Of all the teams vying for one of the 48 spots in the newly expanded 2026 FIFA World Cup field, it is not an exaggeration to say that San Marino are literally the worst, ranking 210th out of 210 eligible teams in FIFA’s men’s world rankings.

With a population of just over 34,000 — making it the fifth-smallest recognized country in the world — San Marino is actually the larger but significantly less famous of two microstates within Italy (as far as we know, Vatican City does not have a FIFA-recognized squad). Thus far, in their quest to play for the world’s soccer championship in North America next summer, La Serenissima have lost every one of their seven World Cup qualifying matches, scoring just one goal and allowing 32.

So, you would be forgiven for assuming that all hope is lost for San Marino to play in the next World Cup — but that is not actually so. For it to happen, though, there will have to be a very specific chain of events … potentially culminating in San Marino having to lose their final World Cup qualifying match by as many goals as possible.

The unlikeliest series of events

European teams are awarded 16 of the 48 World Cup bids. After a lengthy round-robin qualifying format, which ends on Nov. 18, the first-place finishers in each of the 12 groups earn an automatic bid. The 12 second-place finishers each advance to a 16-team playoff with the remaining four UEFA bids still up for grabs.

Here’s where it gets a bit complicated. The final four spots in that playoff are reserved for the highest-ranked teams who won one of the 14 UEFA Nations League groups back in 2024. As fate would have it, San Marino actually won their three-team Nations League group for the 2024-25 season, notching two wins over Liechtenstein (another European microstate) and holding off Gibraltar with a draw and a loss.

San Marino are ranked 14th out of these 14 Nations League teams, so in order for one of these four playoff spots to fall into their laps, they need 10 of the 13 teams ranked ahead of them in this “winners list” to not need the bid. In other words, if — and only if — at least 10 of those countries finish first (and directly qualify for the World Cup) or second (and already qualify for a playoff spot) in their World Cup groups. And, this is where things start to get messy.

As we enter the final week of qualifying games, eight teams that could have earned Nations League bids have already qualified for the World Cup and, therefore, don’t need them. This means that San Marino’s hopes basically rely on having just two other countries pull out a second-place finish in their groups.

If Nations League group winner Northern Ireland beat Slovakia in their World Cup qualifier on Friday, they would move into second in UEFA World Cup qualifying Group A and be in very good shape to stay there. Then, on Saturday, if Romania — yet another Nations League group winner — defeat Bosnia and Herzegovina, those two countries would be tied for second in UEFA World Cup qualifying Group H — a group which also includes San Marino.

Should this sequence of events come to pass, it will set up the scenario where, when San Marino plays Romania on Nov. 18, La Serenissima will be incentivized to lose by as many goals as possible to ensure the Romanians move on in the traditional World Cup qualifying process and abandon their slot in the Nations League playoff, allowing San Marino to take that spot.

It’s the kind of dizzying logistical nightmare that FIFA has been trying to avoid since the “Disgrace of Gijón,” when West Germany and Austria allegedly colluded in their final group stage match to allow both teams to advance in the 1982 World Cup, subsequently eliminating Algeria. That match catalyzed FIFA to institute the now familiar rule that all final World Cup group stage matches be played simultaneously.

What are the sportsbooks thinking?

If San Marino does find themselves with incentive to lose to Romania by as much as possible, though, it begs the question: How would sportsbooks make lines for the match?

For starters, it should be noted that World Cup qualifying handle is not currently a popular betting commodity for soccer, let alone compared to the rest of the menu at sportsbooks: BetMGM soccer trader Tom Pullin told ESPN over email that “interest in World Cup qualifying has been good, but not as high as regular league football like the Premier League.” Further, he said that San Marino’s matches don’t stand out unless they play a high-profile team.

In these World Cup qualifiers, San Marino have, predictably, not been given a chance by bookmakers. At ESPN BET, San Marino’s shortest odds to win a match were against Cyprus on Oct. 12 when they were +1300 on the three-way money line. Their longest odds were an astounding 100-1 against Austria just one match prior on Oct. 9. On the flip side, Cyprus were -600 to win, while Austria were not even listed because the odds were too short.

