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MPC Next Week: Will RBI Still Cut Rates After Robust GDP Numbers? Analysts Weigh In

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MPC Next Week: Will RBI Still Cut Rates After Robust GDP Numbers? Analysts Weigh In


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India’s GDP grew 8.2 percent in Q2 FY2025-26, driven by strong secondary and tertiary sectors, with experts expecting a possible RBI rate cut.

RBI May Consider Rate Cut in December as GDP Jumps 8.2% and Inflation Hits Record Low

RBI MPC Meet, India GDP Growth: Experts are now weighing the possibility of a repo rate cut at the Reserve Bank of India’s next Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting scheduled for December 3–5, 2025. The expectation has strengthened after India posted a robust 8.2 per cent GDP growth in the July–September quarter of FY2025-26, far above market estimates.

Real GDP growth for the first half of FY26 stood at 8 per cent, compared with 6.1 per cent in the same period last year. At the same time, headline inflation dropped to 0.25 per cent in October — the lowest in the current CPI series — and remains comfortably within the RBI’s tolerance band.

Upasna Bhardwaj, Chief Economist, Kotak Mahindra Bank says that despite the high real GDP growth, they retain their expectations of 25 bps of rate cut in the upcoming policy as inflation trajectory remains benign.

“The sharply higher than expected 2QFY26 GDP was broad based but comes on the back of a very low deflator. The single digit nominal GDP growth continues to signal tepid underlying activity,” Bhardwaj added.

Aditi Nayar, Chief Economist, ICRA noted that the probability of a rate cut in the December 2025 MPC review has certainly eased, with the Q2 FY2026 GDP growth exceeding 8% and he series-low CPI inflation print for October 2025.

Nayar said that the upside surprise in the Q2 GDP growth print was driven by services, even as the agriculture and industrial sectors largely reported prints along expected lines. “The 9.7% surge in the public administration, defence and other services segment in Q2 FY2026 was quite surprising given that the Government of India’s (GoI’s) non-interest revenue, Nayar added.

The India’s GDP trajectory is also being supported by robust consumption, and a planned decrease in MPC rates along with a softening trend of CPI and WPI inflation, according to Ranjeet Mehta, CEO & Secretary General, PHDCCI.

Rajeev Juneja, President of PHDCCI added that the tertiary sector’s rise was the main driver of this expansion, followed by the secondary sector. For Q2 FY 2026, the manufacturing sector expanded by 9.1% (Y-o-Y), while the tertiary sector had strong growth of 9.2%. Within the tertiary sector, the financial, real estate & professional services grew at 10.2% (Y-o-Y) for the same period. This trend points towards India’s steady and robust development, boosted by structural policy reforms by the government”, said Mr. Juneja.

India’s GDP expansion surpassed all expectations to grow at 8.2 per cent in the July-September Quarter (Q2) of Financial Year (FY) 2025-26, compared to the growth rate of 5.6 per cent during the same quarter of FY2024-25. The Secondary and Tertiary Sectors have played a critical role in boosting the Real GDP in H1 of FY2025-26.

Varun Yadav

Varun Yadav

Varun Yadav is a Sub Editor at News18 Business Digital. He writes articles on markets, personal finance, technology, and more. He completed his post-graduation diploma in English Journalism from the Indian Inst…Read More

Varun Yadav is a Sub Editor at News18 Business Digital. He writes articles on markets, personal finance, technology, and more. He completed his post-graduation diploma in English Journalism from the Indian Inst… Read More

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Serial rail fare evader faces jail over 112 unpaid tickets

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Serial rail fare evader faces jail over 112 unpaid tickets


One of Britain’s most prolific rail fare dodgers could face jail after admitting dozens of travel offences.

Charles Brohiri, 29, pleaded guilty to travelling without buying a ticket a total of 112 times over a two-year period, Westminster Magistrates’ Court heard.

He could be ordered to pay more than £18,000 in unpaid fares and legal costs, the court was told.

He will be sentenced next month.

District Judge Nina Tempia warned Brohiri “could face a custodial sentence because of the number of offences he has committed”.

He pleaded guilty to 76 offences on Thursday.

It came after he was convicted in his absence of 36 charges at a previous hearing.

During Thursday’s hearing, Judge Tempia dismissed a bid by Brohiri’s lawyers to have the 36 convictions overturned.

They had argued the prosecutions were unlawful because they had not been brought by a qualified legal professional.

But Judge Tempia rejected the argument, saying there had been “no abuse of this court’s process”.



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John Swinney under fire over ‘smallest tax cut in history’ after Scottish Budget

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John Swinney under fire over ‘smallest tax cut in history’ after Scottish Budget



John Swinney has been pressed over whether this week’s Scottish Budget gives some workers the “smallest tax cut in history” – with Tory leader Russell Findlay branding the reduction “miserly” and “insulting”.

The Scottish Conservative leader challenged the First Minister after Tuesday’s Holyrood Budget effectively cut taxes for lower earners, by increasing the threshold for the basic and intermediate bands of income tax.

