josh Giddey, OG Anunoby and Dillon Brooks have outside cases as well.

However, those players largely don’t have better All-Star cases than the ninth-through-12th-best Americans, so I wouldn’t advocate such a consequential change just yet. Let’s see how the format works with three teams (two American, one international) this year before deciding if the NBA should change the All-Star format once again.


Give us one bold prediction for the All-Star Game/mini-tournament.

Pelton: The NBA enjoys a short-term benefit from changing the format. Drafting teams and introducing a target score (aka the “Elam ending”) resulted in more competitive games initially before devolving into the defense-free play we’ve seen since. I could see the international team in particular taking things seriously and forcing their American opponents to up their game. However, I don’t see this or anything else “fixing” the All-Star Game long-term.

Kram: Victor Wembanyama takes MVP honors. Big men rarely win this award at the All-Star game — it’s gone to a guard or wing in 13 of the last 15 years, with Anthony Davis and Giannis Antetokounmpo as the lone exceptions — but Wembanyama is so competitive that he’ll gain an advantage just by taking the event seriously. In his first All-Star game last year, he led his team in scoring (11 points in seven minutes), and he and Chris Paul were disqualified for trying to exploit a loophole in the skills challenge.



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Jude Bellingham in tears after Real Madrid injury, ‘an important loss’

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Jude Bellingham in tears after Real Madrid injury, ‘an important loss’


Coach Álvaro Arbeloa admitted Jude Bellingham is “an important loss” after the midfielder was substituted just 10 minutes into Real Madrid’s 2-1 win over Rayo Vallecano on Sunday. The club confirmed on Sunday evening that the issue was with Bellingham’s left hamstring.

Kylian Mbappé scored a 100th-minute penalty to give Madrid the three points in LaLiga after a tough game which saw Rayo’s Jorge de Frutos level after Vinícius Júnior‘s early goal, before the visitors had two players sent off.

The Bernabéu crowd whistled the team pre-match — and again as they struggled during the second half — after Madrid’s midweek defeat at Benfica in the Champions League.

“We don’t know about Jude yet,” Arbeloa said in his post-match news conference, when asked about Bellingham’s injury.

The England international had gone down clutching his thigh after chasing a ball down the right wing with the game still goalless, and after being consoled by teammates, limped off the pitch, looking visibly upset and wiping away tears, as he was replaced by substitute Brahim Díaz.

“[Bellingham] has made a great effort in every game since I’ve been here,” Arbeloa said. “It’s a very important loss, but we have an extraordinary squad.”

Bellingham will now undergo tests to determine the extent of the problem.

The 22-year-old’s injury could be a major concern for England boss Thomas Tuchel ahead of Wembley friendlies against Uruguay and Japan next month.

Bellingham was one of the players — alongside Vinícius — singled out by some fans with whistles before the game, as their names were announced on the stadium loudspeakers.

Bellingham has had an injury-hit season, missing the early part of the campaign after undergoing shoulder surgery last summer.

Mbappé scores last-gasp penalty as Real Madrid edge Rayo
Mourinho on Benfica-Madrid in UCL: We got the king

“I respect the Bernabéu crowd, and I’ll always ask for their support,” Arbeloa said, when asked about the whistles.

Arbeloa insisted that Madrid hadn’t been fortunate to be given nine minutes of added time at the end of the second half, with their winning penalty being awarded in the 98th minute, and Mbappé scoring two minutes later.

“It could have been more,” Arbeloa said. “Every time visiting teams take a goal kick here, it takes a minute.”

The coach admitted that his team need to be more consistent, after a difficult start to his time in charge.

“I’m not Gandalf the White,” Arbeloa said, referring to the fictional wizard. “What I’m getting is what I wanted from my players: commitment and effort.”

Information from PA was used in this report.



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Grading Mike LaFleur’s hire, eyeing what’s next for Cards

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Grading Mike LaFleur’s hire, eyeing what’s next for Cards


TEMPE, Ariz. — After being without a head coach for almost a month, the Arizona Cardinals finally have their choice.

Arizona announced the hiring of 38-year-old Mike LaFleur on Sunday, ending a search that looked similar to previous ones by the Cardinals. As they were in 2023 when they hired Jonathan Gannon, they were once again the last team to make a hire after nine other head coaching vacancies were filled. And for the sixth time in the past 19 years, they hired a first-time NFL coach.