The big-money bettors who did tune in for these matches also predictably faded San Marino at every turn, according to BetMGM and DraftKings. However, Caesars Sportsbook’s head of soccer and UK sports Mark Bickerdike said that many bettors “love a big underdog story,” so the book racked up solid liability on lots of smaller wagers at long odds.

Which brings us back to the potential “doomsday scenario” on Nov. 18. Given San Marino are already as low as can be in the power ratings, sportsbooks will likely be motivated to list Romania as short as humanly possible, with the possibility of not even listing a money line for them at all, assuming San Marino are incentivized to get demolished.

“We would usually treat San Marino matches slightly differently given the disparity between them and most of the other teams,” Pullin said. “For a potential hypothetical situation like you described, the trading team will use market/bets they field as a guide to where prices should be with consideration to the possible higher goal scoring in the initial price.”

But for the scenario to even come to fruition, Northern Ireland (+310) will have to upset Slovakia (EVEN), and Romania (+185) will have to upset Bosnia and Herzegovina (+140). A parlay of those two results from the three-way money lines yields +1069 odds, per ESPN BET lines.

“Along with the rest of the industry, we are waiting until we know the outcome of the Bosnia-Romania game on Saturday before deciding on releasing prices for the Romania-San Marino fixture,” Bickerdike said over email. “It will be a unique scenario if it plays out.”

But should the extraordinary happen and San Marino actually do end up with a chance to advance in World Cup qualifying by losing a match spectacularly, it sets up an absolutely epic dilemma. FIFA rules, of course, prohibit teams from purposely losing matches, but given how poorly things have already gone for San Marino in World Cup qualifying — one of their matches against Austria ended in a 10-0 drubbing — it would be difficult to prove that La Serenissima did anything out of the ordinary at all.

This season’s November slate of men’s college basketball is as loaded as it has ever been, which means notable fluctuation in the early-season rankings. The biggest risers over the first 10 days were Arizona and Alabama, as both programs leveraged their strengths to secure huge road wins over top-five opponents Florida and St. John’s, respectively.

There were questions about whether Arizona had enough shooting on its roster heading into the season — the Wildcats did take only five 3-point shots against the reigning champs, making two of them. But they were absolutely dominant around the rim and at the free throw line, with their 81 points between the two proving that their lack of perimeter shooting isn’t much of a factor.

As for Alabama, it was clear the Crimson Tide had elite guards, but it wasn’t clear whether they had the frontcourt balance to make another deep run in March. Against St. John’s, though, their guards were enough. Labaron Philon Jr., Aden Holloway and Latrell Wrightsell combined for 63 points, 10 assists and eight 3-pointers, while 6-foot-10 wing Taylor Bol Bowen had four of the team’s 14 offensive rebounds to go with 17 points.

We did have Louisville right outside the top five in our final preseason top 25, so while the Cardinals’ impressive win over Kentucky doesn’t improve their ranking much, Pat Kelsey’s team — specifically its guards — look every bit like a potential Final Four team.

Ditto for Illinois, which knocked off Texas Tech.

Now let’s dive into ESPN’s top 25 based on the first 10 days of action.

Preseason ranking: 1

Purdue doesn’t lose the No. 1 spot, despite struggling for much of Friday’s 87-77 win over Oakland — the Boilermakers still won both of their first two games by double-digits despite injured All-American forward Trey Kaufman-Renn yet to suit up. Braden Smith‘s assist numbers and Fletcher Loyer‘s scoring exploits have impressed, but freshman forward Jack Benter has been the surprise, averaging 11.0 points, 6.5 rebounds and 2.5 assists while hitting six 3s through two games.

