Sports
Premier League midseason awards: Ranking picks for best player, manager and more
We’re halfway done-ish!
The Premier League is now 21 games in — just a bit past the exact halfway of the 38-game season — and we’ve reached a point where the league is taking a week off and every team has played every other team at least once. So, that means it’s time to check in on the various award races.
Most of the Premier League’s awards are determined by statistics: Golden Boot (most goals), Playmaker of the Year (most assists), Golden Glove (most saves), and, yes, they also have something called “The Premier League Most Powerful Goal,” which is given to the player who kicks the ball the hardest before it crosses the goal line.
But there are four other “major” awards that are fun to think about: goal of the season, young player of the season, manager of the season and player of the season. Here is who deserves each award to if the season ended today, plus the next two runners-up.
Goal of the Season
If it feels like there haven’t been as many great goals this season, it’s because, well, there haven’t been that many open-play goals.
A goal from a throw-in or a corner kick has such a high bar to clear for it to deserve a place on this list. Sure, we’d throw a bone to one of those clipped diagonal balls to a guy at the top of the box who then volleys it into the upper corner, but teams are getting smarter about set pieces, so they’re not trying that anymore. And, unfortunately, the beauty of most great coals comes from the inefficiency in which they arise.
At the same time, it does seem like we’ve seen a minor reemergence of players just smacking the ball as hard as they can and hoping it stays under the crossbar. Maybe because defenses are more organized and harder to break down than ever before, there’s more space in the area extending out from the top of the box and a little more freedom or frustration leading to some more goals from long range?
Anyway, enough with the theorizing, and on to my top three picks for Goal of the Season.
3. Dominik Szoboszlai vs. Arsenal, Aug. 31
I love the headline on the Premier League’s website for this one: “Szoboszlai makes history with Guinness Goal of the Month award.” What kind of history did he make for this wonderful free kick? Was it the hardest-hit dead ball of the decade? Can they measure spin now, and so did that thing have less spin than any shot ever recorded? Is this the latest winning direct free-kick goal in a match between the previous season’s top two teams?
No, the history Szoboszlai apparently made was that he became the first player from Hungary to win a Premier League-trademarked award. What an important day for Hungarian soccer.
At the time, this seemed like it might be the most important goal of the season. It marked three straight wins for Liverpool, and after two more consecutive victories, they’d already built up a six-point lead on Arsenal. Fast forward to today and Arsenal are comfortably in first place, 14 points ahead of fourth-placed Liverpool.
2. Harrison Reed vs. Liverpool, Jan. 4
When it’s not your year, sometimes it’s really not your year.
Reed hadn’t scored a Premier League goal since April 15, 2023. He’d scored three Premier League goals in his entire career. He turns 31 at the end of this month. He’d only played eight Premier League minutes in 2025-26 prior to this match, and the only reason he was subbed on in the 89th minute against Liverpool was because Fulham have multiple players away at the Africa Cup of Nations.
I hope he doesn’t take another shot this season because if he doesn’t, then he might win the Premier League’s Goal of the Season award with his only attempt.
1. Zian Flemming vs. Wolves, Oct. 26
This is my favorite kind of goal: technically perfect, aesthetically simple, and intellectually brilliant.
It looks so easy: one guy kicks it straight, and then another guy kicks it straight, and it ends up in the back of the net. But this goal never happens without a perfect 45-yard diagonal ball under pressure, and the pass never happens if Flemming doesn’t recognize it, peel off the defender’s shoulder, and signal that he’s an option for a ball over the top.
But what I love most is how the goal uses the complexity of the sport as a decoy. The Wolves defenders are so worried about all of the different potential passing combinations underneath that they give the passer too much time to look up and leave just another space for the attacker to run into.
Then, once the pass is played, everyone on the field starts running toward the ball — watch the video: both teams drift in the same direction the ball is heading, especially Sam Johnstone, the Wolves goalkeeper. And that’s what allows Flemming to tap the ball into the net: the flight of the ball makes it so the side-footed shot spins the ball in the opposite direction you’d expect, and the momentum of the play pulls Johnstone just far enough away that he can’t dive quickly enough, back from where he came.
The best goal of the season came from a game between the two worst teams in the Premier League.
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Young Player of the Season
What happens when the Premier League realizes that players peak earlier than everyone once thought at the same time that the Premier League’s financial advantage over the rest of the world reached escape velocity? You get a league with a ton of fantastic young players.
