Sports
Olympic hockey roster grades for U.S., Canada, Finland, Sweden, plus snubs and surprises
The 2026 Winter Olympic men’s hockey tournament begins Feb. 12 in Milan, Italy — provided that the ice and the arena are ready, which is something the nations competing in the tournament have been assured about.
“We’ve taken some steps to make sure that we have backup plans should we need them, but we’ve heard from the IIHF and the IOC that the arena will be built and it will be ready and that’s our expectation,” Hockey Canada executive Scott Salmond said when his team revealed its roster Wednesday.
Assuming it happens, this tournament promises to have some great games, battles for medals and of course the potential for another round in the USA vs. Canada rivalry, which might be the most antagonistic feud between professional teams today.
But before the teams hit the ice, they needed to officially lock in their rosters at the end of 2025. Which means we now have a clear picture of the strengths, weaknesses, surprises and snubs of the Olympic hockey rosters.
Here’s how the rosters grade out — at each position group and overall — and which NHL players might be feeling snubbed by their home nations after these roster reveals.
Note: Players are listed alphabetically within each position group. Players listed with an asterisk were on the original selection lists in June.
Jump ahead: USA
Sweden
Finland
Canada
United States of America
Forwards
Matt Boldy, Minnesota Wild
Kyle Connor, Winnipeg Jets
Jack Eichel, Vegas Golden Knights*
Jake Guentzel, Tampa Bay Lightning
Jack Hughes, New Jersey Devils
Clayton Keller, Utah Mammoth
Dylan Larkin, Detroit Red Wings
Auston Matthews, Toronto Maple Leafs*
J.T. Miller, New York Rangers
Brock Nelson, Colorado Avalanche
Tage Thompson, Buffalo Sabres
Brady Tkachuk, Ottawa Senators
Matthew Tkachuk, Florida Panthers*
Vincent Trocheck, New York Rangers
Even with a couple of significant snubs, this might be the greatest assemblage of forward talent the U.S. has ever had in the Olympic tournament.
The one-two punch of Eichel and Matthews gives the U.S. team two all-world centers in their primes, which is something it has never experienced. No doubt Team USA was relieved to see a vintage Matthews performance for the Leafs this week — it desperately needs him in dominant form to win this tournament.
Matthews will be the captain, but as they showed at the 4 Nations Face-Off, the Tkachuks are the heart and soul of this team. Matthew Tkachuk is still working his way back from preseason surgery but is skating again. Brother Brady also missed time this season but has been great for Ottawa with 18 points in 19 games.
At 4 Nations, the U.S. had players with a finisher’s scoring touch in Boldy, Connor and Guentzel. Adding Thompson to that group adds another threat, with 64 goals in his past 115 games. Larkin was a revelation at 4 Nations, playing some of his best hockey. And although many aren’t happy to see them selected over other younger scoring options, Miller and Trocheck bring a 200-foot game and tenacity to the roster.
One name to watch: Jack Hughes. He’s still being impacted by a hand injury he suffered in November, wearing a brace on his right hand during the roster reveal on Friday. Hughes was used primarily on the wing at 4 Nations. He looked out of sorts and overmatched, generating just one assist in four games. Where does he fit here?
“Jack is a unique player with his ability to drive offense. One of the things we liked about the way we constructed our lines at the 4 Nations was the size we had down the middle, we thought was the strength of the group,” coach Mike Sullivan said. “But having said that, we have had conversations around using Jack in the middle at this Olympic experience, and we’ll continue to have those conversations leading up to the first game.”
Overall forwards grade: A-
0:48
Welcome to Minnesota! Quinn Hughes scores his first goal for the Wild
Quinn Hughes scores his first goal for the Wild to give them a 4-0 lead vs. the Bruins.
Defensemen
Brock Faber, Minnesota Wild
Noah Hanifin, Vegas Golden Knights
Quinn Hughes, Minnesota Wild*
Seth Jones, Florida Panthers
Charlie McAvoy, Boston Bruins*
Jake Sanderson, Ottawa Senators
Jaccob Slavin, Carolina Hurricanes
Zach Werenski, Columbus Blue Jackets
Most of these defensemen played at 4 Nations, but there are a few notable changes to the group. Rangers star defenseman Adam Fox didn’t make the cut. Enter Jones, who revived his career with Florida last season.
But the biggest addition was a player who was supposed to be a difference-maker at 4 Nations but couldn’t due to injury: Quinn Hughes, the dynamic all-around star for Team USA GM Bill Guerin’s Minnesota Wild, who has 30 points in 35 games this season.
He’s playing with Faber in Minnesota, and that could shake up the pairing from 4 Nations. Faber had played a bunch with Slavin in that tournament.
Guerin said “there’s a lot to like” with this group.
“I mean, it’s a pretty incredible group of defensemen, combining skill, skating ability, the ability to defend, the willingness to defend, puck moving,” he said. “We have a number of guys that can play in the power play. They can all kill penalties. Versatility, mobility, all those things … when you look at them, it’s a pretty damn good group.”
Overall defensemen grade: A-
0:43
Seth Jones scores power-play goal vs. Hurricanes
Seth Jones nets power-play goal
Goaltenders
Connor Hellebuyck, Winnipeg Jets
Jake Oettinger, Dallas Stars
Jeremy Swayman, Boston Bruins
The trio that backstopped the Americans at the 4 Nations Face-Off will do the same at the 2026 Olympics.
Hellebuyck, who won the Hart Trophy as league MVP and the Vezina as the top goaltender last season, had a .932 save percentage and a 1.59 goals-against average in three 4 Nations Face-Off games. He was outplayed by Jordan Binnington in the gold medal game, but that was more about Binnington having the game of his life than Hellebuyck being at fault.
Hellebuyck had minor arthroscopic knee surgery on Nov. 22 to address a nagging issue. That’s one reason his numbers aren’t as dominant (.907, 2.51 goals-against in 22 games). Another reason is that the Jets aren’t very good, which is why he has 4.8 goals saved above expected this season.
Oettinger has 8.2 goals saved above expected this season, to go along with a 16-7-3 record and a .907 save percentage. A little friendly competition never hurts: Oettinger said last May that “other than winning the Stanley Cup, my No. 1 goal” is being Team USA’s starting goaltender.
The American goaltending pool being extraordinarily deep, there was some talk that Swayman might get pushed out by the likes of Vancouver’s Thatcher Demko, Calgary’s Dustin Wolf or Spencer Knight, who has finally broken through in Chicago. After all, Swayman didn’t see any game action at 4 Nations. But Team USA put a premium on players who showed up and thrived at the 2025 IIHF world championships in Sweden and Denmark.
Thrive, Swayman did: He played seven games, won them all, and posted a 1.69 goals-against average and a .921 save percentage in leading the U.S. to gold. He punctuated that with a strong start to the season for the Bruins, with a .904 save percentage and 15 wins in 28 games.
Overall goaltending grade: A
Surprises
Has there been another NHL trade that rehabilitated a player’s reputation more than the one that sent Seth Jones to the Florida Panthers last season?
Jones was a defenseman who would get Norris Trophy votes. Then he was traded to Chicago in 2021, signed a long-term deal, and saw his esteem buried under the weight of the Blackhawks’ multiyear rebuild. When Florida acquired him last season, the biggest headlines were about how much salary the Blackhawks were retaining on his deal through 2029-30. And then he formed the Panthers’ most effective defensive pairing (with Niko Mikkola), helping Florida to its second straight Stanley Cup championship and Jones’ first ring.
It was a performance that reminded everyone how good Jones can be when motivated and surrounded by elite talent. He produces offensively, brings size to the blue line, plays fundamentally sound defensively and devours minutes — leading Florida in postseason average ice time (25:30).
Jones has some history with Team USA management. Panthers GM Bill Zito not only acquired him from Chicago last season but was an assistant GM in Columbus when the Blue Jackets traded for Jones in 2016. Oilers GM Stan Bowman was running the Blackhawks when they traded for Jones and signed him to an eight-year deal. It never hurts to have support in the room.
0:53
Jason Robertson nets goal for Stars
Jason Robertson nets goal for Stars
It was expected the Americans would run it back with essentially the same roster they had at 4 Nations with a couple of augmentations. Tage Thompson was obviously going to be one of them, having been in the building for the 4 Nations championship game as a potential injury replacement. With 20 goals in 39 games, Thompson closed that deal this season, if there was ever any doubt.
But with Chris Kreider not returning, there would be another forward spot opened up, and that spot went to Keller, despite significant competition for it.
Keller made his case over the past two seasons in Utah, scoring a career-high 90 points (30 goals, 60 assists) last season and then following that up with 36 points in 41 games this season. But what separated Keller from the pack wasn’t just the fact that he played for Team USA at the IIHF world championship in May, but that he captained the team that won gold for the U.S. in that tournament for the first time in 92 years.
Team USA management heavily weighed participation in worlds as a factor in making the Olympic cut, as proof of concept that those players can thrive on “the biggest stage,” as Guerin put it. Keller had 10 points in 10 tournament games for the U.S., which might have clinched this for him.
Snubs
Connor McDavid ended the 4 Nations Face-Off championship game 8:18 into overtime, but people forget that the Americans had a 2-1 lead at 7:32 of the second period. In both scenarios, one more goal from the U.S. changes everything. Which is why Team USA was criticized for not having Kyle Connor in the lineup for the gold medal game — and why it took grief for not having Cole Caufield on the roster at all.