Next seven days: at Alabama (Nov. 13), vs. Akron (Nov. 16)

Preseason ranking: 3

It has been business as usual for Houston so far, holding its three opponents to an average of 50 points. Kelvin Sampson doesn’t typically lean heavily on freshmen, but he’s starting two this season — and both are performing. Chris Cenac Jr. has hit double figures in scoring and rebounding in two games, and Kingston Flemings has been fantastic. Flemings had 20 points on 8-for-10 shooting against Towson, then followed it up Wednesday with 19 points and 9 assists on 8-for-12 shooting against Oakland.

Next seven days: at Auburn (Nov. 16)

Preseason ranking: 4

UConn rolled through its first three opponents, beating New Haven, UMass Lowell and Columbia by an average of 38 points. The schedule is about to get much more difficult, with BYU and Arizona in the coming week, followed by Illinois, Kansas and Florida between late November and early December. After sitting out the opener because of a hamstring injury, Tarris Reed Jr. has been dominant on the interior. He’s averaging 19.2 points, 10.0 rebounds and 3.5 blocks.

Next seven days: vs. BYU in Boston (Nov. 15), vs. Arizona (Nov. 19)

Preseason ranking: 13

Koa Peat is getting most of the plaudits in the wake of Arizona’s season-opening win over Florida, and justifiably so, considering his incredible debut against the reigning champs. But Jaden Bradley‘s senior-year leap might be even more important for the Wildcats. He has taken a backseat nearly every season in college, dating to his complementary role as a freshman at Alabama. But Tommy Lloyd is leaning on Bradley, and he’s responding, with his 27 points and five assists against Florida the highlight so far.

Next seven days: at UCLA (Nov. 14), at UConn (Nov. 19)

Preseason ranking: 6

Louisville’s first 28-30 minutes against Kentucky on Tuesday was as impressive a stretch as we’ve seen from any team this season. The Cardinals simply overwhelmed the Wildcats with their pace, shooting, depth and aggressiveness. And it doubled as Mikel Brown Jr.’s coming-out party. The star freshman finished with 29 points, 5 assists, 3 3-pointers and only 1 turnover, upping his averages to 19.3 points and 6.7 assists through three games.

Who does Mikel Brown Jr’s game remind you of? 🤔

The Louisville freshman dropped 29 PTS to beat No. 9 Kentucky 🤯 pic.twitter.com/m3AnQcKb7e

— ESPN (@espn) November 12, 2025

Next seven days: vs. Ohio (Nov. 15)

Preseason ranking: 19

What Alabama’s guards did to St. John’s last Saturday was something we have rarely seen since Rick Pitino took over in Queens. The Crimson Tide were consistently able to generate their own shots off the dribble, limiting the impact of the Red Storm’s rotations. Philon was incredible, finishing with 25 points and three assists while making two 3-pointers, with many of his shots coming in contested situations that required impressive body control.

Next seven days: vs. Purdue (Nov. 13), vs. Illinois in Chicago (Nov. 19)

Preseason ranking: 7

Entering the season, BYU’s perimeter trio of AJ Dybantsa, Richie Saunders and Robert Wright III looked to be one of the elite offensive groups in the country. And it seems to be translating on the court. All three are averaging at least 18 points and have each taken between 39 and 43 shots. Dybantsa and Wright have been really difficult for defenders to keep out of the lane, and Saunders — despite the increased usage competition — is actually taking more shots than last season. It will be interesting to see how UConn approaches trying to limit them Saturday.

Next seven days: vs. UConn in Boston (Nov. 15)

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AJ Dybantsa throws down putback slam

AJ Dybantsa throws down putback slam

Preseason ranking: 16

We were ready to move Illinois up even before its win over Texas Tech on Tuesday, simply because the Illini looked like one of the country’s truly elite offenses. But the win over Tech — notably without Tomislav Ivisic — led to a significant rise in the rankings. Kylan Boswell is quietly breaking out over the first few games, averaging 21.0 points and shooting 53% from 3-point range, while also establishing himself as one of college basketball’s premier defensive guards.