I’ve only selected three, but there are probably at least 10 others worthy of this award, which goes to the best players aged 23 or younger at the start of the season.
Jérémy Doku has made the leap this year. Elliot Anderson will probably start for England at the World Cup. Ryan Gravenberch won it last year and is still eligible. Michael Kayode‘s throw-ins are more valuable than maybe any other specific skill from any other player. Moisés Caicedo, Florian Wirtz, Josko Gvardiol, Riccardo Calafiori, Rayan Cherki, Cole Palmer, Alejandro Garnacho? All eligible for this award. And Bukayo Saka will probably — and rightfully — actually win it if he stays healthy for the rest of the season.
However, we’re giving this out purely based on the player’s performance from the first half of the season. So, here’s the top three.
3. Adam Wharton, midfielder, Crystal Palace
For the unfamiliar, Opta’s expected possession value (xPV) is just a way to determine how much everything a player does with the ball increases or decreases their team’s chances of scoring.
For example, Liverpool’s Milos Kerkez is eligible for this award. He will not be winning this award because, among other things, he’s contributed minus-0.4 xPV to Liverpool this season. Typically, the only players who contribute negative values are forwards because the metric doesn’t award players for shooting, and forwards often will either lose possession when the ball is in a high-value area or they’ll pass the ball backward, out of a high value area. For Kerkez, his xPV matches what you’ve seen if you’ve watched; he is not helping Liverpool win soccer games.
Wharton, though, is doing the opposite for Crystal Palace. He’s the only player in the league who ranks in the top 10 for expected possession value added via defensive actions and in the top 10 for open-play passing. He’s 21 years old, and he’s already one of the best midfielders in the world.
2. Hugo Ekitike, forward, Liverpool
One simple way to calculate the “value” a player has provided to a team is to take their xPV, add it to the number of non-penalty goals they have scored, and see what comes up.
The promise of Ekitike, when Liverpool signed him, is that he was the rare center forward who could do both: score goals but also create all kinds of other value in buildup play, with his ability to win headers, beat players off the dribble, and create dangerous opportunities for his teammates. And despite playing in a mostly dysfunctional team for most of the season, Ekitike has already shown that, at age 23, in the most competitive league in the world.
Only two 23-and-under players have generated more than eight non-penalty goals and xPV combined, and Ekitike is one of them.
1. Morgan Rogers, attacking midfielder, Aston Villa
There’s one main reason why Villa are 11 points clear of sixth place, more than halfway through the season: Rogers has gone nuclear. Here’s his shot map so far this season:
That’s six goals from just around 2.5 expected goals, or xG. And while I absolutely would not expect that to continue, Rogers has won so many extra points for his team by scoring so many low-probability opportunities.
Add that to the fact that he’s one of the best half-space players in the league — he’s second in the league in through balls completed; he’s the one who takes Villa’s patient possession and turns it into actual danger — and Rogers has provided more value to his team than any other young player in the league.
Manager of the Season
Before we get into the choices, I’d just like to point out the past six winners of manager of the month. Last March, it was Nuno Espirito Santo … with Nottingham Forest. In April, it was Vitor Pereira with Wolves. In August, it was Liverpool’s Arne Slot. In September, Crystal Palace’s Oliver Glasner. And then the last two winners were Ruben Amorim (Manchester United) and Enzo Maresca (Chelsea).
So, four of those six guys have been fired, one of them is somehow on the hot seat despite winning the Premier League in his first season in England (Slot), and the other one is currently coaching a team that emerged from the holiday period with one point from five matches (Glasner) — all of which were against teams in the bottom half of the table at the time.
What does that mean? It reminds me of a piece from FiveThirtyEight a couple years ago that looked at how almost everyone that won Executive of the Year in the NFL was fired soon after. One potential reason why: the award went to teams who outperformed expectations, and teams often outperform expectations because they get lucky or do something unsustainable. The award then raises the team’s expectations, and then they fire the executive when they regress back to the mean.
This warrants further research in the Premier League, but I think the reasoning here is quite similar. Maybe not quite for Amorim and Maresca, but they both lost their jobs after a downturn in results and a public falling-out with the front office.
So, how can we identify three managers who aren’t inevitably going to come crashing back to Earth?