But Mr Findlay said that would leave workers at most £31.75 a year better off – saying this amounts to a saving of just £61p a week

“That wouldn’t even buy you a bag of peanuts,” the Scottish Tory leader said.

“John Swinney’s Budget might even have broken a world record, because a Scottish Government tax adviser says it ‘maybe the smallest tax cut in history’.”

Raising the “miserly cut” at First Minister’s Questions in the Scottish Parliament, Mr Findlay demanded to know if the SNP leader believed his “insulting tax cut will actually help Scotland’s struggling households”.

The attack came as the Tory accused the SNP government of increasing taxes on higher earners, with its freeze on higher income tax thresholds, which will pull more Scots into these brackets.

This is needed to pay for the “SNP’s out of control, unaffordable benefits bill”, the Conservative added.

Mr Findlay said: “The Scottish Conservatives will not back and cannot back a Budget that does nothing to help Scotland’s workers and businesses.

“It hammers people with higher taxes to fund a bloated benefits system.”

Hitting out at Labour – whose leader Anas Sarwar has already declared they will not block the government’s Budget – Mr Findlay said: “It is absolutely mind-blowing that Labour and other so-called opposition parties will let this SNP boorach of a budget pass.

“Don’t the people of Scotland deserve lower taxes, fairer benefits and a government focused on economic growth?”

Mr Swinney said the Budget “delivers on the priorities of the people of Scotland” by “strengthening our National Health Service and supporting people and businesses with the challenges of the cost of living”.

He insisted income tax decisions in the Budget would mean that in 2026-27 “55% of Scottish taxpayers are now expected to pay less income tax than if they lived in England”.

The First Minister went on to say that showed “the people of Scotland have a Government that is on their side”.

Referring to polls putting his party on course to win the Holyrood elections in May, the SNP leader added that “all the current indications show the people of Scotland want to have this Government here for the long term”.

Benefits funding is “keeping children out of poverty”, he told MSPs, adding the Budget contained a “range of measures” that would build on existing support.

The First Minister said: “What that is a demonstration of is a Government that is on the side of the people of Scotland and I am proud of the measures we set out in the Budget on Tuesday.”

Meanwhile he said the Tories wanted to make tax cuts that would cost £1 billion, with “not a scrap of detail about how that would be delivered”.

With the weekly leaders’ question time clash coming less than 48 hours after the draft 2026-27 Budget was unveiled, the First Minister also faced questions from Scottish Labour’s Anas Sarwar, who insisted that the proposals “lacks ambition for Scotland”.

Pressing his SNP rival, the Scottish Labour leader said: “While he brags about his £6 a year tax cut for the lowest paid, one million Scots including nurses, teachers and police officers face being forced to pay more.

“Even his own tax adviser says this is a political stunt. So why does John Swinney believe that someone earning £33,500 has the broadest shoulders and therefore should pay more tax in Scotland?”

Mr Swinney, however, said that many public sector workers would be better off in Scotland.

He told the Scottish Labour leader: “A band six nurse at the bottom of the scale will take home an additional £1,994 after tax compared to the same band in England.

“A qualified teacher at the bottom of the band will take home £6,365 more after tax in Scotland than the equivalent in England. There are the facts for Mr Sarwar.”



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BP cautions over ‘weak’ oil trading and reveals up to £3.7bn in write-downs

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BP cautions over ‘weak’ oil trading and reveals up to £3.7bn in write-downs



BP has warned it expects to book up to five billion dollars (£3.7 billion) in write-downs across its gas and low-carbon energy division as it also said oil trading had been weak in its final quarter.

The oil giant joined FTSE 100 rival Shell, after it also last week cautioned over a weaker performance from trading, which comes amid a drop in the cost of crude.

BP said Brent crude prices averaged 63.73 dollars per barrel in the fourth quarter of last year compared with 69.13 dollars a barrel in the previous three months.

Oil prices have slumped in recent weeks, partly driven lower due to US President Donald Trump’s move to oust and detain Venezuela’s leader and lay claim to crude in the region, leading to fears of a supply glut.

In its update ahead of full-year results, BP also said it expects to book a four billion dollar (£3 billion) to five billion dollar (£3.7 billion) impairment in its so-called transition businesses, largely relating to its gas and low-carbon energy division.

But it said further progress had been made in slashing debts, with its net debt falling to between 22 billion and 23 billion dollars (£16.4 billion to £17.1 billion) at the end of 2025, down from 26.1 billion dollars (£19.4 billion) at the end of September.

It comes after the firm’s surprise move last month to appoint Woodside Energy boss Meg O’Neill as its new chief executive as Murray Auchincloss stepped down after less than two years in the role.

Ms O’Neill will start in the role on April 1, with Carol Howle, current executive vice president of supply, trading and shipping at BP, acting as chief executive on an interim basis until the new boss joins.

Ms O’Neill’s appointment has made history as she will become the first woman to run BP – and also the first to head up a top five global oil company – as well as being the first ever outsider to take on the post at BP.

Shares in BP fell 1% in morning trading on Wednesday after the latest update.



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