Caufield has 57 goals in his past 122 NHL games. He’s an electrifying performer, hard to defend and plays like he has a GPS system to find the back of the net. But he’s listed at 5-8 and the analytics say he’s not a dependable defensive player — despite protestations from Montreal fans who claim otherwise.
Also keep this in mind: Caufield played in IIHF worlds two years ago but opted not to play after last season, despite Montreal bowing out of the playoffs in five games.
As Guerin told ESPN’s Emily Kaplan at orientation camp: “We’re doing things differently now, and the world championships are absolutely connected to this. If you’re saying no and you don’t have a legit excuse, it will hurt you.”
Only five American players have scored more goals than DeBrincat (87 in 206 games) over the past three seasons. But his size (listed at 5-8) and average defensive acumen meant there were better options on the wing.
After Canada won the 4 Nations Face-Off, several sources around Team USA indicated that management wasn’t happy with Adam Fox. They didn’t feel he had a strong tournament, having failed to register a point in four games and struggling at times with the pace of play. But it was his blown defensive assignment on McDavid’s “golden goal” — deftly broken down here by analyst Frank Corrado — that drew the most ire. In fact, there were those who felt that sin was so egregious that Fox basically played himself off the Olympic team in that overtime.
I asked Guerin about that theory, and Fox’s snub, on Friday:
“Well, I think it’s exactly that. It’s perception. And that’s for you guys to wrestle with and talk about. That’s not for us. If you think we made a decision on one play, then you must not think we’re very smart. So other than that, I’m going to keep those conversations private. Our decision was made and we’re moving forward.”
Fox was one of the first players selected for the 4 Nations roster. Now he can’t even crack the top eight for the Olympics. We’re going to pretend that his tournament performance didn’t play a role here?
Understandably, a lot of Team USA and New York Rangers fans aren’t ready to let this one go quite yet. Fox is a Norris Trophy-winning, elite defenseman who has been nothing short of exceptional when he has been healthy for the Rangers this season. The idea that Rangers GM Chris Drury and coaches Mike Sullivan and David Quinn were part of the Team USA brain trust and Fox didn’t make the team boggles the mind.
Guerin deserves credit for putting his neck on the line when he makes audacious calls like this one. Obviously, if the construction of the D corps leads to gold, no one’s breathing a word about Adam Fox during the parade. But if the Americans fall short? Then he becomes the poster boy for a shoddily constructed roster.
Based on the Fox snub, it’s pretty clear Team USA feels it has all the power-play quarterbacks it needs and that the overall defense can generate enough offensively.
But leaving Hutson off is leaving off the most dynamic offensive defenseman the national team program has produced since Quinn Hughes. Hutson has 106 points in his first 122 NHL games, winning rookie of the year honors last season. True, he doesn’t have the size of Jones or Hanifin, but they don’t have his dynamism. Please note that like Caufield, Hutson didn’t play at worlds, either.
0:51
Simon Edvinsson scores goal for Red Wings
Simon Edvinsson scores goal for Red Wings
Kane, 37, would have been the ultimate “old guy still got it” pick for Team USA. He played in Vancouver in 2010 and Sochi in 2014, as well as for the U.S. in the World Cup of Hockey in 2016. He trails Brett Hull by 24 points for the all-time mark for American-born players (1,391). The Detroit Red Wings winger was a surprise invitee to U.S. Olympic orientation camp in the summer, putting him on the radar as an option. The team decided to go young, albeit less accomplished.
Knies, 23, has something a lot of players on this roster don’t have: Olympic experience, having played four games in the 2022 Beijing Games, in which the NHL did not take part. He’s the kind of power forward that Guerin values: big, productive, fearless around the net-front and a forechecking terror. Plus, seeing as how Auston Matthews is fairly important to Team USA’s success, wouldn’t it make sense to draft his linemate to the roster?
Kreider is the only 4 Nations forward who won’t return to play in the Olympic tournament. He was a healthy scratch for the Americans in the first two games of the tournament and then drew in after Matthew Tkachuk‘s injury. They both dressed for the gold medal game, with Kreider limited to 6:25 of ice time in the overtime loss. After a hot start for the Anaheim Ducks this season — 13 goals in his first 26 games — his production cratered, as Kreider hasn’t scored a goal since Dec. 1.
The Ducks defenseman was invited to the U.S. Olympic orientation camp and played 10 games on Team USA’s gold medal winning team at IIHF worlds. He’s a great young (24) blueliner who can log big minutes, averaging over 25 per game for the Ducks. LaCombe hasn’t been all that exceptional for the Ducks, but his underlying numbers are better than those of Hanifin, the left-side defenseman whose spot he’d probably have taken.
Just a baffling snub. Robertson is eighth in the NHL in points, with 48 in 41 games. That includes 24 goals, which ties him with McDavid for fourth in the league. He is exactly the kind of offensive player down the lineup that Team USA has lacked in previous Olympics and, frankly, at a 4 Nations tournament that saw it lose gold by a single goal. He’s a pure finisher. He’s not a liability defensively.
In the end, the Americans are leaving one of their best and brightest back home because of Team USA’s philosophical choice to cede roster spots to veteran “role players” such as J.T. Miller and Vincent Trocheck rather than pure offensive talents, and the fact that this philosophy, and a slightly down season for Robo in 2023-24, left him off the 4 Nations roster, which means he never had a chance to share in the “chemistry” that led to the majority of that roster continuing on to the Olympics.
0:45
Mikko Rantanen scores goal for Stars
Mikko Rantanen tallies goal vs. Blackhawks
The Buffalo Sabres winger has size (6-4, 220 pounds) and physicality, to go along with being one of the NHL’s most productive goal-scoring power forwards (36 goals in 82 games last season). He’s also willing to literally put his body on the line for his team, setting an NHL record for blocked shots by a forward (113) last season.
But again, if performing in international tournaments was a point of emphasis for Team USA — and in particular showing up to last season’s IIHF worlds — then it should be noted that Tuch has appeared in worlds only once, in 2023, despite missing the playoffs for four straight seasons in Buffalo.
Overall team grade: B+
This roster was constructed to beat Canada but not be Canada. And it’s high time Team USA starts acting like it’s just as talented as its rivals.
It’s the frustrating part about being an American hockey fan: The Miracle on Ice has red, white and blue-pilled the brains of hockey executives for decades that heart, grit and work rate are the fundamental difference between USA Hockey and the Canadians and the Russians, to use two elite talent examples.
For years, it was the blue-collar aesthetic of the Americans, trying to grit their way to another Miracle. Some of this was due to a talent disparity with other hockey nations. But that’s since been corrected thanks to USA Hockey’s growth and the roots put down by NHL expansion. There was also a team-construction mindset that Team USA needs rosters with veterans who humbly accept roles rather than young stars who might — emphasis on might — not be able to do so.
And that’s how you go nearly five decades without Olympic men’s hockey gold.
This is the first time in nearly 30 years that it felt like the talent gap between the U.S. and Canada had significantly closed. The 2026 Olympics were going to be the moment when Team USA wouldn’t do what it always seems to do: Leave dynamic offensive talents home due to perceptions about defensive lapses or compete levels or because they didn’t attend the right offseason tournament, in favor of less effective veteran players whose greatest virtues are nebulous “intangibles.” The Americans’ pool is finally deep enough to go skill vs. skill with anyone in the world; it’s a moment to let our freak flag fly with an all-star team of superior hockey talents.
And yet five of the top 10 American-born scorers in the NHL aren’t on this team.
This feels like a roster built to mitigate risk at a moment when Team USA should be taking more of them with its team construction.
Look, I’m not going to be a total Debbie Downer here. As we saw at 4 Nations, this team has what it takes to beat Canada and win Olympic gold. Heck, the defense and goaltending alone might be enough to land the plane in Italy. I would like nothing more to be totally, completely and utterly wrong in my criticism of some of these roster choices. I would like nothing more than to apologize to Bill Guerin for my lack of confidence in his vision. I would like nothing more than to see the Americans send Canada home in a crisis of faith while our anthem plays and Matthew Tkachuk chews on his medal to make sure it’s real gold.
To paraphrase the late Herb Brooks in the movie “Miracle”:
“I’m sick and tired of hearing about the Miracle on Ice. This is your time. Now go out there and take it.”
Sweden
Forwards
Jesper Bratt, New Jersey Devils
Leo Carlsson, Anaheim Ducks
Joel Eriksson Ek, Minnesota Wild
Filip Forsberg, Nashville Predators
Pontus Holmberg, Tampa Bay Lightning
Adrian Kempe, Los Angeles Kings
Gabriel Landeskog, Colorado Avalanche
Elias Lindholm, Boston Bruins
William Nylander, Toronto Maple Leafs
Elias Pettersson, Vancouver Canucks
Rickard Rakell, Pittsburgh Penguins
Lucas Raymond, Detroit Red Wings
Alexander Wennberg, San Jose Sharks
Mika Zibanejad, New York Rangers
This is essentially the Swedish 4 Nations roster, save for a couple of changes. Out went Viktor Arvidsson (Bruins) and Gustav Nyquist (Winnipeg Jets); arriving are Pontus Holmberg (Lightning), Alexander Wennberg (Sharks) and, most notably, Gabriel Landeskog.
Landeskog was actually one of the first members of this roster to be announced after his miraculous comeback with Colorado last season. The start of his first regular season since 2021-22 was a bit messy, as he went his first 16 games without a goal. He now has 21 points in 39 games, but it’s his leadership and intangibles that made him a no-debate pick for head coach Sam Hallam. This is Landeskog’s second Olympics after winning silver in Sochi.