3. Daniel Farke, Leeds United
I am aware that approximately zero people who read this column will agree with me. But hear me out: all that a manager really has control over is the chances their team create and concede. Whether the goalkeeper makes a save or the forward converts the header, that’s mostly divorced from whatever tactics and patterns and player interactions led to the shot in the first place.
And yes, Leeds are currently in 16th place. But through 21 games, they have a roughly even xG differential — good enough for 11th-best in the league. And unlike Burnley and Sunderland, Leeds really didn’t spend big this past summer. Wage estimates have them as a bottom-three payroll team, and Transfermarkt estimates them as the second-least valuable squad in the league.
Despite their performance in the Championship last season, Leeds have relegation-level talent, and they’re performing like a borderline top-half-of-the-table team. Sunderland and Burnley, meanwhile, are 20th and 19th in xGD.
Not only that, Farke actively made a tactical change midway through the season that directly coincided with an uptick in his team’s play. Despite their place in the table, Leeds are outperforming their resources in a very real way, and their manager made a very real change that had a very real effect on their performances. Come the end of the season, I don’t think this choice is going to look as strange as it does right now.
2. Mikel Arteta, Arsenal
Arsenal are the best team in the world right now. They just are — they never give up goals and they seemingly go three deep at every position. They spent €63.5 million on a center forward who has been a total flop (Viktor Gyökeres), and it hasn’t mattered at all. All of their star players have been out for significant periods of time due to injury and, again, it hasn’t mattered at all.
It’s no guarantee that they win the league — even if they maintain their current performance level. But they’re also the favorites to win the Premier League and the Champions League. You can’t ask for more than that.
While this was a smartly and patiently and expensively built team that is peaking as all of its core players enter their peak years, Arteta deserves a ton of credit for the unique model of play he’s landed on. He’s helped create one of the better defensive teams we’ve ever seen through an approach that limits goals both by dominating possession and by being equally comfortable defending in their own penalty area. That’s a rare combination, and it’s deadly when combined with a level of set-piece execution we’ve rarely, if ever, seen before.
It all just makes so much sense together: there’s enough offensive skill to chase games when need be, but the dominant defense makes the set piece goals especially valuable since Arsenal don’t need to score as much. And those burly physical defenders who are so hard to score against? They double as dominant set-piece threats.
Set pieces have been the sport’s most undervalued tactical resource, and Arteta’s Arsenal are showing us what happens when one of the richest and most talented teams in the world takes full advantage.
1. Keith Andrews, Brentford
If this were any club other than Brentford, Andrews would be No. 1 with a bullet. This team lost their two best strikers this summer, and they lost the coach who seemingly guided them out of the Championship and into Premier League stability when Thomas Frank went to Tottenham. You’ll never believe what happened next: There are 17 games remaining, and if the season ended today, Brentford would qualify for the Champions League this season.
The reason I’m a little uncertain of the choice here is that we know Brentford are one of the most data-driven clubs in the world, and their manager might have less influence on proceedings than any other in the league does. But I think that says more about what the modern role of the manager is than anything about Andrews himself. The modern manager (or head coach, as teams are increasingly opting for as the title) needs to work with an ever-churning collection of players, figure out the best way to arrange them on the field, and be OK with constant communication and direction from people who aren’t actually soccer coaches. Hasn’t Andrews done all of that?
It’s not just that Brentford are in fifth, either. Per FBref’s estimates, they have the smallest wage bill in the league, and they have a plus-0.2 xG differential per game — currently eighth best in the league and competitive with the three teams above them. It’s really incredible how Brentford continue to lose their best attackers, year after year, and never get worse. Andrews is my choice for manager of the season because this year, they got better.
Player of the Season
With the decline of open-play scoring in the Premier League this season, we’ve also seen a decline in individual attacking performance. There’s been a grand total of one world-class attacker in the Premier League this year, which is bizarre but also kind of fun, as it opens things up in the POTY conversation for defenders, midfielders, and maybe even goalkeepers?
But the longer I looked at this, I started to realize that there are only two players who really seem to warrant the POTY designation through the first half of the season. And so, I’m still selecting a top three, but consider No. 3 to be more of a symbolic choice.
