Business
Navratri, GST cuts spark festive shopping boom: Digital transactions jump to Rs 11 lakh crore; see near 10-fold surge – The Times of India
India witnessed an unprecedented rise in digital transactions as the Navratri festival season coincided with the biggest GST cuts on high-value consumer items. According to RBI data, total electronic payments soared to Rs 11.31 lakh crore on Monday, nearly 10 times the Rs 1.18 lakh crore recorded the previous day.The momentum continued on Tuesday, with digital payments totaling Rs 11.19 lakh crore, signaling optimism for the festive season. Demand is expected to remain strong throughout Navratri and leading up to Diwali.The recent GST reforms, which halved the number of tax slabs and reduced levies on discretionary items such as cars, motorcycles, and home appliances, have significantly boosted consumer spending. Automotive companies are expected to be the biggest beneficiaries, with levies on many cars reduced to 18% from 28%, prompting increased dealer and consumer bookings.“The conclusion of Shraddh period and the onset of Navratri, coupled with recent GST reductions and deep ecommerce discounts, have significantly lifted consumer sentiment,” said Anand Kumar Bajaj, founder and CEO of PayNearby.“We’re seeing a sharp uptick in spending, particularly on apparel and home appliances, signalling strong festive demand and renewed economic momentum,” he added, a quoted by ET.The surge was particularly noticeable on digital platforms such as UPI, credit cards, debit cards, NEFT, IMPS, and RTGS. During Flipkart and Amazon’s annual 10-day festival sales, credit card spending on ecommerce platforms rose six-fold to Rs 10,411 crore, while debit card spending tripled to Rs 814 crore, highlighting strong demand for high-value purchases.“Following the recent GST relief and the positive market sentiment around it, we’ve seen a noticeable surge in customer engagement and spending. In just the past couple of days, demand has grown by nearly 20%,” said Bikram Yadav, head of credit cards at RBL Bank.“With low inflation, GST relief and upbeat consumer sentiment, we anticipate strong festive spending across categories such as ecommerce, travel and electronics,” added Bikram.Among all digital channels, the largest value of transactions occurred via RTGS, the preferred method for high-value payments, which jumped to Rs 8.14 lakh crore from Rs 17,166 crore a day earlier. Large purchases such as cars, typically booked by dealers and end customers, are often routed through RTGS, reported ET.
Business
Piyush Goyal Dismisses Rahul Gandhi’s Farmer Meet Video, Rebuts ‘Fake Narrative’ On India-US Trade Deal
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The minister offered a detailed reality check to counter what he termed ‘Rahul ji’s fakery’
Goyal reiterated that Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s policies are intrinsically linked to farmer welfare. (File Photo: PTI)
Union Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal has accused Congress leader Rahul Gandhi of orchestrating a “fake narrative” aimed at provoking India’s farming community. Responding to a video released on social media by the Leader of the Opposition on Friday, Goyal dismissed the interaction as a stage-managed performance featuring Congress activists masquerading as genuine farmer leaders. He asserted that the dialogue followed a predetermined script designed to mislead the public regarding the safeguards in the recent India-US trade deal.
Rahul Gandhi has alleged that “any trade deal that takes away the livelihood of farmers or weakens the food security of the country is anti-farmer”. He was pointing to the recently concluded India-US framework agreement for bilateral trade, which is expected to be signed after tweaks by the end of March.
Piyush Goyal offered a detailed reality check to counter what he termed “Rahul ji’s fakery”, placing on record that the Narendra Modi government has fully protected the interests of annadatas, fishermen, MSMEs, and artisans. The minister categorically clarified that sensitive crops like soyameal and maize have been granted no concessions whatsoever in the agreement, ensuring that domestic farmers remain shielded from competitive pressure. He criticised the opposition for repeating “baseless allegations” in an attempt to instill unnecessary fear among the rural population.
Addressing specific claims regarding apple and walnut imports, the minister provided a technical breakdown of the protectionist measures in place. He noted that while India already imports approximately 550,000 tonnes of apples annually due to high domestic demand, the new US deal does not allow unlimited entry. Instead, a strict quota has been established, far below current import levels, and subject to a Minimum Import Price (MIP) of Rs 80 per kg. With an additional duty of Rs 25, the landed cost of US apples will be roughly Rs 105 per kg—significantly higher than the current average landed cost of Rs 75 per kg from other nations—thereby ensuring Indian growers are not undercut. Similarly, for walnuts, the US has been offered a modest quota of 13,000 metric tonnes against India’s total annual import requirement of 60,000 metric tonnes, making it impossible for the deal to harm local producers.
Goyal also took a swipe at the historical record of the Congress party, pointing out the irony of its current stance. He reminded the public that during the Congress-led UPA era, India imported nearly $20 billion worth of agricultural products, including dairy items, which the current administration has strictly excluded from the US pact. He challenged Rahul Gandhi to explain his “betrayal of farmers” and questioned how much longer the opposition intended to peddle fabricated stories.
