The 2025 NWSL playoffs are here and just like in the regular season, everyone is chasing the Kansas City Current after the Shield-winners’ historic season. Kansas City is the undeniable favorite to win the NWSL Championship on Nov. 22, but historically, the NWSL has been anything but predictable.

Could one of the other seven teams go on a run for a few weeks and lift the trophy? Of course? Will they? Well… here’s why each team will — and won’t — win the NWSL Championship.

Next game: at KC Current, Nov. 9, 12:30 p.m. ET, ABC/ESPN

Why they will win: Talent and tactics. Gotham is not your average No. 8 seed. This is a team that should have finished higher up the table, but laid an egg on Decision Day. Still, Gotham is loaded with championship-caliber talent: little over a month ago, they were lighting up the league with new arrival Jaedyn Shaw joining the healthy, in-form Rose Lavelle and the workhorse Jaedyn Shaw.

If Esther González, with her 13 regular-season goals, is healthy, she has proven capable of carrying the team throughout the season.

Why they won’t win: Defensive lapses. Only Kansas City conceded fewer goals than Gotham’s 25 this season, granted, but the way in which Gotham has conceded goals is something Kansas City could feast on. Gotham endured self-inflicted mistakes trying to play out of the back in Sunday’s loss to North Carolina, and that’s exactly what happened the first time that Gotham and Kansas City met in June, when the Current took the lead three minutes into the match.

Next game: at Washington Spirit, Nov. 8, 12 p.m. ET, CBS/Paramount+

Why they will win: A gritty identity. Louisville can play a direct, purposeful style of play and punish teams on counterattacks thanks largely to forward Emma Sears. Their 41% average possession ranks dead last in the league, per TruMedia, but they produced 35 goals and 10 wins from that. It’s the type of soccer that won’t always win award, but can be very effective over a 90-minute knockout game. And maybe — just maybe — their postseason naivete could play to their advantage like it did for, say, the 2016 Western New York Flash.

Why they won’t win: Late-game management. Louisville had a propensity to drop points late in games far too often this season, which left them to fight for a playoff berth until the final moments of Decision Day instead of trying to host a playoff game. That trend could creep back up on an inexperienced squad playing in the franchise’s first playoff game — and in one of the most hostile environments in the league.

Next game: at Portland Thorns, Nov. 9, 3 p.m. ET, ABC/ESPN

Why they will win: They grab hold of the game. San Diego kept the ball more than any other team in the regular season — 59.4% per TruMedia, over 6% more than next-closest Gotham FC — and that allowed the Wave to frequently dictate the flow of games. The Wave served up another taste of that in the first half of Sunday’s loss to Kansas City when they jumped out to an early lead.

The French connection of Kenza Dali and Delphine Cascarino remains electric, and they could be the difference-makers.

Why they won’t win: Inconsistent final product. Their possession game is great, but too often this season, San Diego has failed to muster enough in the final third. The Wave’s run of four straight games without a goal just after the summer break was the worst of the stretches.

They came alive, finally, in a 6-1 win against the Chicago Stars on Oct. 18, but that game was an anomaly — and with all due respect, Chicago is not Portland nor any other playoff team. If San Diego needs to chase this game at Providence Park or another should they advance, that could spell trouble.

Next game: at Orlando Pride, Nov. 7, 8 p.m. ET, Amazon Prime

Why they will win: Experience and resolve. Stay with me through the potential cliches and yes, get your ChatGPT jokes out of the way: Laura Harvey is the winningest coach in league history. Yes, even the all-time great Reign teams she coached came up short in the playoffs, but Harvey and the ageless Jess Fishlock keep finding ways to win (or score) even when the expectations are relatively low. They’ve overachieved this year, and they are certainly capable of making Orlando sweat.

Why they won’t win: They don’t score enough. Seattle’s 32 goals scored this regular season tied with the last-place Chicago Stars and ranks worst among all playoff teams. What’s worse is that, per TruMedia, the Reign over-performed from 25.19 expected goals — the worst mark in the league. Their 162 chances created also ranks last in the NWSL this season. Seattle managed to grind out results this season, none more impressive than handing Kansas City one of its three losses in an early-season meeting.

Next game: vs. Seattle Reign, Nov. 7, 8 p.m. ET, Amazon Prime

Why they will win: It’s all finally clicking. Orlando was never going to repeat last year’s near-invincible double-trophy season. Orlando is also than their mid-season slump suggested. The Pride enter the playoffs on a five-game unbeaten streak highlighted by a big 3-2 road win over the Spirit in a rematch of last year’s final.