3. Gabriel Magalhães, center back, Arsenal
I’m a little less high on this pick than I used to be because I view center backs like the NFL views offensive linemen. The penalty for making a mistake is so massive that it’s really hard to overcome the negative value you create by getting called for holding or, say, falling down and letting Newcastle’s Nick Woltemade have a free header from three yards our or, I don’t know, passing the ball to Bournemouth’s Evanilson while you’re under no pressure and he’s standing directly in front of an empty goal and also playing for the other team.
Gabriel did both of those things, but then he also went on and scored goals for himself in both of those games. Now, he’s only scored three goals this season, but he has two more assists and is probably the single most important figure in Arsenal’s single most important strength: their set piece goal-scoring. On top of that, he’s one of the starting center backs in one of the most dominant defenses of the modern era. Arsenal have allowed 14 goals this season and half of them came in the handful of matches Gabriel has missed.
2. Declan Rice, midfielder Arsenal
You don’t need stats to understand how good Rice is — just watch a game. He’s the most physically dominant English midfielder since … no, yeah, I’m just gonna stop it there. He’s the most physically dominant English midfielder ever. He covers a ton of space, his ball striking shrinks the field, his ball carrying makes it seem like Baltimore Ravens Running Back Derrick Henry wandered onto a soccer field, and c’mon. He just looks freaking huge out there.
It’s funny. According to FBref, the most similar player to him is PSG’s João Neves. Neves was the starting defensive midfielder for the best team in the world last season. He’s fantastic, and Rice does everything he does while also being much bigger than him.
But here are some stats just to confirm what you see every weekend. The company Gradient Spots grades every action by every player in the Premier League each weekend, across a number of categories, and then they normalize the grades on a 0-100 scale. The six major ones, to my mind, are passing, shooting, crossing, carrying, defending carries, and making challenges. And there is only one player in the league who grades out at a 75 or better in all six categories:
Rice is the best all-around midfielder in the world, and I don’t think there’s really even an argument for anybody else.
1. Erling Haaland, center forward, Manchester City
Goals win soccer games, and Golden Boot-leader Haaland has twice as many goals as all but one other player in the Premier League. Not only that, Haaland also has nearly twice as many expected goals as any player in the Premier League.
I frequently find myself leaving Haaland’s entries brief in exercises like this, but I think that’s sort of the point: He doesn’t do much else, but he does the most important thing in soccer twice as well as almost anyone else in England. What more do you need me to say?
Sports
US figure skating power couple makes history with record breaking seventh national championship
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U.S. figure skating stars Madison Chock and Evan Bates made history on Saturday with their record-setting seventh U.S. Figure Skating title in their final competition before the Milan Cortina Olympics.
The three-time reigning world champions, performing a flamenco-style dance to a version of the Rolling Stones hit “Paint It Black” from the dystopian sci-fi Western show “Westworld,” produced a season-best free skate and finished with 228.87 points.
“The feeling that we got from the audience today was unlike anything I’ve ever felt before,” Chock said.
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Madison Chock and Evan Bates of United States perform during ISU World Figure Skating Championships – Boston, at TD Garden, on March 28, 2025 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Jurij Kodrun – International Skating Union/International Skating Union via Getty Images)
They’ll be the heavy favorites to win gold next month in Italy.
“I felt so much love and joy,” Chock continued, “and I’m so grateful for this moment.”
U.S. Figure Skating will announce its selections on Sunday.
Emilea Zingas and Vadym Kolesnik were second with 213.65 points and Christina Carreira and Anthony Ponomarenko were third with 206.95, making those two pairs the likely choices to join Chock and Bates on the American squad for the upcoming Winter Games.
The men’s medals also were to be decided on Saturday, though two-time world champion Ilia Malinin had built such a lead after his short program that the self-styled “Quad God” would have to stumble mightily to miss out on a fourth consecutive title.
The U.S. also has qualified the maximum of three men’s spots for the Winter Games, and competition is tight between second-place Tomoko Hiwatashi, fan favorite Jason Brown, Andrew Torgashev and Maxim Naumov to round out the nationals podium.
The last time Chock and Bates competed in the Olympics in 2022 in Beijing, they watched their gold initially go to an opponent who was later disqualified for doping violations.
Chock and Bates initially had to settle for team silver with their American teammates on the podium at the 2022 Beijing Olympics. Team Russia and Kamila Valieva, who was 15 at the time, stood above them with their gold medals.