This version of Sweden has some good offensive pop from players such as Raymond (44 points in 40 games), Nylander (14 goals), Kempe (13 goals) and Forsberg (16 goals). Zibanejad has been better offensively than he was last season, with 30 points in 41 games. Rakell can bring the offense. Bratt hasn’t been finishing chances but has created them, with 31 points in 40 games as one of the NHL’s best puck handlers.
If there’s a concern about this group, it’s obviously in the middle. Leo Carlsson (42 points in 39 games) is going to have to be an offensive monster unless Elias Pettersson (23 points in 31 games) can recapture the offensive magic in a best-on-best tournament. Joel Eriksson Ek can help but offers more on defense than offense. Elias Lindholm can play center or wing. They’ll miss the two-way game of Vegas center William Karlsson, who is out with an injury and didn’t make the cut.
Overall forwards grade: B
0:11
Jesper Wallstedt makes beautiful save
Jesper Wallstedt makes beautiful save
Defensemen
Rasmus Andersson, Calgary Flames
Philip Broberg, St. Louis Blues
Jonas Brodin, Minnesota Wild
Rasmus Dahlin, Buffalo Sabres
Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Toronto Maple Leafs
Gustav Forsling, Florida Panthers
Victor Hedman, Tampa Bay Lightning
Erik Karlsson, Pittsburgh Penguins
Edmonton’s Mattias Ekholm didn’t make the cut after playing in 4 Nations. Sweden adds Broberg and Ekman-Larsson for the Olympics. In Broberg’s case, having future Blues GM Alexander Steen as a player personnel consultant for Team Sweden no doubt helped his case. Ekman-Larsson is just a great story, going from a Stanley Cup win with the Panthers two years ago to a solid pair of seasons in Toronto.
This is a deeply experienced and, if we’re being honest, just a fun group to watch. Dahlin has been great for Buffalo; watching him get creative with someone like Hedman anchoring the back end is awesome. Same with the cagey old offensive dynamo Karlsson and Forsling, an absolute rock for the Panthers.
The Swedes have considerable depth, but they do have one glaring question mark in Hedman. He had elbow surgery last month. The recovery timeline has him back for the Olympics. If he can’t go, that’s a significant blow to their medal chances.
Overall defensemen grade: A-
0:44
Rasmus Dahlin notches goal on the power play
Rasmus Dahlin notches goal on the power play
Goaltenders
Filip Gustavsson, Minnesota Wild
Jacob Markstrom, New Jersey Devils
Jesper Wallstedt, Minnesota Wild
Linus Ullmark was a lock for this roster, having made Sweden’s 4 Nations team last year. But he took a leave of absence from the Ottawa Senators in late December, and Sweden made the call not to include him on the Olympic roster.
That opened the door for the Wild to have both of their primary goalies wearing the Tre Kronor: Gustavsson, who was on the 4 Nations team and has strong numbers this season (.912 save percentage, 2.47 goals-against average), and Wallstedt, the rookie sensation who went 11-2-3 in his first 16 games with a startling .928 save percentage.
The wild card here is Markstrom, the 35-year-old Devils goalie who has World Cup and world championship experience. He has not been good for the Devils (minus-4.25 goals saved above expected) this season, but it’s hard not to think back to those games, including in the Stanley Cup playoffs, when he has been impenetrable.
Overall goaltending grade: B
Surprises
Holmberg’s selection was one of those roster picks that immediately inspired fans to list several Swedish players who have more points than the 26-year-old Tampa Bay Lightning winger, who has 12 in 33 games this season while averaging 12:53 per game in ice time. His career high in points in the NHL is 19, set last season in 68 games with the Toronto Maple Leafs. But his virtue is as a checking forward and creator of chaos.
“He is a little bit of a pot-bellied pig when it comes to his physical game,” Hallam told NHL.com.
But one look at his career path and it’s not hard to comprehend why he’s on this team: Holmberg was a dependable forward for Vaxjo HC of the Swedish Hockey League from 2018 to ’22, where his head coach was — you guessed it — Sam Hallam. Holmberg had 14 points in 14 playoff games to help Vaxjo win a league championship in 2020-21.
Sure, he’s a rookie. But the “Wall of St. Paul” is extremely deserving of an Olympic roster spot based on his play this season. Plus he has a ton of international tournament experience and it’s not like other options like Anton Forsberg and Samuel Ersson are all that compelling by comparison.
0:47
Nylander becomes Leafs’ all-time leader with 15th OT goal
William Nylander scores his 15th career overtime goal to win it for the Leafs against the Blue Jackets.
Wennberg has 26 points in 40 games, skating to a minus-12 for the San Jose Sharks this season. But the veteran center played 10 games at worlds last season and made a solid impression on Hallam there. He’s sound defensively and offers some versatility at forward for Sweden.
Snubs
The 36-year-old Calgary Flames center has 15 points in 40 games, including 10 goals. He has several seasons of world championship tournament experience and was an injury replacement for the World Cup of Hockey in 2016. Flames coach Ryan Huska said that Sweden “made a mistake,” and Backlund believes he has played his best hockey since becoming Flames captain.
“It would have been a dream to go to the Olympics, but I never expected it because Sweden has so many good players,” Backlund said on Friday, adding that he will remain in the Olympic protocol as a potential injury replacement.
It’s difficult to understand how a Swede who inspires Edmonton Oilers fans to show up in horned helmets and face paint doesn’t have a place on this roster. Ekholm, 35, has 17 points in 41 games this season, skating 20:44 per game on average. There was some friction between Ekholm and Hallam at the 4 Nations Face-Off.
The 23-year-old Sharks forward has 26 points in 36 games, after posting 58 points in 77 games last season. He was poised to play at the IIHF world championships last year, but was ruled out after he suffered a laceration on his wrist from a skate blade in a pre-tournament game.
A surprising omission given how well and how much he has played for the Detroit Red Wings this season, with 15 points in 39 games and 22:14 in average ice time. The 22-year-old even put in the time at world championships last spring. This was a curious one.
The 23-year-old winger has been awesome for the New York Islanders, with 12 goals and six assists in 41 games. He played 10 games at the IIHF worlds last season, too. But as Swedish hockey writer Uffe Bodin noted, this is not a roster that leaned heavily into youth. “It is an experienced Swedish squad that heads to Italy next month. The average age is just over 29 years old and there are only five players who are 25 years old or younger. This can be seen as a sign that the younger generation of Swedish NHL players has not yet fully come to fruition,” he wrote. “MoJo” is like that high-school senior who does all the prep work and has all the extracurricular activities on his transcript but still can’t get into his first-choice college. He has been awesome for the surging Minnesota Wild this season, with 32 points in 39 games. He played in the past two IIHF world championship tournaments, scoring 20 points in 18 games. As he told Michael Russo of The Athletic on Friday: “It’s obviously sad and disappointing, but I’ve done what I can, I think. I think I’ve proven how I can play, and I guess it’s not enough.” The Boston Bruins blueliner has 13 points in 33 games this season, skating 22:10 per game. But he was injured for 4 Nations and didn’t play at IIHF worlds, which might have impacted Sweden’s ability to see how he worked with other D-men. Concerns about his health have dogged him, too, and that might have scared Sweden away. The Swedes don’t have the Sedins or a Mats Sundin or a Henrik Lundqvist. They lack that core superstar talent (or talents) around whom everything rotates, something that other teams in the Olympic tournament can boast. Maybe Carlsson gets there soon, but he’s not there yet. So, in the meantime, the parts are going to have to add up something greater than their sum for the Swedes to do better than bronze at these games — and I believe they can. This is a dangerous team if the defense is healthy and correctly deployed; if someone like Nylander puts together a multipoint barrage on the right night; and if Sweden can get that one special game in the crease from Gustavsson, Markstrom or most intriguingly Wallstedt. Everyone is blowing up balloons for the next USA vs. Canada party. Sweden can easily be the party poopers. Joel Armia, Los Angeles Kings Does the absence of Aleksander Barkov, whom the Panthers lost to a preseason knee injury, drop this group a full letter grade? It might. Barkov is arguably the best 200-foot center in the world, with two Stanley Cup wins and previous Olympic experience in Sochi. Finland could confidently put him out against a top scoring line for Canada or the U.S. and know there was a decent chance he could neutralize them — while scoring for the Finns in the process. All the more pressure on Rantanen to be the team’s superstar leader, and he is more than ready for it. The Dallas forward showed last postseason what can happen when he goes Beast Mode, and he has been a terror at previous IIHF tournaments. The opportunity exists to reunite the Stars’ Finnish Mafia line, which ceased to exist after Granlund left for free agent riches with the Ducks. Roope Hintz was the other member of that trio at forward. Barkov’s absence puts the focus on Sebastian Aho to be an offensive engine. He has had extensive world championships experience to go along with lengthy playoff runs with the Hurricanes. Artturi Lehkonen will also be heavily leaned on for offense. Just like Jon Cooper imported two Lightning linemates to Team Canada, Finland gets the benefit of having two longtime linemates from the Panthers: center Anton Lundell, and forward Eetu Luostarinen, two thirds of Florida’s dynamic checking line from last season’s Stanley Cup run. Any chance their other linemate can change his name to Bräd Maarchrända and join them on the Finnish team? Overall forwards grade: C+ 0:35 Miro Heiskanen scores short-handed goal vs. Wild Miro Heiskanen scores short-handed goal