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Price rises set to cool in reprieve for households after September peak

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Price rises set to cool in reprieve for households after September peak



Price rises could be cooling off across the UK after inflation peaked in September, offering some relief to households, experts believe.

Economists think the rate of Consumer Prices Index (CPI) inflation will have fallen in October, when official statistics are published on Wednesday.

It comes after the Bank of England said last week that it thinks inflation has “peaked” and will begin to come down.

CPI came in at 3.8% in September, remaining at the same level as both July and August, the latest data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed.

Some economists are expecting CPI to fall to 3.5% in October.

Elevated food and drink inflation has helped put pressure on the overall rate this year, with households seeing steep rises particularly for items such as chocolate, coffee, cheese and eggs.

However, the cost of food and non-alcoholic drinks fell between August and September, the first monthly decline since May last year.

Experts think food price inflation could continue to ease in October.

Furthermore, energy costs are expected to be an important factor putting downward pressure on the overall inflation rate.

Ofgem raised the energy price cap by 2% in October, but this is significantly less than the 9.6% hike last year, meaning energy price inflation is set to fall.

Jack Meaning, chief UK economist for Barclays, said he thinks September “represented the peak of the inflation hump” and that CPI will fall to 3.5% in October.

Robert Wood and Elliott Jordan-Doak, UK economists for Pantheon Macroeconomics, also said they were forecasting inflation to ease to 3.5%, driven by energy costs.

But they also cautioned over a hike in university tuition fees, particularly for international students, putting upward pressure on inflation last month.

Sanjay Raja, chief UK economist for Deutsche Bank, predicts a smaller fall in overall inflation to 3.7% in October.

But he said that the upcoming autumn Budget was likely to mark the “next most important inflation forecast update”, with the potential for tax rises pushing down on inflation.

“Speculation around lower energy bills, indexation costs, duties and food prices remain rife,” Mr Raja wrote in a research note.

“We expect the Chancellor to push through some modest measures to pull down on prices come November 26.

“This will give us a good sense of where 2026 inflation will land.”



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FPI Inflows Hit Rs 19,675 Cr In First 15 Days Of Feb On US-India Trade Boost

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FPI Inflows Hit Rs 19,675 Cr In First 15 Days Of Feb On US-India Trade Boost


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Foreign Portfolio Investors put Rs 19,675 crore into Indian equities in early February, ending three months of selling amid global cues and a US-India trade pact.

US-India trade deal hopes lift FPI inflows to Rs 19,675 cr in early Feb

US-India trade deal hopes lift FPI inflows to Rs 19,675 cr in early Feb

Foreign Portfolio Investors Reverse Trend With Rs 19,675 Crore February Buying: Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) made a notable comeback in early February, infusing Rs 19,675 crore into Indian equities during the first half of the month, aided by improving global conditions and the US-India trade agreement.

This marks a clear shift after three consecutive months of net selling. Depository data shows FPIs withdrew Rs 35,962 crore in January, Rs 22,611 crore in December, and Rs 3,765 crore in November.

Even with the renewed buying in February, the broader trend for 2025 remains negative. So far this year, foreign investors have pulled out a net Rs 1.66 lakh crore (USD 18.9 billion) from Indian equities, making it one of the weakest periods for overseas inflows in recent times. Currency volatility, global trade tensions, concerns over potential US tariffs, and elevated valuations had weighed heavily on flows earlier.

Global Cues And Domestic Stability Support Recovery

Himanshu Srivastava, Principal Manager–Research at Morningstar Investment Research India, as quoted by PTI, said the latest inflows were largely driven by easing global macro pressures. Softer US inflation data improved expectations around the interest rate cycle, helping stabilise bond yields and the US dollar. This, in turn, enhanced investor appetite for emerging markets such as India.

On the domestic front, stable inflation, resilient macro indicators, and corporate earnings largely in line with expectations strengthened confidence in India’s economic trajectory, he noted.

Vaqarjaved Khan, Senior Fundamental Analyst at Angel One, also attributed the renewed interest to the US-India trade pact, the growth-oriented Union Budget 2026, easing global trade uncertainties, and steady domestic interest rates.

Volatility Persists Despite Net Buying Days

FPIs were net buyers in seven out of eleven trading sessions in February up to the 13th, turning sellers on four occasions. However, cumulative data indicates a net equity outflow of ₹1,374 crore so far this month.

The divergence was largely due to a sharp sell-off of Rs 7,395 crore on February 13, when the Nifty dropped 336 points. The period also witnessed substantial selling in IT stocks amid the so-called “Anthropic shock.” VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Investments, said as quoted by PTI, foreign investors likely reduced exposure to IT stocks aggressively in the cash market, as the IT index fell 8.2 percent in the week ended February 13.

(With PTI Inputs)

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Global cues, AI disruption fears to steer markets this week: Analysts – The Times of India

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Global cues, AI disruption fears to steer markets this week: Analysts – The Times of India


Macroeconomic data, global geopolitical developments and rising concerns over AI-related disruptions are likely to dictate stock market sentiment in the coming week, analysts said, even as investors remain cautious amid persistent volatility.Trading activity of foreign investors and movements in the domestic currency are also expected to influence market direction.