What made Orlando great last year is that everyone on the roster was playing to their utmost potential, even the role players who don’t get the spotlight. That theme has returned in this late-season peak, with Carson Pickett, Kerri Abello and Haley McCutcheon among those scoring or creating goals. Timing is everything, and the Pride might feel that it is on their side.

Why they won’t win: They’re trapped on the wrong side of the bracket. Orlando’s path to a repeat NWSL Championship starts with a scheduling oddity and a trap game: a rematch of Sunday’s regular-season finale with Seattle. That 1-1 draw was a toss-up much like Friday’s quarterfinal will be, and whoever wins on Friday will likely have to go to Kansas City for a semifinal.

The odds are not with either team there, and while Orlando has been more productive than Seattle, the Pride still sit middle of the pack in the NWSL this year in chance creation and expected goals.

Next game: vs. San Diego Wave, Nov. 9, 3 p.m. ET, ABC/ESPN

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USWNT’s Olivia Moultrie believes signing a contract extension with the Portland Thorns is the right decision at this stage in her career.

Why they will win: They own the midfield. Well, they will win if they can own the midfield. Sam Coffey, Olivia Moultrie and Jessie Fleming are perfectly capable of that. All three have been influential in Portland’s steady late-season form, and Coffey is one of the best midfielders in the league. They have their work cut out for them against fellow Midfielder of the Year candidate Kenza Dali and the dynamic Gia Corley.

This quarterfinal will be won and lost in midfield and the Thorns should have a raucous Providence Park crowd behind them.

Why they won’t win: A disconnect reemerges. The early-season Thorns suffered from the same issues as the 2024 Thorns: inconsistency and incongruity. They’ve largely shaken that off over the past month or two to hit their stride, but the issue of players being out of sync has popped up sporadically over these past two seasons. Largely, individuals have carried them through those stretches, whether Sophia Wilson last season or Coffey or Moultrie this year.

San Diego is well organized — not to mention a stacked Spirit team potentially awaiting in a semifinal — and could force the Thorns to stray from their identity.

Next game: vs. Racing Louisville, Nov. 8, 12 p.m. ET, CBS/Paramount+

Why they will win: Consistency. The Spirit have quietly marched through the season in Kansas City’s shadow, but player for player, they feel like they can stack up with the league’s best — as forward Trinity Rodman recently said. When healthy, the Spirit has the offensive firepower to match Kansas City, and the central combination of Esme Morgan and Tara McKeown has largely been up to the task.

Much like last year, when the Spirit sat in the shadow of Orlando’s dominance, Washington is the best team nobody is talking about.

Why they won’t win: Mounting injury concerns. Washington had nothing to play for on Decision Day and smartly opted to rest players, but the sight of only three healthy field players on the bench — with two goalkeepers named just to have a legal roster — underscored some of the injury concerns for Kansas City’s most legitimate challenger. All eyes are on forward Trinity Rodman and whether she returns from her sprained MCL, but how close to 100% will Croix Bethune and Leicy Santos be, just to name two other major players?

Rodman, especially, had to labor through the pain during last year’s playoffs. She and some teammates will have to do the same again this year.

No. 1 seed Kansas City Current

Next game: vs. Gotham FC, Nov. 9, 12:30 p.m. ET, ABC/ESPN

Why they will win: They are unstoppable. This is the best team in NWSL history. Kansas City set records for wins (21), points (65), goals against (13) and shutouts (16). The Current are richly deep in talent in their front six, from the steady Lo’eau LaBonta to the flashy Debinha, and they punish teams ruthlessly and quickly on the counterattack. They control games out of possession better than any team since the 2018 North Carolina Courage, and this year, they’ve had the defense (for a full season) to back up their attack.

By all logic, this team should beat any opponent and lift the trophy on Nov. 22.

Why they won’t win: If Chawinga isn’t healthy… Finding faults with Kansas City, who only lost three times all season, feels like splitting hairs. But one major question is the adductor injury to back-to-back NWSL Golden Boot winner Temwa Chawinga, who is day-to-day and missed Sunday’s game, two weeks after sustaining the injury.

The sample size is small to evaluate Kansas City’s games without Chawinga, but the Current are less productive (see: 1-0 loss to Houston last month) and less unpredictable, as Sunday showed. And what if Bia Zaneratto, who left Sunday’s game injured, is also unavailable?