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Poverty reduction stalls despite growth | The Express Tribune
Fiscal, labour, social reforms can stop Pakistan sliding back into poverty trap after 20 years of progress, say expert
Pakistan would soon move to a path of poverty reduction and improvement in other socio-economic indices, Dar says. PHOTO: REUTERS
KARACHI:
Pakistan’s progress in poverty reduction has stalled after nearly two decades of steady gains, experts warned at the Fifth Annual International Conference of the School of Economics and Social Sciences (SESS), Institute of Business Administration (IBA), held on November 13-14, 2025, under the theme “A New Global Order, Yet Again.”
During a panel titled “Pakistan at a Crossroads: Poverty, Growth, and the Global Shift,” economists, policymakers, and development experts discussed the World Bank’s first comprehensive Poverty Assessment Report in twenty years. The report shows that while Pakistan made remarkable progress between 2001 and 2015 – reducing poverty from 64.3% to 21.9% – those gains have stalled or reversed since 2018-19 due to overlapping economic, political, and environmental shocks.
The study attributes earlier success mainly to a shift from agricultural to non-agricultural income, driven by labour migration into services and non-manufacturing sectors. Nearly 57% of poverty reduction came from non-agricultural labour income. But this transition has now reached its limits. Most new jobs are low-wage and low-productivity, concentrated in informal retail and services that fail to lift households from vulnerability.
Remittances, once a crucial poverty buffer, are also losing impact. Though still vital for foreign exchange, their benefits are uneven. The poorest 20% of households rarely send workers abroad and rely on domestic migration to cities. Adjusted for inflation, real remittances are declining, reducing poor families’ resilience to shocks. Experts noted that Pakistan’s labour market remains highly informalabout 85% of employment offers no social protection. Nearly half the population is outside the labour force, while female participation remains stagnant at 25%, largely in low-paid farm work. Even more worrying, 37% of youth are neither in education, employment, nor training, the highest NEET rate in South Asia.
Panellists warned that such fragility leaves millions hovering just above the poverty line. “A single shock, whether inflation, illness, or job loss, can push entire families back into poverty,” said Maria Qazi of the World Bank. Public service access is also weak: only 4.3% of households have daily access to piped water, revealing deep structural flaws in human development.
Fiscal and policy challenges dominated much of the debate. Wasif Ali Memon, Chairman of the Sindh Revenue Board, called for progressive taxation and decentralised revenue collection. “Pakistan’s fiscal structure depends too heavily on indirect taxes and an informal economy that makes up nearly 80% of GDP,” he said. “We must broaden the tax base, raise the tax-to-GDP ratio, and strengthen institutional capacity to finance poverty reduction sustainably.”
Christina Wieser, Senior Economist at the World Bank, urged policymakers to go beyond short-term cash transfer programmes like the Benazir Income Support Programme (BISP). “BISP cushions the poorest households,” she said, “but sustainable poverty reduction needs jobs, education, and gender-inclusive economic opportunities.” Economist and journalist Khurrum Husain noted that Pakistan’s growth has become disconnected from poverty outcomes. “We saw poverty stall even during growth years,” he said. “Our growth is consumption-driven and informalit doesn’t create sustainable livelihoods. The rich pay less and gain more.” Without redistributive reform, he warned, inequality will widen further.
Economist Asad Syed described Pakistan’s economic model as “dependent on geopolitical rents rather than productive investment.” He said the country’s investment rate, barely 2% of GDP, is far below regional peers. “We must move from speculative profits to a productive, equitable model of growth,” he urged, warning that dependence on external rents and neoliberal policies deepens inequality. The conference’s concluding session, “What is New in the New World Order?” shifted focus to global dynamics. Neelum Nigar of the Ministry of Finance said the world is now “multipolar, fragmented, and interdependent,” and urged developing nations to reassess their place in global governance. “The question is not just who participates,” she said, “but who benefits.”