It wasn’t until the end of January 2024, when the Court of Arbitration for Sport (CAS) found Valieva guilty of an anti-doping rule violation, when Chock, Bates and the U.S. were declared the rightful 2022 gold medalists.
UN URGES COUNTRIES TO HONOR TRUCE DURING WINTER OLYMPICS, NOT DENY VISAS TO ANY NATION’S ATHLETES
Madison Chock and Evan Bates compete in championship ice dance at the U.S. figure skating championships Saturday, Jan. 27, 2024, in Columbus, Ohio. (AP Photo/Sue Ogrocki)
Valieva tested positive for trimetazidine, a banned substance, during an anti-doping test at the Russian Figure Skating Championships in December 2021. She was suspended for four years and stripped of all competitive results since that date.
Chock and Bates spoke about what their message to Valieva would be today during an interview at the U.S. Olympic & Paralympic Committee media summit in October.
“It’s hard to, I think, imagine what a 15-year-old has gone through and under that kind of situation,” Bates said. “And I know how stressful it is, being an elite athlete as an adult, as a 36-year-old. And I think that grace should be given to humans across the board. And we can never really know the full situation, at least from our point of view. … I genuinely don’t know what I would say to her.”
Chock added, “I would just wish her well like as I would. I think life is short. And, at the end of the day, we’re all human just going through our own human experience together. And regardless of what someone has or hasn’t done and how it has affected you, I think it’s important to remember we’re humans as a collective, and we’re all here for this, our one moment on earth, at the same time. And I just wish people to have healthy, happy lives, full of people that love them.”
Chock and Bates had to wait more than two years after the initial Olympics to get their rightful gold medals, and they were finally presented with them during a ceremony at the Paris Olympics last summer.
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Madison Chock and Evan Bates of the USA perform in the Gala Exhibition during the ISU Grand Prix of Figure Skating Final Nagoya at IG Arena on December 07, 2025 in Nagoya, Japan. (Atsushi Tomura – International Skating Union/International Skating Union via Getty Images)
Chock, Bates and teammates Karen Chen, Nathan Chen, Zachary Donohue, Brandon Frazier, Madison Hubbell, Alexa Knierim and Vincent Zhou were given a specialized gold medal ceremony to receive the medals in front of more than 13,000 fans.
Chock and Bates became the first ice dancers to win three consecutive world championships in nearly three decades in March when they defeated Canadian rivals Piper Gilles and Paul Poirier.
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
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LONDON — The previous Tottenham Hotspur head coach survived last season by having a trophy to play for. So where does Thomas Frank turn to now for inspiration?
Spurs’ 2-1 home defeat to Aston Villa ended their FA Cup campaign at the earliest possible opportunity. They are already out of the Carabao Cup and languish 14th in the Premier League. They still harbor hopes of reaching the UEFA Champions League knockout rounds, but not even the most optimistic Tottenham fan would give them a chance of winning Europe’s toughest club competition.
Frank will consequently feel very exposed right now. Ange Postecoglou had the shield of a Europa League campaign to bat away some of the mounting criticism of his tenure. It ultimately ended in glory, too, as Spurs won their first trophy in 17 years by lifting the Europa League in May. But his team’s underlying underperformance over such a long period of time still led to a change in the dugout.
There are deep-rooted problems that Frank has inherited: an imbalanced squad short on quality, an impatient fan base and a porous defense. The problem is, it is getting harder to see any signs of progress in resolving them.
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Tottenham’s early-season defensive resilience and set-piece prowess has dissipated. Villa eased into a 2-0 halftime lead here through goals from Emi Buendia and Donyell Malen, both well-worked but given undue space and time to play.
Their attack continues to look disjointed, even if Spurs rallied after the break. Wilson Odobert halved the deficit with a low drive on 54 minutes and although they found some spirit and intensity, Spurs ended with an expected goals figure of 0.55. This was not as bad as some of the toothless performances Frank has presided over, but nevertheless, they couldn’t consistently threaten Villa’s goal.
The modicum of second-half improvement can be interpreted two ways: It was either the dying embers of a failed regime or a flash of hope that Frank can elicit a longer-lasting uptick.
The Tottenham hierarchy now faces a test of nerve. Premier League games against West Ham United and Burnley come next. Both teams are currently in the bottom three. Failure to win either of those games would leave Frank’s future hanging by a thread.