for Dallas Stars Miro Heiskanen, Dallas Stars* The biggest change here from the Finns’ 4 Nations roster: Miro Heiskanen is back, baby. The Stars’ top defenseman suffered a knee injury on Jan. 29, 2025, in a game against the Vegas Golden Knights and was ruled out of the 4 Nations tournament. At the time, the loss was treated with the same magnitude as the Finns losing Barkov. Heiskanen and Lindell are one of the NHL’s top defensive pairings, as Dallas scores 62% of the goals at 5-on-5 when they’re out there. Heiskanen has found his offensive groove again, with 35 points in 41 games, including 20 points at even strength. Ristolainen is another big addition to the blue line after missing 4 Nations with an upper-body injury. He actually just returned to the Flyers after missing several months of game action due to surgery on a ruptured right triceps tendon, his second such procedure in two years. He’s a solid defender and lends a much-needed physical presence in a tournament where that’ll be required against the likes of Canada and the U.S. Maatta, 31, is an old pro at this point. Matinpalo was a minus-5 in three 4 Nations games, pressed into action due to injury. One player we’re excited to watch: Niko Mikkola, who had a breakout season with the Panthers in their second Cup run and showed some unexpected offensive spark. Easily the Finns’ most improved area. Overall defensemen grade: B+ 1:57 Who are notable omissions from the U.S. men’s Olympic hockey roster? Greg Wyshynski identifies Adam Fox, Jason Robertson and Lane Hutson as the biggest snubs from the U.S. men’s Olympic hockey roster. Kevin Lankinen, Vancouver Canucks The same trio that backstopped Finland in the 4 Nations Face-Off, where Saros and Lankinen both made two appearances. Saros relieved Lankinen after he gave up four goals on 13 shots against Canada, but Lankinen was great in Finland’s OT win over Sweden. Saros gave up six goals on 32 shots in a loss to Team USA. Again, take this with the caveat that they were playing behind a blue line decimated by injuries. All three goalies are underwater analytically this season, with Lankinen’s minus-5.23 goals saved above expected the worst mark of the three. Saros has had an uptick in quality in the past month, helping the Predators climb out of their early-season abyss and into playoff contention. Although Alex Lyon has gotten a lot of love for the Sabres’ recent winning streak, Luukkonen had three straight wins giving up just one goal in each. Of the three, Saros has the greatest potential to steal a game against one of the tournament’s titans. But all three are capable. It’s not the glory days of Tuukka Rask and Pekka Rinne, but it’ll do. Overall goaltending grade: B Kapanen wasn’t on the 4 Nations roster last season. In fact, he was playing in the SHL at the time of that tournament, having been loaned to Timrå IK by the Canadiens. In his rookie season with the Canadiens in 2025-26, the 22-year-old forward has 12 goals and 21 points in 40 games, playing his way onto the national team radar and, in the end, the roster. Too little, too late? The 25-year-old Maple Leafs winger was brought in to help fill the offensive void created by Mitch Marner‘s departure but had just nine points in his first 22 games. He has been better and more impactful lately (six points in seven games), but Finland opted for other options up front. He’s the highest-scoring Finn not on the Olympic roster. Even with Barkov’s absence creating an open spot at center, the 23-year-old Canuck didn’t make the cut. He has 11 points in 31 games this season. The Rangers defenseman played three games in the 4 Nations Face-Off, skating to a minus-5. He has been a frequent scratch this season for the Blueshirts, which probably didn’t help his Olympic standing. The one true thing about Finland is that no one wants to play Finland. This roster upholds the tradition of being a pesky team with a handful of elite skilled players and an underlying nasty streak that makes every game against the Finns as brutal as a winter evening in Lapland. This Olympic roster didn’t offer many surprises or shocks — outside of a few tweaks and big injury returns, it’s who they danced with at 4 Nations. But there’s no overcoming the loss of Barkov. When you think about the centers on Canada and the U.S., not to mention players like Germany’s Leon Draisaitl and Sweden’s Leo Carlsson, to not have the dominating defensive force in the NHL seriously limits Finland’s chances to punch up in Italy. Macklin Celebrini, San Jose Sharks It’s palpably unfair that Canada has the two best hockey players on the planet centering its top two lines: MacKinnon, with 32 goals and 66 points in 38 NHL games this season; and McDavid, who has 69 points in 40 games, including 24 goals. Seriously, there should be international sanctions or something for having that kind of arsenal. MacKinnon’s fellow Cole Harbour, Nova Scotia, native Crosby is expected to be on one of his wings. Reinhart projects as the other wing, although Cooper had Stone up with Sid and Nate during the 4 Nations Face-Off. Horvat also has experience playing with MacKinnon and could offer a presence near the net. It’ll be interesting to see what Cooper wants to do with McDavid. Early projections have him playing with Celebrini, the 19-year-old San Jose phenom. Marner and Reinhart played with him at 4 Nations as well. Can Marchand keep up with Connor? That would be fun, given their battles in the Stanley Cup Final last season. Suzuki, a new addition, likely centers the third line. Cooper will have Cirelli and Hagel as a duo down the lineup and on the penalty kill. The three changes here from 4 Nations are swapping in Horvat, Wilson and Suzuki for Sam Bennett, Seth Jarvis and Travis Konecny. Though there can be quibbles about those decisions, there’s no debating that the forward group is the backbone of this team. Overall forwards grade: A+ 0:49 Connor McDavid lights the lamp for Oilers Connor McDavid lights the lamp for Oilers Drew Doughty, Los Angeles Kings There was an opportunity for Team Canada to change its mix on the blue line, but Armstrong said the team decided to run it back with the same group of eight used at the 4 Nations Face-Off. Some of that makes sense: There’s no reason Canada would want to split Makar and Toews, while NHL stars such as Doughty, Morrissey and Theodore were considered locks. If there were changes to be made, it might have been with Parayko and Sanheim. But Armstrong noted those two are tough to play against defensively. “We call it like going through a car wash. They’re all arms and legs. It’s hard to get to the net. It’s like swimming in seaweed. I love those big players,” Armstrong said. Makar’s the star here, one of the most dynamic offensive defensemen the NHL has ever seen. He has 44 points in 38 games and can run the power play. It is a little surprising that Team Canada didn’t opt for another numbers-generating offensive defenseman here, someone such as Evan Bouchard of the Oilers or Jakob Chychrun of the Capitals as an insurance policy, but it’s hard to argue with a group that was good enough to win 4 Nations gold. Overall defensemen grade: B+ 0:37 Makar’s goal ties it for Avs with 8 seconds left Cale Makar nets the tying goal for the Avalanche with eight seconds left in regulation. Jordan Binnington, St. Louis Blues The most dramatic change from the 4 Nations roster is in the crease. Gone are Adin Hill of the Golden Knights, who has been out since October with a lower-body injury; and Sam Montembeault of the Canadiens, whose numbers this season (.863 save percentage, 3.52 goals-against average) certainly challenge Armstrong’s statement that no one played themselves off Team Canada. Enter Kuemper, a Vezina Trophy finalist last season who has had two great seasons with the Kings and earned a Stanley Cup ring with the Avalanche in 2021-22; and Thompson, who has shown that last season’s startling numbers with Washington weren’t those of a one-hit-wonder. He has a .915 save percentage and a 2.33 goals-against average while winning 15 of 28 games. One of the biggest points of debate heading into the Team Canada decision: Would the gold medal game mastery of Binnington at 4 Nations make a strong enough case that his putrid numbers this season could be ignored? Binnington is 7-9-6 for the Blues with an .870 save percentage and a 3.44 goals-against average. No goalie with at least 20 games played this season has worse numbers. His underlying numbers are even more brutal: minus-17.31 goals saved above expected. Armstrong, the general manager of the Blues, said his team hasn’t played well enough in front of Binnington. But he also said that Binnington “never came up as a question mark” within the Team Canada management group. It’s a slightly improved group from 4 Nations but still easily Team Canada’s most vulnerable position. Overall goaltending grade: B- Let’s say there’s a Canadian player with 60 points in 39 games, including 21 goals. Now let’s say that player is just 19. Would you still want him in the biggest pressure-cooker hockey tournament in the world? Of course you would if he’s Celebrini, mature beyond his years and playing some of the best hockey you’ll see this season. What really gave the San Jose Sharks star a boost was playing at the 2025 IIHF world championships for Team Canada, a squad that included Crosby and MacKinnon. After Crosby basically knighted him as the real deal after that tournament, you could have started stitching his Olympic sweater immediately. Wilson’s suspension history and occasional on-ice antics have always obscured how much skill he brings to the Washington Capitals. No doubt the start he had this season — 19 goals, 18 assists in 38 games to lead his team in points — opened some eyes to the fact that this guy can play. Wilson’s an underrated skater, too. The fact that the Olympic ice surface is slightly smaller than an NHL rink didn’t hurt his chances, given his size. Then there’s one other obvious benefit to having Wilson on the roster: To deploy him as an anti-Tkachuks countermeasure if Canada plays the U.S. again. Team Canada had several options at forward but went with Horvat, who wasn’t a member of the 4 Nations roster. The Islanders center had three things going for him: He can get inside and score in the tough areas, as he has 21 goals this season; he’s awesome on faceoffs, winning 