Next seven days: vs. Colgate (Nov. 14), vs. Alabama (Nov. 19)

Preseason ranking: 2

Florida is only three games into its title defense, and while it’s far too early to draw any real conclusions, there are real concerns developing — particularly on the perimeter. The Gators’ 3-point shooting has been abysmal through the first week and a half, ranking in the bottom 30 nationally at just over 21% from beyond the arc while shooting 30 3s per game. They are turning it over at a fairly high rate, including 18 times against Florida State, and are allowing teams to get into the teeth into the defense far too easily.

Next seven days: vs. Miami in Jacksonville (Nov. 16)

Preseason ranking: 8

Though star transfer Yaxel Lendeborg hasn’t quite made his presence yet, UCLA transfer Aday Mara has been one of the most impressive two-way bigs in the country thus far. The 7-foot-3 Spain native just had 18 points, 13 rebounds, 6 assists and 5 blocks against Wake Forest, completely changing the game at both ends of the court. That was on the heels of 12 points, 12 rebounds and 5 blocks against Oakland. Mara is looking very much like an NBA player.

Next seven days: at TCU (Nov. 14), vs. Middle Tennessee (Nov. 19)

Preseason ranking: 10

Cameron Boozer‘s first-week performances weren’t as eye-popping as those of, say, Arizona’s Peat or North Carolina’s Caleb Wilson, but he’s averaging 18.3 points, 9.7 rebounds and 4.0 assists through three games while getting to the free throw line nearly eight times a game. They’re not the numbers Boozer was posting in Duke’s exhibition games, but the Blue Devils haven’t needed him to reach those heights yet. And when they did need him to rise to the occasion to overcome a narrow first-half deficit against Texas, Boozer responded with 15 points in the second. It’s clear he’ll still be near the top of ranks when it comes to freshman production.

Next seven days: vs. Indiana State (Nov. 14), vs. Kansas in New York (Nov. 18)

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Cam Boozer fights off defender for impressive and-1

Cam Boozer fights off defender for impressive and-1

Preseason ranking: 5

St. John’s point guard issues received plenty of attention in the aftermath of the Red Storm’s loss to Alabama, but an offense that scored 96 points with a 58% assist rate arguably wasn’t the main culprit. It was a hugely disappointing performance at the other end of the court. The Tide scored 103 points, becoming the first nonconference opponent to score 100 against St. John’s since 2004. They also scored 1.22 points per possession, more than the most (1.19) the Red Storm gave up in a game last season.

Next seven days: vs. William & Mary (Nov. 15)

Preseason ranking: 20

Gonzaga had arguably the most dominant back-to-back performances we’ve seen this season, beating two potential NCAA tournament teams in Oklahoma and Creighton by a combined 52 points. Though it has been a remarkably balanced effort — four different players scored in double figures in each win — Graham Ike adding a perimeter threat to his game while still maintaining his usual around-the-rim dominance is worth noting. He made all four 3-pointers against Creighton after making only 19 3s in his previous 115 college games.

Next seven days: at Arizona State (Nov. 14), vs. Southern Utah (Nov. 17)

Preseason ranking: 11

We’ve said before that there might not have been a better player — besides Cooper Flagg — over the second half of last season than JT Toppin. And after sitting out the opening game of the season, Toppin has picked up where he left off. He had 31 points, 14 rebounds, 4 assists and 3 steals against Sam Houston State, then went for 35 points, 11 rebounds, 3 assists, 3 blocks and 3 steals in Tuesday’s loss to Illinois. His defensive responsibilities might be lessened once elite shot blocker Luke Bamgboye gets healthy. Now the question is whether that could make him even more effective on the offensive end.

Next seven days: vs. Milwaukee (Nov. 14)

Preseason ranking: 9

The best defender on Kentucky’s roster has yet to suit up, with Jayden Quaintance still out after last February’s ACL injury, and the Wildcats’ deficiencies in that department were exposed by Louisville on Tuesday. It was just far too easy for the Cardinals to get open looks or get to the free throw line. The Wildcats aren’t a defense that forces turnovers and they don’t offer elite rim protection without Quaintance, which allowed Louisville to dictate the terms at that end of the court. The Cardinals ended up scoring more than 1.25 points per possession.

