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OPEC+ output hike pushes up crude prices amid Russian supply risks | The Express Tribune
Oil extended gains on Tuesday, supported by the latest oil output hike from OPEC+ being smaller than anticipated, expectations that China will continue stockpiling oil and concerns over potential new sanctions on Russia.
Eight members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies agreed on Sunday to raise production from October by 137,000 barrels per day, lower than the increases of about 550,000 bpd they made for September and August.
Brent crude rose 47 cents, or 0.7%, to $66.49 a barrel by 0910 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate crude climbed 72 cents, or 1.2%, to $62.98.
“Prices are holding up amid speculation that production will not rise by the amount the eight members have allowed themselves, and not least the fact that China, according to data, has been buying around 0.5 million barrels per day towards stockpiling,” said Ole Hansen of Saxo Bank.
China’s stockpiling of oil, which has helped soak up excess production this year, is likely to continue at a similar rate in 2026, the chief strategist for commodity trading house Gunvor said on Monday
Crude is also drawing support from the reduced amount of unused production capacity in OPEC+, said Giovanni Staunovo of UBS. A drop in spare capacity limits the group’s ability to cover for sudden supply shocks and tends to support prices.
“The realization that the October OPEC+ supply increase could be 60,000-70,000 barrels per day is one factor, the other is that OPEC+ spare capacity is much smaller than many thought,” he said of the reasons for the rally.
Speculation of more sanctions on Russia after the country’s biggest air attack on Ukraine set fire to a government building in Kyiv also supported prices. US President Donald Trump said he was ready to move to a second phase of restrictions.
Further sanctions on Russia would diminish its oil supply to global markets, which could support higher oil prices.
Also in focus is the expectation that the US Federal Reserve, which meets next week, will cut interest rates. Lower rates reduce consumer borrowing costs and can boost economic growth and demand for oil.
Kevin PeacheyCost of living correspondent, BBC News
Getty ImagesContactless card payments are set to exceed £100 and potentially become unlimited under new proposals to allow banks and other providers to set limits.
The proposals from the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) mean entering a four-digit PIN to make a card payment could become even more of a rarity for shoppers.
If approved, purchases which can cost more than £100 – such as a big supermarket shop, or large family meal in a restaurant – could be made with a tap of a card.
The move would bring cards in line with payments made through digital wallets on smartphones which have no restriction, and reflects the ongoing changes in the way people pay.
When contactless card payments were introduced in 2007, the transaction limit was set at £10. The limit was raised gradually, to £15 in 2010, to £20 in 2012, then to £30 in 2015, before the Covid pandemic prompted a jump to £45 in 2020, then to £100 in October 2021.
If approved, the latest plan could be put in place early next year.
Every rise has been met with concerns about theft and fraud, and the FCA said card providers would only permit higher-value contactless payments for low-risk transactions and would carry the burden if things went wrong.
However, the freedom for banks to raise or even scrap the contactless limit suggests the four-digit PIN could soon become relatively redundant.
The FCA has proposed the changes, despite the majority of consumers and industry respondents to a consultation favouring the current rules.
Some 78% of consumers who responded said they did not want any change to the limits.
The FCA said it did not expect any quick changes, but providers would welcome the flexibility over time when prices rise and technology advances. They could also give customers the option to set their own limits.
Fraud and theft fears
The idea of high-value payments being made with a tap of a card will raise concern that thieves and fraudsters will target cards.
Various protections are already in place. In addition to the £100 single payment limit, consumers are often required to enter a PIN if a series of contactless transactions totals more than £300, or five consecutive contactless payments are made.
The FCA’s own analysis suggests raising the limits would increase fraud losses, but said detection was improving and would continue to get better.
It said any change would be reliant on providers ensuring payments were low-risk, through their fraud prevention systems.
Consumers would still get their money back if money was stolen by fraudsters, according to David Geale, from the FCA.
“People are still protected. Even with contactless, firms will refund your money if your card is used fraudulently,” he said.
Many banks already allow cardholders to set a contactless limit of lower than £100, or switch it off completely, and the FCA expected this option to be made widely available.
It argued that time savings, less “payment friction”, and a reflection of rising prices over time would make changes in the limits worthwhile.
Payment terminals would also need to be altered, as most are programmed to automatically refuse payments of more than £100 by card.
‘I only use my phone to pay’
Smartphones already have an extra layer of security, through thumbprints or face ID. That allows people to pay without limits.
Nearly three-quarters of 16 to 24-year-olds regularly use mobile payments, according to industry research.
Near the appropriately named Bank Street in Sevenoaks, 24-year-old Demi Grady said she rarely bothered carrying her cards around anymore because she used her phone for everything.
“I was in London the other day, my phone died and I couldn’t pay for stuff because I couldn’t remember my card details,” she said.
Her mum, Carrie, in contrast, uses her card when shopping.
“It would worry me more than be of benefit if they were to lose the limit of £100,” she said.
Robert Ryan, who had just bought a “winter-ish jacket” at a Harveys Menswear on Bank Street said he did not regard entering a four-digit number when paying as a hassle. Instead it could be a useful budgeting tool.
“I feel more secure in what I’m buying and it does give me a bit of a prompt to make sure I’m not overspending on my tap-and-go,” he said.
Richard Staplehurst, the owner of the store, said the majority of his customers were paying via a device.
He said that removing any obstacles to payment was great, but he did not want to be landed with a bill if a card was used fraudulently.
Stimulating the UK economy
The idea of removing the contactless limit was highlighted as one way the FCA was responding to the prime minister’s call to regulators to remove restrictions to create more economic growth.
The government has been striving to improve the UK’s economic performance, which has been slow for some time.