57.7% of the time; and as Armstrong noted, Horvat has a history playing on MacKinnon’s wing. 0:17 Bo Horvat’s lone goal wins the shootout for Islanders Bo Horvat’s lone goal wins the shootout for Islanders Easily the buzziest snub of the roster announcement. Bennett won the Conn Smythe Trophy as playoff MVP in helping the Florida Panthers to their second straight Stanley Cup championship. He has earned his reputation as a player who elevates his game in pressure situations with a win-at-all-costs style of play, which is what earned him a spot on the 4 Nations roster. With a priority on scoring in the high-danger areas, one assumed Bennett would have been an obvious choice … and yet, he’s not on the initial roster. The fact that Cooper selected two of his Tampa Bay Lightning role players and Team Canada left Bennett home probably isn’t bringing down the temperature in the Battle of Florida anytime soon. Celebrini, at 19, made Team Canada but Bedard, 20, did not. That’s despite an incredible start of the season for the Chicago Blackhawks with 44 points in 31 games, including 19 goals. There’s some plausible deniability for Team Canada as Bedard is out with a shoulder injury, and his timeline to return to Chicago doesn’t have a ton of clarity. Did the fact that Bedard didn’t play for Canada at the world championships like Celebrini did play into this? Perhaps. Bedard is still in the mix, however, if the Canadians have some injuries. Speaking of dynamic young players, the New York Islanders‘ 18-year-old rookie phenom was left off the Team Canada roster despite playing his way onto the radar this season with nine goals and 16 assists in 40 games. Armstrong didn’t talk much about the snubs, though he made time to discuss Schaefer. “He’s a fantastic talent. He brings you out of your seat every night. He’s got maturity beyond his years on and off the ice,” he said. “And so I was shocked at how quickly he worked his way into our conversations, and that’s a credit to him.” 0:56 Matthew Schaefer makes NHL history with OT winner for Islanders Matthew Schaefer becomes the youngest player in NHL history to score an overtime goal in the regular season. Like Bedard, Scheifele is going to be one of the next forwards in line as an injury replacement before the tournament — which was the same position he was in at the 4 Nations Face-Off. The Winnipeg Jets center has 18 goals and 27 assists in 37 games this season. Two of McDavid’s teammates were left off the Team Canada roster. In Bouchard’s case, some believed that Canada might take the defenseman with the booming shot, who has seen goals and 30 assists in 40 games this season. But his reputation for defensive lapses didn’t do him any favors. In Hyman’s case, the 33-year-old winger has 11 goals and 10 assists in 21 games since returning from injury. For a team constantly stressing over who can play effectively with McDavid, it’s a little surprising they didn’t take someone whose proven he can. (See also: Chris Kunitz, Crosby’s wing man, at the 2014 Olympics). A justified snub and a real bummer for Jarvis, who played for Canada at the 4 Nations Face-Off. The tenacious Carolina Hurricanes winger is week-to-week after crashing into the goal post at a high velocity against Florida on Dec. 20. Said coach Rod Brind’Amour: “It’s not good. He’s going to be out for a while.” Jarvis had 19 goals on the season. Mackenzie Blackwood and Scott Wedgewood The Avalanche have the league’s best goals-against average this season but neither of their goalies got the call. Wedgewood (17-1-4, .919 save percentage) was probably a long shot to make the team, but many believed that Blackwood (12-1-1, .924 save percentage) had a shot. The lack of big-game experience for both of them was likely a factor, given the history that Binnington and Kuemper both have. 0:31 Jack Hughes lights the lamp Jack Hughes lights the lamp Even with specious goaltending and some questionable roster decisions, Team Canada is the tournament favorite in the 2026 Winter Olympics for two reasons. The first is the unmatched offensive talent that the Canadians have up front, particularly at the center spot. The second is that this is a roster loaded with champions at every level. International tournaments. Stanley Cup Finals. And in the case of some of the veterans such as Crosby and Doughty, at the Olympics themselves. You can’t truly act like you’ve been there until you’ve been there. Team Canada has been there and is primed to win a third straight gold medal in Olympic best-on-best tournaments.
Overall team grade: B
Finland
Forwards
Sebastian Aho, Carolina Hurricanes*
Mikael Granlund, Anaheim Ducks
Erik Haula, Nashville Predators
Roope Hintz, Dallas Stars
Kaapo Kakko, Seattle Kraken
Oliver Kapanen, Montreal Canadiens
Joel Kiviranta, Colorado Avalanche
Artturi Lehkonen, Colorado Avalanche
Anton Lundell, Florida Panthers
Eetu Luostarinen, Florida Panthers
Mikko Rantanen, Dallas Stars*
Teuvo Teravainen, Chicago Blackhawks
Eeli Tolvanen, Seattle Kraken
Defensemen
Henri Jokiharju, Boston Bruins
Mikko Lehtonen, ZSC Lions (NLA)
Esa Lindell, Dallas Stars*
Olli Maatta, Utah Mammoth
Nikolas Matinpalo, Ottawa Senators
Niko Mikkola, Florida Panthers
Rasmus Ristolainen, Philadelphia Flyers
Goaltenders
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen, Buffalo Sabres
Juuse Saros, Nashville Predators*
Surprises
Snubs
Overall team grade: C+
Canada
Forwards
Anthony Cirelli, Tampa Bay Lightning
Sidney Crosby, Pittsburgh Penguins*
Brandon Hagel, Tampa Bay Lightning
Bo Horvat, New York Islanders
Nathan MacKinnon, Colorado Avalanche*
Brad Marchand, Florida Panthers
Mitch Marner, Vegas Golden Knights
Connor McDavid, Edmonton Oilers*
Brayden Point, Tampa Bay Lightning*
Sam Reinhart, Florida Panthers*
Mark Stone, Vegas Golden Knights
Nick Suzuki, Montreal Canadiens
Tom Wilson, Washington Capitals
Defensemen
Thomas Harley, Dallas Stars
Cale Makar, Colorado Avalanche*
Josh Morrissey, Winnipeg Jets
Colton Parayko, St. Louis Blues
Travis Sanheim, Philadelphia Flyers
Shea Theodore, Vegas Golden Knights
Devon Toews, Colorado Avalanche
Goaltenders
Darcy Kuemper, Los Angeles Kings
Logan Thompson, Washington Capitals
Surprises
Snubs
Overall team grade: A-
The NFL playoff field is set, and you know these teams. For months, you’ve been watching them, talking about them and drawing conclusions about them. But some of those conclusions are wrong.
It’s not your fault. The week-to-week nature of the NFL lends itself quite naturally to missing the forest for the trees. You see a team one week, notice something about it, watch that same team a week or so later and notice the same thing again. And then you just figure that thing to be true — that it’s part of what defines that team.
But what we’re doing here — with the 18-week regular season concluded and four months’ worth of data to sort through — is step back, look at the bigger picture and figure out which of the things we think we know about each playoff team might not, in fact, be true. For some of these teams, our conclusions might be encouraging. For some, they might be cause for concern. But hopefully this offers at least a little bit of a different way to look at all 14 playoff teams as they get ready to prove us all right or wrong (or a little of both).
So here are our annual playoff myth-busters, with a big assist from ESPN researcher Paul “Hembo” Hembekides and the ESPN Research team. Let’s start with the NFC, and teams are ordered by seeding.
Jump to a team:
BUF | CAR | CHI | DEN | GB
HOU | JAX | LAC | LAR | NE
PHI | PIT | SF | SEA
NFC
Myth: Their run game isn’t good enough.
The Seahawks finished the season ranked 27th in the NFL in offensive rush EPA, which backs up the seasonlong narrative that they weren’t running the ball consistently well and relied too much on their (admittedly outstanding) defense and wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Seattle scored the third-most points of any team in the regular season but finished outside the top 10 in rushing yards per game despite tying for third in rush attempts. Its 4.1 yards per carry was better than only seven teams (although three of those clubs also made the playoffs).
Why it’s a myth: They’ve run the ball a lot better over the second half of the season.
From Weeks 10 through 18, Seattle’s running backs ranked fourth in the league in offensive rush EPA, behind only those of the Ravens, Rams and Patriots. Kenneth Walker III and Zach Charbonnet combined for 2,183 scrimmage yards. Yes, other teams use two-back rotations that were more productive this season. The Rams’ Kyren Williams and Blake Corum combined for 2,315 scrimmage yards. The Steelers’ Jaylen Warren and Kenneth Gainwell had 2,314. But the point is not that Seattle runs the ball better than anyone, it’s that it runs it well enough — and better as the season has gone along.
Smith-Njigba is a brilliant and vital player, but his highest target-share game of the season came in a September loss to the 49ers. The Seahawks’ offense began to ask more of its run game and less of Sam Darnold, Smith-Njigba and the pass game in the second half, and conclusions we were drawing about them in the first half might not hold up in the playoffs.
Myth: Caleb Williams‘ inaccuracy hurts the offense.
The Bears had a dominant run game this season. Their defense excelled at taking the ball away. And Williams — their brilliantly talented second-year quarterback — made some fourth-quarter magic in big wins. But his completion percentage of 58.1 is abysmal and ranked 32nd in the league among qualified starters. In this day and age, it’s tough to imagine a team winning a Super Bowl with a quarterback who isn’t completing 60% of his passes.
Why it’s a myth: Williams has improved significantly at avoiding negative plays.
Williams led the NFL with 40 throwaways, which obviously affect completion percentages but aren’t necessarily a bad thing. Five of the top seven completion percentage games of his season actually came in Bears losses, while they won nine of his 10 worst. He had the league’s second-lowest pressure-to-sack ratio (behind Brock Purdy), his pressure-to-interception ratio was third best, and he threw nine touchdowns when pressured (behind only Justin Herbert‘s 10) to just one interception. Sure, his completion percentage when pressured was 36.4 and surely drags down the overall number. But that doesn’t tell the whole story.