Focus on US data, fed outlook and AI risks

“In the near term, with tariff-related concerns easing and the domestic earnings season drawing to a close on a mixed trend, market focus will hinge largely on global cues, including the US labour data and shifting expectations surrounding the US Fed’s policy path”, Vinod Nair, head of research at Geojit Investments Ltd, said, as quoted by news agency PTI.“However, the overall sentiment is likely to remain cautious as investors monitor global AI-driven disruptions and geopolitical risks, while improved valuations and constructive GDP forecasts may help sustain FII inflows”, Nair added.He added that with IT and metals facing persistent structural and external headwinds, market leadership may rotate towards domestically oriented sectors such as banking, automobiles and select consumption-driven segments. However, broader indices are expected to remain range-bound until clearer macroeconomic and policy signals emerge.Analysts said investors will also watch the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), scheduled for release on Thursday, for cues on the US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy outlook.

Inflation, PMI and external data in spotlight

Ajit Mishra, SVP, research at Religare Broking Ltd, said markets will track wholesale price index (WPI) inflation and balance of trade data for signals on price trends and external sector dynamics.“High-frequency indicators due include HSBC flash PMI readings for manufacturing, services, and composite, along with bank loan growth and foreign exchange reserves data.“These releases will be evaluated for confirmation of growth momentum amid volatile global cues and continued repricing in technology stocks,” he said, as per PTI.Strong US jobs data has already reduced expectations of near-term Federal Reserve rate cuts, pressuring global risk assets and contributing to domestic market weakness, Mishra added.

Benchmarks end lower amid tech selloff

On a weekly basis, the 30-share BSE Sensex slumped 953.64 points, or 1.14 per cent, while the NSE Nifty dropped 222.6 points, or 0.86 per cent.Both indices ended the week on a negative note as a global selloff in technology stocks and concerns over artificial intelligence-led disruptions weighed on sentiment.On Friday alone, the Sensex tumbled 1,048.16 points to close at 82,626.76, while the Nifty plunged 336.10 points to settle at 25,471.10 amid a broad-based selloff, particularly in metal, IT and commodity stocks.“The Nifty IT index touched a 10-month low during the session before closing 1.4 per cent lower… The sector continues to face headwinds amid rising concerns that rapid AI advancements could disrupt traditional service models and weigh on future revenue visibility,” Siddhartha Khemka of Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd said, as per PTI.Metal stocks also saw profit-booking amid a stronger dollar index and reports that Russia may consider re-entering the US-dollar settlement system, raising concerns over weaker realisations for metal companies, Nair said.The broader market remained under pressure, with the BSE SmallCap Select Index falling 1.90 per cent and the MidCap Select Index slipping 1.19 per cent.

Rupee, FII flows and global markets

The rupee consolidated in a narrow range and settled 5 paise lower at 90.66 against the US dollar on Friday.Foreign institutional investors bought equities worth Rs 108.42 crore on Thursday, while domestic institutional investors were also net buyers of Rs 276.85 crore, according to exchange data.Analysts noted that while the previous week saw support from favourable developments in the India-US trade deal and renewed FII inflows, sentiment turned cautious following escalating concerns over AI-led disruptions and a global technology selloff.Geopolitical tensions and continued repricing in technology stocks have increased sectoral volatility, prompting widespread selling pressure.Market experts said broader indices are likely to stay range-bound until clearer macroeconomic signals and policy clarity emerge, with global cues continuing to dominate investor sentiment in the near term.



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From first salary to first investment — Why young Indians are choosing gold

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From first salary to first investment — Why young Indians are choosing gold


New Delhi: Gold continues to remain the most trusted investment option among young Indians, even as access to financial products like mutual funds, stocks, and cryptocurrencies expands, according to a recent consumer survey.

The Smytten PulseAI survey, conducted among 5,000 consumers aged 18–39, found that 62 percent of respondents chose gold as their preferred investment, highlighting the metal’s enduring appeal among Gen Z and Millennials.

When asked how they would invest Rs 25,000, about 61.9 percent said they would choose gold, far ahead of mutual funds (16.6 percent), fixed deposits (13 percent), stocks (6.6 percent), and crypto (1.9 percent), the survey showed.

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The findings also indicate that gold buying is becoming more personal and investment-driven rather than tradition-led. Around 66.7 percent of respondents said their gold purchases were primarily their own decision, reflecting a shift in mindset among younger investors.

Another notable trend is the move toward smaller and more frequent purchases. Nearly 62 percent of recent gold purchases were below 5 grams, suggesting that younger buyers are entering the market gradually instead of making large, occasional purchases.

Gold’s appeal becomes even stronger during uncertain economic conditions. The survey found that 65.7 percent of respondents consider gold the safest investment option compared with bank savings, mutual funds, or equities.

For many young earners, gold is no longer bought only for weddings or family occasions. Nearly 24 percent said their first gold purchase was linked to receiving their first salary, while 23.9 percent bought gold as an investment decision, signalling changing motivations behind gold ownership.

Overall, the survey highlights that while investment behaviour among young Indians is evolving, gold continues to play a central role as a trusted store of value and financial safety net.



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