Business
Pakistan’s stock market needs depth, not drama | The Express Tribune
With most gains driven by financials and energy giants, PSX lacks broad participation needed for durable bull run
KARACHI:
Pakistan’s stock market has been a study in contrasts this year: pockets of bullish enthusiasm punctuated by sharp swings that leave investors – and policymakers – uneasy. The benchmark KSE-100 index, which began 2025 on a recovery path after a turbulent 2024, has repeatedly tested new highs and then surrendered large chunks of gains within days, illustrating how sensitive the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) has become to domestic policy cues, regional geopolitics, and global risk sentiment.
On October 24, 2025, the index traded around the mid-160,000s intraday, showing ranges that investors described as “wide” and “whippy” rather than steady appreciation. Volatility has not been purely technical; it has often been triggered by identifiable events.
In April 2025, trading was halted for 45 minutes after the KSE-100 plunged more than 5% in a single session as global risk aversion spiked and regional uncertainty rose – an episode that underscored how quickly sentiment can reverse even when fundamentals appear to be stabilising.
The market’s dependence on foreign portfolio flows, and its limited depth compared with larger emerging markets, means that short, concentrated flows can move prices dramatically.
Domestic macro policy has been another major driver of market moves. The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP)’s easing cycle through the first half of 2025, including rate cuts totalling several hundred basis points compared with 2024 peaks, supported a recovery in interest-sensitive sectors and encouraged risk appetite among local institutional investors.
But monetary easing also raised questions about inflation and currency stability, which, in turn, prompted profit-taking when headlines suggested rising external pressures or potential reversals in policy. That tug-of-war between easing for growth and guarding against macro risks has been priced into PSX volatility.
The market’s advances have been concentrated. Financials, selected energy names, and large exporters accounted for a disproportionate share of gains during rallies, while small-cap and mid-cap segments frequently lagged or underperformed during corrections. This concentration increases systemic volatility because heavy exposure to a few big names magnifies the effect of any negative news tied to those companies or sectors.
Even on days when the headline index gains, breadth often remains narrow – another red flag for investors seeking durable rallies. PSX market summaries and turnover statistics show recurrent patterns of heavy volume on a limited number of symbols.
Foreign investor behaviour has been decisive at turning points. Inflows associated with short-term hedge funds or opportunistic foreign portfolio investors have magnified rallies, but sudden stops or reversals – prompted by global events such as changes in US interest rate expectations or geopolitical flare-ups – have intensified declines.
Local institutional participation has grown but still struggles to fully offset the volatility imparted by cross-border capital. The exchange’s 2025 annual report and market data highlight both increasing market capitalisation and the still-fragile composition of flows.
Liquidity dynamics add another layer to the story. While market capitalisation has expanded in the past year, turnover ratios and average daily traded value show episodes of thin liquidity, especially outside the top 20 stocks.
Thin trading amplifies price moves: modest sell orders can cascade if buyers are scarce. Recent intraday ranges – sometimes exceeding several thousand index points – reflect that liquidity mismatch. For risk managers and retail investors, that means stop-losses and margin calls can be triggered more easily now than in a deep, liquid market.
Geopolitical shocks have repeatedly convulsed the PSX. In months when regional tensions flared, the index suffered steep sell-offs and occasionally triggered cooling mechanisms or temporary halts; conversely, diplomatic breakthroughs or easing of tensions sparked quick recoveries and short squeezes.
The market’s sensitivity to such events is understandable – exporters, commodity prices, and investor confidence all react to geopolitical shifts – and it has made calendar risk a permanent feature of the PSX investment playbook.
Macro data and external account developments feed into market psychology as well. Pakistan’s trade deficits, remittance trends, and foreign exchange reserves are monitored closely by investors, and any sign of deteriorating external buffers tends to coincide with domestic equity sell-offs.
While policy actions – tariff adjustments, fiscal consolidation measures, or SBP interventions – may eventually stabilise macro variables, the market often reacts to the perceived probability and timing of those measures long before their economic impact is visible. Official monthly KSE indicators compiled by the SBP and PSX show how closely market moves track macro announcements.
Investor composition has evolved. Retail participation has risen alongside digital access to trading, while institutional investors – including pension funds and mutual funds – have steadily increased their presence. This democratisation brings both benefits – a broader investor base and deeper domestic pools of capital – and risks, as less-experienced retail investors can exacerbate momentum trading during both rallies and panics.