Next seven days: vs. Eastern Illinois (Nov. 14), vs. Michigan State in New York (Nov. 18)

Preseason ranking: 25

North Carolina’s clearance of guard Luka Bogavac hours before the first game of the season was already good news for the Tar Heels, but it has taken on added importance in the wake of Seth Trimble‘s injury, with the senior guard out indefinitely because of a broken forearm. Bogavac, of Montenegro, was one of the best players in the Adriatic League last season, and he took Trimble’s spot in the starting lineup for UNC’s game against Radford on Tuesday and finished with 19 points and five assists.

Next seven days: vs. North Carolina Central (Nov. 14), vs. Navy (Nov. 18)

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Luka Bogavac is automatic from 3-point land

Luka Bogavac nails the 3 vs. Radford Highlanders

Preseason ranking: 12

It wasn’t clear whether Darius Acuff Jr. and Meleek Thomas would have a high enough usage rate to both be among the best freshman guards in the country before the season tipped, but through three games, the five-star recruits look like the nation’s best freshman backcourt and one of the most explosive offensive duos. Acuff is averaging 19.7 points and 4.7 assists, and Thomas — who has started only one of three games — is putting up 18.0 points, 6.0 rebounds and 5.0 assists.

Next seven days: vs. Samford (Nov. 14), vs. Winthrop (Nov. 18)

Preseason ranking: 15

The personnel might change, but the culture and system at Iowa State under T.J. Otzelberger stays the same. Through three games, the Cyclones are already showing signs of yet another elite defense in Ames. They held Fairleigh Dickinson and Grambling State to fewer than 0.83 points per possession, then forced Mississippi State into turnovers on more than 34% of the Bulldogs’ possessions. Tamin Lipsey has clearly recovered from his preseason knee injury, averaging 17.7 points, 5.7 assists and 4.3 steals with only three turnovers in three games.

Next seven days: vs. Stonehill (Nov. 17)

Preseason ranking: 14

Mick Cronin was clearly not thrilled with UCLA’s start to the season, telling reporters after the Bruins’ season-opening win over Eastern Washington that “there are so many mistakes, I’d like to fire myself” in regard to their defense. Cronin has to be pleased with the performance of key players he needed to break out, though. Michigan State transfer Xavier Booker averaged 14.5 points, 6.0 rebounds and 3.0 blocks through two games, and Trent Perry is averaging 12.3 points and just had nine assists to two turnovers against West Georgia.

Next seven days: vs. Arizona (Nov. 14), vs. Sacramento State (Nov. 18)

Preseason ranking: 18

Nate Ament has been as good as advertised — his passing might be even better than expected — and Ja’Kobi Gillespie has bounced back after a subpar opening game, but the surprise for the Vols so far has been redshirt sophomore big man J.P. Estrella. He played double-figure minutes three times as a freshman and played only three games in 2024-25 before shutting it down because of a foot injury. But through three games this season, he’s averaging 17.3 points and 8.7 rebounds while shooting 75% from the field.

Next seven days: vs. Rice (Nov. 17)

Preseason ranking: Unranked

It wasn’t the prettiest performance, and it didn’t do much to answer the questions about their perimeter issues, but the Spartans gutting out a three-point win over a talented Arkansas team despite shooting 1-for-14 from 3 was a nice résumé booster. And Michigan State looks potentially dominant in the paint: Four different frontcourt players scored in double figures in their first two games, and the team posted a 47.5% offensive rebound rate.