New coach Ben Johnson stressed to Williams when he got the job last year that, while avoiding interceptions was something he did well as a rookie, there were other negative plays he had to get better at avoiding if he and the offense wanted to have success. And Williams is doing an excellent job of staying away from interceptions and sacks, especially when he has faced pressure this season. That’s a benefit to the offense no matter what the overall completion percentage says.
2:20
Should the Bears be worried about the Packers matchup?
Damien Woody, Dan Orlovsky and Rex Ryan discuss why the Bears could run into trouble in their wild-card matchup with the Packers.
Myth: Saquon Barkley is the key to the offense.
This time last season, the Eagles were a juggernaut on their way to a Super Bowl title. The key to the whole thing was Barkley’s historic season. He had 2,005 rushing yards, 2,283 total yards from scrimmage and 15 total touchdowns in the 2024 regular season to lead an Eagles offense that was one of the best and most efficient in the league. This season, Barkley’s production dipped significantly, down to 1,140 rushing yards, 1,413 scrimmage yards and 9 total touchdowns. An Eagles team that was fourth in offensive efficiency in 2024 ranked 19th in that same category in 2025.
Why it’s a myth: It’s actually Jalen Hurts.
While last season’s offense seemed to center around Barkley and the Eagles’ ability to generate explosive plays in the run game, this season’s offense seems to much more closely follow the performance of the team’s Super Bowl MVP quarterback. Barkley is averaging 91.5 scrimmage yards in Eagles wins this season and 81.4 in losses. He’s averaging 3.9 yards per carry in wins and 4.7 in losses. Seven of his touchdowns have come in the Eagles’ 11 wins, whereas he has five in losses. In other words, there doesn’t seem to be evidence of a dramatic difference in Barkley’s performance in wins versus his performance in losses.
Hurts, on the other hand, sees a great deal more variance. In Eagles wins, Hurts has a 64.2 QBR, a 5.1 completion percentage over expected (NFL Next Gen Stats), 19 touchdown passes and zero interceptions. In losses, he has a 38.2 QBR, a 0.1 CPOE, 6 touchdown passes and 6 interceptions. Just a lot of evidence to suggest that Philadelphia’s success in 2025 is tied much more closely to Hurts’ performance than it is to what Barkley does.
Myth: They can’t possibly beat the Rams again.
Carolina’s Week 13 home upset of the Rams was one of the more surprising results of the entire regular season. The Rams came in as the hottest team in the league, having won six games in a row to get to 9-2. They had beaten the 49ers, Seahawks and Buccaneers in the previous three weeks and seemed poised to take control of the NFC playoff race. But on that rainy Sunday in Charlotte, Matthew Stafford threw two early interceptions and lost a crucial late-game fumble. Bryce Young threw two fourth-down touchdowns (and one third-down TD pass), and the Panthers got out with a 31-28 victory.
It felt a little fluky at the time, and with the Panthers limping to their division title with an 8-9 record, it feels unlikely to happen again in the wild-card round.
Why it’s a myth: The Panthers can kind of beat anyone.
Sure, they can also lose to anyone. They were 8-9, after all. But Carolina had eight wins as an underdog this season, by far the most in the NFL. (The Steelers, Bears, Jaguars and Falcons each had five.) The Panthers will be the seventh team with a record of .500 or worse to host a wild-card game. Of the previous six, four won the contest.
The 2008 Chargers beat the Colts. The 2010 Seahawks beat the defending Super Bowl champion Saints in the Marshawn Lynch “Beast Quake” game. The Tim Tebow Broncos of 2011 knocked off the Steelers. And the 2014 Panthers beat the Cardinals. The last two teams to host a wild-card game with a regular-season record of .500 or worse did lose — the 2020 Washington Football Team to the Buccaneers and the 2022 Buccaneers to the Cowboys. But the overall record of 4-2 certainly shows it can be done.
Carolina’s big wide receivers were a problem for the Rams’ cornerbacks in the first matchup and could be again if the Panthers can do a good enough job of keeping the Rams’ rush off Young. All I’m saying is it wouldn’t be the most stunning potential upset of the first round.
Myth: Matthew Stafford should win MVP because Drake Maye played a soft schedule.
It appears the MVP race is down to Rams veteran Stafford and Patriots second-year star Maye. The knock on Maye has been that he didn’t beat anyone especially good. The only teams in the playoff field the Patriots beat this season were the Bills (to whom they also lost) and the Panthers (who finished the season with a losing record).
Stafford led the league with 4,707 passing yards and 46 touchdown passes, threw eight interceptions and had a Total QBR of 71.0 — fourth best in the league. Maye had 4,394 passing yards, 31 touchdown passes, 8 interceptions and a league-leading Total QBR of 77.2.
Why it’s a myth: Maye has just simply been better.
Total QBR adjusts for opponent quality in its calculation, so the fact that Maye finished first in the league in that category and Stafford fourth has nothing to do with strength of schedule. It also should matter that Maye played better against the soft parts of his schedule than Stafford did against his. Just look at games against NFC South opponents. The Patriots went 4-0 in those matchups, and Maye turned the ball over a total of three times. The Rams went 2-2 against the NFC South, and Stafford turned it over six times, including the fumble that probably cost the Rams the game against Carolina.
Overall, Maye was considerably better than Stafford in common opponent games. They played six of them. Maye was 6-0 with an 81.6 QBR and a 4.3 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Stafford was 4-2 with a 57.8 QBR and a 2.3 touchdown-to-interception ratio against those teams.
The only number that shows Stafford obviously better than Maye this season is the touchdown passes. But don’t forget that a somewhat stunning 16 of Stafford’s touchdown passes were 4 yards or less (Maye had nine) and eight came from the 1-yard line (Maye had three). Maye also had four rushing touchdowns, while Stafford hasn’t had one since 2022.
Give the award to Stafford if you want, but don’t do it because of relative strength of schedule. Maye had the better year, even once we adjust for that.
1:25
Why Orlovsky is ‘slightly’ worried about Bo Nix in playoffs
Dan Orlovsky and Rex Ryan break down the concerns they have for Bo Nix and the Broncos heading into the playoffs.
Myth: Christian McCaffrey just had his best season as a 49er.
In a season in which it felt like every significant player on the 49ers missed time with injury, McCaffrey did not. He played in all 17 games and was second in the league in yards from scrimmage with 2,126. That included 1,202 rushing yards on 311 carries and 924 receiving yards on 102 catches. Only five players in the league caught more passes than McCaffrey; four were wide receivers and one was a tight end. The next highest reception total among running backs in 2025 was Bijan Robinson’s 79.
McCaffrey also had 17 total touchdowns (10 rushing, seven receiving), which put him third in the league behind Jonathan Taylor and Jahmyr Gibbs. Simply put, CMC was a rock when the Niners needed one. The only year in his career in which he posted more scrimmage yards was his 2019 season in Carolina, and the only two years in which he had more touchdowns were 2019 and his 2023 season in San Francisco.
Why it’s a myth: Well, 2023 happened … but his efficiency also wasn’t great this season.
McCaffrey averaged only 3.9 yards per carry this season. That figure ranked 39th in the NFL, right behind Isiah Pacheco and ahead of Chuba Hubbard. And the 49ers’ run game was very average, ranking 22nd in rush EPA. McCaffrey’s contributions as a receiver are what made his season special and helped win fantasy leagues and drag the banged-up 49ers into the playoffs. But overall, his 2025 season doesn’t hold a candle to 2023.
The starkest difference is in early-down efficiency. On first and second down in 2023, McCaffrey averaged 5.4 yards per carry, had 1,337 rushing yards and scored 14 rushing touchdowns. This season, those same numbers were 3.9 yards per carry, 1,064 rushing yards and 7 rushing touchdowns. Workmanlike, for sure, but not spectacular.
Again, McCaffrey was what the 49ers needed him to be this season — a volume eater and target mismatch in the passing game. But he’s not the explosive early-down difference-maker that he was a couple of years ago when the 49ers made it all the way to overtime in the Super Bowl.
Myth: They don’t have a true No. 1 wide receiver.
Packers coach Matt LaFleur had that famous quote a little over a year ago about how he wants “to vomit” when people ask him about his No. 1 wide receiver. LaFleur’s point was that it doesn’t matter — that he and QB Jordan Love trust whoever’s out there and that he kind of likes having an interchangeable group of WRs that he can mix and match depending on the week and the opponent.
The Packers didn’t have a single receiver with more than 55 catches, 724 yards or 6 touchdowns in 2025. Last season, their team leaders in those categories had 55 catches, 857 yards and 7 touchdowns. The year before it was 64, 793 and 8. You get the idea.
Why it’s a myth: Christian Watson.
Watson missed the first six games of this season while recovering from a knee injury, which has been his biggest problem as a pro. He returned around the same time that the Packers lost tight end Tucker Kraft to a season-ending injury and helped fill in a lot of the explosive-play element their offense lost when Kraft went down. Love’s QBR is 77.7 when Watson is on the field and 69.5 when he’s not. His completion percentage over expectation is 5.5% when Watson is on the field and 2.5% when he’s not, per Next Gen Stats. His touchdown-to-interception ratio is 5.5 with Watson and 3.0 without. And in the 10 weeks this season in which Watson has played, Love’s QBR of 76.7 is the second best in the NFL, behind only Purdy.