They also kept their pattern of alternating between offensive- and defensive-minded head coaches. LaFleur spent the past five seasons as an offensive coordinator, two with the New York Jets and three with the Los Angeles Rams. Gannon was a defensive-minded coach. He was preceded by Kliff Kingsbury, an offensive coach, who was preceded by Steve Wilks, a defensive coach, who was preceded by Bruce Arians, an offensive coach.

Arizona signed LaFleur to a five-year contract as he sets out to bring Arizona back to the playoffs for the first time since 2021.

Cardinals reporter Josh Weinfuss and NFL draft analyst Jordan Reid break down what the hire could mean for quarterback Kyler Murray and for the Cardinals’ upcoming draft. And NFL analyst Ben Solak provides a grade.

Why Mike LaFleur?

Weinfuss: LaFleur is highly regarded around the league for his offensive acumen. And he represents a branch of the Sean McVay tree, which carries a great deal of cache.

LaFleur is the fourth McVay OC to become a head coach, joining Mike’s brother Matt LaFleur of the Green Bay Packers, Kevin O’Connell of the Minnesota Vikings and Liam Coen of the Jacksonville Jaguars. The three others led their teams to the playoffs.

LaFleur runs a West Coast style of offense, which would be Murray’s third different offensive style in his eight NFL seasons — should he still be around come OTAs.


Did the Cards wait too long and miss out on the top choices?

Weinfuss: It’s hard to argue that they didn’t, but general manager Monti Ossenfort said during his postseason news conference that Arizona was going to take its time.

It might not have been a matter of waiting too long and missing out on their top choices for the Cardinals, as opposed to not being as attractive of a destination as other teams. That’s mainly because of uncertainty at quarterback, facilities that have consistently received low grades in the annual NFLPA report cards and an owner in Michael Bidwell who has been famously frugal.

Where waiting this long to hire a head coach can and, likely, will hurt the Cardinals will be in hiring a staff. With LaFleur being the last coach hired this cycle, his pool of assistants to hire has been shrinking by the day.


What does this mean for Murray’s future with the Cardinals?

Weinfuss: That’s still to be determined. Murray’s contract situation is well known: He’s under contract until 2028 and has already been guaranteed $39.8 million for 2026, so there are two possibilities for Murray: Let LaFleur pick his guy, which, as an offensive-minded head coach, may be the smartest move, or Bidwell will require Murray to stay on the roster because of all the money he’s paid him for this coming season.

LaFleur hasn’t always been dealt the easiest of hands with quarterbacks. In San Francisco, he had C.J. Beathard, Nick Mullens, Jimmy Garoppolo and Brian Hoyer, and in New York he had Zach Wilson. Murray is a step above them talent wise, but LaFleur, who had a front-row seat for Matthew Stafford in Los Angeles the last three seasons, also has worked with an elite QB.


How can LaFleur boost his roster at No. 3 overall in the draft — and will the pick come on offense?

Reid: This roster needs help in multiple spots, so the Cardinals could go in a few different directions — and focus on either side of the ball.

Right tackle is one clear hole on the roster, and either Spencer Fano (Utah) or Francis Mauigoa (Miami) would make a lot of sense. Fano has great movement traits, while Mauigoa is a physical mauler.

But the Cardinals might instead look to add an edge rusher opposite Josh Sweat. Keep an eye on the powerful Rueben Bain Jr. (Miami) and explosive David Bailey (Texas Tech). They both know how to get after the QB; both players had 71 pressures in 2025, tied for second most in the FBS.


How would you grade this hire?

Solak: B-. The Cardinals — the last team to fill its head coaching vacancy — clearly did not get their preferred candidate, as they announced the hiring of LaFleur only minutes after it was reported that Klint Kubiak was taking the Raiders job.

LaFleur is a chip off the old Kyle Shanahan block, having spent time as the 49ers’ passing game coordinator under him before taking the offensive coordinator job with Robert Saleh and the Jets. LaFleur never got the plane off the ground with Zach Wilson in New York, and will now be in charge of another young quarterback’s developmental arc, assuming Arizona moves off Kyler Murray and onto a new signal-caller.

There’s a solid ceiling here, as LaFleur is from a prolific coaching tree. But it’s hard to get too excited about what feels like a very run-of-the-mill hire.



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