Business
Prediction markets allow trading on Super Bowl commercials, prompting insider trading questions
The Super Bowl 60 logo on a Santa Clara Valley Transportation Authority light rail car in Santa Clara, California, Dec. 29, 2025.
Aaron M. Sprecher | Getty Images Sport | Getty Images
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For many Americans, the best part of the Super Bowl is the commercials. This year, you can make — or lose — money on them, too.
Prediction market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket currently have contracts open on which companies will run ads during Super Bowl 60, which will feature the Seattle Seahawks vs. the New England Patriots and is set for Feb. 8 in Santa Clara, California. Users can trade on whether Salesforce or Verizon or Coca-Cola will have a Super Bowl spot this year, for example.
While Polymarket’s trades are just a “Yes/No” bet, Kalshi has a few predictions that are a bit more nuanced, such as, “Who will appear in a big game ad before Feb 9, 2026?”, with trades available for Sydney Sweeney, Timothée Chalamet and Harry Styles.
It’s a new wrinkle for the advertising industry’s biggest night. The price of Super Bowl commercials goes higher and higher each year as the Super Bowl’s TV audience keeps rising. Last year’s game was watched by 127.7 million viewers, a record high. That game, broadcast by Fox, generated about $7.5 million per 30-second spot, with 10 or so ads commanding more than $8 million.
This year, NBC, which will broadcast the game, has sold out all of its ad inventory, averaging $8 million per 30-second commercial, with between five and 10 ads selling for more than $10 million apiece, according to Mark Marshall, NBC’s chairman of global advertising and partnerships. The closer to the game that a company buys an ad slot, the more it pays.
According to Marshall, technology companies have bought the most spots across this year’s slate, though NBC defines technology relatively broadly: Uber Eats, for example, is considered a tech company. Only two automobile companies are advertising during the game. About 40% of advertisers this year have never bought a Super Bowl spot before, Marshall said.
But the entrance of prediction market platforms means Marshall has reason to keep details close to the vest.
Insider trading concerns
For those not familiar with how these prediction markets work, they basically trade like stocks, with contracts priced between $0 and $1. The contracts trade up or down depending on the action.
For example, for “Which brands will advertise during the big game 2026?” on Kalshi, Spotify spiked on Jan. 19, going from $0.35 to $0.69 before settling down. As of Friday morning, a “Yes” contract for Spotify was priced at $0.37.
If your predicted outcome materializes, you get paid, with winning contracts paying out $1 each, minus fees.
Both Polymarket and Kalshi are also offering other prediction trades around the Super Bowl, including “What songs will be played at the halftime show?,” “Who will attend the big game?” (Lionel Messi? Elon Musk?), and more traditional sportsbook “bets” such as “Seattle vs. New England: Most Rushing Yards.”
While straight sports predictions, such as rushing yards, are unknown events, there are likely hundreds, if not thousands, of employees who know whether their company is planning to run a Super Bowl commercial. That makes some contracts ripe for insider trading.
Existing laws prohibit insider trading on prediction markets, but industry experts are skeptical that a gutted Commodity Futures Trading Commission has the will or the staff to police those problems.
Meanwhile the question of whether events contracts on sports amount to financial derivatives or gambling is dividing the sports gambling industry — and tying federal courts in knots.
“A couple of courts have held that event contracts based on sports are not derivatives subject to the CFTC’s authority,” said Jack Murphy, senior counsel at Akin Gump and a former CFTC enforcement attorney. “Those decisions are up on appeal. If sports event contracts aren’t derivatives, then criminal authorities could still prosecute insider trading on prediction markets under a wire fraud theory.”
On Thursday, Michael Selig, the new chairman of the CFTC, said he had directed agency staff to withdraw a proposed rule that would ban prediction trades on sports and politics. He said new rules would be coming.
Meanwhile live sports continue to fuel prediction market growth. Kalshi’s on track for 44% month-over-month growth in total trading volume, according to Piper Sandler analyst Patrick Moley. The contract on “Who will win the Super Bowl?” has already accounted for more than $150 million in trading volume.
Business
Gold and silver sell-off gathers steam in correction after record highs
Gold and silver prices have continued to drop sharply in a “brutal” sell-off after hitting record highs in recent weeks.
The precious metals began falling on Friday in response to US President Donald Trump’s nomination for the incoming chairman of the Federal Reserve.
His choice for former Fed governor Kevin Warsh to replace current chairman Jerome Powell when his term ends in May soothed some investor nerves, which boosted the US dollar but saw appetite for safe-haven investments gold and silver slump in response.
Gold and silver suffered their worst trading days for decades on Friday and were down heavily again on Monday, with spot prices off by another 7% and 11% respectively at one stage.
Silver had plunged by nearly 30% on Friday and gold dropped over 9% in its worst one-day drop since 1983.
Gold and silver had been enjoying a record breaking rally as investors sought refuge amid global geopolitical uncertainty, conflict and tariff woes.
Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote, said: “The sell-off has been far more brutal than I, and many, expected.”
He added: “For silver, the rally on the way up was faster than gold’s, so the correction on the way down is faster too.”
Kathleen Brooks, research director at XTB, added: “If the sell off continues, then gold and silver are at risk of eroding their losses for the year so far.
“The historic move lower in silver prices has not stemmed a fall at the start of this week.