The 34th pick in the 2022 draft, Watson has the profile of a No. 1 WR. Injuries have kept him from consistently performing like one, but when he’s out there, the effect he has on Love and the offense makes a strong case that he is a WR1.
AFC
Myth: Their record in close games is going to catch up with them.
The Broncos were 11-2 this season in games decided by eight points or fewer. They are proud of this. They do not view it as luck, and coach Sean Payton has said as much in news conferences. Players on the team have told me when I’ve covered their games this season that this was a major point of emphasis in their offseason. They were 2-6 in one-score games last season and wanted to be the kind of team that finished close contests off. They believe they’re better equipped than their opponents to stay strong in the fourth quarter and make game-deciding plays in game-deciding moments — especially in home games at Denver’s high altitude.
All of that might be true, but decades’ worth of data says this is the kind of thing that’s prone to regression and won’t stay the case if we give it long enough. Just look at the Chiefs, who went 11-0 in one-score games last season (12-0 if you count the playoffs) and were 1-9 in one-score contests in 2025. If it can catch up to Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid, you have to think it could catch up to anyone.
Why it’s a myth: It isn’t the 2026 season quite yet.
The natural regression to the mean when it comes to a team’s record in one-score games doesn’t have to happen in the same season. Over the past 10 seasons, 11 of the 20 teams to participate in the Super Bowl have had winning percentages better than .700 in their one-score games in that regular season. I just mentioned the Chiefs, but the Eagles — the team that beat them in the Super Bowl — were also 8-2 in one-score regular-season games in 2024. In 2022, when those same two teams met in the Super Bowl, the Chiefs had been 7-3 and the Eagles 7-1 in one-score games that regular season. The last Broncos team to win the Super Bowl, going back 10 years, was 9-3 in one-score games that regular season. The Panthers team they beat in that Super Bowl had gone 7-1 in one-score games.
Payton’s point has seemed to be that there’s some sort of art to winning close games, and that really good teams are just better at it. There’s also a mentality a team can develop over the course of a season that convinces it that it’s good at such a thing, and that could help in the critical moments in a league in which the week-to-week margins are so small. Point is, we have a lot of history that tells us teams that are great in one-score games can and do get to the Super Bowl.
2:04
Stephen A.: The Steelers got lucky in win over Ravens
Stephen A. Smith explains why his enthusiasm for the Steelers is tempered after they defeated the Ravens to win the AFC North.
Myth: The Patriots’ run defense is going to be a liability in the playoffs.
New England’s run defense was a big talking point early in the season. Until Tampa Bay’s Sean Tucker got 53 yards against the Pats in Week 10, no opposing running back had reached 50 rushing yards in a game. From Weeks 1 through 11, they ranked fifth in the NFL with 2.2 yards allowed before first contact per rush and 14th with a defensive rush success rate of 57.7%.
But from Weeks 12 through 17, the Patriots had one of the worst run defenses in the league. Over that six-week stretch, New England ranked 31st with 3.0 yards before first contact allowed per rush and 32nd with a 45.2% defensive rushing success rate. A team such as Buffalo, which rushed for 118 yards in its Week 5 loss to the Pats and 168 in its Week 15 victory in Foxborough, could be positioned to take advantage of a weakened Pats defense in a postseason matchup.
Why it’s a myth: Milton Williams.
The big defensive tackle signed a four-year, $104 million deal with the Patriots in March in free agency. He got injured in the team’s Week 11 game against the Jets and didn’t return until Sunday’s season finale against the Dolphins. That likely explains a lot about why the Patriots struggled so badly against the run from Weeks 12 through 17. New England spent big to sign Williams, who was drawing interest from multiple teams, and the numbers when he’s on the field vs. when he’s not indicate why that was a good idea — and why his return bodes extremely well for New England’s chances of shoring up that run defense in the playoffs. The Pats also expect to have injured linebacker Robert Spillane back in time for the postseason, which will help even more.
Myth: Trevor Lawrence is fixed and one of the best QBs in the league.
Lawrence threw 15 touchdown passes against just one interception in his final six games of the regular season. The Jaguars won their last eight games to secure a division title, and entering Sunday, they were still in position to potentially get the 1-seed in the AFC playoffs (though they did not). The first pick in the 2021 NFL draft, Lawrence appears to finally be living up to his potential under first-year coach Liam Coen and has led the Jaguars to their second 13-win season in team history — first this century.
Why it’s a myth: The stats say Lawrence is pretty much the same guy he has always been.
Lawrence’s Total QBR for the season was 58.3, 15th best in the league and just a smidge ahead of where he has always been. From 2022 to 2024, his year-by-year Total QBR numbers were 56.1, 56.9 and 56.1. His completion percentage over expectation (Next Gen Stats) last season was minus-4.0, which ranked 33rd in a 32-team league. This year? It was minus-2.7, which ranked 28th.
Now, this isn’t a criticism. Heck, the guy who’s 33rd in CPOE is Caleb Williams, and his team is the No. 2 seed in the NFC playoffs. But the idea that Lawrence is playing better than he ever has isn’t supported by the underlying numbers. Coen should be given credit for figuring out the whole picture around him and putting him in an offense that minimizes his weaknesses and maximizes his strengths. The Jaguars’ rushing differential has seen the greatest year-over-year improvement of any team in the league. They were outgained by 525 rushing yards last season, and their rush differential was plus-501 this season.
Lawrence is the same player he has always been, just with a better structure around him. It’s not necessarily that he’s fixed; it’s that maybe the Jaguars are.
Myth: This is still a classic Steelers defense.
T.J. Watt returned from a punctured lung for the regular-season finale against the Ravens. Cameron Heyward played inspired football Sunday night at age 36, looking determined to make sure this wasn’t his or Aaron Rodgers‘ final game. Nick Herbig. Alex Highsmith. Patrick Queen. Jalen Ramsey. The names, man. The names give it the feel of a vintage Steelers, big-play defense that can get after quarterbacks and get the big stops in the big moments.
Only five teams in the league had more sacks than the Steelers’ 48. Only three had more takeaways than their 27.
Why it’s a myth: This team is way too reliant on sacks and turnovers.
The Steelers ranked 14th in the league in opponent points allowed per drive at 2.1 — which is fine, kind of middle of the pack. On drives on which they didn’t record a sack, however, that average points per drive goes up to 2.5, which ranked 23rd in the league. Their defense basically doesn’t win unless it gets a sack.
The team also isn’t great at scoring when it doesn’t generate a turnover. Pittsburgh scored the 15th-most points in 2025, but it was third in scoring off turnovers behind only the Jaguars and Bears. A whopping 25.4% of Pittsburgh’s points this season came off turnovers. Only the Browns (25.8%) had a higher such percentage, and they scored only 279 points (the Steelers had 391).
There is no doubt the Pittsburgh offense needs its defense’s help. And the defense provided enough to get this team to 10 wins and a division title when Baltimore’s rookie kicker missed from 44 yards Sunday night. But it feels like another season in which the playoff competition is going to make Pittsburgh look very run-of-the-mill.
Myth: C.J. Stroud isn’t the same player he was two years ago. In 2023 when the Texans snagged the division title, Stroud was Offensive Rookie of the Year and finished in the top 10 in MVP voting. He threw for 4,108 yards that season, along with 23 touchdown passes and only five interceptions. But his production dipped in 2024. And this season, he missed three games with a concussion and is averaging about the same number of passing yards (217.2) as he did last season (219.2). He also threw just 19 touchdowns and eight interceptions. Why it’s a myth: He’s still great when it matters and still isn’t getting much help. Stroud had the seventh-best QBR in the fourth quarter and the seventh best on third down in the entire league. He also had the seventh-best QBR when outside the pocket, which is of particular importance because the overhauled Houston offensive line still isn’t doing much to protect him. That unit ranked 30th in pass block win rate, ahead of only the Lions and Chargers. The OL also ranked dead last in run block win rate, which backs up the numbers that say the Texans’ run game isn’t helping anything, either. Houston’s 108.9 rushing yards per game ranked 22nd in the league. It ranked 28th in the league at 3.9 yards per rush and 24th in the league in yards before first contact per rush. The Texans are winning with defense, but when their offense has a good game, it tends to be because of Stroud, not in spite of him. Myth: Their run defense will keep them from getting to the Super Bowl. Buffalo has struggled to stop the run all season. Only the Commanders, Giants, Jets and Bengals allowed more rushing yards this season than the 136.2 per game the Bills did. No one allowed more rushing touchdowns than the 24 Buffalo allowed, either. And it was 26th in defensive rush success rate and 31st in defensive rush EPA. No matter how you slice it, the Bills’ run defense this season was terrible. Why it’s a myth: They might not have to play a great running team in the playoffs. With Baltimore failing to make it into the field, the Patriots are the only playoff team besides Buffalo that ranked in the top 10 in the NFL in rushing yards per game. (And they had to run for 243 in Sunday’s regular-season finale to get there.) The Chargers ranked 12th, the Broncos 16th, the Jaguars 20th, the Texans 22nd and the Steelers 26th. Buffalo wouldn’t be the worst run defense ever to reach the Super Bowl. (The 2006 Colts allowed 173 rushing yards per game in the regular season and were worse across the board in just about every metric.) But it would be one of the worst. The good news is, there isn’t a team in the AFC that’s nearly as good at running the ball as the Bills are. Myth: They ask too much of Justin Herbert to carry their offense. The story of the Chargers’ season has centered on their offensive line injuries. Both starting tackles, Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt, have been out with season-ending injuries for quite some time. Even though he sat out the final game, Herbert was contacted 206 times — 34 more times than the next most contacted QB in the league (Maye). Only Geno Smith and Cam Ward were sacked more than the 54 times Herbert was dropped. He threw the most touchdowns when pressured (10) of anyone in the league, but only Joe Flacco and Sam Darnold threw more interceptions (7) when pressured than Herbert’s six. Why it’s a myth: Their offense isn’t that pass-heavy. The Chargers dropped back to pass on 48.8% of their offensive plays, the 20th-highest rate in the league. Heck, the Steelers had a higher percentage of pass plays than the Chargers. Just 63.6% of their offensive yardage came via the pass, which was also the 20th-highest figure in the league. The Chargers ranked 12th in the league in rushing yards per game, even with their top two running backs having missed huge chunks of the season with injury. They’re just kind of a middle-of-the-road offense overall. Herbert does get hit too much, but it’s not because they’re putting him in an unusual number of vulnerable situations.