A bottled water sold at Waitrose could contain glass and should be returned to the store, the Food Standards Agency (FSA) warned.
The 750ml No1 Royal Deeside Mineral Water and the sparkling variety are being recalled “because of the possible presence of glass fragments upon opening the bottles,” which the FSA said “may cause injury and makes it unsafe to drink”.
Waitrose apologised and said it was recalling “some” bottles as a precaution.
The supermarket is asking customers not to use the bottles and to take them back to Waitrose or contact the company for a full refund.
“If you have bought any of the above products do not drink it,” the FSA said in its recall notice.
It added that the supermarket would be putting up notices in its shops warning customers.
Deeside water is produced in Scotland from natural springs in the Cairngorms national park.
The firm produces special batches for Waitrose, which are affected by the recall. Each bottle costs around £1.60p at Waitrose stores.
It is not clear exactly how many bottles have been sold and what proportion of bottles are affected.
The batch codes for the recalled mineral water are: NOV 2027 28, DEC 2027 01, DEC 2027 02, DEC 2027 10, DEC 2027 11 and DEC 2027 16, with best before dates of November and December 2027.
The batch codes for the recalled sparkling water are: DEC 2027 01, DEC 2027 03, DEC 2027 12, DEC 2027 15 and DEC 2027 25, with a best before date of December 2027.
The FSA advised people contact Waitrose Customer Care on 0800 188 884, choosing option 4.
Business
PPF, Post Office FD, SSY: Govt Keeps Interest Rates On Small Savings Schemes Unchanged For Q4 FY26
Last Updated:
PPF, NSC, SSY, KVP, Post Office Deposits: Check latest interest rates on small savings schemes for the period between January 1 to March 31 this year.
Small savings schemes rate update.
PPF, Post Office FD, SSY, NSC Interest Rates: The government on Wednesday, December 31, 2025, announced that the interest rates on small savings schemes, including PPF, SSY, NSC, and post office deposits, will remain unchanged for the fourth quarter of FY 2025-26 (from January 1, 2026, to March 31, 2026), according to a finance ministry notification.
“The rates of interest on various small savings schemes for the fourth quarter of FY2025-26 starting from January 1, 2026, and ending on March 31st, 2026, shall remain unchanged from those notified for the third quarter (October 1, 2025, to December 31, 2025) of FY 2025-26″, the Department of Economic Affairs, Ministry of Finance, said in an official notification on December 31, 2025.
Latest Interest Rates On Small Savings Schemes
Sukanya Samriddhi Scheme Deposits: under the Sukanya Samriddhi scheme will continue to attract an interest rate of 8.2%.
Three-Year Term Post Office Deposit: The interest rate on a three-year term deposit remains at 7.1%.
Public Provident Fund (PPF) and Post Office Savings Deposit: The interest rates for Public Provident Fund (PPF) and post office savings deposit schemes will remain unchanged at 7.1% and 4%, respectively.
Kisan Vikas Patra: The interest rate on the Kisan Vikas Patra will be 7.5%, with investments maturing in 115 months.
National Savings Certificate (NSC): The National Savings Certificate (NSC) will attract an interest rate of 7.7% for the April-June 2025 period.
Monthly Income Scheme: The Monthly Income Scheme will earn an interest rate of 7.4% for investors.
The government last revised some schemes’ rates for the fourth quarter of 2023-24. Interest rates on small savings schemes are notified by the government every quarter.
The central government is mandated to review and set interest rates for small savings schemes every quarter. Interest rates on post office schemes are determined based on the methodology suggested by the Shyamala Gopinath Committee.
What Are Small Savings Schemes?
Small savings schemes are government-backed deposit schemes designed to promote savings among Indian citizens, especially those with low to moderate incomes. They are considered safe investments and are offered through post offices and select banks. Popular schemes include Public Provident Fund (PPF), National Savings Certificate (NSC), Sukanya Samriddhi Yojana (SSY), Senior Citizen Savings Scheme (SCSS), Post Office Monthly Income Scheme (POMIS), Time Deposits and Recurring Deposits, Interest rates on these schemes are reviewed quarterly by the government and are influenced by the yield trends in the secondary market for government securities.