There was a nod to the past here with Spurs’ matchday squad and program commemorating the 125-year anniversary of their first FA Cup win in 1901. Frank often talks about the future being brighter, when long-term absentees such as striker Dominic Solanke — who returned for the final seven minutes here after ankle surgery — attacker Dejan Kulusevski and midfielder James Maddison return to a side more steeped in his ideas.
Looking at the past and future is one thing, but the present is becoming a major problem. Spurs fans would be forgiven for thinking their season is petering out halfway through.
“Of course it is disappointing,” said Frank. “We are all hurt. There’s nothing we want to do more than to get through to the next round, no matter who we face. We played at home, we had a good opportunity.
“Unfortunately, we couldn’t go through. We went with full strength in terms of how we could do it. We all look back at the game and think we could do better in the first half, second half.”
The full-time fracas involving Villa striker Ollie Watkins, Spurs midfielder João Palhinha and a raft of other players was the sort of dust-up that often occurs at the end of a game, but cynics would put it alongside the loss of composure and discipline that is threatening to become a concerning trait under Frank. Perhaps that was why Frank took the unusual step of blaming Watkins, who went to acknowledge the Villa fans while very close to Palhinha.
“Of course, it is all about keeping a cool head,” he said. “The players gave everything out there, losing a tight game, the season is not going perfect and I think Ollie is very provoking in the way he’s going down to celebrate in front of the Villa fans.
“He is just walking into João and he could just easily walk around. Everyone who has a been of a competitive nature, it is difficult, that can trigger things.”
It can, but Spurs have been triggered by a lot lately, whether it is clashing with fans at Bournemouth in midweek or Djed Spence and Micky van de Ven appearing to snub Frank at full time of their defeat to Chelsea in November. Cristian Romero was suspended here after a red card against Liverpool, having received an extra game ban for “acting improperly by failing to leave the field of play promptly” following last month’s red card against Liverpool.
It all adds to a concerning wider picture. When Spurs sacked Postecoglou, a line from their accompanying club statement read: “It is crucial that we are able to compete on multiple fronts and believe a change of approach will give us the strongest chance for the coming season and beyond.”
That belief is being tested to the limit now.
The turning of the calendar used to mark the demarcation between nonconference and conference play. With the expansion of conference size and a corresponding increase in the number of conference games, that has changed in some leagues — most notably the Big Ten and Big East, where the majority of teams have already played four or five games against league opponents.
But, for the most part, the meat and potatoes of the 2025-26 men’s college basketball season has just gotten underway, with contenders looking to separate themselves from pretenders over the next couple of weeks.
Fortunately, teams are testing themselves more and more in nonconference play than in years past, so we have a better idea of which teams are for real and which could stumble against stiffer competition. According to ESPN Research, a record-setting 45 games between ranked opponents took place in the first two months of the season.
As we enter the final two months before Selection Sunday, how would we handicap the conference races in each of the power conferences? Let’s run through the favorites to win each of the five high-major conferences based on ESPN’s BPI projections — and their biggest threats.
Jump to: ACC | Big East | Big Ten | Big 12 | SEC
ACC
Favorite: Duke Blue Devils (91.5%)
Despite being comfortably the best team in the ACC last season, the Blue Devils needed to beat North Carolina in Chapel Hill on the final day of the regular season to clinch the outright title. The bottom half of the league was so poor that the top three teams — Duke, Clemson and Louisville — were able to stockpile wins and compile gaudy records, taking it down to the wire for the conference crown.
Duke isn’t as good as it was last season, but it could win the conference by more games than one because of the parity and improved depth across the ACC. BPI gives the Blue Devils by far the best chance of winning the regular-season title, after Jon Scheyer’s club took a big step by winning at Louisville on Tuesday.
Duke has the most productive player in college basketball in Cameron Boozer, a slew of perimeter shotmakers surrounding him, depth and a blossoming point guard in Caleb Foster. The Blue Devils might not be national title favorites like a year ago, but they’re still the class of the ACC.
Biggest threats
North Carolina Tar Heels
Louisville Cardinals
Virginia Cavaliers
Part of the reason Duke’s status as league favorite is so strong is the likely next three teams in the pecking order have already lost ACC games. North Carolina lost by 14 at SMU on Saturday, Louisville has dropped two in a row with Mikel Brown Jr. sidelined, and Virginia fell in three overtimes to Virginia Tech on New Year’s Eve.