Education, stricter disclosure standards, and improved investor protection are therefore essential complements to any structural reform aimed at calming volatility.
Regulatory responses so far have been pragmatic but reactive. The PSX and the Securities and Exchange Commission of Pakistan (SECP) have used circuit breakers, trading halts, and disclosure requirements to limit disorderly moves, but long-term solutions require deeper structural changes.
These include broadening the investor base through institutional development, improving corporate governance, enhancing market infrastructure to reduce settlement and operational risk, and encouraging product innovation – such as derivatives and options – that allow for hedging of market and currency risk.
PSX’s 2025 initiatives around new index products and market data aim in that direction, but their stabilising impact will accrue only over time.
Volatility on the PSX is likely to persist – at least in the near term – because the market sits at the intersection of domestic policy shifts, lingering external vulnerabilities, and an increasingly connected global capital market where sentiment moves fast. That does not mean the PSX cannot offer attractive returns. Rather, it implies that returns will be accompanied by higher realised volatility, and that success will depend on both macro stability and deepening of market structures.
Policymakers, regulators, and market participants all have a role to play: improving transparency, nurturing local institutional capacity, and upgrading infrastructure will be the difference between a market that remains chronically volatile and one that evolves into a resilient and investor-friendly marketplace.
THE WRITER IS A MEMBER OF PEC AND HOLDS A MASTER’S DEGREE IN ENGINEERING
Business
Stock market today: Nifty50 opens above 25,550; BSE Sensex up over 200 points – The Times of India
Stock market today: Nifty50 and BSE Sensex, the Indian equity benchmark indices, opened in green on Monday. While Nifty50 was above 25,550, BSE Sensex was up over 200 points. At 9:16 AM, Nifty50 was trading at 25,567.90, up 76 points or 0.30%. BSE Sensex was at 83,426.94, up 211 points or 0.25%.For the week ahead, market experts expect range-bound movement influenced by mixed global factors, while potential positive corporate earnings and developments in India-US trade discussions could provide support.Dr. VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Investments Limited says, “The dominant trend in global trade this year has been the AI trade, which has pushed up AI stock valuations to elevated valuations, though not yet in bubble territory. The strong earnings growth in the US has been a fundamental support to this AI trade. Countries regarded as AI winners like China, South Korea and Taiwan also have benefited from this AI rally. Now, there are signs of this AI trade losing steam as evidenced by the 3 % decline in Nasdaq last week. This is a healthy trend. If this trend persists without high volatility, that would make the US market healthy, preempting a bubble formation and its eventual burst. Investors have to watch how this trend plays out.”“This emerging trend, it persists, would be particularly favourable for the Indian market which didn’t participate in the AI trade. FIIs, particularly the hedge funds, who have been consistently selling in India and taking money out for playing the AI trade, are now likely to pause and slowly reverse the AI trade in favour for non-AI trade in countries like India. Fortunately, the earnings growth currently happening in India and expected to gather momentum, going forward, can provide the fundamental support for a rally. Watch out for the leading names in banking and finance, telecom, capital goods, defence and automobiles.”Friday saw Nasdaq close slightly lower, marking its sharpest weekly fall since early April, as investors expressed concerns about sustainability of recent gains in artificial intelligence shares. US Treasury yields showed marginal decline.Asian trading witnessed a surge in US stock-index futures, as expectations grew for a resolution to the prolonged US government shutdown.Foreign portfolio investors conducted net sales of shares valued at Rs 4,581 crore on Thursday. In contrast, domestic institutional investors were net purchasers, investing Rs 6,675 crore.(Disclaimer: Recommendations and views on the stock market, other asset classes or personal finance management tips given by experts are their own. These opinions do not represent the views of The Times of India)
Business
China exempts Nexperia chips from export controls
China has lifted export controls on computer chips vital to car production, the country’s commerce ministry has said.
Exemptions have been granted to exports made by Chinese-owned Nexperia for civilian use, it said, which should help carmakers who had feared production in Europe would be hit.
In October, the Dutch government took control of Nexperia, which is based in the Netherlands but owned by Chinese company Wingtech, to try to safeguard the European supply of semiconductors for cars and other goods.