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December 31, 2025, 20:02 IST
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UK energy bills are set to fall by £138 by April – despite households expecting a rise on Thursday during the next bout of cold weather.
Experts at Cornwall Insight said they expect energy bills to fall by £138, or 8 per cent, to £1,620 a year when the cap is next updated in April due to government measures announced in the recent Budget.
Chancellor Rachel Reeves said £150 would be cut from the average household bill from April by scrapping the Energy Company Obligation (Eco) scheme introduced by the Tories in government.
Wholesale energy prices have also dropped in recent weeks, which is set to keep a lid on energy price hikes from April, according to Cornwall Insight.
But, before then, many households’ energy bills are to rise on New Year’s Day, just as a swathe of cold health alerts have been issued for large areas of the UK.
The 0.2 per cent increase to Ofgem’s energy price cap will equate to a rise of about 28p a month for the average household in England, Wales and Scotland remaining on a standard variable tariff.
This amounts to an average overall bill of £1,758 a year, up from the current £1,755.
Regulator Ofgem said Thursday’s increase in the cap, which was announced in November, was being driven by the funding of nuclear power projects and discounts to some households’ winter bills.
This included funding the government’s Sizewell C nuclear power plant in Suffolk – with an average of £1 added to each household’s energy bills per month for the duration of the £38 billion construction.
An increase to standing charges – the amount consumers pay per day to have energy supplied to their homes – was also largely due to costs linked to the government’s warm home discount scheme.
Around 2.7 million more low-income households, including 900,000 families with children, are eligible for the £150 discount this winter.
However, the regulator said the new price cap was £37 lower than a year ago when adjusted for inflation.
Ofgem’s price cap sets a maximum rate per unit and standing charge that customers can be billed when they are not on a fixed tariff.
It does not limit total bills because households still pay for the amount of energy they consume.
The price cap increase comes just as a yellow warning for snow and ice has been issued for parts of Scotland north of the central belt from 6am on New Year’s Day until midnight on January 2.
It comes as amber cold health alerts have been issued for the North East and North West of England, which are due to remain in place until noon on January 5, with temperatures expected to fall to 3-5C.
Yellow cold health alerts have been issued by the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) for London and the East, South East and South West of England, as well as the East and West Midlands and Yorkshire and the Humber.
Simon Francis, co-ordinator of the End Fuel Poverty Coalition, said: “It really is a case of every little doesn’t help as households spend a fifth winter in the energy bills crisis. Tiny movements in the price cap still hit hard for families choosing between heating and eating.
“People continue to live in cold, damp homes, where the risks go beyond discomfort and into real danger, including exposure to carbon monoxide. Younger adults, private renters and households with children are among those most at risk as people cut back on heating, delay repairs and try to block draughts just to stay warm.
“Meanwhile, the wider energy industry has made more than £125 billion in UK profits since 2020, including firms operating in a dying North Sea. This isn’t a crisis of scarcity, it’s a crisis of priorities. Ministers must move beyond short-term price cap tweaks and get serious about ending fuel poverty by investing in energy efficiency, reforming energy pricing, introducing a fair social tariff and fully funding the warm homes plan.”
Which? energy editor Emily Seymour said: “As we head into the coldest months of the year, many households will be concerned that the energy price cap will increase slightly in the new year.
“There are several deals on the market for lower than the price cap so now is a good time to shop around if you’re looking to fix. As a rule of thumb, we’d recommend looking for deals cheaper than the current price cap, not longer than 12 months and without significant exit fees.
“If you’re on a variable tariff, make sure to submit a meter reading to ensure you pay the cheaper rates for any energy used before the new price cap takes effect.”
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