Carolina looked like the biggest threat to Duke prior to the SMU loss; Caleb Wilson has been sensational and he and Henri Veesaar form one of the more potent frontcourt duos in the country. Louisville just isn’t the same without Brown, and it’s unclear when he will be back in the fold. At full strength, the Cardinals’ backcourt and elite shooting ability give them a chance against anyone in America.
Virginia is the sleeper. Ryan Odom’s team is deep, experienced, big and efficient on the offensive end. The Cavaliers face Duke, Carolina and Louisville only once each, but they have to play the Blue Devils and Cardinals on the road.
And although Clemson is 3-0 in ACC play with the second-best chance to win the league, according to BPI, the Tigers likely lack the offensive firepower to keep pace and don’t get either Duke or Carolina at Littlejohn Coliseum.
Big East
Favorite: UConn Huskies (88.1%)
In terms of depth, the Big East is the worst of the five high-major conferences this season, but UConn is a clear-cut national title contender and the heavy favorite to win the regular-season title. If anything, BPI’s 88.1% projection is arguably a low estimate.
The Huskies have just one loss on the season: back in mid-November against Arizona, when Tarris Reed Jr. and Braylon Mullins were both sidelined with injuries. Prior to Wednesday’s overtime win over Providence, UConn had barely been tested in conference play, winning its first four games by an average of 19.0 points. The Huskies are an elite defensive unit, ranking fifth nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency and in the top 10 for both 2-point defense and 3-point defense.
In Mullins, Solo Ball and Alex Karaban, Dan Hurley has three high-level shotmakers, and Reed is a double-double machine and the anchor down low.
Biggest threats
Likely none, but …
There doesn’t seem to be a team consistent enough to threaten UConn over the course of a full 20-game Big East schedule. St. John’s was expected to go toe-to-toe with the Huskies after winning the regular-season championship last season, but the Red Storm already suffered a home loss to Providence and have had point guard and defensive issues all season.
Villanova and Seton Hall have been the surprise packages so far this season, with the Wildcats having the edge due to their road win over the Pirates just before Christmas. Over the next couple of weeks, Villanova has road games at Marquette and Providence and will play both St. John’s and UConn — if the Wildcats come out the other side within a game of the Huskies, we can revisit their title bona fides. A home loss to Creighton on Wednesday takes some of the steam out of Kevin Willard’s team, though. And Seton Hall has the aforementioned home loss to Nova plus needed a last-second putback to beat Creighton at home, though the Pirates do get UConn at home next Tuesday to make a statement.
Had Creighton not blown a big second-half lead at Seton Hall, the Bluejays might have loomed as a bigger threat.
Big Ten
Favorite: Michigan Wolverines (67.5%)
Analytically, Michigan is the best team in the country, ranking No. 1 at KenPom, in BPI and at BartTorvik.com. The Wolverines are No. 1 in the NET and lead the country in scoring margin, with Tuesday’s two-point win over Penn State only the second time they have failed to win by at least 25 points since Nov. 14.
Dusty May has the nation’s best defense, a physically dominant group that simply overpowers teams with its size, length and ability to get up and down the floor. Yaxel Lendeborg is an All-American, and Morez Johnson Jr. and Aday Mara have been among the most efficient frontcourt players in the country at both ends of the floor. The Wolverines’ performance at the Players Era Festival in Las Vegas was one of the best three-game stretches we’ve ever seen in the regular season.
With all that said, BPI gives them only a 67.5% chance to win the Big Ten regular-season title — with Purdue their biggest competition.
Biggest threat
Purdue entered the season ranked No. 1 in preseason polls, with National Player of the Year favorite Braden Smith and All-American Trey Kaufman-Renn forming the best inside-outside combo in the country on paper. A win at Alabama and a 30-point victory over Texas Tech seemed to cement Matt Painter’s team as a national championship favorite, but a stunning 23-point loss to Iowa State on Dec. 6 dropped the Boilermakers down a tier.
They’re still ranked in the top six in all efficiency-based metrics and have the best offense in the country, so don’t count them out. Moreover, they get Michigan, Michigan State and Illinois all in West Lafayette, Indiana.
Nebraska has been the surprise of the Big Ten. Illinois and Michigan State are threats to make deep runs in March, but with each team having already lost to the Cornhuskers, they’re behind the chasing pack.