“Traders have not yet found a level that they are happy to buy the dips, and the timing of Chinese Lunar New Year in mid-February could accelerate the sell off, as Chinese traders reduce risk ahead of the holiday.”
UK and US stock markets are expected to open in the red on Monday, as the gold and silver rout has a knock on effect on mining giants, while Brent oil was also 5% lower.
Derren Nathan, head of equity research at Hargreaves Lansdown, said: “Mining stocks are likely to feel the heat as metal prices scramble to find a floor.
“Oil prices are also trending the wrong way for investors in commodity-focused companies.”
Business
Budget’s mild fiscal consolidation to be positive for GDP growth: Report
Mumbai: Lower revenue as a share of GDP has been more than offset by cuts to subsidies and spending on current schemes, leading to the smallest fiscal consolidation in six years, likely positive for growth, a new report has said.
The fiscal consolidation for FY27 is the slowest in six years. And the budgeted disinvestment, which is a below-the-line funding item, is likely to see the highest rise in six years, the report from HSBC Global Investment Research said.
“The central government continues with fiscal consolidation, though signing up for a gentler path for FY27; the fiscal impulse will likely turn neutral after several years in the negative, and this should be good news for GDP growth,” the research firm added.
The report said that the services sector was the focus of the Budget, “with ambitious plans and increased outlays for medical institutions, universities, tourism, sports facilities, and the creative economy.”
Urban infrastructure saw a renewed push with each City Economic Region (CER) set to receive get Rs 50 billion over 5 years.
Seven new high-speed rail corridors will connect major cities, the report noted, adding large cities will also get an incentive of Rs 1 billion if they issue municipal bonds worth more than Rs 10 billion.
The report highlighted policy priorities, saying, “new manufacturing sectors were given incentives, namely biopharma, semiconductors, electronic components, rare earth corridors, chemical parks, container manufacturing, and high-tech tool rooms.”
Direct taxes are expected to grow faster than nominal GDP while indirect taxes will expand more slowly, with gross tax revenues budgeted to rise about 8 per cent year‑on‑year, the report said.
Central government set a fiscal deficit target of 4.3 per cent of GDP for FY27 after a 4.4 per cent estimate for FY26, and nominal GDP growth was pegged at 10 per cent.
Business
India’s $5 trillion economy push: How ‘C+1’ strategy could turn country into world’s factory
New Delhi: India is preparing for a major economic transformation. The Union Budget 2026-27 lays out measures that could make the country the top choice for global manufacturing using the popular ‘China +1’ (C+1) strategy. This comes as international companies rethink supply chains after COVID-19 disruptions, rising trade tariffs and geopolitical tensions.
India has positioned itself as the backup factory for the world that is ready to absorb international demand in case of any crisis in China or Taiwan.
The government has offered tax breaks for cell phone, laptop, and semiconductor makers, making India more attractive to foreign investors. Reducing bureaucratic hurdles for global firms, the budget also strengthens the National Single Window System to simplify business procedures. The message is clear: India is ready to step in as a global manufacturing hub, ensuring supply continuity for the world.
The expressway to a $5 trillion economy
China presently dominates about 40% of global manufacturing. Its factories supply critical products worldwide, but 2026 is expected to be a turning point. Expanding influence and economic opacity have made global companies seek alternatives.
India has leveraged this moment, offering a comprehensive incentive package for foreign manufacturers. Analysts call it more than policy; it is a blueprint to become a $5 trillion economy and reclaim India’s historic position as a global industrial leader.
Why the world needs India now
The COVID-19 pandemic exposed the dangers of over-reliance on a single supplier. When China halted medical exports, nations realised the need for diversified supply chains. Major companies such as Apple and Samsung now see India as a dependable alternative.
China’s aging workforce and rising labour costs further enhance India’s appeal. With 65% of its population under 35, India offers a vast, skilled and affordable workforce for decades. The geopolitical uncertainty surrounding Taiwan, which produces 90% of advanced chips, has also created demand for a secure manufacturing backup. India is stepping in to fill that gap.
How India stands to gain from China’s challenges
India’s budget, 2026-27, slashes import duties on cell phone and laptop components, turning the country into a hub for component manufacturing, not just assembly. Electronics exports are projected to cross $120 billion by 2025.
The government has also launched a Rs 1.5 lakh crore semiconductor mission, attracting companies like Tata and Micron to establish advanced chip plants in India. In the chemical sector, stricter environmental regulations in China have shut down several plants, benefiting Indian companies such as Privi Specialty and Aarti Industries, which are now filling gaps in global supply chains.
Incentives for companies
The Production Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme promises cash rewards for output, covering over 14 sectors. This is India’s answer to Chinese subsidies. From land acquisition to electricity connections, the National Single Window System now enables businesses to clear all approvals through a single portal.
Infrastructure investment has also received a massive boost, with Rs 11.11 lakh crore allocated under PM GatiShakti. New ports and dedicated freight corridors are being built to ensure that exports from India reach the world faster and cheaper than ever before.
India’s moves points to a strategic shift in global manufacturing. By rolling out the red carpet for foreign companies and investing heavily in infrastructure, technology and policy reforms, the country is poised to become the go-to destination for global supply chains. The C+1 formula is not only a concept; it is a roadmap to turn India into the next industrial superpower and a $5 trillion economy.
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