Other countries, such as Canada, Australia and New Zealand allow industry to set contactless card limits.
The FCA will consult on its proposals until 15 October.
First Minister John Swinney has met President Donald Trump in the Oval Office to discuss whisky tariffs.
The meeting took place in the Oval Office, where the President was accompanied by Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
Mr Swinney says he discussed the possibility for a better tariff deal for Scotch whisky.
A 50-minute meeting took place ahead of the US President’s State Visit to the United Kingdom next week.
The First Minister confirmed to Mr Trump he would attend the State Banquet at Windsor Palace.
He said: “With the US state visit to the UK just days away, we are now entering the critical days on which hopes of a better tariff deal for Scotch whisky rest. Scotch whisky holds a unique position, as it can only legally be produced in Scotland.
“During my discussions with President Trump, I made the case to reduce the tariffs on the Scotch whisky industry – something the US industry supports.
“The United States is the largest market for Scotch whisky but Scottish distillers also spend hundreds of millions of dollars every year buying Bourbon casks from Kentucky.
“The negotiations themselves are, of course, for the UK negotiating team but given whisky exports to the US were worth almost £1 billion in 2024, its importance to the Scottish economy cannot be underestimated and I am determined to do all that I can to protect and safeguard this iconic Scottish product.”
The First Minister also raised the international situation including the ongoing conflict in Gaza and Qatar.
Mr Swinney is in the United States to undertake a series of trade and political meetings involving both main US political parties.
In a video posted to X, he confirmed he had met Mr Trump and discussed whisky tariffs, in particular, the possibility of no tariffs on Scotch whisky.
He said: “I wanted to share an update on my visit to Washington, DC. I spent the morning with representatives of the whisky industry from Scotland and the United States and we discussed the zero-for-zero approach on tariffs, which would help the industry to flourish on both sides of the pond.
“I’ve now taken those arguments to the Oval Office to President Trump, and we’ve had a constructive discussion about the reasons why Scotch whisky would benefit from no tariffs.
“It’s all part of my job to make sure that Scotland’s interests are promoted at all times, and that’s what I’ll always do as First Minister.”
The meeting at the White House was scheduled to last around 30 minutes and took place at 7pm UK time.
Prior to the meeting at the White House, the First Minister met representatives and member companies of the Distilled Spirits Council of the United States (Discus) and the Scotch Whisky Association (SWA) at Mount Vernon, the home of US founding father George Washington and the site of a whisky distillery he opened in 1798 which was operated by his Scottish farm hand, James Anderson.
The First Minister flew to Washington DC on Tuesday, saying he would be “pressing the case” for a better tariff deal for Scotch whisky in key talks in the United States.
New Business Secretary Peter Kyle will travel to Beijing this week to hold the first trade talks with China since 2018.
Mr Kyle will use the relaunch of the UK-China Joint Economic and Trade Commission (Jetco) to seek market access deals worth more than £1 billion over five years, according to the Department for Business and Trade (DBT).
The trip forms part of the Government’s drive to revive UK-China trade ties and boost the British economy.
The former science and technology secretary, who was promoted in Sir Keir Starmer’s recent reshuffle, is expected to arrive in the Chinese capital on Wednesday.
He is largely taking on the schedule of his predecessor in the role, Jonathan Reynolds, now the chief whip.
Mr Kyle will be flanked by UK businesses as he pushes for greater access to the Chinese market in sectors including automotive, professional services and healthcare.
Jetco summits were suspended by Boris Johnson’s Conservative government after Beijing’s crackdown on pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong in 2019.
Mr Kyle will “raise challenges” in the relationship with Beijing, including practices that undercut fair trade and human rights, according to DBT.
There are long-standing concerns about the treatment of Uighur Muslims, constraints on freedoms in Hong Kong and China’s stance on Russia’s war in Ukraine.
Mr Kyle said: “Serious and strategic engagement with the world’s foremost economic players is what will deliver for working people and businesses across the UK.
“Restarting trade talks with China is an essential tool to put money into people’s pockets as part of the Government’s Plan For Change.
“British businesses will be an important part of my visit, helping open doors to greater commercial opportunities.
UK Government in the last financial year” data-source=””>
“More discussions and direct engagement with China will ensure trade between us can flourish, strengthen our national security, and create space to raise concerns constructively where needed.”
Ministers pointed to nearly £2 billion in exports to China backed by the Government in the last financial year, including the Premier League signing an exclusive three-season broadcasting agreement with China Mobile-owned streaming platform Migu, health science firm Cultech Group introducing a probiotic to the Chinese market, and Oxford University Press launching an exhibition at China’s national library.
The Business and Trade Secretary will also co-chair the first Industrial Co-operation Dialogue since 2022, focusing on industrial decarbonisation, the digital economy and standards in the automotive sector.
Ruby Osman, China expert at the Tony Blair Institute, said: “The Secretary of State’s trip follows a string of recent visits – Chancellor Rachel Reeves, former Foreign Secretary David Lammy – that could culminate in a prime ministerial one early next year.
“It’s a striking contrast with the last government, which managed just two ministerial visits to China in five years, yet calling this moment a ‘reset’ risks misunderstanding.”
In an op-ed, she wrote: “Look closer at the policy language and the continuity becomes clear – (Rishi) Sunak’s framework of ‘protect, align, engage’ has become Starmer’s ‘compete, challenge and co-operate’. Both get at the same simple point: China is too big and complex for a one-size-fits-all strategy…
“Britain’s engagement with China does not need fundamental reinvention, it needs continuity. Only consistency built on expertise and capacity will deliver progress – not just this week, but for decades to come.”
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