Concluding with the slogan “Kisan Surakshit Desh Viksit”, Goyal reiterated that Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s policies are intrinsically linked to farmer welfare. He maintained that the India-US agreement is a balanced framework that opens new markets for Indian exports like basmati rice and spices while keeping the nation’s agricultural backbone secure.
February 14, 2026, 05:29 IST
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The stock market has been quick to punish software firms and other perceived losers from the artificial intelligence boom in recent weeks, but credit markets are likely to be the next place where AI disruption risk shows up, according to UBS analyst Matthew Mish.
Tens of billions of dollars in corporate loans are likely to default over the next year as companies, especially software and data services firms owned by private equity, get squeezed by the AI threat, Mish said in a Wednesday research note.
“We’re pricing in part of what we call a rapid, aggressive disruption scenario,” Mish, UBS head of credit strategy, told CNBC in an interview.
The UBS analyst said he and his colleagues have rushed to update their forecasts for this year and beyond because the latest models from Anthropic and OpenAI have sped up expectations of the arrival of AI disruption.
“The market has been slow to react because they didn’t really think it was going to happen this fast,” Mish said. “People are having to recalibrate the whole way that they look at evaluating credit for this disruption risk, because it’s not a ’27 or ’28 issue.”
Investor concerns around AI boiled over this month as the market shifted from viewing the technology as a rising tide story for technology companies to more of a winner-take-all dynamic where Anthropic, OpenAI and others threaten incumbents. Software firms were hit first and hardest, but a rolling series of sell-offs hit sectors as disparate as finance, real estate and trucking.
In his note, Mish and other UBS analysts lay out a baseline scenario in which borrowers of leveraged loans and private credit see a combined $75 billion to $120 billion in fresh defaults by the end of this year.
CNBC calculated those figures by using Mish’s estimates for increases of up to 2.5% and up to 4% in defaults for leveraged loans and private credit, respectively, by late 2026. Those are markets which he estimates to be $1.5 trillion and $2 trillion in size.
‘Credit crunch’?
But Mish also highlighted the possibility of a more sudden, painful AI transition in which defaults jump by twice the estimates for his base assumption, cutting off funding for many companies, he said. The scenario is what’s known in Wall Street jargon as a “tail risk.”
“The knock-on effect will be that you will have a credit crunch in loan markets,” he said. “You will have a broad repricing of leveraged credit, and you will have a shock to the system coming from credit.”
While the risks are rising, they will be governed by the timing of AI adoption by large corporations, the pace of AI model improvements and other uncertain factors, according to the UBS analyst.
“We’re not yet calling for that tail-risk scenario, but we are moving in that direction,” he said.
Leveraged loans and private credit are generally considered among the riskier corners of corporate credit, since they often finance below-investment-grade companies, many of them backed by private equity and carrying higher levels of debt.
When it comes to the AI trade, companies can be placed into three broad categories, according to Mish: The first are creators of the foundational large language models such as Anthropic and OpenAI, which are startups but could soon be large, publicly traded companies.
The second are investment-grade software firms like Salesforce and Adobe that have robust balance sheets and can implement AI to fend off challengers.
The last category is the cohort of private equity-owned software and data services companies with relatively high levels of debt.
“The winners of this entire transformation — if it really becomes, as we’re increasingly believing, a rapid and very disruptive or severe [change] — the winners are least likely to come from that third bucket,” Mish said.
Business
Without Rera data, real estate reform risks losing credibility: Homebuyers’ body – The Times of India
New Delhi: More than 75% of state real estate regulators, Reras, have either never published annual reports, discontinued their publication or not updated them despite statutory obligation and directions from the housing and urban affairs ministry, claimed homebuyers’ body FPCE on Friday. It released status report of 21 Reras as of Feb 13.The availability of updated annual reports is crucial as these contain details of data on performance of Reras, including project completion status categorised by timely completion, completion with extensions, and incomplete projects. The ministry’s format for publishing these reports also specifies providing details such as actual execution status of refund, possession and compensation orders as well as recovery warrant execution details with values and list of defaulting builders.FPCE said annual report data is not only vital for homebuyers to assess system credibility, but is equally necessary for both state and central govts to frame effective policies, design incentivisation schemes, and develop tax policy frameworks.“Unless we have credible data proving that after Rera the real estate sector has improved in terms of delivery, fairness, and keeping its promises, we are merely firing in the air,” said FPCE president Abhay Upadhyay, who is also a member of the govt’s Central Advisory Council on Rera.As per details shared by the entity, seven states — Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, West Bengal, Andhra Pradesh, Himachal Pradesh and Goa — have never published a single annual report since Rera’s implementation, and nine states, including Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh and Telangana, which initially published reports, have discontinued the practice.Upadhyay said when regulators themselves don’t follow the law, they lose the legal right to demand compliance from other stakeholders. “Their failure emboldens builders and weakens the very system they are meant to safeguard,” he said.
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