Next seven days: vs. Kentucky in New York (Nov. 18)

Preseason ranking: 17

Auburn has responded well to its opening-night overtime struggles against Bethune-Cookman, blowing the doors off Merrimack and Wofford in its past two games. Tahaad Pettiford has yet to really get going, averaging 11.0 points and shooting just 27.9% from the field and 17.4% from 3-point range, but Keyshawn Hall‘s production has translated seamlessly from UCF to Auburn. He has scored at least 20 points in all three games while averaging 11.0 rebounds.

Next seven days: vs. Houston (Nov. 16), vs. Jackson State (Nov. 19)

Preseason ranking: 21

It hasn’t been the stiffest of competition, but early returns on the potential Nolan Winter breakout season are positive. He opened with 17 points and 12 rebounds against Campbell, went for 12 points against Northern Illinois then had a 19-point, 10-rebound, 3-block effort in Tuesday’s win over Ball State. It will be interesting to see how he performs next Friday against Keba Keita and BYU, but Winter’s combination of defensive improvement and offensive efficiency is worth watching.

Next seven days: vs. SIU Edwardsville (Nov. 17)

Preseason ranking: 24

So far, it appears that the offseason hype about a potential Paul McNeil Jr. breakout season was real. After averaging 4.2 points in 8.6 minutes last season, he has quickly cemented himself as a consistent shotmaker on the perimeter for Will Wade. McNeil is averaging 20.3 points through three games, making 13 3-pointers at a 46.4% clip over that span. NBA evaluators are also taking notice: McNeil debuted at No. 56 in ESPN’s first 2026 NBA draft big board.

Next seven days: vs. VCU (Nov. 17)

Preseason ranking: Unranked

Ohio State’s offense has been fantastic so far, and Bruce Thornton looks as if he’ll be one of the most productive guards in the country. He put up 38 points on 14-for-17 shooting with 5 rebounds and 5 assists against Purdue Fort Wayne last Friday. Per ESPN Research, Thornton is only the second Division I player to hit those marks in the past five years — and the first Big Ten player to do so in the past 30 seasons. There’s a runway over the next couple of weeks for the Buckeyes to generate some real momentum.

Next seven days: vs. Notre Dame (Nov. 16)

Dropped out: Kansas Jayhawks (No. 22), Creighton Bluejays (No. 23)

Brazil coach Carlo Ancelotti has denied that he told Endrick to leave Real Madrid in the next transfer window if he wants to play at the 2026 World Cup.

The Brazil forward is set to join Lyon on loan in January, sources told ESPN Brasil, and he has already spoken to new manager Paulo Fonseca.

Both clubs and the player have had a verbal agreement for the past two weeks, with Lyon covering half of his salary.

Endrick, 19, is in search of first-team football and has played only 11 minutes this season for Madrid.

“He’s a very important player because he’s one of the talents to have come out of Brazilian football,” Ancelotti told Diario AS.

“We’re evaluating him. But it’s not true that I said Endrick should leave Real Madrid to go to the World Cup. That’s a matter between Real Madrid and the player. He needs to talk to the club and make the best decision for himself and for Real Madrid.”

Endrick, who joined Madrid shortly after his 18th birthday in July 2024, enjoyed a promising first season with Los Blancos under Ancelotti, scoring seven goals in 37 appearances.

He has struggled for first-team action since Xabi Alonso took charge of Madrid after Ancelotti’s departure in May and his chances of playing in next year’s World Cup have diminished.

Endrick, who made his Brazil debut in November 2023, has been left out of Brazil’s squad for the fourth international window in a row.

Ancelotti said earlier this week that it was “important” for Endrick to “get back to playing and show his qualities.”

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“Yes, I spoke with him [Endrick] at the beginning of this season,” Ancelotti told Placar.

“He was injured, but now he’s fine, back, and he has to think with his entourage about what’s best. Talk to the club, to see what’s best for him.

“Endrick is very young, this won’t be his last World Cup. He could play in the 2026 World Cup, because he has the quality for it, but he could also be in the 2030 World Cup, or the 2034 World Cup, and maybe even the 2038 World Cup. I believe it’s important for him to get back to playing and show his qualities.”