Big 12
Favorite: Arizona Wildcats (46.2%)
The most loaded conference title race belongs to the Big 12, with four teams — Arizona, Iowa State, Houston and BYU — all ranked in the top 10 nationally, with a combined 58-2 record.
With Arizona ranked No. 1 in the latest AP Top 25 and edging ahead of Iowa State in both KenPom and the BPI, the Wildcats are the narrow favorites. Unsurprisingly, BPI gives them less than a 50% chance to end the season as the regular-season champs, coming in at 46.2% with Iowa State just behind at 43.2%.
Arizona owns the best résumé in the country — No. 1 in ESPN’s strength of record — with wins over UConn, Florida, Alabama, UCLA, Auburn and San Diego State. The first four of those wins came away from home, too. The Wildcats are ranked inside the top 10 at both ends of the floor and have incredible depth and balance up front and in the backcourt.
It’s worth noting that Tommy Lloyd’s team faces Iowa State only once, and that game is in Tucson. The Wildcats play Houston on the road and have BYU both home and away.
Biggest threats
Iowa State Cyclones
Houston Cougars
BYU Cougars
Iowa State is one of just six unbeaten teams left in college basketball, and the Cyclones own perhaps the most impressive singular win of the season, going to West Lafayette and beating then-undefeated Purdue by 23 points. They also went 3-0 at the Players Era Festival and held serve against in-state rival Iowa. Joshua Jefferson has been a breakout star and is playing like an All-American, Milan Momcilovic has a case as the best shooter in the country, and Tamin Lipsey has been playing like Tamin Lipsey.
Houston hasn’t quite hit its stride yet, but the Cougars are still 14-1 with a top-10 defense. It’s impossible to count out a Kelvin Sampson-coached team that has one of the best backcourts in the country in star freshman Kingston Flemings and veterans Milos Uzan and Emanuel Sharp. Houston plays each of the other three top contenders once apiece but faces BYU and Iowa State on the road.
BYU has as talented and explosive a trio as there is in college basketball in AJ Dybantsa, Richie Saunders and Robert Wright III. All three can take over a game, and Dybantsa is a viable threat to Cameron Boozer in the National Player of the Year race. Arizona, Houston and Iowa State all have to go to the Marriott Center.
SEC
Favorite: Vanderbilt Commodores (52.9%)
The pecking order is likely to shift the most in the SEC over the next couple of months, but after Vanderbilt’s 96-90 win over Alabama on Wednesday, the Commodores — picked 11th in the preseason conference poll — have established themselves as the favorites moving forward.
Mark Byington’s team has been a metrics darling all season, opening the season ranked in the top 20 at KenPom and now in the top five at both KenPom and BartTorvik.com. Wednesday’s win was Vandy’s first statement win of the season, to go along with victories over Saint Mary’s, SMU and UCF. Tyler Tanner is playing like a legitimate All-American, and Duke Miles has been one of the best transfer portal pickups in the country. The Commodores are a terrific offensive team, ranking in the top 10 in scoring offense and in the top five in adjusted offensive efficiency.
In terms of schedule, it’s worth noting they face Florida only once and it’s in Nashville. They play Tennessee home and away and have to go to Arkansas.
Biggest threats
Florida Gators
Arkansas Razorbacks
Alabama Crimson Tide
Tennessee Volunteers
In any given week, the biggest threat to Vanderbilt’s status seemingly changes two or three times. Most metrics, including BPI, point to Florida as the second-best team in the SEC — but the Gators opened SEC play with a loss at Missouri and have been inconsistent against good teams all season. The reigning national champs have an elite frontcourt, but the portal backcourt of Boogie Fland and Xaivian Lee is still a work in progress.
There might not be a guard in college basketball playing better than Darius Acuff Jr. right now, and as a result, Arkansas looks like the real deal. The Razorbacks also opened SEC play with a win over Tennessee and will host Vanderbilt later this month.
Alabama has a terrific offense and one of the most explosive players in the country in Labaron Philon Jr., but the defense has been poor, allowing an average of 93.5 points in losses to Purdue, Gonzaga, Arizona and Vanderbilt.
Tennessee seems like a stretch, despite BPI giving the Vols a 16.3% chance of winning the league. They are 4-4 in their past eight games and still have to go to Florida and Alabama in the next two weeks.
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