In response, China blocked exports of the firm’s finished chips. However, it said earlier this month it would begin easing the ban as part of a trade deal struck between the US and China.
While Nexperia is based in the Netherlands, about 70% of its chips made in Europe are sent to China to be completed and re-exported to other countries.
When it took control of the company, the Dutch government said it had taken the decision due to “serious governance shortcomings” and to prevent the company’s chips from becoming unavailable in an emergency.
But when China blocked exports of chips from Nexperia, there were worries that it could create global supply chain issues.
In October, the European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association (EMEA) had warned Nexperia chip supplies would only last a few weeks unless the Chinese ban was lifted.
Earlier this month, the EMEA’s director general Sigrid De Vries told the BBC that “supply shortages were imminent”.
Volvo Cars and Volkswagen had warned that a chip shortage could lead to temporary shutdowns at their plants, and Jaguar Land Rover also said the lack of chips posed a threat to its business.
But on Saturday, EU trade commissioner Maros Sefcovic announced in a post on X that China had agreed to “the further simplification of export procedures for Nexperia chips” and it would “grant exemption from licensing requirements to any exporter” provided the goods were for “civilian use”.
“Close engagement with both the Chinese and Dutch authorities continues as we work towards a lasting. stable predictable framework that ensures the full restoration of semiconductor flows.”
In its statement, China’s commerce ministry called on “the EU to continue exerting its influence to urge the Netherlands to correct its erroneous practices as soon as possible.”
Business
Co-op to open or refurbish dozens of stores amid cyber attack recovery
The Co-op has said it is pushing forward with a number of new stores and major refurbishments as it bounces back from a damaging cyber attack.
The retailer said 50 stores will be opened or re-opened by Christmas as it urged the Government to reform business rates ahead of the autumn Budget.
It said reforms will be “vital” to encourage further high street investment as it continues with its own expansion ambitions.
The latest slew of openings will take the Co-op’s store openings and refurbishments to more than 200 sites for the latest financial year.
It added that the programme will have seen the business invest more than £200 million across the store estate.
The Co-op will open 14 new stores, which include it becoming the first permanent retailer at the new Brent Cross Town development in London, five new micro-format ‘on the go’ stores and a new franchise store at Lancaster University.
The remainder of the 50 stores will consist of sites which have been closed for a lengthy period to undergo an extensive refurbishment and will re-open with a new look and updated product range.
Growth efforts come as the group, which has around 6.9 million member-owners, continues to recover from a major cyber attack.
It said in September that the hack, which took place in April, will knock its annual earnings by around £120 million.
Meanwhile, it said the cyber attack, which left it with bare shelves and saw data stolen for all its members, impacted on sales by about £206 million.
The group said the hackers impersonated workers to trick employees into giving them access to their accounts.
They created a copy of one of the firm’s files but were unable to attack its platforms further and install ransomware.
On Monday, the group, which runs more than 2,300 food stores, made renewed calls for property tax reform and increased certainty from the Government ahead of the autumn Budget.
Shirine Khoury-Haq, Co-op Group chief executive, said: “We’re investing in stores and communities right across the UK because we believe in the future of the high street.
“But sustained growth needs certainty. Business rates reform is vital if retailers – especially the 99% who run small stores – are to plan with confidence, protect jobs and keep local economies thriving.
“Co-op is showing what’s possible when businesses commit to communities.
“The Government now has an opportunity in the autumn Budget to do its part by delivering the reform that’s long been promised – giving every retailer, from small to large, the stability to invest and grow.”
-
Business1 week agoAndy Jassy Reveals Real Reason Behind Amazon 14,000 Job Cuts — And It’s Not AI
-
Sports1 week agoTudor’s Juve exit means McKennie must prove himself all over again
-
Tech1 week agoGear News of the Week: Withings Launches Its Pee Scanner, and Samsung Shows Off a Trifold Phone
-
Politics1 week agoPolitical violence kills almost 300 since Hasina’s fall: rights group
-
Politics1 week agoIran vows to rebuild nuclear sites ‘stronger than before’
-
Entertainment1 week agoPresident Zardari to attend Second World Summit for Social Development in Doha
-
Sports1 week agoL.A. plans to start Ohtani in G7; Jays go Scherzer
-
Tech1 week agoStep Away From Screens With the Best Family Board Games