Ohio State wide receiver Carnell Tate is leaving school early and declaring for the NFL draft, sources told ESPN on Tuesday.
Tate is projected as a top-10 pick in ESPN analyst Mel Kiper’s current rankings, the latest in a gilded line of high-end Buckeye receivers. Tate caught 51 passes for 875 yards and nine touchdowns for Ohio State this year.
He did that in 11 games, as he missed three games because of injury. He flashed dominance throughout the year, as he had 183 yards receiving against Minnesota, five catches for 82 yards and a touchdown against Michigan, and 124 yards and a touchdown against Penn State.
Tate, who is 6-foot-3, 195 pounds, finishes his three-year career with 1,872 yards receiving and 14 touchdowns. In a program filled with the sport’s top wide receiver prospects, he played in 13 games as a true freshman and flashed star power as a sophomore with 52 catches for 733 yards on Ohio State’s national title winning team.
Tate’s sophomore year included seven catches against Texas for 87 yards in the College Football Playoff semifinals.
He projects as the latest OSU first-round receiver; over the past four years, there have been five first-rounders. Ohio State’s run includes both Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave in 2022, Jaxon Smith-Njigba in 2023, Marvin Harrison Jr. in 2024 and Emeka Egbuka last year.
Last year, OSU was the first team in the common draft era to have wide receivers picked in the first round in four straight years. Tate projects to extend that unprecedented run.
A veteran NFL scout summed up Tate to ESPN this way: “He’s very smooth, fast and a good athlete. He has good hands and ball skills, as he reminds me of Pro Bowl receiver Chris Chambers, but a taller version, coming out of college.”
-
Daniel Oyefusi
-
Jeremy Fowler
Close
Jeremy Fowler
senior NFL national reporter
- Jeremy Fowler is a senior national NFL writer for ESPN, covering the entire league including breaking news. Jeremy also contributes to SportsCenter both as a studio analyst and a sideline reporter covering for NFL games. He is an Orlando, Florida native who joined ESPN in 2014 after covering college football for CBSSports.com.
Less than six months ago, coach Kevin Stefanski had a strong show of support from Cleveland Browns owners Dee and Jimmy Haslam despite the organization attempting to rebound from a 3-14 campaign during the 2024 season.
But Jimmy Haslam said another three-win season wouldn’t cut it.
“We’ve got to do better. I think we’ll know what better looks like,” Haslam said.
Ultimately, a 5-12 record in 2025 wasn’t better. The Browns on Monday announced the firing of Stefanski, who guided Cleveland the past six seasons and led the franchise to two playoff appearances while also winning two NFL Coach of the Year awards (2020 and 2023). Stefanski leaves Cleveland with a 45-56 regular-season record and a 1-2 record in the postseason.
In Monday’s statement announcing their decision to fire Stefanski, the Haslams also stated that general manager Andrew Berry would be retained and would lead the search for the team’s 11th head coach since 1999.
What’s next for the Browns as they enter an offseason stocked with two first-round picks in the 2026 NFL draft and a quarterback situation that is unsettled at best? Browns reporter Daniel Oyefusi and senior NFL insider Jeremy Fowler answer all the pressing questions in the wake of Stefanski’s firing.
What led the Browns to move on from Stefanski?
At the start of training camp in late July, the Haslams acknowledged the team would have to take its time rebuilding its foundation after a three-win finish in 2024. But in a statement announcing the firing of Stefanski, the owners said that the results over the past two seasons — a combined 8-26 record — “have not been satisfactory.”
The issues were especially prominent on offense, which has been Stefanski’s specialty. Under Stefanski, the Browns used an NFL-high 13 different starting quarterbacks, and per ESPN Research, Browns QBs under the coach have ranked bottom five in Total QBR, yards per attempt and completion percentage.
Cleveland struggled to find a consistent answer at quarterback, and its core offensive players began to age such as offensive lineman Joel Bitonio, Wyatt Teller and Jack Conklin, as well as tight end David Njoku and running back Nick Chubb. However, Stefanski wasn’t able to steer the unit to support an elite defense the past two seasons, both of which saw him give up playcalling duties.
Haslam on Monday said there is still work to do in rebuilding the roster — especially on offense — but he believed this year’s team was capable of winning more games. — Oyefusi
Why is Cleveland keeping general manager Andrew Berry?
Berry, 38, will not only remain in his current role, but he will lead the search for the franchise’s next head coach. The Haslams, in their statement, noted the “exciting young core to build upon,” which Berry has been responsible for building. He delivered a productive 2025 draft class and also netted Cleveland an extra first-round pick in 2026 by trading back from the second overall pick to No. 5 with the Jacksonville Jaguars on the opening night of the 2025 draft.
Haslam on Monday also referenced other personnel moves made by Berry, including the free agent signing of defensive tackle Maliek Collins, finding breakout kicker Andre Szmyt and the in-season trade for cornerback Tyson Campbell.
With Stefanski out, there is potentially a stronger spotlight on Berry, who arrived in Cleveland with Stefanski in 2020. He’ll need to continue to build on both sides of the ball and, of course, find a quarterback. — Oyefusi
Who are the potential candidates for the job?
One factor in determining the Browns’ direction is seasoned defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz, whose second-ranked defense should be stout once again in 2026. The Browns could push to retain Schwartz and pair him with an offensive-minded head coach. Jimmy Haslam said Monday the organization thinks highly of Schwartz and would like to keep him in the building. Remember: Maximizing a talented 2025 draft class filled with intriguing offensive options is paramount.
So, certainly the Browns could interview the likes of Seahawks offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak, Bills offensive coordinator Joe Brady, Chiefs offensive coordinator Matt Nagy and Bengals offensive coordinator Dan Pitcher, a possible sleeper for the job. Some of the hottest coaching candidates are defensive coordinators, so expect candidates such as the Rams’ Chris Shula, Packers’ Jeff Hafley, Broncos’ Vance Joseph and Chargers’ Jesse Minter.
Haslam said he doesn’t have a preference on finding a coach who specializes in either offense or defense but is looking for a good leader to build a strong culture. — Fowler and Oyefusi
How likely is Stefanski to land another head coach job this offseason?
Several sources familiar with the leaguewide hiring process expect Stefanski to become a viable head coaching candidate — quite possibly among the most viable. This year’s field is the most wide open in years, without a clear-cut top target. Having head coaching experience helps. As one high-ranking NFL executive put it, two-time coach of the year recipients don’t come available very often. Doing so in Cleveland only amplifies that feat.
The Tennessee Titans and New York Giants will likely want to speak with Stefanski. They’ve had weeks to research potential candidates and anticipated Stefanski could become available. One ding on Stefanski’s résumé is his relinquishing of offensive playcalling in back-to-back years, taking the sheen off his offensive cachet. But Stefanski lacked elite offensive weapons at his disposal the past two years, to be sure, and the burdensome Deshaun Watson contract inhibited progress for the entire operation. Teams with job openings will understand all of that. — Fowler
How will the coaching change impact the Browns’ QB situation?
This is a last-place AFC North team that needs to start over at the most important position regardless of whom it hires. Perhaps Shedeur Sanders can be a bridge option in 2026? But having two first-round picks presents a unique chance to get a premier passer if the draft falls right. Expect the Browns to explore free agent options such as Daniel Jones or Malik Willis.
Watson enters the final year of his record-breaking contract. While it feels like the relationship is over, he is an option and was once the NFL passing leader. Putting him on the field again could affect the Browns’ cap savings from the insurance policy the team took out on his $230-million contract. — Fowler
South India cotton yarn seen rising on fibre price uptrend
Let’s play myth-busters for the NFL playoffs: 14 teams, 14 things that aren’t quite right
Yemen separatist leader flees, avoids Riyadh talks to tackle southern crisis
-
Entertainment1 week agoGeorge Clooney, his wife Amal and their twins granted French citizenship
-
Sports1 week agoMorocco reach AFCON last 16 | The Express Tribune
-
Politics1 week agoThree Turkish police officers, six Daesh militants killed in clash, amid national crackdown
-
Business1 week agoA major drop in the prices of petroleum products is likely with the arrival of the New Year. – SUCH TV
-
Fashion1 week agoUK year-end review 2025: Seeking new avenues
-
Entertainment1 week agoPrince George to shine as key royal figure in 2026
-
Entertainment1 week agoBeyoncé is now a billionaire, according to Forbes
-
Sports1 week agoICC rates MCG pitch ‘unsatisfactory’ after two-day Test