Business
OBR chairman resigns over Budget leak
The chairman of the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) has resigned over the early publication of the watchdog’s forecasts.
Richard Hughes said he was resigning to allow the OBR to “quickly move on from this regrettable incident”.
His resignation follows publication of a report that described the leak as “the worst failure in the 15-year history of the OBR” and strongly criticised the watchdog’s processes for protecting sensitive information.
In a letter to the Chancellor and the chairwoman of the Commons Treasury Committee, Mr Hughes said he took “full responsibility” for “the shortcomings identified in the report”.
He said: “By implementing the recommendations in this report, I am certain the OBR can quickly regain and restore the confidence and esteem that it has earned through 15 years of rigorous, independent economic analysis.”
Mr Hughes has served as chairman of the OBR since 2020 and was reappointed to the job for a second five-year term in July this year.
Speaking in the Commons as the news of the resignation broke, Chief Secretary to the Treasury James Murray offered the Government’s thanks to Mr Hughes “for his dedication to public service”.
Later, the Chancellor herself offered her thanks for Mr Hughes’ “many years of public service”, adding: “This Government is committed to protecting the independence of the OBR and the integrity of our fiscal framework and institutions.”
Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch accused the Chancellor of using Mr Hughes as a “human shield” and called on Rachel Reeves to resign.
Liberal Democrat Treasury spokeswoman Daisy Cooper said Mr Hughes was “a dedicated public servant” who had “rightly taken responsibility for a failure on his watch”, adding the OBR needed to learn from its “catastrophic error”.
Treasury Committee chairwoman Dame Meg Hillier also thanked Mr Hughes, saying: “I commend his decision to take full responsibility for the incident and I wish him well for the future.”
The Treasury said it would begin the process of finding a replacement for Mr Hughes “in the coming weeks”.
The OBR launched an investigation after official forecasts were uploaded to the watchdog’s website, releasing details of the Budget almost an hour early.
In a report published on Monday, the OBR said the leak had been “seriously disruptive to the Chancellor, who had every right to expect that the (forecasts) would not be publicly available until she sat down at the end of her Budget speech”.
Noting Mr Hughes had already “rightly” apologised for the leak, the report said it was “not a case of intentional leakage” or a matter of pressing publish too early.
The OBR said it was caused by two errors linked to the WordPress publishing site it used.
The report into the incident said that, while it knew web addresses for its files follow a pattern, it assumed “the protections provided” by WordPress “would ensure it could not be accessed”.
But two configuration errors were the technical causes of the premature access.
The forecast for the last spring statement in March was also “accessed prematurely” on one occasion, the report noted, but concluded that no activity appeared to have been taken as a result and the most likely explanation is “benign”.
The report recommended a review of the watchdog’s processes for publishing such documents.
“To rebuild trust, the leadership of the OBR must take immediate steps to change completely the publication arrangements for the two important and time-sensitive documents containing the results of its biannual forecasts that it publishes in a normal year, and review arrangements for all other publications,” the report said.
One option would be for the watchdog to use the Government’s digital architecture but publish when it wants.
Another would be to have the Treasury publish the forecasts for the Budget and spring statement, but this would only work if safeguards for “real and perceived independence” could be put in place.
There may need to be an interim solution, the report noted, but said new arrangements must be in place in time for the next statement in spring 2026.
The firm was unable to cope during high demand, Ofwat says, leading to “immense stress” for customers.
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Middle East heat may ripple across India’s energy supply chain, flags Goldman Sachs – The Times of India
As tensions continue to heat up in the Middle East, concerns are raising about disruptions to one of the world’s most critical energy shipping routes, the Strait of Hormuz. Any disruption could significantly affect major oil-importing countries such as India, as the narrow Strait of Hormuz is central to global energy trade. The strait sees almost 20 million barrels of oil passing through each day, or about a fifth of the world’s consumption, pass through the route. The waterway also carries roughly 19% of global liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipments, making it a crucial corridor for energy-importing economies.A recent report by Goldman Sachs has flagged early signs of stress in the region. The report warned that tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has already begun showing signs of disruption, with shipping firms, oil producers and insurers adopting a cautious approach following reports of damaged vessels in nearby waters.According to the firm, financial markets have already begun factoring in the geopolitical risk. Oil prices currently carry an estimated risk premium of $18-per-barrel, reflecting the potential market impact if energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz were disrupted for about a month.
Even is the oil facilities are not directly damaged, a shutdown of the shipping route could expose a significant portion of global supply. The report estimates that in an event of full closure, about 16 million barrels per day of oil flows could be affected, despite the availability of some pipeline routes designed to bypass the strait.And the risks are not limited to crude oil shipments with almost 80 million tonnes of LNG exports annually, much of it from Qatar, moving through the passage. Any prolonged disruption could tighten gas supply globally and potentially drive European benchmark gas prices back to levels seen during the 2022 energy crisis.
Asian economies stand among the most exposed to such disruptions. Major importers such as China, India, Japan and South Korea depend heavily on oil and LNG shipments that transit through the strategic corridor.While global oil inventories and spare production capacity could help cushion short-term shocks, the report warned that sustained disruption to Gulf shipping routes could trigger sharp volatility in global energy markets and push prices higher across oil, gas and refined fuel products.Market participants and governments are closely watching tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, along with diplomatic and military developments involving the United States, Iran and Gulf nations, to assess whether the current disruptions remain temporary or escalate into a broader energy supply shock.
KARACHI: The Pakistan Stock Exchange rallied on Thursday after Saudi Arabia assured Pakistan of facilitating crude oil shipments through the Red Sea port of Yanbu Port, easing concerns over potential fuel supply disruptions.
The benchmark KSE-100 Index climbed sharply during the trading session, rising 4,439.93 points (2.85%) to reach an intraday high of 160,217.14 points.
Market Recovery
Analysts attributed the market rebound to renewed institutional buying and improving investor sentiment after Saudi assurances on oil supplies.
Market expert Ahsan Mehanti, CEO of Arif Habib Commodities, said easing fuel supply concerns played a key role in the recovery.
He added that rising global crude prices, expectations of a new International Monetary Fund loan tranche for Pakistan, and positive economic indicators also boosted investor confidence.
Alternative Oil Route
Pakistan sought an alternative supply route after Iran announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial global oil transit corridor.
Federal Petroleum Minister Ali Pervaiz Malik held talks with Nawaf bin Said Al-Malki, requesting Saudi support for uninterrupted energy supplies.
Saudi authorities reportedly assured Pakistan that oil shipments could be routed through Yanbu, and one crude vessel has already been prepared for dispatch.
Global Oil Market Impact
Oil prices continued to rise amid tensions in the Middle East conflict involving Iran, Israel and the United States.
Brent crude: up 3.26% to $83.99 per barrel
West Texas Intermediate (WTI): up 3.70% to $77.42 per barrel
Energy markets remain volatile as shipping disruptions threaten supply through the Strait of Hormuz, a route that handles nearly 20% of global oil trade.
Analysts say the Saudi assurance helped calm fears about Pakistan’s energy supply chain, contributing to the strong recovery at the PSX.
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